Broncos vs. Steelers Odds, Picks and Betting Preview

What do you think the odds should be for the bet: more points, loser of Saints vs. Lions or Total of Broncos and Steelers.

My gut would be somewhere between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 that the loser of the Lions vs. Saints would score more points. There is a good chance that the Steelers and Broncos combine for 27 points or less (20-7, 17-10, 24-3) and it is very possible they don't even score a combined 20 points. As far as the Saints-Lions, the Saints will score at least 24 and most likely get to the mid thirties if not the forties. The Lions might be held to something like 17 or 20 points, but the way they have been playing lately I would expect them to at least reach 27 points.
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NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020

We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.


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1. Arizona Cardinals


Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.

Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.

Bottom line:
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.


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2. Detroit Lions


Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.

Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.

Bottom line:
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.


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3. Miami Dolphins


Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.

Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.

Bottom line:
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.


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4. Los Angeles Chargers


Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.

Bottom line:
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.


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5. Washington Redskins


Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.

Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.

Bottom line:
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.


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6. Jacksonville Jaguars


Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.

Bottom line:
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.


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7. Carolina Panthers

Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.

Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.

Bottom line:
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.


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8. Cincinnati Bengals


Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.

Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.

Bottom line:
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.


If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Will the Baltimore Ravens win OVER/UNDER 11.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

The Ravens finished as the top team in the NFL with a 14-2 record. However, the season ended on a sour note as they lost 28-to-12 at home against the Titans in the divisional round.

Baltimore finished 1st in points scored and 3rd in points allowed. It doesn’t get any better than this!

Their running game was historically great! They racked up 206 rushing yards per game on average, while the second-best in the NFL was San Francisco at “just” 144…

Can they replicate last year’s success?

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Lamar Jackson was nothing short of spectacular. He was a lot of fun to watch. He was only the second unanimous MVP winner ever.

He ran for 1,206 yards, but he surprised many with his arm. He threw 36 TD passes versus just 6 picks.

While those numbers are jaw-dropping, I find it hard to believe he can be as good in 2020. Maybe teams will figure him out better and find ways to contain him. You cannot ask Baltimore’s quarterback position to do better in 2020 than they did in 2019.

Note that Robert Griffin III remains the Ravens’ backup QB this year.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards were a very good one-two punch (on top of having Lamar Jackson running like crazy). They will be 30 and 25 years old, respectively, so there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff.

At first, it was believed that Justice Hill might push Gus Edwards for the number two role in 2020. The fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma State had a good rookie season.

However, Baltimore’s backfield is pretty stacked with the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins. He is very likely to pass Edwards and Hill on the depth chart. It won’t be easy to unseat Ingram, though.

Dobbins rushed for over 2,000 yards last year, while also punching the ball in the end zone 21 times! He can also catch the ball well out of the backfield. He has the tools to become a three-down back in the NFL.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Not much change at this position either, except for the loss of Seth Roberts who caught 21 passes for 271 yards and 2 TDs. Not a big deal.

The top two targets will be back in 2020: Marquise Brown and Willie Snead.

Brown’ rookie season was a success as he caught 46 passes for 584 yards. He finished third among rookies with 7 receiving TDs. However, his college career ended with a foot injury and he says it hampered him at times during the 2019 season. He faded down the stretch, despite nice numbers in the lone playoff game. Indeed, he scored just one touchdown over the last six meetings.

Snead wasn’t particularly good. He ranked 101st out of 122 wide receivers by PFF. During the regular season, he cleared 50 receiving yards just two times. He caught 4 passes in one game, and hauled in 3 passes or less in the remaining 15 matchups.

Overall, this is a bit of a shaky group. Given his history, Marquise Brown is a likely candidate for injuries and if that happens, they will be in trouble at the wideout position. As mentioned above, Snead isn’t very strong. Seth Roberts is gone. And Miles Boykin isn’t scaring anyone either. Depth was clearly an issue here.

Most observers believed the Ravens would address the position in the draft. However, Baltimore waited until late in the 3rd round to pick a WR: Devin Duvernay out of Texas. He’s a slot weapon who caught 106 passes for 1,386 yards and 9 TDs last year. Obviously, the 106 receptions are impressive, but keep in mind that he benefited from 42 screen plays going his way.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

The team was loaded at this position with Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst. These guys finished 2nd, 12th, and 14th out of 66 tight ends! Having three of the top 14 TEs in the league within the same team is unbelievable!

Unfortunately, Hurst left for Atlanta. As good as he was, it won’t be a huge blow to the Ravens considering the depth they had.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

All guys on the offensive line finished above-average according to PFF. Unreal!

The bad news is Marshal Yanda announced his retirement, which leaves a glaring hole at right guard. Yanda played 88% of the offensive snaps and finished as the 4th-best guard in the league (out of 81 guys). His replacement will have big shoes to fill.

One of the main candidates to replace him is free agent D.J. Fluker, who is coming over from Seattle. The 29-year-old’s play has fairly dipped over the past three seasons after four promising years with the Chargers. Fluker graded out as the number 48 guard out of 81 players in 2019.

Still, this is a very strong group, but expect a dropoff compared to last year.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

How can you not expect this unit to decrease its production? They were unbelievably effective last year. They are probably going to regress towards the mean.

They didn’t add any key players on offense (except maybe rookie J.K. Dobbins?), while losing Hayden Hurst, Marshal Yanda and Seth Roberts. Teams have had several months to find ways to slow down Lamar Jackson and company. It’s highly unlikely that his numbers improve over the 2019 campaign.

Also notice how the Ravens’ offense didn’t suffer any big injury all season long to key players. It may not be the case once again in 2020. Injuries occur on a regular basis in the NFL.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

The Ravens had three guys on the interior of the defensive line: Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce and Chris Wormley. Each of them received “ok” ratings from PFF, as they finished 67th, 45th and 63rd respectively (out of 114 inside defenders).

Pierce and Wormley are gone. However, the team acquired Derek Wolfe from the Broncos. He recorded 7 sacks in 12 games last year and he ranked as the 46th-best inside defender.

Justin Madubuike was taken early in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. He seems like a boom-or-bust player. He’s athletic, but he is a bit short and light. He’s more likely to become a backup in the NFL.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Matthew Judon led the way with 9.5 sacks and Tyus Bowser got a career-high 5 sacks in 2019. Both are above-average rushers.

As for Jaylon Ferguson and Jihad Ward, they received fairly bad marks from PFF.

The Ravens made a big splash by acquiring Calais Campbell from the Jaguars. The 33-year old may slow down in 2020, but his numbers have been impressive. He has averaged 8 sacks per season over an 11-year period!

He’s also been extremely durable; he has not missed a game since 2014. As a matter of fact, he’s played at least 13 games in each of his 12 years in the NFL! He finished the 2019 season as the #2 edge defender according to PFF (only behind T.J. Watt from the Steelers).

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Patrick Onwuasor and Josh Bynes received a good share of playing time. However, both are gone. Onwuasor was the #73 linebacker while Bynes got a surprisingly high 6th spot out of 89 linebackers.

The only inside LB left with playing experience is L.J. Fort. He’s a 30-year old veteran who has played for five teams. He doesn’t look to be the long-term answer.

The good news is the Ravens selected Patrick Queen from LSU with the 28th overall pick last April. The main knock on him is clearly is lack of experience since he’s was a one-year starter in college.

However, his game film is impressive. He is very fast and he diagnoses plays quickly. He may be the only NFL-caliber linebacker the team has on their roster. It’s not as bad as it looks since Baltimore often plays with six DBs and one LB. Malik Harrison, who was picked late in the third round out of Ohio State, might get some limited playing time.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

The Ravens have a strong group here, even though Brandon Carr was let go.

The team still has Marlon Humphrey (37th-best CB), Marcus Peters (4th-best CB) and Jimmy Smith (42nd-best CB). Baltimore has a lot of ammunition and don’t need to worry about this position.

3.5 Safeties (S)

Earl Thomas is a safe value. He’s been consistently good throughout his career and at 31 years old he still has a few good years left.

Chuck Clark just signed a three-year contract and he deserved it. He really flourished in 2019 and finished 36th out of 87 safeties according to PFF. He is the main reason the team let Tony Jefferson go.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Baltimore’s defense allowed the third fewest points in the league in 2019. They are still going to be difficult to score against.

Calais Campbell was a great free agent acquisition. To a lesser degree, Derek Wolfe too.

However, losing Michael Pierce, Chris Wormley, Patrick Onwuasor, Josh Bynes, Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson will hurt. Most of these guys played about 50% of the snaps and will need to be replaced.

The team has little to no depth at linebacker. Patrick Queen has a lot of pressure on his shoulders to step in and perform right away in his rookie season.

Overall, I believe the Ravens defense will see a slight decrease in its effectiveness to stop opposing offenses.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Baltimore Ravens are expected to win 11.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results:

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 11.5 WINS 52.3% FanDuel +105 +7.2%
UNDER 11.5 WINS 47.7% bwin +100 -4.6%

Tip: Bet OVER 11.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +7.2%
Rank: 27th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -110

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Ravens’ 16 regular season games:

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

Tomorrow, I'll discuss the team whose ROI is 26th in the NFL.

Thanks for reading, I hope you appreciated this write-up!

Professor MJ
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Overrated and Underrated Week 3 Plays + TNF Matchup Guide - DFA

Overrated and Underrated Week 3 Plays + TNF Matchup Guide

Article by Roto-Wiz8
This Week, we will be highlighting a few players we think will outplay or underplay their Week 3 ranking. We will use the FantasyPros rankings (23 experts consensus) as our baseline, and telling you why we are bumping up or moving down these players; based on matchup, projected gameflow, vegas line projection, or analytical stats.
To be clear, we are not saying to start every “bump up” player, or sit every “move down” player. Our goal is simply to examine a few players that the consensus rankings may be too high or too low on based on our analysis.
Below this breakdown is our “TNF Matchup Strategy guide”, so make sure to scroll down for that! Our full Week 3 Matchup Strategy guide will come out in two parts, one Friday morning and one Saturday midday. Let’s get to it.
Players to bump up:

QB:

Kyler Murray vs. CAR (11) - Murray’s last 5-6 quarters of football have been incredibly impressive, after starting off miserably against the Lions in Week 1. He threw for 350 yards in Week 2, and his line would have been much better if not for 3 drives where Arizona kicked a field goal after getting inside the 5 yard line. Now playing as home favorites, likely against a Panthers squad without Cam Newton, Murray could easily see some positive regression in his TD totals. Carolina has been good against QBs, giving up the 6th least FPPG, but outside of James Bradberry (who may downgrade Kirk slightly) the secondary has received below avg. cover grades (PFF). Murray has been able to throw with relative ease against two strong defenses in BAL and DET, and Arizona’s pass heavy scheme ensures weekly volume. Larry Fitz and Christian Kirk have been excellent, and David Johnson is still healthy and involved as a receiver, so Murray has a lot to work with. If he gets involved as a runner, his ceiling rises even further. I have Murray ranked inside the top 10, and would feel very comfortable with him as my QB1 at this point.
Matthew Stafford @ PHI (17) - I don’t feel great about writing this as I am not a big believer in the Stafford resurgence, but this looks like a great week to play him. The Eagles have been getting gashed through the air, giving up the 2nd most points and 4th most yards to WRs through two weeks. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola have proven to be a solid WR trio, and Golladay in particular looks like an ascending talent. TJ Hockenson, while less involved in Week 2, is still a great middle of the field weapon and red zone target. Philly may be down a few weapons, but should still be able to put up points at home. The Lions have not had an effective run game, and the Eagles have been excellent against the run through two weeks, so I expect DET to attack through the air this week. Staffords volume may not be 45+ throws, but even at 35-40 he should be able to go 300+ with at least one TD against this defense. I have Stafford ranked in the 13-14 range, as a solid back end QB1 and top level QB2 start.

RB:

Devonta Freeman @ IND (24) - The Colts give up the 7th most receiving yards to RBs, and Freeman’s only positive so far this year has been his pass game usage (8 targets - 54 yards). They also have given up the 3rd most points overall to RBs, and if Darius Leonard is out with a concussion (in protocol still) that would be a further upgrade. IND has a very strong secondary, so Ryan may look Freeman’s way a bit extra this week. After two brutal weeks, we won’t blame you if you bench him, but if there was a week to start him, this should be it. If it doesn’t work out this week, it might be time to admit he’s toast. But if he does have a strong game, this could also be a sell high opportunity if a league mate thinks he’s fully “back”.
Carlos Hyde @ LAC (32) - The Chargers give up the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing backs, but are stingier in giving up RB receptions. This makes sense considering the Chargers interior defenders rank below avg. in defending the run (PFF). This sets up well for Hyde in what should be a close game. Hyde has consistently been explosive in the run game for Houston, and could easily get into the endzone this week. His floor is lower because of his lack of involvement in the passing game, but his likely 15+ carries make him worthy of a start at a thin position.
Frank Gore vs. CIN (33) - This one is purely based on matchup and opportunity. If Devin Singletary sits, Gore should see a minimum of 15-20 carries against a defense that gives up the most fantasy points to RBs. Some will point to the fact that Josh Allen rushes a lot in the red zone, and that is true, but the fact is the Bengals couldn’t tackle to save their life against the Niners last week. There’s no reason Gore can’t get into the endzone and put up 80+ yards on the ground. TJ Yeldon hasn’t been a factor the first two weeks (7 total snaps), and will likely be only a COP or passing back this week. Gore looks like a top 24 play, but just for this week. **Again, this is only if Singletary is out or limited. He missed practice again Thursday.

WR:

Marquise Brown @KC (28) - Week 2 was arguably more encouraging for fantasy owners of Brown than Week 1’s blow up game. He played a majority of snaps and saw 13 targets (4 more than Mark Andrews!) in a close game against Arizona. In what should be a shootout of two scorching hot offenses this week, Brown’s floor appears safe as the #1 WR seeing 8+ targets. And the real excitement comes with Brown’s ceiling, which he can reach with only one or two splash plays. Brown will get more attention from the defense than ever before, but KC’s boundary corners are not particularly imposing. He’s not yet an auto-start, but if you own him, this has to be a week that you start him.
Emmanuel Sanders @GB (36) - On paper this is a tough matchup for Sanders against a GB defense giving up the 4th fewest fantasy points to WRs through 2 weeks. But a closer look reveals the Packers have played an offense that can’t throw (CHI), and an offense that chooses not to throw (MIN). Green Bay has a fearsome pass rush, so if Flacco is pressured expect him to look for Sanders often on short to intermediate routes (Sanders through 2 weeks: 8 yard aDOT & 25% target share). With the Broncos as big road underdogs, there may be a lot of throwing for them this week. I would have Sanders ranked in the 22-27 range this week, and see him as a great WR3/flex start. As long as he’s healthy, it looks like he should be in your lineup.
Deebo Samuel vs. PIT (49) - This one is for deeper leagues, as it is tough to trust Samuel as a top 36 WR just yet. However, the matchup against Pittsburgh looks favorable. The Steelers have actually been deceptively stout against the run, limiting Sony Michel and Chris Carson to low ypc, despite still giving up the 8th most points to the position. They have been gashed through the air, giving up the 3rd most passing yards through two games. This is reflected in their PFF grades: their secondary has received below average grades in coverage (besides Steven Nelson), whereas their front seven has received relatively strong grades in rush defense, led by Stephon Tuitt, Cam Heyward, and rookie Devin Bush (PFF). Samuel led the 49ers in targets last week with 7, despite a blowout game leading to a high percentage of running to bleed out the clock. Samuel has great upside for big plays with his speed to break a long play, and getting shorter passes (2.7 yd aDOT) allows him to create in space after the catch in Shannahan’s offense. As SF’s top WR currently, I would have him ranked just outside the top 36, and he makes for a good WR3/flex in deeper leagues.

TE:

Delanie Walker @ JAC (11) - You probably aren’t excited about this game, and we don’t blame you. But read our TNF Matchup Guide below and see why we give Walker a matchup boost.

Players to move down:

QB:

Matt Ryan @IND (6) - He’s going against a strong secondary, and plays on the road against a team that likes to grind out games with their run game and good defense. These aren’t ideal circumstances for Ryan to have a big week. Having Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley give him a high ceiling every game, but if you have another top 10 option, it might be worth sitting him this week. With all the injuries at QB, Ryan is still a top 10 option this week, but I would have him closer to 9 or 10. The ATL defense is improving, with the return of Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, so this may be a lower scoring game than some would predict. He’s definitely worth a start, but it depends on your options.

RB:

Phillip Lindsay @ GB (25) - Playing as a road underdog against a good defense is not the recipe for success for most RBs. Lindsay’s involvement in the passing game mitigates some of that, but Royce Freeman has split the workload (including the pass game) evenly and firmly outproduced Lindsay on a per touch basis. The GB rush defense got gashed by Minnesota last week, but Lindsay has neither the role that Cook has, nor does he play in an offense that runs as effectively as MIN. Emmanuel Sanders is the only DEN player I project as a safe start against this defense, and if forced to choose, would go with Freeman over Lindsay. I would have Lindsay ranked closer to 35 this week, and wouldn’t be comfortable using him as more than a RB3/flex in deeper leagues.
Damien Williams vs. BAL (26) - Going against a good defense, at less than 100% and splitting carries with at least one other back, Williams is a risky play this week. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and we’ll have to monitor his status going forward. Even if he’s cleared, I would not be comfortable starting him outside of deeper leagues. He would rank in the 30-35 range for me, and if he is active after not practicing all week, it would be closer to 40. If everything breaks right and Williams practices this week, and McCoy gets ruled out, then he’s back in the RB2 conversation. But that seems highly unlikely at this point. Darwin Thompson may also get a crack at more touches, and he has the potential to steal some of Williams passing game work. Lastly, this should be a high scoring game against a BAL offense that is on fire, so KC will need to throw more than they will need to run. Williams has a bleak outlook this week, barring a big change of events.

WR:

Tyrell Williams @MIN (33) - The Oakland offense that started off with such promise against Denver has suddenly been hit by injuries. Josh Jacobs is questionable for this game, and so is Tyrell Williams,who is dealing with a hip injury and was limited in practice Wednesday. Likely to see Xavier Rhodes in coverage this week, Williams is a fade in all formats, especially PPR. Expect Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to see a good amount of Carr’s targets, and Williams to make a few catches but struggle for big production. If you start Williams you are hoping for a big play or two, and against Rhodes at less than 100%, that is a somewhat dangerous bet.
D.K. Metcalf vs. NO (35) - Metcalf has surprised many in the fantasy community through two weeks, posting two very usable lines of 10+ points in .5 PPR. After two weeks against below average secondaries, CIN and PIT, this weeks matchup looks much more challenging. He is likely to matchup with stud CB Marshon Lattimore for much of the game, and David Moore may return this week to soak up a few Wilson targets. As home favorites against a team that lost its starting QB, this projects as a game that SEA may run more than pass. Metcalf still has a good ceiling due to his success on go routes and the trust he has from Wilson, but he’s a somewhat risky start this week. I would have him ranked closer to 40, and would be hesitant to start him as a WR3/flex outside of deeper leagues.

TE:

Eric Ebron vs. ATL (12) - Ebron’s lack of snaps (less than 50%) and volume (7 total targets) through two weeks give him an extremely low floor. Additionally, ATL’s defense is much improved this year and the healthy return of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal make them stronger up the middle, where Ebron will go to work. The TE position is a waste land again, so owners may be forced to start him. But I have him ranked closer to 15, and would start TJ Hockenson, Jared Cook, and Delanie Walker over him.
Now to the exciting Thursday night game...

TNF Matchup Guide

Every week, DFA will produce a Start/Sit Strategy Guide for NFL Fantasy. We will breakdown each matchup and give valuations of each fantasy relevant player. Additionally, we will offer occasional upgrades or downgrades to specific players depending on their matchup, role in the offense, or the effect of projected game flow on a given week.
Keep in mind, one blown coverage can make a week, destroying any strategy - we are seeking to find the best odds of a players success. If you have questions about your individual lineup conundrums, you can always hit us on twitter @DFAroto! Or check out the rest of our content and rankings here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Titans ATS: 1-1-0 Jaguars ATS: 1-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Titans 20.25 Jaguars 18.75

Titans

The Titans came up just short in Week 2, but continue to look like a highly competitive team. Marcus Mariota’s target distribution through 2 weeks - Delanie Walker (6,6), A.J. Brown (4,5), Corey Davis (3,5), Dion Lewis (4,1), Derek Henry (2,3), Tajae Sharp (2,2), Adam Humphries (1,2). Going against a talented defense on the road in a Thursday Night game (traditionally low scoring), Mariota is a very dangerous low-end QB2 play. Rookie A.J. Brown (downgrade) has continued to look good, but in this offense his volume will never be high and he has a tough matchup against JAX’s boundary CBs. He also played only 45% of snaps last week, so he has to be extra efficient in his limited run. Corey Davis (downgrade) finally got on the score sheet last week with 3 catches for 38 scoreless yards. He played 83% of snaps in Week 2, but his 37 air yards were indicative of Mariota’s unwillingness to throw downfield. Davis will likely have a breakout game at some point in the coming weeks, he’s still very talented, but it will be impossible to predict. Adam Humphries (drop) is barely worth mentioning here, getting 3 total targets so far, and shouldn’t be owned in any league at this point. Because of the extremely low volume of this offense, and the tough matchup, these WRs all have far too low of a floor to be worth a start in any league below 16+ teams. Delanie Walker (upgrade) is the only pass catcher that should be in lineups this week. The JAX pass rush is very strong, and Mariota will likely look at his safety valve early and often. If TEN gets a passing TD, Walker is easily the odds on favorite to be on the receiving end. He leads the team in air yards, targets, and red zone targets. At a position where owners are just looking for a few catches, 50+ yards, and a chance at a TD, Walker is a top 10 option this week. Keep expectations low, however, Jacksonville has ceded just 6.5 FPPG to tight ends the first two weeks - holding superstar Travis Kelce to just 3 catches for 88 yards in Week 1.
Derrick Henry (upgrade standard) has gotten great volume through 2 weeks, despite the fact that in Week 2 the Titans were trailing for a good portion of the game. His 3 targets last week were somewhat encouraging, as it only takes one catch for Henry to pop a potential big play. JAX is a tough matchup, with a strong front seven and speed at all levels. But TEN is favored, and Carlos Hyde just ripped the Jags for 93 yards on 20 carries. Henry is a RB1/2, who gets a bump in standard leagues, and a slight downgrade in .5 or full PPR. Dion Lewis (drop) hasn’t been involved up to this point (5 targets, 6 carries) and the Jags don’t give up many rec to RBs. He shouldn’t be anywhere near lineups this week.

Jaguars

Rookie Gardner Minshew (downgrade) continues to show promise, performing well in his first road start against a solid HOU defense. They came up just a 2pt. conversion short of pulling the upset. Minshew’s target totals through 7 quarters - DJ Chark (11), Dede Westbrook (11), Leonard Fournette (11), Chris Conley (10), James O’Shaughnessy (8), Geoff Swaim (7). All three of Jacksonville’s starting WRs played over 80% of snaps, but Chark and Conley almost tripled Westbrook’s air yards with 73 each. It’s a small sample size, but Chark appears to be Minshew’s favorite target, and is the only WR we would start for the Jags this week. If you can avoid them all, you probably should. Dede Westbrook (bench) was barely targeted last week. DJ Chark (fringe start) and Chris Conley (bench) were more heavily used with 9 targets and 7 targets, respectively. Conley ended with more yards, but Chark was the recipient of the only offensive TD. Neither Geoff Swaim nor James O’Shaughnessy are viable fantasy options with both splitting time.
Leonard Fournette has one of the more bankable RB workloads in the NFL at this point, but he just hasn’t turned that workload into much production so far. His 6 targets per game are a huge boost to his floor, and even against an excellent Tennessee defense, he should be in lineups as a volume based RB2 with RB1 upside if he can finally break a big play and use his long speed. There is no relevant backup to Fournette, and Ryquell Armstead is one of the lowest upside handcuffs to roster in fantasy football.
Score Prediction: Titans 17, Jaguars 14
...
Hope you enjoyed our breakdown of what should be an interesting TNF game (take the under on points scored?). Check out our Week 3 stock watch report if you are looking to make some trades this week, and look for our Matchup Strategy guide Friday and Saturday for full analysis on who to start and sit this weekend!
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Week 2 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 2) - DFA

Week 2 Strategy Guide:

Link to Week 2 Strategy Guide (Part 1): https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-2-matchups-strategy-guide-part-1
Every week, DFA will produce a Start/Sit Strategy Guide for NFL Fantasy. We will breakdown each matchup and give valuations of each fantasy relevant player. Additionally, we will offer occasional upgrades or downgrades to specific players depending on their matchup, role in the offense, or the effect of projected game flow on a given week.
Matchups are written by Roto_G and Roto-Wiz8.
Keep in mind, one blown coverage can make a week, destroying any strategy - we are seeking to find the best odds of a players success. If you have questions about your individual lineup conundrums, you can always hit us on twitter @DFAroto! Or check out the rest of our content and rankings here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/
ATS=Against the Spread
Roto-Wiz8:

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Giants

Bills ATS: 1-0-0 Giants ATS: 0-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Bills 21.25 Giants 22.75

Bills

Buffalo’s come from behind win was one of the more exciting finishes of Week 1, and although Josh Allen was far from perfect, he showed some nice chemistry with his new weapons. Allen’s target distribution - John Brown (10), Cole Beasley (9), Devin Singletary (6), Zay Jones (5). Allen ended with a solid fantasy line, but is not yet a top level QB1. But after watching Dak carve up this same Giants defense, owners of Allen should feel comfortable with him in lineups for at least this week. He’s a better option than some QBs with tough matchups like Murray this week, but shouldn’t be put in over elite QB1s. John Brown (upgrade) gets a matchup against a leaky secondary, and his matchups will likely allow him to get deep at least once or twice. A perfect match with Josh Allen’s rocket arm, Brown makes for a solid WR2 this week, and gets an upgrade from CB DeAndre Baker and FS Antoine Bethea’s below average grades in coverage. Cole Beasley (upgrade PPR) is only an option in deeper leagues, and his lack of upside makes him only worth a start for those in dire need of a high floor but low ceiling option. There are no other fantasy relevant players in this passing game, as Zay Jones will not get the consistent looks to be startable with Brown healthy.
Devin Singletary surprisingly did not receive a touch until the second half, but still managed to play 70% of snaps in Week 1. Once he got his opportunities, he promptly turned 4 carries into 70 rushing yards. Frank Gore could only plod his way to 20 yards on 11 carries, and TJ Yeldon only played 1 snap the entire game. Head Coach Sean McDermitt confirmed Gore remains the starter, but Singletary is the favorite to be the most productive back in this offense. Even on 10-15 touches, he could easily put up 75+ yards from scrimmage, and would become an RB2 if he can take a bigger piece of the pie. For this week, Singletary is safe to use as a flex, especially considering the likely positive game script for the Bills.

Giants

We got our first taste of Danny Dimes last week in garbage time, but the Giants will still be trotting out Eli Manning to start Week 2. The Giants target distribution last week - Evan Engram (14), Cody Latimer (8), Sterling Shepard (7), Saquon Barkley (6), Bennie Fowler (5). Manning continues to look like he’s on his last legs as a starter, and it is a matter of if not when he is benched for Daniel Jones. He should not be near fantasy lineups, especially against an above average Bills’ defense. Sterling Shephard has been ruled out with a concussion, which locks in Evan Engram (upgrade) into an even bigger workload. Despite Buffalo’s stifling defense, Engram will get the volume to be a top 5 TE play this week. For owners desperate to start a Giants receiver (which might lead to an ulcer) Cody Latimer is the best bet. His 164 air yards easily led the team last week, and he produced 74 yards. He’s a low end WR3/4 against this Bills D, but is the only potential start out of the Giants WR corps.
Saquon Barkleydominated backfield snaps (80%) as should be expected, and will remain a top 3 RB play regardless of matchup. The Bills were able to keep Le’Veon Bell to only 3.5 ypc, and have a strong defensive front seven. Barkley’s volume and talent give him a high floor, but his efficiency may take a hit until the Giants make the switch to Daniel Jones and have a more functional offense. Owners should be hoping the switch happens soon, and that he can follow through on his preseason flashes of quality.
Score prediction: Bills 21, Giants 13

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Washington Redskins

Cowboys ATS: 1-0-0 Redskins ATS: 1-0-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 26 Redskins 20.5

Cowboys

Kellen Moore had an excellent debut as offensive coordinator in Dallas’ Week 1 demolition of the Giants. Moore found the perfect balance between the run and pass, and just may be the director needed to unlock the true potential of this offense. Dak Prescott’s target distribution - Amari Cooper (9), Michael Gallup (7), Randall Cobb (5), Jason Witten (4), Ezekiel Elliot (2). Prescott (upgrade) looked unstoppable on Sunday, picking apart the Giants defense with ease. With the weapons at his disposal, and an upgrade at coordinator, Prescott could become an every week must start. For Week 2, he is an easy target considering the matchup against a Redskins defense with an extremely vulnerable secondary. Consider him a high end QB1 this week. After watching Desean Jackson go deep for two TDs last week against this secondary, and Alshon Jeffery score an additional 2 TD, it’s not hard to envision Amari Cooper (upgrade) and Michael Gallup (upgrade) having similar success. Washington’s biggest weakness in coverage is on the deep ball, with safety Montae Nicholson grading out extremely low in coverage the past two years. This bodes well for both Gallup and Cooper’s chances to bust a long play, and the boundary CBs for WAS are not an imposing matchup. Fire up Cooper as a low end WR1, and Gallup as a low end WR2. Both should have big days unless the Cowboys get too big of an early lead and game flow shifts to the run game. Randall Cobb is simply a WR4/5 in hopes of some catches or TD, and gets a slight upgrade in PPR. Despite his Week 1 TD, Jason Witten remains just a low end TE2 due to his lack of passing game volume and short aDOT (.8 yards).
Ezekiel Elliott (upgrade) played just over 50% of the snaps last week after returning from his holdout. He had a productive game and figures to ramp up his workload a bit this week. He is a no doubt elite RB1 heading into this matchup, and should be in all lineups. His backup, Tony Pollard, played about a third of the snaps last week, and will remain just a part time COP back barring injury ahead of him. He is a top-3 fantasy handcuff based on his situation and clear talent.

Redskins

The Redskins got off to a hot start last week, in part because of Case Keenum’s largely impressive Redskins debut. Keenum’s target share in Week 1 - Chris Thompson (10), Paul Richardson (7), Terry McLaurin (7), Vernon Davis (7), Trey Quinn (6), Derrius Guice (3). Scary Terry McLaurin was one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, topping 100 yards and scoring a long TD off a Keenum pass in the first half. He arguably should have had another long TD, but Keenum overthrew him. McLaurin (downgrade) has an excellent season long outlook based on projected negative game scripts and lack of competition for targets, but this projects as a difficult game to trust him in. Although the Giants don’t boast a deep WR crew, the Cowboys absolute shutdown of their WRs showed the strength of their secondary. Jourdan Lewis showed especially well in coverage, and opposite him is Chidobe Awuzie, who’s speed will come in handy against the electric McLaurin. It would only take one long bomb for Terry to pay off, but it’s always a risky proposition to chase last week’s points. Consider him a WR3/4 with upside for the time being, and consider keeping him on benches another week if you have better options. Paul Richardson received a high target share, but did little with his opportunities. Slot receiver Trey Quinn (upgrade PPR) managed to score a TD, but was held to 33 yards. Both are too untrustworthy to consider plugging into lineups. If forced to choose one, we would lean towards Richardson due to his significant advantage in air yards over Quinn (75 to 34). In full PPR formats, Quinn gets a slight boost as he will likely get the short targets when the Redskins are in full pass mode if they have to play from behind.
After Derrius Guice’s meniscus surgery (projected 4-6 weeks out), Adrian Peterson (downgrade) will be back in the lead back role this week. With the Redskins as heavy underdogs, Peterson is a low floor play considering the likelihood he is phased out in a negative game-script. He is just a low end flex in this matchup. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR) has a much better outlook with his team leading 10 targets and 64% snap share last week. Expect a similar number of targets again this week, especially if the Cowboys take an early lead. Thompson will likely get at least 5-6 catches, with a sprinkle of carries as well, which buoys his floor and makes him an even more appealing PPR target. He’s a solid flex option this week that should be in lineups outside of shallow leagues.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2)

Saints ATS: 0-1-0 Rams ATS: 1-0-0
Projected Team Totals: Saints 25 Rams 27

Saints

New Orleans improbable last second game winning field goal made for one of the more exciting matchups in Week 1. Brees’ target distribution last week - Michael Thomas (13), Alvin Kamara (8), Ted Ginn (7), Jared Cook (3), Latavius Murray (3), Tre’Quan Smith (2). Brees carved up the Texans pass D last week, but faces a much more challenging matchup in the Rams. Additionally, Brees is historically more productive at home than on the road (as are many QBs), so owners should be wary of counting on similar stats from last week. He is still in play as a solid QB1, and it’s quite possible after watching Cam Newton bomb on TNF this week that it was Newton, not LAR’s pass defense, that caused trouble for Panther’s receivers last week. Brees top receiver, Michael Thomas, is an automatic start every week regardless of matchup. The Rams boundary CBs are solid, but not anything to worry Thomas owners considerably. Ted Ginn (downgrade) may get a lot of Aqib Talib this week, who mostly shutdown a similarly speedy Curtis Samuel last week. Ginn is hard to trust every week due to his lack of consistent volume, and the difficult matchup combined with a decrease in volume from Brees this week make him a likely fade. He’s no more than a low floor WR4 this week, worth starting only in deep leagues. Tre’Quan Smith is barely worth owning at this point, as he seems below Ginn in the pecking order. There are better WRs on the wire. Jared Cook may be in position for a bounce back week, but the matchup doesn’t look overly favorable after the Rams held Greg Olsen to only 36 yards last week. Cook is still a low end TE1 and should get more targets than last week, but can be benched for a TJ Hockenson or Darren Waller type. We still would expect Cook to outproduce his week 1 numbers by a good amount if the Rams focus their attention on Thomas and Ginn on the outside.
Alvin Kamara (upgrade) played on 76% of snaps to Latavius Murray’s (upgrade standard) 27%. This split seems about what coach Sean Payton will want moving forward. Murray will continue to get about 10 carries a game, and will be used in short yardage and goal line situations at times, but will struggle with inconsistency considering he needs a rushing TD to make for a valuable start. Be careful chasing Week 1 points. Kamara remains an elite RB1, whose usage should help to keep him healthy and put him in position to be efficient and productive on his roughly 20 touches per game. This week projects especially well considering the Rams were gashed by CMC last week, and the face the Rams appear more vulnerable to the run than the pass.

Rams

Goff’s target spread in Week 1 - Robert Woods (13), Cooper Kupp (10), Brandin Cooks (6), Tyler Higbee (5), Josh Reynolds (2), Gerald Everett (1), Todd Gurley (1). Coming off a down week in which he scored only 10 points, Jared Goff (upgrade) returns home for what should be a high scoring matchup. Considering the shootout potential, and the fact that Jared Goff was the best QB in fantasy when at home last year (by total points), he makes for a top 10 option this week. Robert Woods (upgrade) was the most productive Rams wideout last week, and if he can avoid Marshon Lattimore in coverage for large periods of the game, he should be headed for a big game. PFF projects Brandin Cooks to receive coverage from Lattimore, but unless he shadows him, expect Sean McVay to find ways to scheme him open. Cooks disappointed owners last week, but he should be in line for a bounce back week. Cooper Kupp (upgrade) will operate out of the slot as usual, and his matchup with PJ Williams is a distinct upgrade. All three are excellent starts, and we are especially bullish on Kupp considering how Jared Goff’s best games have correlated with Kupp’s best games. Look for Kupp to get on the board with 80+ yards and a good shot at a TD.
Todd Gurley (upgrade) looked explosive in his highly anticipated first game action since being phased out due to injury during the Rams Superbowl run last year. He took 14 carries for 97 yards, and led the NFL in yards after contact last week. He also played 70% of the snaps. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was his lack of red zone usage. Malcolm Brown, despite playing on only 27% of snaps, was able to garner to short yardage rushing TDs, leading owners to assume that Gurley will cede redzone work to Brown in most situations. While we expect Brown to continue to be heavily involved, and he makes for a high upside handcuff with low end flex standalone value, there is some luck involved with the split. During the drives Gurley was featured, the Rams either didn’t score or ended up with a passing TD. In the drives that Brown was featured, the Rams were able to punch it in on the ground. This situation requires close monitoring, but we still see Gurley as a low end RB1 and are hopeful that he will get some opportunities for high value carries. Consider Gurley a must start, especially after watching Carlos Hyde carve up New Orleans last week, and Malcolm Brown a decent flex who gets an upgrade in standard leagues. Darrell Henderson is a non factor at this point, playing only 3% of snaps last week.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Rams 31

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Atlanta Falcons

Eagles ATS: 0-1-0 Falcons ATS: 0-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Eagles 27.5 Falcons 25

Eagles

Philadelphia’s offensive weapons were on full display in last week’s come from behind win against Washington. Carson Wentz’s target distribution - Desean Jackson (10), Zach Ertz (7), Alshon Jeffery (6), Nelson Agholor (5), Dallas Goedert (3), Darren Sproles (3), Jordan Howard (3), Miles Sanders (2). Despite their overall slow start, Wentz put up an impressive Week 1 fantasy performance with 300+ and 3 TD. Considering the wealth of riches at the skill positions for Philly, Wentz is a weekly high end QB1. This week is no different. Although the Falcons did not give up many passing yards last week, that’s due to Cousins’ 10 pass attempts rather than some huge performance by the Atlanta secondary. He should be in all lineups this weekend in the second highest projected scoring game of the week. Desean Jackson (upgrade) proved he hasn’t lost a step by going off for 152 yards and 2 TD. Most will focus on his 2 long TDs, and those were impressive, but look closer and it becomes clear Wentz trusts Jackson on short and intermediate routes as well. He led the team with 142 air yards, but his aDOT was a more even 14.2 yards. That number accounts for the fact he was targeted at all different levels, not just on deep throws down the field. Jackson is a solid WR2 in a high scoring game, and his matchups on the outside and with deep safeties are not imposing. Alshon Jeffery was not as heavily utilized as Jackson, but his redzone opportunities more than made up for it. If Jeffery remains 3rd on the target priority, he will be more WR3 than WR2, as he won’t get in the endzone every game. But he should be in lineups in this projected shootout. Zach Ertz is a locked and loaded elite TE1, and Dallas Goedert is left to grab only scraps behind him. Nelson Agholor does not need to be owned as long as Jackson and Jeffery are healthy.
Last week showed the Eagles are yet again committed to a RBBC. Jordan Howard (upgrade standard) got involved on early downs, but ended with only 6 carries. His 23% snap rate was third among RBs. He looked excellent on his limited opportunities, and has a great chance to produce this week against a weak ATL rush defense. However, his role is far too inconsistent to trust outside of deeper leagues. He’s a risky flex with a low floor, but some good upside in this matchup. Miles Sanders (upgrade) got almost have of the snaps, and finished 12 touches. His TD run was called back for holding, but showed his impressive skills in the open field. He’ll be an upside flex option, who’s involvement in the passing gives him a better floor than Howard. Unfortunately for both, Darren Sproles involvement continues to sap their value a bit. Owners will hope that Sproles gets fewer touches as the season goes on, but as long as he is getting consistent work, this backfield is unlikely to produce a top 15 weekly RB option.

Falcons

Matt Ryan’s target share from last week - Julio Jones (11), Austin Hooper (9), Calvin Ridley (6), Mohamed Sanu (6), Justin Hardy (5), Devonta Freeman (4), Ito Smith (1). Matt Ryan (upgrade) basically bombed last week, but his fantasy line ended up mostly respectable. Going against an Eagles defense that just got burned by Case Keenum, and playing at his home dome field, expect Ryan to have a big week. Julio Jones (upgrade) had a low yardage week but got in the endzone, in a complete reversal of his early weeks from last year. Jones admitted he was still not quite 100% and a bit rusty after barely practicing in training camp, but he is in a great smash spot this week. He has historically had great success against the Eagles, and his 11 targets last week proved he is the clear lead dog even when things aren’t going well. If he gets more consistent red zone looks this year, watch out. Calvin Ridley (upgrade) should also be in line for a productive day, and will get good matchups in the Eagles boundary CB’s. Austin Hooper’s 9 targets gave owners belief that he can take another step forward into consistent high end TE value this year. In what should be a high scoring fast paced game, expect Hooper to be targeted heavily, and get at least one or two red zone looks. Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy are better real life players than fantasy producers, and neither are relevant as long as Jones and Ridley are healthy.
Devonta Freeman was one of the biggest disappointments in relation to his ADP in Week 1. The game script was negative right from the beginning as ATL was down 14-0 before they could even catch their breath. Freeman’s 50% snap rate could be shrugged off as merely a product of this game flow, but there are other concerning trends. Ito Smith was heavily involved, and at times even looked like the superior runner. He averaged over 5 yards a carry to Freeman’s 2.4. Smith also received a good amount of red zone work, and his 50% snap rate has to be worrying to Freeman owners. Freeman was the higher graded pass protector by a large margin (PFF) so he is certainly not in danger of losing his role on passing downs. However, for a guy taken in the top 40 of most drafts, it looks like we may be looking at a lower end RB2 rather than the low end RB1 that most were hoping for. Malik Jackson’s injury is an upgrade for ATL’s rushing offense, but this is all about volume. I would give Freeman the benefit of the doubt and start him in this likely shootout, but keep a close eye on Ito Smith’s involvement. Smith is nothing more than a valuable stash for Freeman owners looking to hedge their bets.
Score Prediction: Falcons 31, Eagles 28

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Oakland Raiders

Chiefs ATS: 1-0-0 Raiders ATS: 1-0-0
Projected Team Totals: Chiefs 30.25 Raiders 23.25

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes target spread from Week 1 - Sammy Watkins (11), Travis Kelce (8), Damien Williams (6), Demcarcus Robinson (2), Tyreek Hill (2), Darwin Thompson (1), LeSean McCoy (1), Mecole Hardman (1). Tyreek Hill’s injury was a big storyline from Week 1. He’s out at least 4-6 weeks, and Sammy Watkins’ (upgrade) big performance last week is a harbinger of things to come. Finally fully healthy, Watkins has top 5 WR potential as the lead target for the best QB in the league. He should be locked into lineups. Mecole Hardman (upgrade), despite receiving only 1 target, became an every down player and Hill’s injury. Although it’s tough to start him this week due to uncertainty of role, he needs to be owned in all leagues for his incredible upside in this offense. This would be a good week to start him in DFS, or deeper leagues for those in need of a Hill replacement, as the Raiders secondary has been decimated by injuries. If Hardman’s preseason performances are an indication, he should get a few high value looks throughout the game. Demarcus Robinson is a WR4 that may have some big weeks but will likely be too inconsistent to trust. Travis Kelce remains the top play at TE, and should be in line for a big week.
Damien Williams (upgrade PPR) 66% snap count is encouraging, but keep in mind Lesean McCoy (29%) has only been in KC for 2 weeks. If McCoy can carve out an even timeshare with Williams, both will be RB2/flex plays. In what projects as the highest scoring game of the week, start McCoy and Williams in all lineups. This situation is worth close monitoring for owners invested in the backfield. Darwin Thompson is only a handcuff in deeper leagues, and can be cut loose for more productive waiver options.

Raiders

Derek Carr’s target distribution - Darren Waller (8), Tyrell Williams (7), Ryan Grant (4), Hunter Renfrow (3), Foster Moreau (2), Josh Jacobs (1). Derek Carr played like a guy who is more comfortable in his offense after a full year to get accustomed. Despite losing his most talented weapon, Carr was more willing to take shots downfield and was sharp throughout. Against the Chiefs leaky secondary that allowed rookie Gardner Minshew to carve them up, Carr is a solid QB1 with potential to be a top 3 scorer this week. Darren Waller (upgrade) was Carr’s favorite target, and will be busy on short to intermediate routes as Carr’s safety valve. He gets an additional upgrade in PPR leagues, as he will see 6+ targets on high percentage throws virtually every game. Tyrell Williams (upgrade) showed great chemistry with his QB, and Carr’s willingness to make downfield throws has breathed new life into Williams’ value. He’s a high end WR2 this week with WR1 upside. His 17.9 yards aDOT makes gives his targets additional value. He only needs to cash in 2-3 of those looks to be worthy of a start. As the top outside option against a bad secondary, that should be extremely likely this week. Hunter Renfrow (upgrade PPR) will continue to get a few targets each week, but is not nearly as valuable in standard leagues. This would be a good week to start him in deeper leagues, but beware he’s not a consistent option at this point.
Josh Jacobs was a workhorse last week, with a 74% snap share, and with Jalen Richard receiving only 1 touch last week it would appear Jacobs has solidified his status as an every down back. The only concern this week is that the Raiders are forced to throw early and often in this one, which would decrease Jacobs’ rushing attempts. But assuming he remains on the field over Richard, his involvement in the passing game keeps him as a high end RB2. He should be in lineups this week, and owners will want to monitor if Richard gets more work in the passing game this week.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24
Roto_G:

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Seahawks ATS: 0-1-0 Steelers ATS: 0-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Seahawks 21.5 Steelers 25.5

Steelers

The Steelers looked like a different team without Antonio Brown, struggling to move the ball and lacking big play ability in Week 1 against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Ben Roethlisberger’s (upgrade) Week 1 target distribution - Donte Moncrief (10), JuJu Smith-Schuster (8), James Washington (6), Ryan Switzer (6), Diontae Johnson (5), James Connor (4), Vance McDonald (4), Johnny Holton (2), Jaylen Samuels (2). Big Ben looked awful in Week 1, as did the rest of the team. If you started him, it’s probably hard to trust him this week even with a good matchup against a Seahawks secondary that allowed Andy Dalton to roll up 418 passing yards and two touchdowns. Ben sits on the QB1 borderline in what projects to be a bounce week for the Steelers. He is historically much more productive in fantasy when at home. Donte Moncrief surprisingly drew more targets than Juju Smith-Schuster, and did absoluting nothing with them - grabbing an abysmal 3 of 10 targets for 7 yards and dropped a touchdown in the 3rd quarter. The target share was probably a symptom of the Patriots taking away the Steelers best wide out and forcing the others to beat them - a classic Belichick move. Moncrief is a WR4 and a risky play moving forward. Juju figures to command the lion's share of targets in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and remains a WR1 against the underwhelming Seahawks cornerbacks. James Washington drew the second most Air Yards in Week 1 with 169, only behind DeAndre Hopkins (216). The issue with Washington is going to be snap rate, as he only saw 52% while Moncrief and Juju saw 90% each. Washington remains a boom or bust WR4 this week but after what John Ross did to the Hawks, it seems more likely he booms.
James Connor is locked into the workhorse role, seeing 32 snaps compared to Jaylen Samuels 23 in a negative game script Week 1. He also out touched Samuels 14 to 3. Connor is an RB1 in a touch matchup (Seattle allowed only 8 fantasy points to Cincinnati). The matchup may not be as imposing as the stats suggest - Joe Mixon was injured in Week 1 and the Bengals adopted to pass most of the game, throwing 52 times vs 13 rushing attempts.

Seahawks

The Seahawks again look to be an extremely run-heavy team in 2019 and Russel Wilson's (upgrade) target distribution should set off alarm bells for owners who invested in the Seahawks receivers. Wilson's targets Week 1 - Chris Carson (7), D.K. Metalf (6), Nick Vannett (2), Tyler Lockett (2), Will Dissly (2). A popular 4th round pick in fantasy drafts, Tyler Lockett (upgrade) made the most of his targets, netting a catch for 44 yards. Owners are probably ready to press the eject button, but not so fast - inside receivers have feasted on the Steelers defense the last few years. In Week 1, Phillip Dorsett roasted nickel cornerback Mike Hilton, who will be Locketts primary defender, several times en route to a 95 yard, two touchdown day. Lockett is still a WR2 and expect him to bounce back, he also mentioned after the Bengals game that he was doubled several times in that game, something he said he hadn’t seen since college. Keep in eye on Lockett’s status as he has missed a couple practices this week, but there is nothing to suggest he is in danger of missing Week 2. Maybe the double team on Lockett is why D.K. Metcalf saw the most targets of the receivers. Either way, Metcalf remains a touchdown dependant WR4 and is a risky high ceiling low floor play. David Moore is expected to remain sidelined for a couple more weeks and Jaron Brown should be a non-factor. Will Dissley and Nick Vannett are not recommended tight end options in any format.
Chris Carson (upgrade) is locked and loaded as the workhorse for the Hawks and is a solid RB1 in a good matchup. The Steelers defense gave up 99 yards on the ground to New England Week 1, but this could have been higher had the Patriots not shredded them through the air instead. Carson will see the volume, passing game work and goal line touches to make him matchup proof; he is shaping up to be one of the steals of fantasy drafts in 2019. Rashaad Penny is no more than a handcuff/bench stash, it’s possible that Penny may be more involved as the season progresses but can’t be trusted in lineups for now.
Score Prediction: Steelers 24 Seahawks 21

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

Bears ATS: 0-1-0 Broncos ATS: 0-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Bears 24 Broncos 21.5

Bears

In an absolute bore of an NFL opener for fans, the Bears lost to the Packers 10 - 3. Mitchell Trubisky’s (downgrade) target distribution Week 1 - Allen Robinson (13), Tarik Cohen (10), Mike Davis (7), Taylor Gabriel (5), Cordarrelle Patterson (3), Adam Shaheen (2), Javon Wims (2), Anthony Miller (1). Trubisky looked awful last week and it stands to reason that Matt Nagy will try to establish the run game in Week 2. The Bears only ran the ball 15 times vs 45 pass attempts in Week 1 and the opposite is expected moving forward. Trubisky is no more than a high floor QB2. Rotoworld projects Allen Robinson to be shadowed by Chris Harris Jr while PFF does not project shadow coverage. Either way, Robinson will look to produce in another projected low scoring game and remains a WR2. Tarik Cohen (upgrade PPR) looked more like the starting slot receiver than a running back and figures to be heavily utilized again in the short passing game. Maybe he was used in the slot so much because Anthony Miller is making his way back from injury, but Miller isn’t a viable option until he receives a larger portion of the target share and proves he’s fully healthy. The Bears do not have a recommended tight end play.
Mike Davis looked like the starting running back or at least the lead back in the RBBC Week 1. David Montgomery inexplicably only received 28 snaps, compared to 51 for Cohen and 41 for Davis. Montgomery passed the eye test and looked like the more explosive back, but Mike Davis is apparently the best pass blocker of the three. It appears Montgomery will be extremely sensitive to game-script and when the Bears look to pass, it will be Davis on the field. Davis and Montgomery are both extremely hard to trust this week due to uncertainty of role, and hopefully Nagy comes to his senses and tries to establish the run and rely on the defense instead of Trubisky’s arm.

Broncos

The Broncos were upset by the Raiders last week. It was especially surprising to see considering the Raiders perceived dysfunction during the Antonio Brown saga, plus the inside the organization look during HBO’s Hard Knocks. Joe Flacco’s target distribution Week 1 - Courtland Sutton (8), Emmanuel Sanders (7), Phillip Lindsay (6), Noah Fant (5), Daesean Hamilton (4), Royce Freeman (1). No shadow matchups are expected, but the entire Denver offense receives a downgrade due to playing the Bears vaunted defense. The game is expected to be a defensive slugfest and the Denver offense should be faded if possible. Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders sit on the WR3/WR4 borderline in an extremely tough matchup. Keep in mind that this is the secondary that limited Aaron Rodgers to 203 yards passing and one touchdown Week 1. Noah Fant looked good last week and along with TJ Hockenson, is trying to buck the trend that rookie tight ends don’t produce. This isn’t the time to get cute and play him, he’s no more than a bench stash.
Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) ** and **Royce Freeman split carries in Week 1, with Lindsay getting 11 to Freeman’s 10. The RBBC is in full-effect in Denver and when Theo Reddick returns from injury this backfield will become extremely crowded. Neither Freeman or Lindsay are recommended plays this week against a ferocious Bears defense, but Lindsay receives the slight upgrade due to his involvement in the passing game. The Broncos will mostly likely utilize shorts passes to try and move the ball against. Moving forward it’s going to be extremely hard to recommend either, as they are siphoning value away from each other.
Score Prediction: Bears 27 Broncos 17

Cleveland Browns (-6.5) at New York Jets

Cleveland ATS: 0-1-0 Jets ATS: 0-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.25 Jets 18.75

Browns

The Browns have now lost 13 opening games in a row, an NFL record. I wish I had heard about the streak before making them my survivor pool pick… Baker Mayfield’s target distribution in Week 1 - Odell Beckham Jr (11), Jarvis Landry (7), David Njoku (6), Nick Chubb (4), Rashard Higgins (3), Dontrell Hillard (2), D’ernest Johnson (2), Damion Ratley (2), Demetruis Harris (1). The Browns struggled in Week 1 and no fantasy player boomed and most were left with mediocre days. Odell Beckham Jr (upgrade) will likely be facing Trumaine Johnson, Rotoworld projects shadow coverage while PFF does not. This is a matchup that OBJ can win as Johnson graded out as ‘below average’ (PFF) in coverage Week 1, and the deep ball would be aided if LB C.J. Mosley and DT Quinnen Williams sit. Odds are that the Browns get back on track this week and OBJ finds the endzone for the first time as a Brown wearing his $190,000 watch. Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) faces an exploitable matchup against SCB Brian Poole and will remain a low-end WR2. Rishard Higgins draws the best matchup of the three against Darryl Roberts and remains in WR4 consideration. David Njoku caught a touchdown last week and was targeted enough to remain a TE1. He may be a bit touchdown dependant but you could do worse at the position.
Nick Chubb to the dismay of fantasy owners was not on the field for the red zone rush attempt of the season for the Browns, rather, Dontrell Hilliard punched the ball in for a touchdown. This should not be a regular occurrence as Hilliard only saw 13 snaps to Chubb’s 51. Look for Chubb along with the rest of the Browns to get back on track this week - the Jets were steamrolled for 128 yards on the ground against the Bills and Chubb is in the mix for the overall RB1 finish in Week 2.

Jets

It’s been announced that Sam Darnold has mononucleosis and will miss a significant chunk of time, a crushing blow for an organization that was expected to improve in 2019. It’ll be the Trevor ‘Checkdown’ Siemian show for Monday Night Football; this is an obvious downgrade for the entire Jets offense. Jamison Crowder (upgrade PPR) figures to be a safety valve for the former Broncos quarterback and should see plenty of volume. Robbie Anderson (downgrade) draws a tough matchup in Denzel Ward - with the backup QB’s inability to throw the deep ball, Anderson is a fade for the foreseeable future. Quincy Enunwa’s season has been cut short with a neck injury and he has been placed on IR. Recently acquired Demaryius Thomas will slide into the starting lineup and isn’t a fantasy option. Tight end Ryan Griffin appears to be at the bottom of the target totem pole and owners will most likely find success looking elsewhere for production. There is a chance he is an active target against a Browns defense that was destroyed by Delanie Walker last week, but it’s a risky endeavor to play him. Chris Herndon is eligible to return from suspension Week 6.
Le’veon Bell (limited in practice Friday) had a precautionary MRI on his shoulder early in the week but appears to be on track for Week 2. The Titans ground attack absolutely ripped the Browns in Week 1 to the tune of 123 rushing yards. Bell should see the volume to produce as an RB1 and will be heavily involved in the short passing game as well. With Bell healthy, Ty Montgomery should remain on benches as a handcuff.
Score Prediction: Browns 27, Jets 17
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Official /r/NFL Week 0 Power Rankings

Welcome back to your official /NFL Power Rankings! 8 years ago, when /NFL was just a baby, these rankings began and as the sub has grown, we have been proud to remain one of it's most popular fixtures. Although many things of changed, our mission remains the same: to provide /NFL with rankings and analysis created by the users for the users. <3 31/32 rankers reporting
An introduction for those new to this: Our system is simple, we have a fan from each team (somewhat randomly chosen over the years), and everyone ranks all 32 teams, and writes their team's blurb. We combine those rankings (tossing out the highest and lowest for each team to remove outliers), and that's the final rankings. How each ranker votes is in the link above, and that will be posted each week. Today, we're posting at 8pm Eastern to get the peak crowd, but these will typically be posted around 2pm Eastern on Tuesdays.
If we screwed something up, feel free to let us know and we'll try to fix it. If you disagree, start a conversation about why we're wrong. Most of all, have fun, since that's the entire point of this wonderful game!
Also please welcome Kijafa, JohnMacArthur, and (at least temporarily) Trapline as our newest rankers!
# Team Record Comment
1. Eagles 13-3 The defending Super Bowl champions will start the season with Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles at QB. While the preseason raised more questions than it answered, if the Eagles intend to repeat, then Foles will need to shine until Carson Wentz is cleared to take back the reins.
2. Patriots 13-3 "Each year is a new year, and each year has its own challenges. Again, each year we all have to regain our — to the best we can — our ability to perform our jobs. That's what I'm trying to do. I think that's what all of the players, all of the coaches, we're all trying to do that." - Bill Belichick.
3. Vikings 13-3 Last year the Vikings had two top-ten-graded WRs, two top-ten-graded TEs, a surprisingly decent O-line that ranked 17th in pass blocking grade and 13th in run blocking grade, and the #1 defense in the NFL. They followed that up this off-season by upgrading at QB, signing a pro bowl DT (making it six total pro bowlers on the defense), and got Dalvin Cook back. Last time they looked this good (in 2010), everyone died, the team went 6-10 and our stadium collapsed. So fans are all pretty excited to find out how they're gonna lose their seventh-straight NFC Championship Game.
4. Saints 11-5 The Saints come into the 2018 season with high expectations. Answering the defensive questions alongside the explosion of one of fantasy football's favorite new weapons caused a big stir in 2017 and had them a play away from a title game. On paper the only limitation to them is a Drew Brees regression, which they appear to have built contingencies for. They lose Mark Ingram to start the season, but have a pretty favorable schedule in those 4 weeks.
5. Rams 11-5 News of the Rams' big name signings and extensions were among the top NFL headlines this off-season, as massive improvements on both sides of the ball gives fans tremendous hope for this season. Still, an embarrassing early exit in the playoffs last year leaves them appropriately skeptical if this team can execute on their talent when needed. While it is nice to have a floor of 8-8, instead of a ceiling of 8-8 (Fisher scars remain), the goal is to play football in February.
6. Steelers 13-3 Straight to the point: Le'Veon Bell is betting on himself. He's betting that the Steelers will be lost without him. The Steelers are betting they won't be. The problem is that if the Steelers are right and James Conner is good enough to help the team win, saying "See, we told you so" doesn't build any good feelings with Bell and his camp. When you're starting a season, is this the kind of tension and drama you want?
7. Jaguars 10-6 The time for the Jaguars being the off-season darlings is over. It's time for them to put up or shut up. Duval vs. all y'all.
8. Falcons 10-6 A middling Atlanta off-season included not much more than signing depth players and retaining current talent. If Jaguargator9's preseason curse doesn't come to fruition, Sarkisian can prove he belongs in the NFL as a play caller, and Matt Ryan can stop throwing butt interceptions, the sky another disappointing loss in another Super Bowl is the limit.
9. Packers 7-9 With a significantly overhauled roster and a new defensive coordinator, it's an interesting time for the Packers. The Bears come to Lambeau with the highest paid defensive player in the league to face the highest paid offensive player. Predictions that the NFCN will be a bloodbath this year will be tested immediately.
10. Chargers 9-7 The Cal State Dominguez Hills Chargers FC find themselves in a familiar place when it comes to expectations for the 2018 season. Fans can get excited about the return of future HoFer Antonio Gates, but will he and the Chargers finally put the pieces together for a playoff run?
11. Panthers 11-5 The Panthers are one of the biggest question marks among the early season contenders. What will Norv Turner's new offense produce as Cam Newton works with DJ Moore and Torrey Smith? And how will the defense fair against the offenses of the NFC South?
12. Chiefs 10-6 There are a lot of question marks going into the season for the Chiefs. How will second year starter Patrick Mahomes play? Will the secondary be as bad as advertised? Can they survive their early season brutal schedule? What in the world is wrong with Eric Berry? Hopefully after Week 1 some questions will be answered, for good or for bad.
13. Titans 9-7 The Titans made a bold move by firing their coach after winning a playoff game at the end of last year. The main question is going to be how quickly the players can mesh with the new defensive and offensive schemes. The biggest area of concern seems to be the learning curve for Marcus Mariota with Matt LaFleur's offense, which can take some time to master.
14. Texans 4-12 Texans fans finally have the chance to attend the Electric Circus this year, as it looks like Watt and Clowney may actually be uninjured and on the same field at the same time. And thankfully it seems our long-running QB drought has ended as fans (and coaches) expect that Watson will definitely Be Someone this season, but with only a few games under his belt since his injury, it's too early to crown him the People's Champ because, as everyone knows, it takes grinding to be a king (even for first round draft picks). Will the Texans finally sip the sweet syrup of victory, or will it be another season of double-cupping disappointment? Only time can tell.
15. Lions 9-7 The Lions caught an early wave of hype after the signing of new HC Matt Patricia in February, but most have cooled significantly on them since then. Less than outstanding preseason performances and roster moves by division rivals have certainly overshadowed Detroit. It's important to remember the Lions did aggressively address their biggest weakness this off-season, however, and if there is significant improvement in the run game, it could change everything for this team.
16. Ravens 9-7 The biggest story entering the preseason was how first round rookie Lamar Jackson would do. But while he was having rookie growing pains, Joe Flacco had an excellent 16 attempts, and Robert Griffin III earned himself a roster spot as the backup. This high level of preseason play has become customary for the Ravens, with their 5-0 preseason following a couple of 4-0 ones, and increasing their preseason win streak to 13 games.
17. 49ers 6-10 Its rare that a 6-10 team enters the season with such high expectations, but that is the result of the season-altering trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. From 1-10 to 5-0, 2017 was a tale of two seasons. All the questions around the Niners boil down to one basic question: Which team will show up in 2018?
18. Cowboys 9-7 The makeover of the Cowboys over the past two seasons has been disturbingly drastic. Now boasting the youngest roster in the NFC, casual fans will probably struggle to name more than a handful of starters from a roster full of question marks. Committed to building through the draft, this year will serve as first indicator as to whether or not this will be a repeat of the 1989 rebuild, which looks superficially similar.
19. Bears 5-11 The Bears took advantage of their financial flexibility to make a huge splash by trading for Khalil Mack and promptly making him rich. While the Bears are far from in "win now" mode, it's clear Pace thinks the young core of this team is good enough to be in serious contention over the next few seasons. With new head coach Matt Nagy at the helm, the Bears could be in store for a surprising, exciting season, even in a stacked NFC North.
20. Seahawks 9-7 Seattle's certainly going through a changing-of-the-guard, and not just on the offensive line. No one can act like it's no big deal that the defense lost four (maybe five?) superstars over the last 12 months, but the Seahawks have previously shown that superstars can be made out of underrated late draft picks. On one hand, veterans bring stability and knowledge. On the other hand...
21. Redskins 7-9 The Redskins go into 2018 with a lot of uncertainty. Nobody quite knows what to expect from Alex Smith and the rest of the offense. Preseason injuries have already quelled what little enthusiasm the fan base had and there still exists a lot of ill will over the mismanagement of talent during the off-season. Simply put, this team needs to win or they may be back to the same old revolving door of coaches and QB's who came to Washington and failed.
22. Bengals 7-9 The Bengals, once again, retained Marvin Lewis in the off-season, a move that reinforces Mike Brown's love for the status quo. The Bengals may he slightly improved from last season, but likely not enough to be taken seriously as playoff contenders. Vegas has the win oveunder at 6.5.
23. Broncos 5-11 With a new quarterback, a revamped backfield, and a defense exchanging one criminal for another, the Denver Broncos look to improve off of their disastrous 5-11 campaign. Bronco Killers Alex Smith and Khalil Mack have gone East—where they can't hurt the Broncos anymore—creating a wide-open AFC West. Can the Broncos get back to the playoffs with Case? Or will the hopes of the mountain rest on $wag? Only time can tell.
24. Giants 3-13 New GM Dave Gettleman won the adoration of fans when he signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a long-term deal in the summer. That adoration, though, will quickly wear off if the Giants get off to a bad start in what's shaping up to be a brutal early season stretch of games. Time will tell if the moves done to address the OL were enough, and if the decision to keep Eli Apple in the starting lineup was a defensible one.
25. Raiders 6-10 It is only fitting that the writer of this blurb is over 30 and was picked up off the street last minute. The players are saying the right things after the departure of Khalil Mack, but fans are going into week one feeling a bit like they've just been broken up with. A week one win would do a lot to raise the spirits and restore faith in the new regime.
26. Cardinals 8-8 Many are counting the Cardinals out before the season begins, and Vegas has them tied for least wins with the Browns, Bills, and Jets. A coaching change, QB change, scheme change, and one of the league's toughest schedules makes some of that understandable, but nearly all the same pieces that made the team 8-8 last year are still intact. An opening home game against Washington should be a good indication of how the season may go.
27. Colts 4-12 After an off-season full of turnover as Colts GM Chris Ballard continues to remake the roster, projections and expectations are a mixed bag for the 2018 Colts. Pending Andrew Luck's continued health and a massive improvement in the coaching department, a 12-4 record and division title could be the ceiling of this young and talented squad. But question marks at WR, RB, and along each level of the defense could mean another top 10 draft pick come season's end.
28. Dolphins 6-10 It's easy to knock the team that spends the off-season tossing aside 3 Pro-Bowlers and bringing in some old war equipment and a receiver that only plays well during the part of the season that the Dolphins tend to watch from home, but the Dolphins are trying something that teams don't usually do, except for the Patriots: Building a team on players that want to work to win and put in the time during the week and during the off-season to win. Nobody that hasn't been to the Dolphins camp thinks they have a chance, but oddly, everyone that visits says they have something special. We'll see.
29. Buccaneers 5-11 The good news is that the Buccaneers exited the NFL preseason with as many ACLs as they had when they started. The bad news is that they're facing a brutal schedule and starting the season without their top quarterback.
30. Bills 9-7 After a brief 17 year misstep, the Buffalo Bills returned to their standard of excellence last year with a playoff berth in Sean McDermott’s first year as HC. The defense looks to be substantially improved, with the team retaining its elite secondary talent while adding several front seven players this off-season, so the fate of the season now lies in the hands of sophomore QB Nathan Peterman as well as the ability of newcomers at offensive line to step up and perform. A failure at either of these could very well spell disaster, but improvement from last year’s 9-7 record is highly doable if things go well for the Bills in these areas.
31. Jets 5-11 On this week's episode of Hey Darnold!, Helga Pa-Mac-i left no doubt that the future is now by naming Sam Darnold the week 1 starting QB and sending Teddy Two-Gloves to New Orleans for a 3rd-round pick. What does the season hold? It's all on Sam now.
32. Browns 0-16 Can we make it all sixteen games with the same quarterback? Can we manage at least four wins? Can we make it all year with our head coach? History says no, but history is stupid. As the saying goes "those who do not study history are totally OK and things work out great". Buckle up Browns fans, its 2018!
Edit: Slight changes due to last minute ranker showing up.
submitted by NFLPowerRankers to nfl [link] [comments]

12 out of his 13 Late Info NFL picks and easily winning 13 out his last 15 EXCLUSIVE RELEASE Free Picks!! RED ALERT NFL FREE PLAY RELEASE on the MIAMI DOLPHIN vs PITTSBURGH STEELER GAME SIDE AND TOTAL!!!!!

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(MIAMI DOLPHINS +14)
Going 3-0 in the NFL Last night, the Farts are on fire winning 12 out of his 13 Late Info NFL picks and easily winning 13 out his last 15 EXCLUSIVE RELEASE Free Picks!! Make sure you ride this flaming cloud to the bank as tonight Roarin Farts will be getting the geetus without compunction. Grab a life vest and get on the gravy boat as we sail these winners to a new land like Columbus did when Italy wanted Indian flavored marinara sauce!!
Going 3-0 in the NFL Last Night, Roarin Mac again has something special brewing in the gambling underworld and again he will break the books tonight in the NFL. After winning all of last night's NFL Exclusive Free Picks easily, the after shocks are still there, Roarin Macs contacts in Philadelphia have signaled a RED ALERT NFL FREE PLAY RELEASE on the MIAMI DOLPHIN vs PITTSBURGH STEELER GAME SIDE AND TOTAL!! McGuillaman has 2 major plays for MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL and late 2 team NBA parlay bonus wager pick plus a Early Easy Money World Series Winner, 2 Free MMA early plays, and a EARLY RELEASE MLS pick that will blow your high socks off!!
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Free WWE Professional Wrestling Picks

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Wager cut off: 2020 1st January 12:59 AM
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submitted by OpenVisionZ to sportsgambling [link] [comments]

Free Gambling Information and Exclusive Free Picks! (OCT 28)

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Roarin Farts has associates in LA staying at the same 5 star resort as one of a top Los Angeles MLS players cross dressing mistress and has over heard that the outcome of a certain match will be a toe nail biter. The associates have informed the MAC to go in heavy and on Tuesday, October 29 play the - (SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs LOS ANGELES FC OVER 3 1/4) -120
The Roarin Mac has been digging around his old contacts in Los Angeles and they have came back with obtuse but profitable information. The Los Angeles soccer fans are more than spiked hair, collared shirt lesbians and gender neutral actors screaming touchdown after goals, there is a seedy side of the cleats and LAFC forward Adama Diomande knows all about it. When you look at Diomande it isn't hard to imagine that he has probably spent many a sweaty nights with Democratic Donor Ed Buck. The truth of the matter is we do not know what Diomande is doing when he isn't kicking a soccer ball for LAFC, but we do know that in LA County the LGBTQ meth orgy wouldn't be official without a couple of diked up soccer players and a oiled up black Norwegian in a gimp suit! Take (OVER 3-1/4) -120 during the SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs LOS ANGELES FC MLS game (OCT 29) - (SEATTLE VS LAFC OVER 3-1/4) -120
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(Wager Cut Off: 2019 31st December 11:00 AM)
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It doesn't take much to find a couple of chubby high end hospice nurses to squeeze some information out of on the morphine levels of a deathbed celebrity. Here are the latest online gambling death picks from Raoarin "MAC" McGuillaman playable at MyBookie.ag and if you're a first time depositor claim a bonus - HERE and throw it on one of these guaranteed picks.
WHO WILL DIE FIRST?
BETTY WHITE -260 vs CAROL BURNETT +200
Carol Burnett should have died 20 years ago and Betty White is a "OGG" a Original Golden Girl, and OGG's die hard so the decision is easy!
CHARLIE SHEEN -200 vs MAGIC JOHNSON +160
The HIV Playoffs are going down between Tiger Blood Chuck and Magic Dick Johnson and this battle will most likely take a little while unless Charlie decides to relapse and we think black men live longer than white drug addicts!
The most anticipated free pick! - Bill Cosby is eating pudding behind bars while Harvey Weinstein is getting verbally assaulted by comedians at private events in New York, they both should have did the Polanski and moved to a place that embraces these types of men, France!
Wager cut off: 2020 1st January 12:59 AM
More free online betting information and free sports picks daily at OpenVisionZ.com
submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsbookReview [link] [comments]

Get Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers historic matchup records and real-time lines and odds before placing your next bet. Click here to see a full list of this week’s NFL betting odds and game previews. Broncos vs Steelers Vegas Odds & Game Preview. At the moment, the Broncos are barely hanging around the playoff picture in the AFC. The last month for Denver has been filled with close losses against division leaders. NFL betting trends The total has gone under in seven of the Broncos' last nine games. The total has gone under in 21 of the Steelers' last 27 games on the road. Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Odds - Sunday November 25 2018. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. The Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) battle the AFC West rival Denver Broncos (2-4) in Week 7.Thursday Night Football kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Here, we break down the Chiefs vs. Broncos Week 7 odds and lines, with NFL betting picks and tips.

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