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[Project Cair] - Part 12 "Between Two Points"
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Baeshur Olgon, Deputy Administration Envoy to the Greater Galactic Executive Organization, or GGEO, wiped the sweat from his brow. It was a hot day on the Congressional Pad, their Administrative section of the broader Platform. He took the footpath from his house in the Congressional Cluster — the residences of high-ranking congressional personnel — bringing him along the edge of the Pad, beyond which stretched the beautiful vista of a beautiful blue-gray sky. Beneath them he could see the dizzying, dancing lines of vehicles as they zipped past each other in the air with impossible precision. It was sweltering, but a determined breeze provided some relief and Baeshur welcomed it’s cooling touch on his cheek. Altogether, the all-white surface of the Platform reflected so much light and heat he felt as though he were in a tanning bay.
The walk from his home to the offices which encircled the Administration Senate Building took exactly twenty-two minutes. For most of his colleagues, many of whom were neighbors in the Cluster, this walk proved too wearisome. They opted instead to drive their top-of-the-line vehicles to work, which dramatically decreased travel time. Baeshur wasn’t certain his colleagues were not all, on some level, judgmental of the fact he preferred walking. When asked about his commuting choices, he would respond that it was a great way to preserve an appreciation for the magnificent beauty of the Platform and also afforded health benefits as well. For most, this defense of his actions ostensibly sufficed. But others, careless in their expressions, betrayed a hint of condescension. Time wasted was productivity lost, improvements not made, and policies not implemented. This was the pervasive meritocratic mindset of the workers on the Congressional Pad. Baeshur could sense they were critical of his wasting thirty-eight or so minutes every day walking to and from work. Part of him believed they were right.
Even so, he continued to walk to work, though he did not know why. He told others when asked it was for the view and the cardio, but in reality he didn’t really care much about either. The view was the view, he saw it every day. From the time his parents first took him as an infant onto their balcony to this present moment, the view from the Platform was all he knew. It had its moments, sure, when the aurora borealis played along the edge of the horizon or when the thin clouds dissipated and one could see for a hundred miles across the face of Earth. But for the most part, it didn’t even make an impression on him of late. As far as the cardio, Baeshur had never needed help from a walking commute in that regard. He spent two hours every day in his home gymnasium, with the help of his Administration-provided personal trainer.
What then drove him to continue his morning routine despite the social consequences? However slight they may be. He wracked his brain but couldn’t tell. Besides, he didn’t have time for such idle meditations, not anymore. Not forty-eight hours before, Baeshur had received the call informing him of his appointment as the Deputy Administrative Envoy. Today would be his first official day in the new role.
His stomach knotted with a familiar mixture of anxiety and anticipation, and he debated whether or not he would need to vomit before he rounded the Gardens and came in sight of the Congressional offices. He decided no, he didn’t know whether or not there were cameras about, and he could expect a fair amount of press from Administration news outlets regarding his sudden promotion. He was prepared for such an encounter, having spent several hours rehearsing his statement in response to the Administration’s decision to appoint him over Gaithe Mora, the Citizens’ favorite to secure the position. Under his breath, he whispered it again:
First of all, let me say that thank you to the Administration officials who believed I was the right person to carry the concerns of Earth to the GGEO. I believe that now, more than ever, the collaboration between our planet and the other systems within the Executive Organization must remain a top priority of the Administration. I believe the Administration has demonstrated their understanding of this necessity by appointing myself as Deputy Envoy. Next, I want to thank Minister Mora, with whom I worked diligently for three years in the Administration Department of Foreign Affairs. She is a wonderful, intelligent woman, a personal hero and mentor of mine, and I wish her the best of luck, I know some wonderful appointment is awaiting her as well. Thank you, I must go begin my first day on the job… Wait, does that make it sound like I wasn’t preparing these last two days?
Thank you, time to get to work!
As he recited the updated finale to his statement, he absentmindedly raised a fist. This motion was too publicly emphatic. Horrified, he resumed a sensible position as quick as he could. Surreptitiously, he attempted to see if anyone had observed the erratic movement. To his left there was a couple walking parallel to him. As he peeked, he saw them turn their heads away and chuckle to themselves. Brilliant
, he thought, internally flagellating himself for the indiscretion.
He wiped the sweat from his brow again with his eggshell-white, silk kerchief. The heat was an obstacle he had not anticipated, being appointed in the middle of a brutal summer. His mind, which assiduously predicted potential pitfalls and contingencies, had not put together his walking commute, the increased press and profile, and the heat. Sweat ran down his chest, drenching his three-thousand-admit undershirt. It ran down the sides of his torso from his armpits, which were drenching great circles of their own in the shirt. The most infuriating part for Baeshur was the fact he could not do anything to admit it, let alone address it. People do not touch their sides in the course of daily action/interaction, so to do so in order to wipe the salty rivulets tracing his sides would appear out of place.
“These people, Administration officials, clerks, everyone, everyone on the Congressional Pad keeps ledgers on everyone else,” Min. Mora had once told him. “Your behavior, your actions, your novelty, your countenance, your professional accomplishments, your personal decision, all of these aspects are accounted for. Speak too long during a group conversation, points off your ledger. Behave too obsequiously toward superiors or too fraternally with subordinates, your value drops.”
But Baeshur had already understood this, implicitly. He believed everyone on the Platform, to one degree or another, was aware of this reality. From his childhood as the son of a distant heir to the off-world industrial empire, to schooling at the Institute, to his career in the Administration, he always understood the need to conduct oneself appropriately at all times. As such, he did nothing to address the growing discomfort of his excess sweating. Wiping sweat from anywhere but his brow and, only under extreme circumstances, his neck, simply wouldn’t do.
From his house, the route took him up from the suspended residential Cluster onto the main thoroughfare which led directly to the center of the Congressional Offices. Though ultimately one the route was one long bridge, it divided into several footpaths, each of which provided their own special view. The one he took today was the northmost path, about six feet wide, which abutted the edge of the Platform and, on the other side, a hedgewall cultivated in such a way that it produced a likeness of the Platform itself as seen from above.
But before the Gardens, which occupied four circles of real estate upon the Congressional Pad, the paths merged again into a twenty-five foot wide boardwalk. Rows of kiosks and small stores flanked the sides, from which merchants of every type — human, alien, and machine — hawked their Congressional Pad™ license tchotchkes and trinkets. They were all baubles one would only buy to commemorate a visit to such a historic world landmark, and provided no real value as items themselves.
Baeshur drank it in with a certain contempt. He understood people wanted to commemorate their events with mementos, but the fact these souvenirs were being manufactured and provided by offworld companies and people disturbed him. He would rather they let Earthlings sell other Earthlings totems of the Administration Platform District. After all, it was Earthlings, humans, who designed the buildings so many people came to admire. Humans coalesced into a planetary government, survived the Collapse of Nature, and migrated into the land in the sky. Offworlders didn’t do it, so they shouldn’t be the only ones to profit off of the tourism those efforts generated.
Of course, he made an exception for the gyro-making robot which occupied the last kiosk on his left. On Fridays, when it wasn’t too hot or too cold, he would stop after work on his way home and watch the many-armed metal being shave the lamb, toast the pita, and drizzle the tzatziki. That company, whose name did not appear on their kiosk, had perfected the art of gyros down to a science. Even the mutton, grown as tissue without the lamb itself, was identical each and every time he had it. It was this sort of replicable perfection that human advancement had brought them.
Baeshur’s stomach growled as he walked past the kiosk, but he knew he couldn’t stop to eat. Kiosk food was a guilty pleasure of Administration officials and their legions of staffers alike. But since his promotion, Baeshur was held to an entirely different standard. He was to refine his tastes to an appropriate degree, befitting his new station. What’s more, Administration Envoys — especially envoys to the GGEO — were expected to reflect human excellence in every capacity, including personal health and wellness. As such caloric intake, hydration levels, activity levels, and so on were all monitored in real time by a small device attached to his ankle. He would be expected to eat only what was prepared by his Administration-provided nutritionist application.
Though he understood the need to maintain both physical and occupational excellence, the recent change had his stomach yearning for the savory forbidden gyros.
He was delivered from temptation by the approach of his assistant, Brecht.
“Brecht, I have said twice now to join me as I pass the Gardens
,” Baeshur chided. Brecht, a tall, slender cluster of neuroses, sighed at his own misbehavior.
“I apologize, Deputy Envoy. It was my mistake and I assure you it won’t happen again,” he sputtered.
Baeshur grabbed him by the arm and, perhaps demonstrating too much affection, walked with home toward the Congressional Offices.
“What does my morning look like?” asked Baeshur.
“Tardy…?” Brecht replied, obviously confused.
“The Envoy Group was supposed to meet with Ministers Thrael and Forsum and the Senior Vice Administrator this morning. They began fifteen minutes ago.”
Baeshur nearly fainted then and there. But, holding onto Brecht, he regained himself, after which rage filled him.
“Why didn’t you tell me?” he shouted.
“Sir, I left two voice messages and set a pop-up in your cruiser for this morning. Your house was on ‘Do Not Disturb’,” the thin assistant answered.
“I. Don’t. Drive.” Baeshur responded, gesturing around at the path on which they were walking. Brecht hit his forehead with his palm, in perhaps an over rehearsed expression of contrition.
Even so, Brecht was right, Baeshur should have known about the meeting. He had left his house on Do Not Disturb. He had wanted time without distraction to prepare for his first official day on the job.
“Oh no,” Baeshur exclaimed, running a hand through his thick hair. “Should we run? No. No, that would look desperate.”
“We’re fifteen minutes late already, with four-and-a-half minutes left before we get to the Offices. Another three for you to change.”
“There’s no time.”
“Sir, I must caution against attending the meeting with your current levels of perspiration,” Brecht added, wincing. He prided himself on being able to advise his superiors in the best way, even if it meant pointing out personal deficiencies.
“Alright, alright,” Baeshur said dismissively, desiring to move past the acknowledgement of his sweat. Though, for a moment, he looked at Brecht and noticed the assistant had not one drop of sweat on him despite wearing darker clothes. Bastard
“How do we proceed?” Brecht asked. Baeshur mulled it over for a moment.
“We’ll walk, but not too fast. Like this,” he answered, putting one foot in front of the other at a hurried pace, but without breaking into a run. “Come on!”
Brecht hurried after him, maintaining the appropriately servile distance behind his superior.
All told, the brisk walk to his office, the change of clothes, and the walk to the Envoy Group meeting took eleven and a half minutes. He arrived twenty-six and a half minutes late. As he wound his way through the traditional-style interior of the Offices, he twice blew past reporters seeking a statement about his new appointment. Finally, he ascended the stairs which rose beneath a massive crystal mobile of the galaxy, which sparkled in the warm light.
At the top, he spotted a private conversation between Min. Thrael and the Senior Vice Minister. The latter was looking in the distance and nodding as the former spoke close to his ear. Baeshur feared the meeting had already concluded. It would be an embarrassing incident, to be late on his first day, but chances were the Administration would not fire him. To do so would reflect poorly on their judgment to appoint him, and, as it was a purely internal
situation, the Citizenry did not have any knowledge of it. Still, this calculation did nothing to calm Baeshur’s nerves, and he could feel the first drop of sweat as it rolled from his armpit down his side.
“Ah, so how did you get notified of the cancellation?” bellowed the massive Senior Vice Minister, addressing the approaching Baeshur.
Baeshur’s mind froze at the question. The cancellation?
He racked his brain for something, anything, to avoid prolonging the silence into awkwardness. His face took on the aspect of surprised indignance.
“They didn’t inform you?” Baeshur asked, raising his eyebrows. His tone conveyed that his primary concern was the insolence of whomever was tasked with delivering the message, and not that he was unduly privileged with this information. Baeshur smiled inwardly, there was not even a hint of superiority in his voice. “I’m sure you’ve already made the appropriate inquiries into who was responsible for relaying that information.”
“Indeed, well at any rate I’m glad one of us was spared the waste of time,” the Senior Vice Administrator stated flatly. He looked in Baeshur’s eyes only rarely, and each time he looked away again quickly, as though looking at subordinates too long would dull the mind.
“Congratulations on your appointment, Deputy Envoy,” the superior concluded. “Minister Thrael.” He added to his interlocutor. With those words he continued on his way, with a stride that effortlessly combined both purpose and ease. Min. Thrael had returned a deferential nod to the Senior Vice Administrator’s valediction, and now turned himself toward the new Deputy Envoy.
“I must also extend a congratulations on the appointment,” Min. Thrael began, taking slow steps toward Baeshur. “And might I add it was well-deserved.”
Baeshur smiled, but kept it restrained. Exuberance was not appropriate, but polite gratitude hit the mark.
“Minister Thrael, you’re too kind,” he replied.
“I was hoping, Deputy Envoy, you might join me for a walking conversation. The meeting was cancelled, but I see no reason why a new Administration Official and an old Minister can’t get to know one another and discuss the pressing matters of the day.” Min. Thrael said this with a neutrality so well honed it became uncanny
Baeshur tried to read his expression, but couldn’t tell anything from it. These people are masters. I’m swimming with the big fish now.
It was obvious the Minister was testing him. It was Baeshur’s first official day in office, and Thrael had asked him to devote a non-trivial portion of his morning to an impromptu meeting. It was quite possible that acceptance would demonstrate a lack of preparation, that Baeshur was not the type of character to seize his first day with both hands and have wall to wall actions scheduled.
On the other hand, the Minister could be testing his obedience to informal authority. Though Min. Thrael held no official position above his within the Administration hierarchy — Ministry for Extragalactic Affairs and the Envoy Groups belonging to different departments — the senior experience and social position of Min. Thrael, in particular, was to be respected in all events. The Minister could be testing his sensitivity to these invisible rules which did — and must — shape the intra-Administration bureaucracy.
“For you, Minister, of course. Though I have an engagement with Minister Corri in an hour,” Baeshur replied, hoping to strike the appropriate balance.
“Excellent,” Min. Thrael replied, smiling his impressively neutral smile. “Perhaps we should move to a more private location?”
And so they walked off, Baeshur remaining a half-step behind the Minister. The former understood their route. It was a footpath which led outside of the Congressional Offices, and onto the covered balcony which encircled the Great Dome, providing a centralized and 360-degree view of the Congressional Pad. It had the added benefit of being completely free from listening devices, or perceptual technology of any sort. Administration officials would often take a walk on the balcony path when sensitive matters needed discussing.
As they reached the balcony proper and felt the warmth of sunlight-through-glass on their skin, the Minister turned to Baeshur.
“Do you read social media?” Min. Thrael asked, flattening his tie.
“Only as it pertains to my new position,” Baeshur replied, waving his hand dismissively. The Minister looked ahead, nodding. “Why do you ask?” Baeshur followed.
“I ask because I do read social media,” Min. Thrael replied. A silence followed, a silence as disturbingly indecipherable as the Minister’s face. Baeshur wracked his brain for the reason his companion would ask such a question, and provide such an answer to his own. What’s more, all the while Baeshur couldn’t help but feel as though Min. Thrael was being deliberately cryptic, like the Minister enjoyed speaking nonsense and watching him squirm.
“I hesitate to admit this publicly, but I find social media to be one of the most fascinating of subjects. Of what you’ve encountered, has any of it stimulated any thought?” Min. Thrael went on. What is he asking?
“Most of what I’ve read or seen has come from curated selections provided in support of some observation of public opinion. I’ve not engaged with it on other levels.”
“Of course, of course. Well, if you don’t mind, I’d love to share what I find so fascinating about it. I’m not sure if you’re familiar with anthropological epistemology, but from that perspective, it is a fascinating platform for human interaction. For hundreds of years, and I’m speaking now from the anthropological epistemological perspective, humans have interacted mostly through the internet and social media. There was a great schism at the turn of the millenia, of which, I’m sure, you’re aware, which separated historically ‘objective’ media from social media. Informational sources and factual credibility were spread among the people, in a great democratization of intellectual/factual esteem.”
The Minister moved his hands as he walked and talked. He moved with such great speed, through such a volume of information, that Baeshur struggled to capture it all in mind. It was unwieldy, yet the Minister continued.
“So there it was, when the great curtain was pulled and everyone realized everyone else had a motive for their truth, and where the attractiveness, or persuasiveness if you prefer, of competing truths was determined by an entirely new metric. Do you know what that metric was?”
Baeshur, hoping to remain in the Minister’s good graces by being honest and abandoning all hope of comprehension, replied truthfully.
“It was stimulation
. That’s it. Did it tickle something? Did it scratch you? Did it wound? Did it bring joy? If yes, then it was true.”
“I don’t mean to interrupt, but how can a society function when everyone believes whatever is most entertaining?” Baeshur inquired sincerely.
“Exactly! How can it function under such conditions? Society, rendered into an epistemic slop that’s fed back to itself. ‘What’s going on in the world? How did we get here? Did X event actually happen, or was it a psyop?’ Ask any of these questions to a hundred Citizens and a hundred 03F and you’ll get a different answer from everyone. Yet, here we stand. Upon the greatest architectural achievement in the history of mankind. Right now we’re several thousand meters in the air, suspended above the surface only with the technology derived from the contents of our own minds. How is all of this possible under such conditions?”
Baeshur frowned, he had never thought of this before. He wasn’t disposed toward philosophy, and did not pay much attention during his classes for it in University. That being said, the Minister had explained himself well enough that Baeshur could begin to feel the edges of his meaning. What vexed him now was whether the Minister had posed his final question rhetorically or sincerely. He gambled it was rhetorical.
“It appears you’ve thought about this at length,” Baeshur observed.
“Perhaps we’re not asking the right question,” Min. Thrael continued.
The question knocked Baeshur off balance for a moment, until he realized the Minister was referencing his previous question. Even after Baeshur realized this, he still didn’t understand why the Minister would take the time to talk about such a thing with him, specifically. What is he really saying here?
It was all so maddening to Baeshur. Couldn’t the man just out with it? Was he simply continuing to prod his subordinate, just to see what he would do?
“Perhaps we should ask ‘Could all of this be possible without such conditions?’” the Minister turned to Baeshur at this moment, eyes boring into him with a fiery scrutiny. It was obvious Baeshur’s response to this was critical. And, as it was the first time the Minister had allowed his countenance to shift from perfect ambiguity, it terrified Baeshur all the more.
“Minister Thrael, with all due respect, I am not familiar enough with the relevant literature to make a judgment one way or another. If you would like to resume this discussion after I’ve had some time to educate myself, I would be delighted to,” Baeshur responded, continuing to bet on the social virtues of honesty.
The Minister looked deep into Baeshur’s eyes, and the latter felt hopelessly naked before him. Thrael seemed to drink him in, extracting every corner of Baeshur’s being with his eyes.
This all lasted only a few moments, just enough for the silence to become hot. Then the Minister sighed emphatically and waved the thought away.
“You must forgive the musings of an old man,” he began, smiling again. But there was a flash of deep significance again as he solemnly added, “Though I do wonder.”
Yet after another moment, his face returned again to it’s pleasant, open neutrality.
“At any rate, I’ve come to discuss a matter of deep importance with respect to the relations between the Administration and the GGEO,” Min. Thrael stated.
“Of course,” Baeshur added. His mind was momentarily on autopilot; he was still in awe of the display he just witnessed. He turned it on and off in a split second
“Good, I’m glad you’ve got time to discuss it with a Minister. I want your thoughts on a prickly matter. The delegation from Frepta’au Luuc has requested GGEO military aid to help with their system’s growing problem of piracy and smuggling. That corner of the Universe is coming undone quickly, and decisive action needs to be taken.”
Baeshur was nodding along, carefully stowing each word away in his mind. When it came to work matters, he always gave it every ounce of mental effort.
“However, the GGEO Commerce Security Division (CSD) is reluctant about deploying ships to the area. Why, that’s anyone’s guess. But, the problem has grown to such an extent that it constitutes an economic, planet-wide security threat. As such, we need to dedicate energy and resources into convincing the CSD to deploying ships there to stabilize trade routes and retake the Surface Station.”
“The delegation wants CSD troops to retake it’s Surface Station?” Baeshur asked incredulously. The people of Frepta’au Luuc were notoriously resistant to any outside military presence on their planet.
“No, but they don’t have any other option. Intelligence reports the station was overtaken by some sort of Unzer uprising,” Thrael responded. Baeshur raised his eyebrows.
“I know. Reports say it was a bloodbath. Apparently, they’re resuming commerce as usual, but they’ve changed the rules which bar smugglers and pirates from landing there.”
“I had no idea.”
“You’ve not had your first GGEO intelligence briefing yet. It’s understandable.” The Minister stopped walking for a moment and held Baeshur’s arm.
“Can I count on your support to push the GGEO to stabilize the region?” Min. Thrael asked.
Baeshur wanted to handle it diplomatically. Under normal circumstances he would never agree to a new and significant course of action based solely on the word of a Minister, but this was Minister Thrael. Additionally, Baeshur could always rescind his support if new information came to light.
“Of course, Minister. The first meeting with the GGEO Senate Delegation Committee, they will hear my push for greater intervention.”
“Excellent, excellent. Well, I’m pleased to hear it, Deputy Envoy. I knew when the Administration appointed you we would finally have someone who would stand up to ensure Planetary interests are secured all across the galaxy. And, of course, I needn’t say this little conversation stays between us. Good day,” he concluded abruptly, before turning on his heel and walking away.
Baeshur stood, alone on the great, covered balcony, unable to process what he had just encountered. Thrael had seemed to be in a rush to get him to agree to push for CSD in the region, but he must have known Baeshur would double-check all of his claims before ever making a move. Perhaps it was true that piracy and smuggling were presenting large headaches for Planetary corporations and the Citizens. Why was it a secret then?
“How was your meeting with Minister Thrael?” came Brecht’s voice from behind.
Baeshur nearly jumped out of his shoes in surprise. His assistant was standing there, big dumb eyes eager to hear about the rendezvous. To Brecht, Baeshur looked as though he had walked off with Minister Thrael only to be shaken violently by him for thirty minutes.
“Don’t do that! Don’t lurk,” Baeshur snapped.
Divining wooly views gathered amidst shaven sheep hither submitted by Zealousideal_Visual5 to u/Zealousideal_Visual5 [link] [comments]
Withered over swithering stalls denial state of dither
Truth be told frank pens naif soliloquy
Safe as house path hath proven treachery
Steer clear of herd social immunity
Distanced readily available data parsed trendily
Blinks recount lost meanings earned from strife learned through catastrophe
Graft retained splices tour de force movie
Analyzed improvised differently
Can't regain past yet relive history
Elder protocols reference frames with specificity
Documentary denotes concise recusant heresy
Fish stink emanates spoils unquestioned head
Rather than responsible gods chose dead
Lightning rod shields guide flash EMP spread
Relevance revivalist revived rival survivalist
Diatribe analogous corroborates ridiculous
Atoms congress fortuitous naught sea
Devoid self restraint officiates ye
Fitting new attire inspiring streaking
Who protects us whilst we pay for havoc employ they reeking
Hypocritically childish generally speaking
Handshake implies word registers advice
Modern intelligence is artifice
Every three steps forward step back twice
Deities influence me aloof aligned schism in rhyme
Mother Hera ewe chimera godspeed breeds failed design
Bell weather brethren splay scapegoat supine
Veil of illusions enmesh conscious mind
Can't feel my legs good help is hard to find
Hawk departs from pleather glove turtle returns grounded dove
Counteract abet anyone lapped them twice yet still they won
Titans once asked before taking QE
With us or against me democracy
Issuance debt free usury for ye
Soon to be impacting all interested negatively
Cyclops blissfully fail to see plague kills with leniency
World saved through open window tsunami
Backdrops distinct radicle uprooted
Restless tartarus not I confuted
Reputed gambler prophet of doom rigged mind meld welds my tomb
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Democracy assess Big apple bests
Guiding hand meaning Pantheist behest
Seeking one's fulfillment complements of demagoguery
Building baseless pyramid in name of Great Recovery
Hallucination merits upheaval
Remit repreival persecute venal
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Yon morrows martyr covets this abysmal cross commuted
Tread on entrenched fear submit control guiltily included
Govern is to rule as meant to intents
Resourceful proxy heir establishment
Record rallys infer where loans were sent
Pristine colosseums reared commerraderie Fed rum bread
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Insolvent casino scenario
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Sharing the bulk ignites indignation
Transparency Which critiques subtly speaks Feds peak repent
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No one do we answer to where wheelbarrows go we borrow
Sciences religious mythology
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Conversations incidental informations monumental
Facets fawned fastidious selfless attires instrumental
Minions mimic Socratic opinions
Authority inbred majority
Consider selves distinct minority
Yield to ye inferiors subjectively superior
Mechanisms failing sublimation with interior
Greeks conceived benefits in politics
Propaganda versed all in rhetoric
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World perceptions inconsistent to obtained views of my own
Optimism timeless shown fantastically overblown
Fate collapses upon observation
Ostriches banked on unexamined lives
Perturbations quantum fluctuations
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Cessation trepidation ensures no future certainty
Whilst known speed and position now in sync
One makes ye taller yet none make me shrink
Doth not know thyself yore on the brink
Fulfillment will not quail forbidden face of foreign dangers
Entrainment derailed arranged marriage twixt incomplete strangers
Birds of a feather flock with the weather
One marked to market worth two under Bush
Lemmings allegedly demand a push
An existential exercise spins nihilistic nightmares
Nonconformed confirmed uncomfort spirals condescending stairs
Slaughter abolished pig sucklers now fly
Fed up rich bullshit Which lies upon lye
Doth need not for lipstick ride we bone dry
Left to right wrong motivations paved by best intention
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Overdue elixir panacea
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Spirits confirmed in actions idea
Though hungry swine will freely plow fall submissive tow the line
No offence is meant whence I commence casting pearls before thine
Lead thee to sustenance soon thou shall find
You feed a seed of rage contented caged
That Which hath been remains yet to be seen
One finds upon a wander from yon cave we've left regression
Whence without luminescence stem outlandish such obsessions
Actualized self's realization
Fasting of heart leaves no trace of ego
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Where indiscretions excesses discretely are repressed
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I first blew reed pipes but then I digress
Values eroded integrity
Climate corroded ideals irresponsibility
Satisfied my agency autonomous capacity
Bet Dow hath finally had a bad day
Bear in mind they will say twas anway
Old high still standing gold stones throw away
Shorting shooting slope of hope enormous towers treacherous
Each new era crashes in increasing half glass emptiness
Overabundance deserts time delay
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Dusk withdraws from sight as shade is drawn over dawn's early light
Narcissistic psychopaths inherited the earth our plight
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Ye gods laugh heartily ridicule me
Reckoning another day mine shall be
Subsequently I subsist shifting this rock as Sisyphus
Future pulls upon me as due ration to minus remiss
I'm half crazy bicycle built for two
Network circuitry daisy chained to you
How do I know what is reel to be true
Gather input sensations scrutinize for degradation
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Singularity prophesied end be
Less threat than icons presently envied
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Evil gives comfort my rod and my staff
No fear preparest for my enemies
Parasitic symbiotes surviving vicariously
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Unnatural select evolution
Bad apple genes rot barrel pollution
Big bang extends concussions extrusion
Elude intrusion neath tapestry relay inscribed decree
Conspiracy theories deliquesced evidence coalesced
Duress dressed as justice undue process
Reduce the law to writ for oversight
Infinitely rules stretch fractally tight
Dollar press lever Wizards tweak whence practised Which deceiver
Feeding frenzy at the top on last chair hot potato drops
Animal farm irrigation believer
Cuckoos in nested loops launched retriever
Social ecological equity
Fauna all created equal although some are more than most
Perched aloft nights sleepless roosters backdate options after posts
Tell a vision avulsed exclusive boasts
Foxes bird box hens fake news oven roasts
Occupy Wall Street greeting champagne toasts
5G technology expandable densification
Cameras considering Laws actual ramifications
Depressions perpetuate FOMO motes
FIFO Ponzi scheme boat redeems fresh float
Gloat sessions connoted roat smote through goat
Destructions need demands feed for Which Fed never hesitates
Beyond salvations hope for damnation destined reprobates
Wolf in sheep's clothing with diplomacy
Bragging best ever broke economy
Pre warned of bubble in candidacy
Memories impeach me markets relapse collapse candor
Black and white deliberations compromise grey matters or
Burning empire riddled Nero fiddled
No new under the sun any longer
What doth not kill my will makes ye stronger
Suicidal quarantine commit sheer to absurdity
Crash course in urgency suspends to decade Odyssey
Engulf journey as is illusory
Entailed magical curtailed mystery
Reproduced sequence spawns duplicity
Great truths infect minds space whilst time distorts fabrics ablation
Balanced scales duration dual edged knife grinds calibration
Wildlife exhumed landslide menagerie
Submission supports popularity
War of attrition print press edition
Release Kraken abridged dictations unredacted memo
Cognitive mind is least informed second thought tis last to know
Feedback iterates habitually
Zombie apocalyptic shopping spree
Animal myriad corroboree
Discrepancies adorable approaching deplorable
Configured integrations simulate exaggerations
New century frail clings frayed to pale past
Dot com bust imprints last iconoclast
Tragic disposition anchored significance within story
Spherical lyrical expository mourning glory
Expansion dominates fertility
Appropriate most apt utility
Bubble envelops errs infinity
Bold ignorance advanced hind sights distilled new high arrogance
Underlying trauma repeats cycle till addressed complete
Sublates convergence becoming congeals
Cavernous kingdom stalagmite conceals
Peer not in mirror prefer not appeal
Sew a thought in hope to reap an action something real to feel
Neverland begotten old whilst kid futures are oversold
Life lived not lest bits of bites record it
Biased suggestions imbue news reported
Syrinx sears titans with my brand of creed
Written word ceded all forgotten need to practise recall
Calculated math skills lost computer brought thoughts holocost
Ensconced by lantern hung from beam of straw
Helios heals blow of iced ages thaw
Loyal to natural attributes raw
Extraordinary delusional madness of ye crowds
Trot proudly upon road to serfdom congregations praised aloud
Brave was this new world before eighty four
Hunger games in store jaybird tweets that score
Jehovah bore witnesses door to door
Insure myself against four horseman
paid my tithe expired spent
Sow ears flying high on credit barely do I afford rent
Time unwinds quickly at least doth for me
April showers levee spring bankruptcy
Litres live forever in latency
Bailing water steady rising deep subterraneously
Foresee floods invest in arks of financial calamity
Extraneously Rome's blaze radiates
Simultaneously Fed Witches toiled
Slow perniciously satiates frogs boiled
Crisis constructs messenger of sordid too tongued character
Stocks which rise so should slide chosen goose footing egg opposed side
Federal innovates imbibed bribed state
Reserves umpire status hunched hind home plate
Falling knife of fear impaled atmosphere
Short bets squeezed rife barren years unfruitful bleeds contango wine
Inverse ETFs unprecedented reverse splits declined
Nothing it's equal creature without fear
Can't fill hide with harpoons or head with spears
Mire strive dire try pull in Leviathan
Endless procrastination doth avert intent deflation
Unclear when routes passage appears clear as destination
Sorrows station seems my inculcation
Divides built up babble between nations
Seven trumpets summon revelation
Electrostatic circumstance transmits catalytic twist
Substitute reacted chemical transmits platonic tryst
Ironically passion not my goal
Ionically bonded blending coal
Mirrored dipole roll poised down rabbit hole
Experiment first ever repeats Laws defraud endeavor
Mississippi reflating dollar debt exchange creating
Wealth effect transfers helicopter drop
Fracking reserves crack too big to stop
Ineptitude or evilly adept
Calm filled the room as elephants silently drowned in tar pits
History Which hails tense whence Fed injections flew to market
Lucrative house flipping stained soil carpet
Real reign swamp purge comes to street again
Broken window theory frisk fallacy
Destructions need graciates feed for Which Fed never hesitates
Seven headed hydra twixt blaspheming regime duplicates
Purgatory epic allegory
Apathy lacks worry for avoidance
Dreams annoyance recurring clairvoyance
Complacent consternation burns concerned capitulation
Catacomb further catenates future pyroclastic blasts
Install a new partition date saved last
God creates man's imaged eternity
Man made device for immortality
Only way to beat life be articulate as dead machine
Foiling might be finding wanting nothing just as pleasing
Emoted thoughts and deeds confer disease
Viral joy contained anxious unease
Communicable known uncertainties
Mention stoic abstention receive lepers reprehension
Addend subconscious attention suchness sought destination
Protectionist tribal groupthink ensues
Misdirect blame profane color thou choose
Divide and conquer plan by Jove we use
Minting for a living tis nothing short of scintillating
Weaponry mass produce we entropy disintegrating
Rebirth essential in this finite trap
Technicals crucial analysis map
Impulse mined collective wiretapped caps
Souls endless extrapolating each threshold encapsulating
Mutually affecting Titans ever overreaching
Battles march business no fight beseeching
Cyanide reaction gold is leaching
Settle for distraction Athene’s teaching
Shares fabricate infrastructure bonds for manufactured war
Master in ways of deception weaving fleece her predilection
Declined vine illustrates interjection
Fundamentally ye add furthermore
Whole vacuus nature I find abhor
Each new day opportune to go by street sideshow pundits shout
Marginally most will comply seek aggressive salesman clout
Run through stampede proceed in funnel out
Mosaic tile code mixed mirage mud grout
Worm abated hook ate some fat cat’s trout
Informed when glad relate when mad great is not the worst we've had
Next quarter rates Which inflates translates to direct tabled fate
Disinformation chads dangling depart
Troublesome travel when horse pushes cart
Trojans craft driftwood regifted as art
Taken rate decision interest always is a given
Approached encroachment infringements lunged impingement I expunged
Spell manifests as living hell digests
Calcareous sponge absorbed rimstone plunge
Cookbook to serve lamb seals underhand
Sinter sauntered asunder plotting pillage of my plunder
Attack technique intervenes quoth slighted victim claims obscene
Cried mystified feeling such waste sprayed mace
Save face retrace find safety inside shrouded space
Access filter modified denied trash storage verified
Angels four spew brimstone fire scorched ingress half expected less
Trick talk turns back clock players profiles rotate roles resume
Covertly campaigned defiling my name
Creations Instigate destruction
Erupts surreptitious instruction
Bewildered heard shocked embrace loomed Gates of Hell gauge WHO won race
Military missionary hold prostrate to vaccinate
Chaotic Kronos ordered time consumed
Stow stoked fumes subsidies gave the gods room
Whilst land of the fraud is home to the knave
Babylon of living nonexistent through the golden age
Cassandra of this stage ilk ignores inklings of alarmed sage
Chicken little forebodes sky is falling
Rope a dope fades rationalisation
Brittle doth be fragile ye recalling
Loquacious news needs slews feigned of disambiguation
Mendacious or fallacious contagious be implications
Butterfly flapped wing doth not move a thing
But a gnat perhaps who's too GAD to fly
Financing is how but where is the why
Important that all patriots patronize conquesting troops
Dodge ye head stoop as pooping eagle swoops
Most dismissive uninspired missive
Perceptually far too derisive
Guiding hand not apparent visual
Missing cash flows continual residual bottom lines
Pinnochio hopes to know Which ideal conjures growth sublime
Dendrites potentially stimulate spine
Titanic torrents mist venetian blinds
Decidedly distort bilked disincline
Writhe in through chasm in awe open wide
Formless figures summon uniform pride
Dismiss discontent conveyors subside
Tributaries dispersed springs knowledge trees freeze molten ore
Splintering sparks displaced thick dark coruscate tangible floor
Cumulus clouds of primordial dust
Question our senses in sun god we trust
Sifted silts produce thunderbolts of Zeus
Oval elliptical orbits the folds tidal tendency
Blue sphere girds spoken word breathed clay Boulder Forge Company
Quality moulding is job number one
Caste mass producing consumes many sons
My duty to ensure we always run
Figured would be a piece of cake more at work than give and take
Thought this would be my big break but not knowing literally
Apprenticed construction now I maintain
Composite skill same commissioning game
Swim or wallow in Uranus disdain
I made the trade not for reward nor deemed security
Only gospel guarantee is confidence in mastery
Tasked to sit in a chair contemplate stare
Crosswords in wait for a breakdown repair
I study craves of machines which behave
Rhythmic clang links chain react percussional power set free
Insatiable harmony piques morbid curiosity
Beast belly bowel bubbles belch smelt death
To quota of product do I owe breath
Economic cauldron of corrosion
We operate Vesuvius ungodly hours breathing brine
Facilitate yon amplidyne oxygenate lavas shine
Steering eather into three cyclops cells
Myopically they motion for me when cycles in chaos my sirens knell
Lion hearted as Hephaestus take knee before crucibles hearth
Examine vitals symptoms prognosis deduce further impart
Volt amps transcend times root of three powers
Frequently electrons ebb in order
Arc bath gives rise to hot molten showers
May bring flowers demonstrate my will in accord rewards her
Athena is truth incarnate dream she is a movement
Immaculate perfection possessed no
need for improvement in her coveralls
Wert she to eaten apple I befall
Sand disseminates beneath hourglass curves she manipulates
How could I anticipate
Rapt hints had she to intimate
Roots hypotenuse squares summed pendulum
Enlightened visions profound pit this plum
On que she hooks her thunderbolts so ample in restriction
Destabilized my volts despite my amping up conviction
Magnetisms repulsive attraction
Bipolar feedback generates action
Machining floral dissatisfaction
Narcissus is spring can't this robot tool be taught anything
Recommence imaging thine vault undermined after fault
Intuit as her nuclear annihilates tumult
June accusations forced violation
Vulnerable to invalidation
Confrontations repudiation consents allegation
Placate June”s wells breached swell fore July conflagration
Use wu wei to vacate situation
But weightless behemoth ate all greenbacks
Can’t manage exit not even a crack
Inward forays shunned malfunction unknown overgrown morass
Cult of quantity all students get a pass coach seat class
God’s walled over all access to egress
Those who cannot do are experts at best
Past practise succeeds failures teach what needs
Viridescent pools dilate grey eyed dubious stressed madness
Feeling she was slighted by my passage through her nucleus
Disinterested I had disinterred
Down period Kondratieff winter
Intrinsic tragedy all fairy tales end inherently
Gave me what I wished for in a way I was not hoping for
Destiny permits paths forbade
How shallow wilt thou will wade
PCB cesspools black bile pitches glue
Smoldering sand dune trenches shore magmas excess residue
Admit this time smashing cymbals whilst cyclops wert drumming too
Keep the fantasy alive in my head
Earthquake take other route instead
Always say they never saw it coming
They did In Herculaneum still their brains steamed in their skulls
Summer solstice solace lulls lava ladles plentiful
Cumulative studies validations
Inseminate process degradation
Trying not to mention my invention
Bending toward normalcy absorption emits diffraction
Inverted perceptions withdraw inflections from emptiness
Perplexing she rejects ram intellect
Anecdotal evidence cached respect
Zip plans to stockpile cognizance combined
Designed secret punishment to circumvent I resigned
Recollect for instance cognitive lessons in dissonance
Logic accepts one view perceived of two
Pit of mine stomach whence knot always knew
Treasonous betrayed lion taming shrew
Spite cleaved interface continued dutiful onward pace
Humiliations goal wert to replace cheers with disgrace
Orchestrations untold meticulous
Malevolence is still in existence
Narrative streams unfold conspicuous
Childish bliss unscrupulous epidemic Narcissus
Invasive species multiplied since Zeus supplied his sun’s abyss
Affect change rather than effect ere cause
Gaslight obfuscates reasonable laws
Tall tales half truths edged lies by omission
Unwary reprehense motive intents of recognition
Splitting of the faculty augments a new reality
Fight freeze or flee options only three
Trials choose middle choice typically
Stockholm syndrome captors figured friendlies
Volunteer for brunt of blame acquiesced toxic shame domain
Raging stirs steroid cortisol adrenaline cocktail brain
Idealize devalue sudden discard
Benevolent dictatorship abstained
Without the faintest regret or regard
Figured she was playing me but never thought she'd try so hard
Had a little influence pummeling blacksmith into bard
Feeling flashback symptoms PTSD
Reflux acid regurgitates anxiously
Facilities shut down my apogee
Estranged entanglement is indiscriminate vicinity
Projection deflects inspection detects proffered rejection
Upon reflection I/O failed connection
Reverse detail switched doppler direction
Attacked mine tranquility enacted thine stability
Great relationships determined by good portability
Amor Fati defeat of agony
Heroic transitions affirmation
Chinks of crevasse evasive to bypass
Labyrinth strings web of deceit light and dark unlikely meet
Shadows reconnection Schadenfreude revels surrection
Maze ambled afore trapped in Minotaur
Unfurled divest individuation
Emergence of self under siege August surfacing intrigues
Sun god aims retribution penetrating air dilution
Perpetrating vengeful execution
Cyclop's blindsided coming attraction
Apollo's exaction vents extraction
Redress reclaimed door discharged from mine chore
Concussions cavitations roar gaff retrieved my staff from shore
Gangplank fastened transit for deck from wreck
Embodied under mass gravitation
Nothingness consistent contradiction
In retrospect ahead investigate that Which is suspect
Chastened flaming embers titillate orange September moon
Hastened retreat not an instant too soon
Burgeoning three wave prosperity shewn
Wave five trait mimics Echo past monsoon
Perpetually parallel dramas punctual insane
Aphrodite's inception purged migraine foam seethed fire in vain
Twain hath liquidity trickled down drain
Consult oracle ogle tangent plane
Bow to stern brood tempestuous coxswain
Demurrage fee aptly sought to regain lay of way terrain
Masked my gnashing lion waves stumble as they spread before me
Mountain rubble crumbles bloodied red sea
Locusts cannibalistic commotion
Uncanny notion overt devotion
Fixed betwixt twin scorpions stings subtle by a hares degree
One longs to age as seas submit one hole subliminally
Desire loves desire more than that desired
Overtime I find wanting displeasing
Fuel to fire Aphrodite’s teasing
Symptomatically nymphomaniac releasing
Random cosmos berth patterned beyond cyclic perimeter
Doth not feel momentum ye be the tide
Volume reduced ambient limiter
Futile to resist flow fatal to ride
Impressed by the strung rope ladder of unquestioned good status
Doctors orders therapeutic regressive Hedonism
Bureaucracy forced parentalism
Founding fathers Titan nepotism
The health preventative catechism
Give only to take away to give again another day
Rewards gods some token compensation
Anyone here not get paid besides me
Red light starboard wax eared crew rendezvous
Bounded by my sacrifice to irresponsibility
None of the other prize winning
players gamble here but me
Battened down fear gauge groups psychopathy
Ever since world went into bankruptcy
Call for Panic Zeus black masked his swan song
Yarn for youthful innocence gone stick slip traction moves this throng
Tread borderline separating time providing till from when
Uneven Titans tip unbalanced ships
Dualities tune unity in trine
One thing I did learn when within confine
Whom hath desire for nothing believes doth not need anything
Misinterpretation required missing zero still a thing
Axons bemoan sequence of no return
Feeling slight injustice step forward commandeer ambition
Venus akin to mine headache just better known rendition
Under spotlight favorite position
Internally propelled by externals
Take this Autumnal equinox swear on the cross tis vernal
All the gods explicitly sing chants how lucky I must be
Bring Mordor back to toss this precious ring
Prospect she fertilized inferring seed
Open union upon Which we agreed
Karma conflates heavens gates contrived in Pandemonium
Green shoots elate consummate concerns inspire Pavlovian
Theories cosigned conspiracies maligned
Impermanence ineffably refined
Ignorance binds energy disinclined
Universal conception pride of self
Trying to be pliable but find it reprehensible
All dispensable Great Complacent Sea
Sizing words wisely rids ostensible
Lies the only guise now found comprehensible
Prophylactic allude to didactic
Though whilst I work at chore she’s Ares whore
I snagged them embarrassingly naked afore gods before
Yellen Helen neither nor wert worth war
Bowl of wrath judgement ignored poor decor
Titans empathizing with swimming clothes
In her throws she extolled excitement being extra exposed
Far be it from she to assume joint responsibility
Exponential debt credits game theory
On that we agree tis rigged currency
Propaganda grasshoppers enlist ants backbone socialist
Can't remember when gathered last had a say any matter
Other nations forfeit right to do it
Export of inflation needs conduit
Concert donates borders New World Order
Blockchain came about when drunk bartender could not reach the spout
Yahweh will control all money now they have it figured out
Waiting for my minute to be clever
Stamp my name on the gods minds forever
My switchblade really needs to cut them off
No clue what the gods know only that they need to run the show Narcissistic parasites charisma lands entitlement
Vampires nourish roots to stunt encouragement
Protocol enticing invitation
Condemnation staged cooperation
Intolerable acts left no coercive tea leaves intact
Coven of bag passing Witches gave chase across red waters
Need another nine stitches sons twixt daughters
Waiting in the balance moment of force
Hatch guillotine MRI triggered source
Soaked up dripped Wyrmwood postulated solvent tasted good
Full equilibrium half ballast set assail for malice
Octobers placid benign chilled chalice
Brain scan photocell senses light all is well
If instead bulb shows dead off with thee head
Also as a godsend bonus honed mom’s splendid jury throne
Captive chaperone audience fettered judgement chains inlaid
Skipping to a Witch hunt after masquerade
Topside upper deck on the promenade
Propellor fashion later ohm made blade
Behooved turtle jail sac tail flailed back satyromaniac
Passionate parade personifying Nature of tirade
Horney gimp hind quarters brace graced limp
Llama spitting image of Obama
Clinton's dole out cigars contribute scars
All guests in attendance dressed as promised change we forget lest
Salubrious familiar strangers grooving Harvey Danger
Politically free redundancy
Reagan closed asylums threw away key
Identity hath no cost found when lost
Consolidations vibrate quantized sinusoidal noise
Pullback hull triangulate alow by my device and Echo
Feel lonely frost amongst the other masks
Survival is appeasing to their tasks
Remember November elect Semper
Meaning faithful to all members not just only archaic
On the way to office run your head
Vanishing quickly old liquidity
Seven plagues capsized immortality
The line hath paid out to the bitter end
Too big to sail exhale replications glorification
Night zeniths elevation nadirs sun's regeneration
A thousand words wasn't enough? Here's five thousand.
List acquired here. submitted by essidus to OneWordBan [link] [comments]
[EVENT] The Internationale Conference Concludes
In keeping with the tradition that began in 1866, the Internationale has held a successful conference. Paris, the epicenter of the old order’s great defeat, has birthed new life in the form of the modern revolutionary spirit, as it had done in past centuries. Now, with the great debates, speeches and secret meetings of military importance all concluded, the following consensus has been produced:
The Third Internationale is between a rock and a hard place policywise. It is the conference’s belief that our poor economic, foreign policy and logistical situations can only be remedied by taking certain political stances. Broadly-speaking, this means a focus on efficient autonomy and a very clear delineation between when things are more efficient top-down versus bottom-up.
Development of critical industries such as natural resource and war materials production should be top-down, because national decisiveness is key. Similarly, a presidential system is preferable in order to have a single figure able to make decisions that cannot wait for consensus. In regards to local and regional affairs, however, consensus should be built from the bottom up, via legislatures and representative groups. Market socialism is a natural extension of trade unionism, in order to spare administrative resources that would otherwise be wasted on micromanagement. Overall, federalism and municipalism are good options for making these power structures work, as a strong supplement for trade unions. This balance of decisiveness and consensus should provide the best manner from which to make viable revolutionary states.
We need to be open for diverse modes of thinking in order to make a broad enough coalition to facilitate our political aims. That means, broadly speaking, an end to the modern conceptualization of colonialism, which we’ve already signed onto. More importantly, we need to recognize that all people must be treated with equality of opportunity, as this is our chance to eke out the most from our limited amount of manpower. Primarily this is concerned with women’s rights, civil rights for oppressed groups, and better education/social services. Investments here will build support for our movement, give us more manpower and industrial power per capita, and increase productivity on an individual level. The revolution’s goals can also serve as the means of achieving them.
It is also worth considering the women’s revolution from a different angle than mere necessity. If our revolution is to be victorious, it cannot discard the rights of half of the population due merely to differences in anatomy. It is worth remembering that even in places where women’s political rights are heavily curtailed by patriarchal norms, they still hold massive sway due to the essential part they play in the fabric of all societies. If we appeal to the common woman with a genuine offer of liberation and the right to make their own choices, it is not only a huge victory for our revolution, but our moral and civic duty.
During the course of this conference, the so-called “Entente” nations have abandoned the last semblance of democratic norms they still had, unveiling them as the tyrants we already knew them to be. This course of events, combined with a reconciliation with less radical democratic movements in many countries, see the Internationale as the main proponents of true democracy in the world. We should take up this mantle with gusto, as we are up to the challenge of broadening our coalition and making nice with moderate allies when they are willing to make nice with us.
Those who espouse democratic socialism and social democracy are the most easily incorporated. While they do not necessarily espouse anarchist or syndicalist views on economics, a shared focus on public welfare and the common good makes our rhetoric a snug fit. Social liberals are perhaps a more challenging group, as they still adhere to many of the tenets of capitalism, especially the concept of a market system. However, their willingness to be open to social change and their firm belief in democracy being supreme over capitalism where the two conflict (in their eyes, at least) will give us openings to make appeals.
While it is certainly a much bigger tent ideologically than the revolution began with, we can make it work. It may also allow the revolution to make inroads if we portray our values in ways that our non-revolutionary fellows can understand. While we all agree with the concept of “negative freedoms”, or rights that can only be taken away - such as freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom of public protest - the revolution’s ideals are often embodied in “positive freedoms”. These freedoms can only be attained by working together towards a common goal, such as freedom from hunger, freedom from want, and so forth.
Additionally, while the revolution is fundamentally secular, it is not opposed to religion in and of itself. This has not been made clear, usually due to fundamentalist propaganda rooted in fear of our economic stances but peddled in religious terminology. By establishing a firm separation of church and state without alienating the church, we will preserve both the revolution and the spiritual connection that many people have with their faith of choice. There will often be conflicts between the two, as many tenets of faith are somewhat outmoded, but these can be overcome without stamping religion out. This will both preserve the rights the revolution is meant to defend, and allow us lasting appeal with many of those who are of strong personal faith.
While much of this discussion about broadening the revolution has been met with derision from purists, it is a compromise that most seem willing to make.
The Third Internationale is critically isolated from essential resources required for war production. The Germans have a significant colonial empire, and the Entente has access to many critical resources simply due to the geographical size and wealth of their remaining overseas territories. The Third Internationale has neither of these things, and is in serious danger of being unable to compete for resources essential for war production. This must be rectified as soon as possible, both by removing the safety nets of our enemies and securing one for ourselves.
Oil is by far the most critical natural resource we have a paucity of. While synthetic oil production and coal cracking have broken critical ground, they still provide an absolutely paltry amount of refined oil for use or stockpiling. Exploration of Scottish shale deposits have also proven unsatisfactory for running a single peacetime economy, let alone two wartime ones. The best option currently is investment in Mexico’s troubled oil industry, which has struggled to find buyers ever since the US and Germany refused to trade with them. By investing in Mexico and building considerable storage facilities, we should have enough to weather the storm. Oil security, fortunately, is a problem that Germany also shares. If we’re able to isolate them from their tenuous connection to the oil fields in Baku, we can place the juggernaut into the troublesome situation we’re in, but with far less advance preparation.
Rubber is even more troublesome, and is crucial in significant quantity in order to run the vehicles which appear critical for modern war. Rubber is needed for planes, tanks, everything complex that acts in support of the infantry. We have virtually none, and even worse, the Germans control the lion’s share of world production between their colonial enterprises. Any revolts in rubber-rich areas should be given special consideration, and the fomenting of revolution in places like Indochina, Malaya, Siam, Ceylon and Equatorial Africa should be strongly encouraged. Additionally, if an allied regime can be created in Brazil, we could secure vast potential rubber resources with enough investment. Brazil would also be the safest bet logistically, with Germany able to largely disrupt or shut down rubber transfer from other areas. A special consideration should also be made for the Dutch East Indies, and support of a friendly Insulindian revolution could also provide an indigenous counter to Entente and German interests in the region. If we act quickly, we could also seed major rubber plantations in other viable zones of the Americas and Africa amenable to our trade, in order to provide auxiliary sources by the time the war is in full swing, but rubber trees take six years to grow.
Copper is another massive challenge. The Entente has many productive copper mines, as does the United States. The Internationale, meanwhile, has to rely mostly on mines in Cornwall that are likely to begin declining in output soon. Our best bet for competing is to exploit the considerable reserve in Chile, which indicates that we must secure Argentina to ensure the preservation of the Chilean regime. Additional sources could be secured in Spain or the United States if we’re lucky, and exploration of unproven reserves in Peru if their government is overthrown. Germany has active copper mines in places like Lubin, but it is unclear as to whether they would be sufficient to sustain a prolonged war.
With the second defeat of France, all of Lorraine now lies in Germany, her critical iron ore going with it. Italian ore production is insignificant, and British mines are largely uneconomical but can at least bolster her domestic steel demand. Chile, Brazil, Mexico, the United States, Norway and Sweden are the most accessible producers, with potential for future expansion of the steel industry in India if Jharkhand can be held. Without these imports, war production will be implausible. Germany, meanwhile, has much of their ore production and steel industry near their frontlines in the Lorraine and Flemish-Wallonian Sillon Industriel, as well as the Ruhr. If war comes, it is possible that air power could provide a critical advantage in reducing the Reich’s warmaking capacity in this sector.
Bauxite production is minimal, which is unfortunate considering our significant potential for aluminum production. Hydroelectric facilities in Alpine France and Italy could produce considerable amounts of aluminum for planes if bauxite sources could be obtained. Most bauxite used commercially is currently exported from Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and especially Australia, rendering it out of our grasp. However, there are also proven deposits in Arkansas that could be exploited by an allied America to greatly increase wartime aluminum throughput. Fortunately, Germany is in a similar predicament regarding aluminum accessibility, and knocking out their import sources in China and Brazil could help facilitate the crippling of their aeronautical industries. However, the Entente would be just as likely to sell to Germany for processing, rendering those efforts moot.
Cobalt is essential for catalysts, as well as various alloys. Unfortunately, we’re not in a great position regarding cobalt either. The US has some unproven reserves, but the main production sites available to us are in Cuba. It is possible that Chile could provide cobalt in the required amounts to feed our synthetic materials industries, but that is as yet uncertain.
The Union of Britain and Commune of France both produce considerable amounts of coal, but it tends to be mediocre in quality and economic viability. Additionally, the most viable French coal deposits in Nord-Pas-de-Calais are directly in the line of fire for German troops, leaving mostly the Loire deposits in a strategically secure region. Meanwhile, Germany’s principle coal-mining region in the Ruhr could be made vulnerable to air power, but their significant coal sources in Silesia and elsewhere could aid in keeping their electricity and steel production online. Unfortunately, accessing coal from elsewhere is not economical, and hydroelectric power should be strongly considered, as well as natural gas or literally anything that can keep the lights on.
Manganese is usually found alongside iron deposits, and is critical for virtually all steel production, most aluminum alloys used in military applications, as an additive to reduce engine knocking in unleaded gasoline, and as the key ingredient in current-generation batteries. While the Internationale possesses minor manganese production, mostly in the northern Pyrenees, it is not nearly enough to sustain a wartime steel industry. The best alternative sources at this time are Brazil, India (specifically Orissa, controlled by the Bharatiya Commune), and Mexico, whose reserves are as of yet mostly unproven. Most other sources and potential sources - South Africa, Australia, China, Malaya, Gabon, Ukraine, Ghana - are controlled by the Entente or Reichpakt, with South Africa and Australia being by far the leaders in manganese production.
Lead is crucial for bullets, solder and many alloys of copper and brass. By and large, lead can be sourced in necessary amounts from Mexico if we invest, with other potential candidates being Peru, Bolivia, the US, India and Ireland. Again, the Entente has a massive lead (pun intended) due to Australia, who has by far and away the largest reserve of lead. Germany has minor lead mines of her own, but not enough to support her war industry without major supplementation from Sweden, Russia or Australia.
Nickel is necessary for several alloys, especially types of stainless steel, as well as being a catalyst for hydrogenation. The primary sources for nickel are German New Caledonia, the Philippines, Russia, Canada, Cuba and Brazil, with the latter two being by far the most accessible. Nickel is especially critical for tungsten carbide machine tools, which are vastly superior to regular steel for many tools and machines needed for war production.
Tin is necessary for almost any form of solder, not to mention tin-plated containers, cans and bearings. Outside of the now-declining tin mines in Cornwall, the Bolivian and Chinese tin belts are the primary sources of tin for the Internationale. Unfortunately, Yunnan’s economy is largely controlled by German corporate interests, as are many other potential sources. That said, Siam may be a viable long-term trade partner, as could an independent Indochina, Malaya or Insulindia. Brazil, Peru, Australia and Russia also have significant deposits.
Molybdenum is a critical component of alloys in military-grade armor, electrical contacts, airplane components, industrial motors, filament supports in lightbulbs, and many forms of stainless and tool-quality steel. The main sources of molybdenum are in Norway and the United States, with Chile also producing Molybdenum as a byproduct from copper mining. In this respect, it is possible that the Internationale will be able to deny Germany access to major deposits, as Canada has yet to exploit most of theirs and it may be possible to cut much of US trade to the German industrial heartland.
Tungsten is straightforward, primarily being used for tungsten carbide in machine tools, kinetic energy penetrators, etc. By far the largest production potential for tungsten is China, but many other sources exist in more convenient countries such as Spain, Portugal, the United States, Australia, Canada, Russia and Indochina. While the Entente and Reichpakt control much of these, Spain and Portugal could be potential sources, and England has domestic tungsten production that could provide a bare minimum of new tungsten carbide in wartime.
Vanadium is another extremely useful steel additive, as well as having applications in airframes, axles and other high-wear, critical components of vehicles and machinery. Vanadium is mostly present in Manchuria, Peru, far eastern Siberia and South Africa. It is likely that we could deny the Germans access to significant amounts if South Africa could be somehow isolated.
Zinc is essential in galvanization, many alloys including bronze, catalyzing rubber, manufacture of industrial chemicals, and more. Zinc at least can be accessed in reasonable quantities via Ireland, Mexico and India. However, it is worth considering that Peru, Australia, Russia, China, the United States and Canada are by far the largest producers. It is very unlikely that Germany can be cut off from significant access to zinc, given that it is also produced in quantity in Anatolia and Sweden.
Nitrates used for fertilizer are largely dominated by production in Chile, Peru, California and the Pacific islands. Fortunately, it is far more abundant in Chile than anywhere else, meaning that agricultural production is more secure. Actual productive agricultural lands that could be tapped into are largely in Argentina, southeastern Brazil, the United States and perhaps unorthodox countries such as India, if properly mechanized. Germany is heavily reliant on colonial and Ukrainian imports, and the Entente mostly relies on Canadian (and to a lesser extent, Australasian) grain. A significant enough disruption from sea traffic could potentially starve the French Republic out, or on a smaller scale could work on the garrisons of Corsica and Sardinia.
The Internationale is critically reliant on overseas trade in order to support our war economies, even if we manage to acquire the necessary resources to actually further our war aims domestically. This means a rapid change of focus from building up to face Germany on the home continent to instead facing off against the Entente and Hochseeflotte to wrest control of the waves. We start in control of two critical naval passages, the English Channel and Straits of Magellan, but this will not suffice to achieve a victory in the current situation.
Most critical and with the most potential is Gibraltar. Control of Spain would allow the Internationale to hold a knife to the throat of Germany’s largest colonial trade artery, forcing them to reroute their trade from Ostasien around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the much shorter Suez route. This would also be absolutely devastating to the French “Republic”, who relies on Gibraltar for almost all of their imports due to the severe traversability challenge posed by the Sahara. The much smaller ports in Morocco would not suffice, and could potentially be intercepted from a Gibraltar position, rendering them moot, and allowing us to choke the French pretender state into submission. In enemy hands, meanwhile, Gibraltar would force us to move almost all supply overland and would prevent our naval forces from being able to group together if necessary, rendering a major blow to our warmaking capabilities.
Additional pressure on the Mediterranean can be provided by seizure of Sicily, thus locking down the Strait of Messina and would allow for considerable strike capability into the Strait of Sicily. Such a position could pose a large threat to German trade, but would have much less of an effect on the French Republic. As such, it would be prioritized in the context of strengthening Syndicalist Italy, and not as a viable alternative to Gibraltar.
Now we turn our attention to holding our own trade open, and the North Atlantic becomes our principle battleground. Sufficient deployment of German or Entente submarines could pose an existential threat to Internationale shipping, let alone their surface fleets. If we are to survive, the North Atlantic must be kept open so that supplies from allies such as Chile and Mexico can be received and put to good use. This means that Spain and Portugal are once again critical, as Iberian waters stand to intercept any and all shipments from critical resource regions. Additionally, Brazil would serve as an extraordinarily useful base for naval patrols, allowing the Internationale to put pressure on insufficiently-guarded German shipping between Natal and Monrovia, and use of the Canaries and Azores would allow a significant extension of the Internationale’s air coverage in supply areas critical for the Entente.
The Caribbean is rife for potential socialist uprising, and the Entente could theoretically use their bases to shut off resources critical for the war effort, especially Mexican oil and Cuban rare earth metals. At bare minimum, a corridor must be established somewhere via the support of syndicalist revolutionary activity, in order to keep ahold of our Mexican petro-lifeline. Without oil, no strategy will succeed.
In the North Sea, it is worth gambling on protections for Danish Faroes, Iceland and Greenland if we cannot take them ourselves, as allowing them to fall into enemy hands could prove disastrous. Already we are at an informational disadvantage compared to the Entente, whose position in the western Atlantic means they are aware of the expected weather across the ocean ahead of time, whereas we… are not. To allow a launchpad for airborne convoy raiding or other activities in such a critical space is exceptionally dangerous, which is the same reason why detente or even occupation of Ireland could prove necessary. We cannot allow any additional bridges towards us, or lifelines for German shipping.
Our control of the Straits of Magellan, preferably supplemented by the Falklands and South Georgia, is crucial for segmenting and isolating German or Entente commerce raiders, but is most important as a secure lane for transport for our own supplies, should the Panama Canal prove unusable or fallen into enemy hands.
The Internationale should broadly assume that they will be unable to sever trade in the Eastern Mediterranean, unless Egypt chooses to seize the Suez Canal in a wartime situation, which is entirely beyond our control. As such, it is possible that Germany will attempt to reroute their supplies from Suez into the Ukraine and then overland, a far inferior route to purely overseas but still possible. In order to mitigate this, it may be worth pursuing a Sicily -> Malta strategy to allow our navies to put greater pressure on the eastern Med if Russia cannot exert significant force in the Black Sea.
Should the Dutch East Indies succumb to revolution by an Insulindian regime friendly with us, or at least hostile to the Germans, it will open up a world of opportunities to disrupt the flow of German and Entente trade in East Asia, a critical theatre for German rare materials and economic interests. Similarly, a liberated Indochina, Malaya or similar power could apply more minor pressure in that direction. This would likely prompt Japan to make significant moves against Germany.
Overall Strategic Priorities and Considerations
We’re backed into a corner, and we must find our way out or potentially see our revolution extinguished. For the sake of all peoples of all times who slowly grasped their way into the light, we must never let the torch fall.
The German behemoth sits and glowers from across the Moselle, awaiting our challenge from its throne of colonial pillage. However, that is a challenge that we must admit we cannot face head-on. We must be like the Spanish bullfighter, and dodge their clumsy advance in order to tire them out, much as they did to our fathers in 1918. This time, we have the time and political will to prepare a comprehensive strategy of resistance and attrition, directed towards denying Germany the ability to acquire the resources vital to war production for long enough to wear their warmaking capabilities down to the nub. To accomplish this, we must somehow keep the biting dogs of the old order off our backs, and gain far more allies than we currently possess.
First and foremost, we must find some way to regain Haute-Savoie from Switzerland, for it contains significant hydroelectric capacity that will prove essential to keep our coal-starved industry afloat in the future. This should be undertaken primarily as a diplomatic endeavor, as it is unlikely that the Swiss would desire a war given their unique political fragility at this juncture. A mutual trade treaty could gain us access to Swiss financial instruments, allowing us to far more easily bankroll revolutionary organizations worldwide. It could also potentially open up Switzerland to syndicalist influence, at minimum keeping them neutral and perhaps even flipping them to our side in the future.
The main German border must be well-fortified. We saw the vast difference in casualty counts when defensive fortifications were a crucial part of a given Weltkrieg battle, especially in Verdun. As such, a massive defensive bulwark should be constructed to shield the remainder of the Lorraine upwards to Sedan, with slightly sparser fortifications across the front from Sedan to the sea. This defensive network will save troops for an effective push into Flanders-Wallonia just west of the Ardennes, where it is possible that more mobile forces could seize Mons and Charleroi and push up towards Namur, with the ultimate goal being Liège. While it would be preferable to take advantage of Syndicalist support amongst Walloons before an actual war broke out, this is unlikely to be possible. That said, a radical shortening of the German front should be prioritized, in order to reduce the effectiveness of their numerical advantage.
Other key points of focus should be the English Channel, through which we will be able to choke and reroute a huge amount of German trade, and its sister the North Sea. Shetland provides for a considerable power projection capacity, but securing Bergen across the waves via alliance or occupation would be decisive in culling German abilities to trade overseas, choking them on their own colonial reliance. Even if Norway were hostile or invaded by a superior hostile power, it would be plausible to hold a critical logistical choke point in Vossevangen and either force the Germans to sally out with the Hochseeflotte to be subjected to naval bomber attacks, or make them assemble a logistically strenuous force in Norway, away from the frontline.
In a similar vein, we must keep the Danish North Atlantic neutral or otherwise bring it into our hands, to prevent it from providing key bases for bombing raids and submarine traffic. Weather stations in Greenland, or perhaps secret autonomous or one-man stations in Labrador, would allow us to have advance notice of the weather on par with the Entente, nullifying their main informational advantage at sea. For similar reasons, Ireland must be kept neutral or brought into an alliance in order to prevent circumvention of our wartime air blockade.
Mexico is our only hope for a reliable partner to fill our military need for oil production, and so access to Mexico must be maintained as best we can. This will require taking express aim at Entente possessions in the Caribbean, which are already seething hotbeds of political and racial resentment. If we can make a power play to secure a gap, we will be able to hold it open against Entente air and naval counterattacks, hopefully allowing enough oil to get through in the process to facilitate our war machines.
In Spain lies our most troublesome quandary: Gibraltar and the Canaries. With them, German trade suffers a critical secondary blow, Internationale trade is greatly secured from commerce raiding in the Atlantic, and the French Republic is permanently crippled without outside aid. Without it, we are divided and damned. Gibraltar must be secured at all costs, and the Canaries as a secondary priority, perhaps even as a bridge to Madeira and the Azores as major Atlantic bases. This means backing the CNT-FAI with all possible political, economic and military aid we can, to ensure their success. With Spain, our revolution in Europe lives or dies.
In Italy, things are bad but not quite so pressing. The Po River is horrific ground on which to meet an advance, with the Alps being far more to Italy’s advantage should Austria join her old German ally. Additionally, the Two Sicilies are poised to join our enemies should they believe it to their advantage, and it is proposed that some form of attack to eliminate their warmaking capabilities should be committed to before that is possible. Corsica and Sardinia, meanwhile, present a direct threat to the Internationale’s flank, leaving the critical southern ports of Marseille, Toulon, Nice, Genua and La Spezia exposed. If Corsica could be cut off or liberated by diplomatic or economic means without resorting to war, it would greatly relieve the pent-up Mediterranean navies, allowing them to effectively stand off against the French “Republic” and any German forces tasked to the Mediterranean.
Critical natural resources, including almost all of our copper imports, come from Chile. In order to secure Chile, we must secure Argentina. We must strike immediately, while the present regime is scrambling to put down their own even more reactionary navy! Securing Argentina will place another economic arrow in our quiver and remove it from Germany’s. It can provide much of the necessary food to sustain our war effort, especially if combined with victory or intervention in Brazil.
More broadly, Latin America is both receptive to our ideals and filled with war-critical resources that haven’t been monopolized by German tyrants or Entente corporations. Brazil is by far the greatest priority, as a reliable wartime supply of rubber will be necessary in order to allow our scarce manufacturing sector to field more vehicles cheaply, and they have numerous other key resources in smaller amounts. Similarly, Peru, Bolivia and Cuba have very sizable mineral resources and rubber potential. If possible, any and all syndicalist or allied activity must be directed towards regime change that will secure our power projection and war supply in order to resist the menaces all around us.
The United States too is in turmoil, and could be ripe for change. A syndicalist Union is highly unlikely as an outcome, but supporting the SPA in their political activities could at least maintain American neutrality, and perhaps even a thaw that would open lines of credit and vast resources that would vastly buoy our war effort.
As for India, while it would be nice to gain more of their present iron and manganese production, the Indian Ocean is practically a German lake unless significant political change occurs. This rather limits our abilities to coordinate with our Indian allies, but it is worth trying to disrupt critical German resources in East Asia that help fund their vast imperial hoard. Disruption of German rubber production would also be excellent if possible, but as of now it seems out of reach.
Japan and Russia are both large powers with a mutual bone to pick with the Germans, but they may actually loathe each other even more somehow. As such, we cannot expect anything from the weakened Russian state or the isolated and resource-starved Japanese “Empire”. We must assume that we will have to go it alone if we wish to fell Goliath.
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020
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Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets
. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020.
Coronavirus fears spoiled a solid earnings season and will further dominate markets ahead - (Source)
The coronavirus outbreak ruined for investors what was a solid earnings reporting season and is casting a pall on forecasts for this quarter and the rest of this year. And now with most of the earnings season in the books, look for the latest coronavirus headlines to fill the vacuum and weigh on stocks the rest of the month.
Fourth-quarter profit growth for S&P 500 companies came in at 3.1%, and if the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate was 6.0%, according to Refinitiv. Just about four weeks ago, analysts expected a slight decline.
However, the deluge of solid corporate results was largely overlooked by investors who are focusing on the spillover impact from the coronavirus on U.S. corporations. Stocks post losses this week as a jump in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths deepened concerns about slowing global economic growth. Major U.S. companies including Apple, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble have sounded alarms on the disease, warning of a dent in profits down the road.
“The virus is totally underrated,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday.“What I think is a little too premature is they all presume that it is going to be solved within a foreseeable time frame. At what point do we say that many, many companies are going to be hurt by the virus [and] we’re paying too much for stocks.”
‘More cautious than usual’ Wall Street analysts have been quick to slash their earnings expectations for the next quarter in light of the fast-spreading virus. Expectations for earnings growth in the first quarter have been cut in half to just 3.2% from more than 6% at the start of 2020, according to Refinitiv.
Companies themselves are also lowering guidance for earnings growth in the near future. There have been more U.S. companies issuing below-consensus guidance for the next quarter than those with upbeat forecasts, marking the weakest ratio in a February since 2014, according to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America.
“While guidance is typically weak in the first quarter as corporates set a low bar, it has been more cautious than usual this earnings season, likely due to the coronavirus,” Subramanian said in a note.
Nearly half of the S&P 500 companies have cited coronavirus during their earnings call this season, according to FactSet. These companies’ average revenue exposure to China is 7.2%, compared to 4.8% exposure for the average S&P 500 company.
As of Friday, China’s National Health Commission reported more than 75,000 confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths on the mainland. South Korea has also reported more than 200 cases. Meanwhile, World health officials said the outbreak in Iran is “very worrisome.”
“Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season,” John Lynch, LPL Financial’s chief investment strategist, said in a note. “Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Earnings Season Observations
The recent news that technology giant Apple would miss its fourth quarter 2020 revenue targets has understandably increased investor anxiety surrounding the potential economic impact of the coronavirus (now called COVID-19). Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season.
“Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Despite slowing global economic growth, weakness in capital investment and manufacturing, a strong US dollar, and a huge drop in energy sector profits, S&P 500 companies are impressively grinding out 1-2 percentage points of overall earnings growth.” The fourth quarter earnings growth may cement the third quarter of 2019 as the trough, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day below.
Some highlights of this earnings season:
- Solid revenue upside. A solid 65% of S&P 500 Index companies have beaten revenue estimates, the highest level since second quarter 2018 and well above the long-term average at 57%. S&P 500 companies have produced a larger-than-normal nearly one percentage point positive revenue surprise and are tracking to a 3.5% top-line increase.
- Respectable earnings upside despite headwinds. The earnings beat rate at 71% is slightly above the 10-year average (70%). S&P 500 earnings growth has surprised by a solid 4.4% so far despite economic, currency, and commodity headwinds.
- Consider the energy drag. Though 1-2% overall earnings growth isn’t much, the gain is approximately 4%, excluding the energy sector.
- Sector standout. One of the most China-exposed sectors produced one of the biggest upside earnings surprises: Technology. Technology sector earnings growth is tracking to a 5% year-over-year increase, about 9 percentage points above prior estimates.
- Reassuring outlooks. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share in 2020 have only fallen by about 0.9% since December 31, 2019. Though these numbers may come down a bit more in the coming days and the China situation remains fluid, this modest reduction reflects U.S. companies’ resilience overall amid significant supply chain disruptions.
Election Year March: Performance Haunted By Steep 1980 Declines
Boisterous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-11.8%) from March 9 to the 22.
Normally a decent performing market month, March is somewhat above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since 1972. Due to a 17.1% loss in 1980, March is NASDAQ’s second worst month of the election year. Similarly, March 1980’s steep losses adversely affect Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices.
Performance Throughout The Presidencies
As markets were closed to observe Presidents Day yesterday and the 2020 Presidential election continues to ramp up, we thought it would be a good time to check up on stock performance during different administrations. In the table below, we show the performance of the Dow during the administrations of every US president since 1900 in addition to the annualized return. In the time since President Trump was sworn into office, the Dow has risen 46.9%. On an annualized basis, the 13.3% return places the current administration in 3rd place for the strongest performance. Only the Clinton administration in the 1990s and Coolidge administration in the 1920s have observed stronger annualized gains. The one caveat of course is that President Trump's term (or terms) has yet to end. Comparing Democratic and Republican administrations since 1900, Democratic presidencies have tended to average stronger returns than their Republican peers, so the stock market's returns under President Trump have deviated somewhat from the norm.
While it is impossible to say what a candidate's election will mean for the market, at the moment betting markets favor the incumbent to win the presidency while Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg go back and forth in taking the number 2 spot, hovering around 15%-16%. Come Super Tuesday (March 3rd) when we could finally see more clarity on the Democratic side, the back and forth between Bloomberg and Sanders might become more one-sided.
Yet Another Corona Friday
The major indices decided it was five o'clock somewhere right off the bat today as they experience yet another "Corona Friday". More concerns around the coronavirus have sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down around 1.1% as of this writing and the Nasdaq down nearly 2% today. Declines on a Friday have become par for the course in 2020. Fridays have been the weakest day of the week so far in 2020; the only one to average a decline. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.52% on Fridays while the next worst day has been Monday which has averaged a gain of 0.19%. Fridays have also been the day that the S&P 500 has closed higher the least. Only 28.6% of Fridays this year have seen the S&P 500 finish in the green. That compares to a positive close more than three-quarters of the time on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. While it has averaged a gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays have also experienced a positive close less than half of the time. Try Bespoke's premium research package for free for two weeks.
New All-Time Highs for S&P 500 and NASDAQ – Well Above Average Gains in Election Year
As of today’s close, DJIA is up 2.84%, S&P 500 +4.81% and NASDAQ is up a whopping 9.41% year-to-date. All three indexes are well above their respective historical averages for this time of an election year. NASDAQ has in fact already exceeded its average full election year performance going back to 1972. Bullish sentiment and momentum appear to be firmly in place and historical election year patterns suggests strength could easily continue for DJIA and S&P 500 into May. NASDAQ’s surge higher could be vulnerable to a retreat sooner, in March.
A Dow Without Boeing (BA)
For more than a year now, Boeing (BA) has been plagued by the 737 MAX crisis which has weighed on shares of the plane manufacturer with it now currently down nearly 20% from when the initial groundings took place on March 10th of last year. Despite this, while underperforming the broader market due to the 737 issues, the stock is actually still up just over 5% since the start of 2019. Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Even though BA has lagged, it is still the highest-priced of the 30 stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average. Currently trading around $338.50, the only stocks in the index holding a candle to BA are Apple (AAPL) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which also trade north of $300 per share. That means these stocks have the highest weighting in the index and therefore have a much larger impact than other stocks on the Dow's performance.
With BA's issues, a number of people have pondered the what-ifs for the Dow had the company not had the issues with the 737. Would we have already broken out the Dow 30K hats were it not for BA? In the chart below, we show the actual performance of the DJIA and have overlaid the performance of an 'alternate Dow' showing its performance if BA had not been in the index since the start of 2019. We used the start of 2019 instead of the actual date of the groundings as it is a little less arbitrary. By our calculations, while we would be a bit closer, even if BA wasn't in the index since the start of 2019, we wouldn't quite be at Dow 30K yet. As shown, our alternate Dow would be almost 1% or 266 points higher if Boeing was not included in the index since the start of 2019.
While BA has been a drag on the DJIA since last March, it also provided a big boost to the index in early 2018 before the 737 issues hit the stock. In fact, at the start of March 2017, BA was up over 36% YTD and the spread between the Dow's performance with and without BA was around 700 points in the other direction as it is now!
Another example of this dynamic in which high priced stocks have a greater impact on the index was observed on Tuesday when Apple's (AAPL) stock fell after the company warned that Q1 revenues would be shy of prior guidance due to the coronavirus. The warnings sent shares down over 3% at its intraday lows, but the stock only finished down 1.83%. While there were equivalent or larger declines like Dow (DOW) or Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) in Tuesday's session, AAPL's declines by far weighed on the index more than any other stock. Of the Dow's 165.89 point decline, AAPL contributed 40.35 points. Fortunately, UNH helped to mitigate some of those losses as it had a positive impact on the index of +22.79 points.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 2.24.20 Before Market Open:
Monday 2.24.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 2.25.20 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 2.25.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 2.26.20 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 2.26.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 2.27.20 Before Market Open:
Thursday 2.27.20 After Market Close:
Friday 2.28.20 Before Market Open:
Friday 2.28.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE.
Beyond Meat, Inc. $117.45
Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $79.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 58.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% below its 200 day moving average of $122.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 24.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Square, Inc. $83.49
Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.19 to $0.21 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.65% with revenue increasing by 26.54%. Short interest has decreased by 4.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.8% above its 200 day moving average of $67.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,991 contracts of the $87.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
Home Depot, Inc. $245.34
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $25.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.67% with revenue decreasing by 2.76%. Short interest has decreased by 17.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% above its 200 day moving average of $218.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,015 contracts of the $245.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. $33.87
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted higher by 237.0% from its open following the earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $4.75 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.54 to $0.55 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 20.29% with revenue increasing by 31.83%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $158.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,926 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
Baidu, Inc. $129.80
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.72 per share on revenue of $3.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 39.49% with revenue increasing by 0.13%. Short interest has decreased by 30.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $116.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,013 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, March 27, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
Macy's, Inc. $16.23
Macy's, Inc. (M) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $8.32 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.57% with revenue decreasing by 1.60%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% below its 200 day moving average of $17.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,128 contracts of the $16.00 put expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
Cronos Group Inc. $7.15
Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $12.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 192.38%. Short interest has increased by 28.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.9% below its 200 day moving average of $10.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,164 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. $0.45
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 128.57% with revenue decreasing by 30.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 66.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.6% below its 200 day moving average of $1.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,872 contracts of the $1.50 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.2% move in recent quarters.
Best Buy Co., Inc. $90.26
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.76 per share on revenue of $15.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.65 to $2.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.47% with revenue increasing by 1.95%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.3% above its 200 day moving average of $74.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters.
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