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2.5 years and 145 backtested trades later

I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better)
During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets.
Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
Strategy
I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here.
As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
Sample
I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes.
My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs.
Units of measure
I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that).
Results
I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up.
Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance.
List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades.
For reference:
Thoughts
Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I've been thinking a lot about my own trading and have come to some harsh conclusions. It's time we discuss some hard truths about technical analysis, mechanical trading, and psychology I think many of us don't want to accept.

I've had a rough week and it sounds like I'm not the only one. This week has wiped out my gains since July 1st, and I'm finding myself ever-so-slightly in the hole this month so far. I've made money every other month I've traded, so I'm not writing myself off as a failure, but nevertheless, I've done some digging to try and figure out what I'm struggling with. I hope the following observations about my own trading resonate with some of you and can help us all become better traders.
First off: Fundamental/technical analysis. Since I started with forex a few years ago, I've put 100% of my time and effort into studying technicals. I think many traders, myself included, are drawn to technical analysis because we fall into the trap of thinking "If I just figure out what combination of indicators/chart patterns/algorithms work for me, trading will be smooth sailing." Being able to take a formulaic approach is incredibly appealing because it's much easier to simply check off a list of criteria than it is to interpret more nuanced information. For me, I found success drawing supply and demand zones, using Bollinger Bands to visualize market structure, and confirming reversal patterns with stochastics to trade from one zone to the next. I even studied the math behind those indicators to make sure I fully understood how they worked so I could identify their limitations, and for the most part, the strategy made money. Nevertheless, if I had a dollar for every time I take what I think is a perfect setup, then the market takes me on a wacky-ass ride of unexpected "crazy bullshit" that stops me out, I wouldn't be trading for a living. After some introspection, my conclusion is that those moments are not "crazy bullshit", but rather are the results of factors that fall outside of the (actually very narrow) scope of technical analysis. This has been hard to accept, as I previously learned technical analysis was perfectly viable as a sole perspective. I was taught that the market can be predicted based on analyzing past behavior. It seems obvious now, but when I think about it, no combination of chart patterns or indicators can predict next week's unemployment figures, interest rates, or what announcements (or blunders) world leaders are going to make on the global stage. Technicals work, but they only work when the market is reacting to fundamental factors, and as soon as a new fundamental change comes along, every bit of technical analysis used until that point becomes obsolete. What I'm trying to say is, at the very least, I need to be able to understand when, why, and how the game is going to change if my technicals are going to serve me. As such, I need to stop shirking fundamental analysis. It's time I start paying attention to that economic calendar and put in the effort to learn what each event means and how to interpret the results to figure out how the market will react. It's simply not as easy as looking at the technicals. It should be obvious that there's no magic formula to trading, but many of us try hard to avoid coming to terms with the fact that there's a lot more to "analysis" than just price action, risk management, and indicators.
The problem is we as traders want trading to be easy. It's a career that society glorifies, and even if we tell ourselves we know it's not a get-rich-quick scheme, we still want to "figure it out" so we can spend a few hours a week scribbling on our charts and making simple black and white decisions while we kick back and "live comfortably". And so we try to trick ourselves into thinking it is easy by endlessly parroting mantras like "Risk management is all that matters" and "Trading is 100% psychology" and "All you need to do is find the strategy that works for you and stick to it." The first two are certainly pieces of the puzzle, but there's so much more to the big picture.
The last mantra isn't even remotely true, and brings me to my second point, which thankfully is something I figured out early in my career, but it's too related to the previous topic to not mention: Mechanical strategies. The sentiment that you need to clearly define a precise, detailed strategy and always stick to it is another lie to make trading seem simpler than it really is. Even when I was just starting to demo trade, I was finding trades that would tick all the boxes outlined by my strategy, but my gut would hesitate. Long after I identified that problem, I also began to notice that I'd be forcing myself to hold onto trades, even if they were not moving as fast or far as I initially thought they would. Once I decided to leave room for my own instinct and discretion, I became much more successful. It's important to understand your strategy is a set of rules you yourself made up. If your strategy does not line up with your own professional opinion of the situation based on your personal experiences and observations, you need to find out why. Yes, you absolutely should draw on your past experiences and be consistent in how you examine the market, how much you risk, and what tools you use, but give yourself enough credit to form your own opinions. The market is not consistent. Do not expect to succeed by applying one cookie-cutter set of rules to different currencies, at different times, during different events. Long-term success in any other line of work is dependent on critical thinking and the ability to adapt to an ever-changing world, and forex is no different. It's not simple, it's not easy, and you will have to make difficult decisions.
This wound up being longer than I anticipated, so thanks for reading. I'm eager to hear everyone's thoughts on these topics, so please share them.
submitted by TheFOREXplorer to Forex [link] [comments]

Options for retirement saving for 51yo male non tax resident

OK gurus, looking for some opinions.
So I am 51, no valuable assets and divorced. My divorce ruined me and I am on track to break the $0 nett worth in Oct/Nov when I finish paying off my loans (excluding super and tax). I am an Aust non tax resident.
My Super is around $60K and my tax bill $35K which is paid the year after assessment at around $2.5K per month. I pay all expenses for my children who are living in Aus and have just finished paying maintenance to the ex. With current income and costs I will be saving a few thousand dollars every month which used to go to the ex and I need to invest for my retirement.
Option 1 (currently my preference)
Use the 10K + 10K Super to pay off my loans slightly early, then put those payments and extra savings towards a deposit on Uni accommodation as I am paying rent in Aust for my children. Move one child into the house and have their friends rent the other room(s) - child 2 continues to live at Uni for one more year. (Kids grew up in another country so Uni accommodation to help them get resettled back in Aus but price is exorbitant). This replaces current rent payments with morgage payments and gives me an asset.
This is based on expected property market falling around end if this year and the exchange rate also falling - both of which I think are good bets. I think the long term student accommodation will recover or raise slightly over time and the forex should work to my advantage if I borrow in local currency.
Option 2:
There are insurance products that if I stay a non tax resident for 10 more years anything I put into the product is tax free if I return to Australia.
Downside is I must commit to 10 years of a fixed amount per month and absorb any forex risk if I have to leave the country. If I stay in this country earning local $ this risk is abated somewhat but that is often at the will of the Government.
Option 3:
load what I can into an ETF
I think the markets will tank in the short term so would rather hold cash until early next year - I may miss a rally but I really cant see the economy picking up before then.
Option 4:
Selected stocks.
I work for a financial institution so I need to keep any stocks long term and need clearance for any trade. This makes this option difficult but possible if I dont do option 1.
submitted by AndrewTheAverage to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Rules for Trading Forex

Forex markets can be volatile and uncertain at the best of times, and inexperienced traders can easily end up chasing their losses. Yet it is precisely this volatility that gives you the potential for major profits. These 10 rules of forex trading may give you the best chance of landing on the winning side. Please remember, however, that trading carries a high level of risk to your capital, and profit is not guaranteed. Over 95% of all new individuals lose all their capital in the first month of trading forex

1. Avoid forex trading software that claims to guarantee returns

While you’re on the hunt for forex trading software, be sure that you’re not taken in by promises of guaranteed returns. There is no forex trading software that can assure you of winning trades. If there was, why would anyone sell it?

2. Always use a demo trading account

We’ve all heard that practice makes perfect, and it’s true. A demo trading account can help you improve your trading skills with virtual trades in real markets. Once you’re skilled at demo trading, you can switch over to real-money forex trading. And even once you’re using a live account, you may still want to use your demo account to try out new forex trading strategies. Of course, you should always remember that your performance on a demo account may not be replicated in a live trading account.

3. Forex trading can be highly stressful – avoid emotional trading

Whenever real money is changing hands, the risk of loss is ever-present. Therefore you should base your trades on considered tactics and strategies. To avoid being led by your emotions stay focused on technical and fundamental factors and market news at all times.

4. Invest in a solid forex education

Knowledge is power – we all know that. Ensure that your forex provider gives you access to tutorials, webinars, expert financial analysis and commentary, an economic calendar, graphs and charts, and even forex trading signals. All of these tools will work to improve your trading performance. The ultimate goal is to generate greater profits than losses over time, even if you have less winning trades than losing trades.

5. You can learn to trade forex successfully

No forex trading system guarantees success (see rule 1) but some may be used as reliable guides. If you learn from the experience of successful forex strategists, your likelihood of success is far greater. But remember, when judging the results of any system or any expert, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

6. Manage your forex capital wisely

The forex markets can change on a dime, as currency markets are often characterized by high volatility. If you have generated winning trades, be sure to manage your profits. Use stop-loss and limit orders, closeout positions, and hedge your exposure to the best of your ability. Be sure that you are in control of your capital at all times.

7. Manage your investment-per-trade wisely

This is one of the most crucial aspects of forex trading. Many traders fail to heed this important advice: Don't trade more than one currency at a time. Doing so puts you at a significant risk of loss. If you spread your investments over a wide number of trades, you limit your overall losses by not putting all your proverbial eggs into one basket!

8. Use common sense

If you know you’re trading a strong currency against a weak currency, chances are the strong currency will dominate. We are going through a period now where USD is a strong global currency. With a Fed rate hike looming, you may want to back USD against emerging-market currencies. Use your common sense when judging the effect of current and upcoming events.

9. Ensure you use risk protection strategies at all times

Risk protection varies from one trader to the next. However, you can limit your risk by managing your capital wisely, limiting the amount you trade per position, using forex trading signals, trading with greater knowledge, hedging your trades, and using specific technical strategies. Your key risk protection tool is always your stop-loss order. Remember, however, that stop-losses are not guaranteed and you can lose more than your initial deposit.

10. Be especially cautious about overextending yourself with leverage

Leverage allows you to increase the size of trade you can control with your investment capital. It magnifies your profits but it can also magnify your losses. Be sure to limit the leverage you use so you don’t get into serious financial trouble.

The bottom line

By following these 10 golden rules to forex trading, you should find yourself in a much better position over the long term. Your focus should always be on trading currency pairs that you understand, in a way that does not expose you to too much risk. Read up about market conditions likely to impact upon the currencies you’re trading, limit your leverage to an affordable amount, and use a demo trading account to understand the market dynamics.
submitted by ShelSingh to u/ShelSingh [link] [comments]

Forex Trading - Getting Started

Forex Trading: a Beginner's Guide
The forex market is the world's largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker - but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world's largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume.
However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be 'strong' against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUUSD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this - the toxic debt crisis.
Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:

From the point of view of the smaller trader there's lots of benefits too, such as:

How the forex Market Works
As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair - say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUUSD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the 'forex rate' means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUUSD = 1.4086 or EUUSD = 1.4087 but never EUUSD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a 'pip'. So, a change from EUUSD = 1.4086 to EUUSD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade.
With the forex rate at EUUSD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUUSD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn't seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend.
When you're expecting the value EUUSD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage.
Is forex Risky?
When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you're in the business of currency speculation and it is just that - speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you - and it will on occasions.
The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you're doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there's bits you don't understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don't be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned!
The forex Trading Systems
While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that's advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table.
How Much do you Need to Start off with?
This is a bit of a 'How long is a piece of string?' question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard "lot". However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There's many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading.
Where do You Start?
The single most obvious answer is of course - on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there's lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there's no reason why you shouldn't be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!
submitted by Ozone21337 to WallstreetForexRobotf [link] [comments]

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
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Global Financial Markets: Habits of Good Traders and Bad Traders [Part 1]

Global Financial Markets: Habits of Good Traders and Bad Traders [Part 1]
The Internet has created opportunity of easy access to the Global Financial Markets. Everyone who desires to learn and earn can now trade in the Global Financial Markets, irrespective of their location around the world without discrimination. What used to be the secret investment opportunity for the rich and privileged few, has now become an open marketplace through digital platforms made accessible on mobile phones, portable tablets and laptops. Therefore, as Internet connectivity and broadband access continues to penetrate into every remote corners of the globe, the awareness of Global Financial Markets commonly referred to as FOREX TRADING, will continue to soar!
According to Ian H. Giddy, Stern School of Business, New York University “The global financial markets include the market for foreign exchange, such as the Eurocurrency and related money markets, the international capital markets, notably the Eurobond and global equity markets, the commodity market and last but not least, the markets for forward contracts, options, swaps and other derivatives”. Simply put, the Global Financial Markets is a virtual platform for online trading of Currencies of countries at the International Foreign Exchange Rate, as it is done real time between Banks, Large Corporations, Investment Firms, Hedge Funds and Private Equity Portfolio managers. These are the big players, usually called the Market Makers. These Market Makers are high value and high volume traders that account for over 90% of the 5 trillion dollars worth of trading done everyday for 24 hours throughout the 5 working days of the week. The participation of Individual Traders called Retail Traders in the Global Financial Markets is only possible through a registered and verified account on the trading platform of licensed and regulated Brokers like in the Stock Exchange industry.
While the sound of participating in an open market valued at over 5 trillion dollars per day, sounds attractive and inspiring; very few Individual Traders have successfully earned profits from the Global Financial Markets consistently. In many instances, the odds are usually against the Individual Traders due to the numerous cycles of events and uncertainties that influence Global Economy and Trade relationships between countries of the world which directly or indirectly affect the sentiments of buyers and sellers of the currency of countries against others.
While many may assume that making profit in the Global Financial Markets is just as simple as clicking BUY or SELL buttons on the Broker’s trading platform, the few successful traders know that there are a lot more to learn and apply. Like everything in life, learning by doing is the best way to winning the trophy. Fairly enough, all Forex Brokers in the Global Financial Markets provide demo accounts with virtual money to help traders learn and practice before investing their real money. Unfortunately, due to the habit of indiscipline, many traders are usually impatient in learning and often allow greed to push them to rush into live trading without developing the necessary skills and habits that will guarantee consistent profit and successful trading career.

“Discipline is the ultimate secret of Distinction. What makes the difference between Good and Bad Traders is Self-Discipline!”


[Image Source: https://trading-education.com/101-inspirational-trading-quotes-and-what-they-mean]
The only Broker that I have personally observed to be committed to helping Individual Traders develop Self-Discipline and Expertise through continuous Education and Enforcement of Self-Discipline is Olymp Trade [www.olymptrade.com]. The Broker enforces self-discipline through an automated Trade Limit which is triggered when an Individual Trader begins to take reckless risks with their hard-earned money in search for dangerous profits. Many inexperienced traders hate this trade limit control, but the good, expert traders openly appreciate Olymp Trade for helping them to develop the Self-Discipline habit.
With the implementation of the Trade Limit rule, Olymp Trade has helped many of her Individual traders to learn the self-discipline habit. This has given a higher percentage of beginners or novice traders the golden opportunity to become an expert trader and earn profit consistently over time, while they avoid the common pitfalls that destroy many who trade with other brokers without the Trade Limit feature on their platform.

[Image Source: https://trading-education.com/101-inspirational-trading-quotes-and-what-they-mean]
In conclusion, while this article emphasized that Self-Discipline is the main difference between good traders and bad traders, there are other habits of good traders that will be explained in subsequent articles coming soon in this series.
Thanks for reading and adding your own comment to this article.
References
Ian H. Giddy: The Global Financial Markets.
[http://people.stern.nyu.edu/igiddy/gfm.htm#:~:text=The%20global%20financial%20markets%20include,options%2C%20swaps%20and%20other%20derivatives]
submitted by MxLawal to u/MxLawal [link] [comments]

Rules for Trading Forex

Rules for Trading Forex

Forex markets can be volatile and uncertain at the best of times, and inexperienced traders can easily end up chasing their losses. Yet it is precisely this volatility that gives you the potential for major profits. These 10 rules of forex trading may give you the best chance of landing on the winning side. Please remember, however, that trading carries a high level of risk to your capital, and profit is not guaranteed. Over 95% of all new individuals lose all their capital in the first month of trading forex
  1. Avoid forex trading software that claims to guarantee returns
While you’re on the hunt for forex trading software, be sure that you’re not taken in by promises of guaranteed returns. There is no forex trading software that can assure you of winning trades. If there was, why would anyone sell it?
  1. Always use a demo trading account
We’ve all heard that practice makes perfect, and it’s true. A demo trading account can help you improve your trading skills with virtual trades in real markets. Once you’re skilled at demo trading, you can switch over to real-money forex trading. And even once you’re using a live account, you may still want to use your demo account to try out new forex trading strategies. Of course, you should always remember that your performance on a demo account may not be replicated in a live trading account.
  1. Forex trading can be highly stressful – avoid emotional trading
Whenever real money is changing hands, the risk of loss is ever-present. Therefore you should base your trades on considered tactics and strategies. To avoid being led by your emotions stay focused on technical and fundamental factors and market news at all times.
  1. Invest in a solid forex education
Knowledge is power – we all know that. Ensure that your forex provider gives you access to tutorials, webinars, expert financial analysis and commentary, an economic calendar, graphs and charts, and even forex trading signals. All of these tools will work to improve your trading performance. The ultimate goal is to generate greater profits than losses over time, even if you have less winning trades than losing trades.
  1. You can learn to trade forex successfully
No forex trading system guarantees success (see rule 1) but some may be used as reliable guides. If you learn from the experience of successful forex strategists, your likelihood of success is far greater. But remember, when judging the results of any system or any expert, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  1. Manage your forex capital wisely
The forex markets can change on a dime, as currency markets are often characterized by high volatility. If you have generated winning trades, be sure to manage your profits. Use stop-loss and limit orders, closeout positions, and hedge your exposure to the best of your ability. Be sure that you are in control of your capital at all times.
  1. Manage your investment-per-trade wisely
This is one of the most crucial aspects of forex trading. Many traders fail to heed this important advice: Don't trade more than one currency at a time. Doing so puts you at a significant risk of loss. If you spread your investments over a wide number of trades, you limit your overall losses by not putting all your proverbial eggs into one basket!
  1. Use common sense
If you know you’re trading a strong currency against a weak currency, chances are the strong currency will dominate. We are going through a period now where USD is a strong global currency. With a Fed rate hike looming, you may want to back USD against emerging-market currencies. Use your common sense when judging the effect of current and upcoming events.
  1. Ensure you use risk protection strategies at all times
Risk protection varies from one trader to the next. However, you can limit your risk by managing your capital wisely, limiting the amount you trade per position, using forex trading signals, trading with greater knowledge, hedging your trades, and using specific technical strategies. Your key risk protection tool is always your stop-loss order. Remember, however, that stop-losses are not guaranteed and you can lose more than your initial deposit.
  1. Be especially cautious about overextending yourself with leverage
Leverage allows you to increase the size of trade you can control with your investment capital. It magnifies your profits but it can also magnify your losses. Be sure to limit the leverage you use so you don’t get into serious financial trouble.
The bottom line
By following these 10 golden rules to forex trading, you should find yourself in a much better position over the long term. Your focus should always be on trading currency pairs that you understand, in a way that does not expose you to too much risk. Read up about market conditions likely to impact upon the currencies you’re trading, limit your leverage to an affordable amount, and use a demo trading account to understand the market dynamics.
submitted by ShelSingh to FxKings [link] [comments]

Inflation for US vs Inflation for Zimbabwe

"Too much money chasing too few goods = inflation" - I get that.

Thought experiment:
I say there were 100 apples, and everyone needed 1 to survive, and there are 100 people with $1 per person, then everyone could survive. But what if the money supply increased to $200 ($2 per person)... Well then I suppose Apple sellers would raise their prices to match... But it does seem awfully odd that Apple suppliers are able to figure how much money people have in their pockets and are quick enough to adjust prices accordingly. But let's just say they can and do - and the government doesn't try to stop them like Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Then yea, I suppose we would be balanced by the actual supply.
On the other end, if everyone was given $100 million, then yea, that would seem kind of absurd because essentially American's would now be the wealthiest nation on earth and able to buy anything from anyone... At-least until those goods, like the Apple suppliers, adjusted for the value of our dollar?

What I don't understand is say, if economic wealth is tied to supply, productivity etc, why then doesn't a government just print money to build and invest in the country's infrastructure to increase that supply and productivity?
"You don't have a place to live?!" - boom we print money to pay developers to build a house
"You want to create jobs?", - boom we print more money to create jobs to build a factory
"You can't afford medication?" - boom here's money for you
- This is some AOC progressive rhetoric that is being thrown around all over politics and seems absurd but is it?
If the United States is the worlds reserve currency...
So we try to tether ourselves to reality (of supply) and reasonableness (printing $100 million per person is not reasonable) by backing our currencies to several across the world. Though wouldn't this give those who hold reserve currency status (like the United States) tremendous power to just print their money? In other words, if a country has its debt denominated in its own currency and holds a reserve currency status, what's to stop them from just doing whatever they want? Put another way, why hasn't everyone been given $100 million to tell our problems "bye-bye America #1".



EDIT: Just to clarify for the Austrian Economic elitist that might come on here and take out of context what I am talking about:

CONTEXT:
Giving everyone $1 million dollars wouldn't change anything. If everyone says needs a house, a car and a phone, basic necessities, for the most part, it wouldn't matter if you gave everyone the ability to buy all those because we have a finite supply of them. there just isn't enough resources available. So prices have to go up to account for the limited supply OR we can just go straight commie and say everyone gets half a house.
Though on the other end, you can't deny that not giving people or stimulating the economy when faced with massive deflation due to a collapse in demand. Maybe not $1 million but say $1000 to be able to afford the prescription they need. The supply of drugs isn't disappearing here before people losing their jobs and thus having a lower income and ability to afford what they need.

QUESTION
We can talk about the balance ALL day, should we give $1000, $1,000,000 $0??? - But that's not what I'm asking. I am talking about how does our reserve status comes into play? If other forex currencies are pegged against us, what's to stop us from printing more? If all oil is transacted (barring a war) in USD, then what stops us from abusing and devaluing our currency on our own terms. What I suspect, and someone smarter than me may be able to attest to this, is that we can print money to a certain extent due to our status and position in the forex markets, but I;m curious how one would even begin to measure this.

Maybe we don't know this and that's why we experiment with raising rates, OMO, and monetary policy. We test things and see where they get with the objective of balancing inflation and deflation - and that's all there is to it. I hope there's more...
submitted by Potstick3rs to investing [link] [comments]

Top 16 Forex Trading Tips You Should Know

Top 16 Forex Trading Tips You Should Know
This article will breakdown the top 16 trading tips you should consider , ranging from how you should trade, the risks you need to be aware of, how learning about trading can improve your trading performance, and much more!

https://preview.redd.it/5mtfgzf58u951.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d03de717ed7528061472e763cfcb4cf34771fbef
1. Create Your Own Strategy
No list of currency trading tips is complete if it doesn't mention strategies. One of the most common mistakes beginner traders make is not creating an action plan. Figure out what you want to get out of trading. Having a clear end goal in mind will help with your trading discipline.
2. Learn Step-by-Step
As with every new practical learning activity, trading requires you to start with the basics, and move slowly until you understand the playing field. Start by investing small sums of money, and keep in mind the old adage 'slow but steady wins the race'.
3. Take Control of Your Emotions
Don't let your emotions carry you away. It can be very difficult at times, especially after you've experienced a losing streak. But keeping a level head will help you stay rational, so you can make competent choices. Whenever you let your emotions get the better of you, you expose yourself to unnecessary risks. Exercising risk management within your trading will help you to minimise the risks.
4. Stress Less
This is one Forex tip that sounds really obvious – because it really is. But guess what? Trading under stress generally leads to irrational decisions, and in live trading, that will cost you money. Therefore, identify the source of your stress and try to eliminate it, or at least limit its influence on you. Take a deep breath and focus on something else. Every person has their own way of overcoming stress – some listen to classical music, while others exercise. Listen to your mental health and learn what works best for you.
5. Practice Makes Perfect
Of all the Forex tricks and tips for beginners, this is the most important. You are unlikely to succeed at anything on your first try. Only constant trading practice can yield consistently top results. But you probably don't want to lose money while learning the basics, right?
6. Psychology is Key
Every trader is a psychologist at heart. When you're planning your next move, you have to analyse market movements and review your own psychology. You need to ask yourself questions such as:
  • Did I show signs of confirmation bias?
  • Did I make a trade out of frustration?
  • What made me choose that particular currency pair?
Mastering your psychology will protect you from many losses along the trading development path.
7. No Risk, No Success
Not even Forex trading tips and tricks can guarantee you success. When you decide to become a trader, you should have already accepted the possibility of failure. In case you didn't – here's a reality check. You won't make profitable trades 100% of the time. Don't let false advertisements get in your head, either. Instead, be realistic about your Forex trading methods and goals.
8. Patience is a Virtue
When it comes to trading, this old saying is not just a cliché. True success is never instantaneous. It's the result of consistent work and planning. Many beginner traders look for an easy, fast path to profit. Don't bother – it doesn't exist!
9. Continuous Education
Each day you trade, there's a new lesson to be learned. Look closely at the Forex market and keep all the tips you have learnt in mind. Start analysing news, trends, and financial processes, and don't neglect the Forex basics. Most importantly, study, then practise and then study some more. Repeat this process often, and you will be well on your way to fully understanding the markets.
Studying will require a lot of time and effort, but it will pay off in the long run. For starters, Admiral Markets offers the opportunity for traders to benefit from a free education centre that offers Forex tips, as well as, a range of articles and tutorials offering tips, tricks, strategies, and more, for all kinds of trading.
10. Trends are Good for You
One particularly important Forex market tip to follow is to learn about trends. The ability to spot trends is a valuable one. While we don't recommend jumping on the trend bandwagon every time, but outright ignoring the trend is a recipe for disaster. Trends can show you what is coming, so you can pro-actively adjust your trading, rather than reacting when it's too late.
11. Seek Competitive Conditions
It's important to choose top-notch service conditions and get favourable spreads. If you're considering trading with Admiral Markets, there are a range of different options available. Why not read more about them in our account types section?
12. Plan in Advance
Forex trading is not a gamble – it's a strategic game. Carefully calculate your next move before you act. You can begin formulating a plan by asking yourself some challenging questions such as:
  • Have I accounted for the possibility that I may lose?
  • What's my plan B for the different types of scenarios that may arise?
To be successful at Forex trading, you have to expect the unexpected.
13. Know the Charts
You will be trading on many different markets and will need to quickly understand the information you analyse for each trade. There are numerous tools available to traders that make trading easier, but nothing is more time-efficient than charts. Charts provide you with fast access to numerically-heavy data in the form of a simple visual, so you don't have to scroll through it.
14. Don't Run out of Chances
Eagerness is good, but there is a limit to everything. If you trade too much, you are probably harming your chances of achieving success. Why? Because overtrading usually leads to weakened focus and careless trades. As you develop your trading plan, indicate the maximum amount of trades you will make per day or week.
15. Greediness Leads to Risks
Greediness can make you take unnecessary risks as well. Set the maximum loss and desired profit within your trading plan. When you hit this level, stop and don't go for another trade. When it comes to fund management, this is one of the most important Forex tips and tricks to follow.
16. Use Stop-Losses
Our Forex daily tips don't just focus on general recommendations. We also want to mention valuable tools, such as the highly rated stop-loss. Not setting a stop-loss is basically giving you an excuse to keep a bad position open (because you're hoping that the situation improves). But bad situations rarely improve, and neither will your capital if you don't wise up fast.
A correctly placed stop-loss eliminates the risk of losing all of your money on a single bad trade. The stop-loss is especially beneficial when you don't have the ability to close positions manually.

6 Reasons To Open An Account

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Forex Overview

Each day, millions of trades are made in a currency exchange market called Forex. The word "Forex" directly stems off of the beginning of two words - "foreign" and "exchange". Unlike other trading systems such as the stock market, Forex does not involve the trading of any goods, physical or representative. Instead, Forex operates through buying, selling, and trading between the currencies of various economies from around the world. Because the Forex market is truly a global trading system, trades are made 24 hours a day, five days a week. In addition, Forex is not bound by any one control agency, which means that Forex is the only true free market economic trading system available today. By leaving the exchange rates out of any one group's hands, it is much more difficult to even attempt to manipulate or corner the currency market. With all of the advantages associated with the Forex system, and the global range of participation, the Forex market is the largest market in the entire world. Anywhere between 1 trillion and 1.5 trillion equivalent United States dollars are traded on the Forex market each and every day.
Forex operates mainly on the concept of "free-floating" currencies; this can be explained best as currencies that are not backed by specific materials such as gold or silver. Prior to 1971, a market such as Forex would not work because of the international "Bretton Woods" agreement. This agreement stipulated that all involved economies would strive to hold the value of their currencies close to the value of the US dollar, which in turn was held to the value of gold. In 1971, the Bretton Woods agreement was abandoned. The United States had run a huge deficit during the Vietnam Conflict, and began printing out more paper currency than they could back with gold, resulting in a relatively high level of inflation. By 1976, every major currency worldwide had left the system established under the Bretton Woods agreement, and had changed into a free-floating system of currency. This free-floating system meant that each country's currency could have vastly different values that fluctuated based on how the country's economy was faring at that time.
Because each currency fluctuates independently, it is possible to make a profit from the changes in currency value. For example, 1 Euro used to be worth about 0.86 US dollars. Shortly thereafter, 1 Euro was worth about 1.08 US dollars. Those who bought Euros at 86 cents and sold them at 1.08 US dollars were able to make 22 cents profit off of each Euro - this could equate to hundreds of millions in profits for those who were deeply rooted in the Euro. Everything in the Forex market is hanging on the exchange rate of various currencies. Sadly, very few people realize that the exchange rates they see on the news and read about in the newspapers each day could possibly be able to work towards profits on their behalf, even if they were just to make a small investment. The Euro and the US dollar are probably the two most well-known currencies that are used in the Forex market, and therefore they are two of the most widely traded in the Forex market. In addition to the two "kings of currency", there are a few other currencies that have fairly strong reputation for Forex trading. The Australian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar are all staple currencies used by established Forex traders. However, it is important to note that on most Forex services, you won't see the full name of a currency written out. Each currency has it's own symbol, just as companies involved in the stock market have their own symbol based off of the name of their company. Some of the important currency symbols to know are:
USD - United States Dollar
EUR - The Euro
CAD - The Canadian Dollar
AUD - The Australian Dollar
JPY - The Japanese Yen
NZD - The New Zealand Dollar
Although the symbols may be confusing at first, you'll get used to them after a while. Remember that each currency's symbol is logically formed from the name of the currency, usually in some form of acronym. With a little practice, you'll be able to determine most currency codes without even having to look them up.
Some of the richest people in the world have Forex as a large part of their investment portfolio. Warren Buffet, the world's richest man, has over $20 Billion invested in various currencies on the Forex market. His revenue portfolio usually includes well over one-hundred million dollars in profit from Forex trades each quartile. George Soros is another big name in the field of currency trading - it is believed that he made over $1 billion in profit from a single day of trading in 1992! Although those types of trades are very rare, he was still able to amass over $7 Billion from three decades of trading on the Forex market. The strategy of George Soros also goes to show that you don't have to be too risky to make profits on Forex - his conservative strategy involves withdrawing large portions of his profits from the market, even when the trend of his various investments seems to still be correlating upward.
Thankfully, you don't have to invest millions of dollars to make a profit on Forex. Many people have recorded their success with initial investments of anywhere from $10,000 to as little as $100 for an initial investment. This wide range of economic requirements makes Forex an attractive venue for trading among all classes, from those well entrenched in the lower rungs of the middle class, all the way up to the richest people alive on the planet. For those on the lower end of the spectrum, access to the Forex market is a fairly recent innovation. Within the past decades, various companies began offering a system that is friendlier to the average person, allowing the smaller initial investments and greater flexibility that is seen in the market today. Now, no matter what economic position you are in, you can get started. Although it's possible to jump right in and start investing, it's best that you make sure you have a better understanding of the ins and outs of Forex trading before you get started.
The world of Forex is one that can be both profitable and exciting, but in order to make Forex work for you it is important that you know how the system works. Like most lucrative activities, to become a Forex pro you need a lot of practice. There are many websites that offer exactly this, the simulated practice of Foreign Exchange.
The services provided by online practice sites differ from site to site, so it is always a good idea to make sure you know all of the details of the site you are about to use. For example, there are several online brokers who will offer a practice account for a period of several weeks, then terminate it and start you on a live account, which means you may end up using your own money before you are ready to. It's always a good idea to find a site that offers an unlimited practice account. Having a practice account allows you to learn the ways of the trade with no risk at all. Continuing to use the practice account while you use a live account is also a beneficial tool for even the most seasoned Forex traders. The use of a no risk practice account enables you to try out new trading strategies and tread into unknown waters. If the strategy works, you know that you can now implement that strategy into your real account. If the strategy fails, you know to refrain from the use of that strategy without the loss of any actual money.
Of course, simply using a no risk account won't get you anywhere. In order to make money with Forex, you need to put your own money in. Obviously, it would be ridiculous to travel to other countries to purchase and sell different currencies, so there are many websites that you can use to digitally trade your money. Almost all online brokerage systems have different features to offer you so you have to do the research to find out which site you wish to create an account with. All brokers will require specific information of you to create your account. The information they will need from you includes information required to communicate with you, including your name, mailing address, telephone number, e-mail address. They also require information needed to identify who you are, including your Social Security number, Passport number or Tax Identification number. It is required by law that they have this information, so they can prevent fraudulent trading. They may also collect various personal information when you open an account, including gender, birth date, occupation, and employment status.
Now that you have practiced trading currency and set up your live account, it is time to truly enter this profitable yet risky world. To make money with Forex, you do need to have money to begin with. It is possible to trade with very small amounts of money, but this will also lead to very small profits. As is with many other exchange systems, high payouts will only come with high risks. You can't expect to start getting millions as soon as you put money in to the market, but you can't expect to make any money at all if you don't put in at least a 3-digit value.
As most Forex brokers will warn you, you can loose money in the foreign exchange market, so don't put your life savings into any one trade. Always trade with money that you'd be able to survive without. This will ensure that if you get a bad trade and loose a lot of money, you wont end up on the streets, and you'll be able to make a comeback in the future.
So how does trading currency work? Logically, trades always come in pairs. For example, a common trade would be the United States Dollar to the Japanese Yen. This is expressed as USD/JPY. The way to quote a trade is kind of tricky, but with practice it becomes as natural as reading your native language. In a Forex quote, the first currency in the list (IE: USD in USD/JPY) is the base currency, and in the quote the base is always one. This means if (hypothetically of course) One USD was worth Two JPY, that the quote would be expressed as 1/2.
When trading in Forex, we use pips. Pip is an acronym for "percentage in point". A pip a certain decimal place in a number compared to the same decimal place in another number. Using pips, we track the gains and losses of a currencies value compared to another's. Let's take a look at an example. Say a value is written as 1.0001/1.0004. This would indicate a 3-pip spread, because of the 3 number difference in the fourth decimal place. Almost all currency pairs go to the fourth decimal place. The only currency pair that doesn't is that of the USD/JPY, and it goes to the second decimal place. For example, a USD/JPY quote with a 3-point spread would look like this: 1.01/1.04.
A very common aspect to the foreign exchange is leverage. Leverage trading, also known as trading on margin, is a way to amplify the amount of money you are making. When you use leverage trading, you borrow a certain amount of money from your broker and use that to make your transaction. This allows you to trade with more money then you are actually spending, meaning you can make higher profits than you would normally be able to make.
There are risks associated with leverage trading. If you increase the amount of money you are using, if a trade goes bad, then you'll loose more money than you'd usually loose. The risks are worth it though, because a big win on margin means a huge payout. As mentioned before, it is definitely a wise idea to try out leverage trading on your practice account before you use it excessively on your live account, so you can get a feel for the way it works.
Now that you're an expert on the way Forex trading works there are some things about foreign exchange that you should know. Forex is just like the stock market in that there are many benefits and risks, but if you are going to invest your time and personal money into this system, you should be fully aware of all of the factors that may change your decision to invest in the currency market.
Generally speaking, Forex is a difficult subject to opinionate on, because of the different factors that may alter the currency over the years. "Supply and demand" is a major issue affecting the Forex organization, because the world is in constant variable to change, one significant product being oil. Usually the currency of all the nations around the globe is described as a huge "melting pot", because of the fact that all of the interchanging controversy, political affairs, national disputes, and possibly war conflicts, all mixed together as a whole, altering the nature of Forex every second! Although problems such as supply and demand, and the whole "melting pot" issue, there are a numerous amount of pros to Forex; one being benefited profit from long term stock. Because of the positive aspects of Forex, the percentage of the use of electronic trading in the FX market (shortened from Foreign Exchange) increased by 7% from 2005 to 2008. Despite the controversial realm of Forex, it is still recognized today by many, and is still popular amongst many of the nations in the world.
Of all the organizations that recognize Forex, most of them practice fiscal policy, and monetary policy. Both policies are dependent on the nation's outlook on economics, and their standards set. The government's budget deficits, or surpluses against the country, is widely affected by the country's economic status of trade, and may critically inflict the nation's currency. Another factor for the nation's deficit spending is what the nation already has, in terms of necessities for the citizens, and the society. The more the country already has, prior to trade, the greater the budget for other demands from the people, such as technology, innovations in existing products, etc. Although a country may have an abundance in necessities, greed may hinder the nation's economic status, by changing government official's wants, to want "unnecessary" products, therefore ruining or "wasting" the country's money. This negative trend may lead to the country's doom, and hurt the Forex's reputation for positive change. There are some countries which hold more of a product (such as oil stated above), the Middle East dominating that sector in the circle of trade; Since the Middle East suffers much poverty, as a result of deficit spending, and lack of other resources, they demand for a higher price in oil, to maintain their economic status. This process is known as the "flights to quality", and is practiced by many countries, wanting to survive in the trading network that exists today. Interest rate, and leveraged financing, is due to the inflations that occur in many parts of the world from one point to another. Inflations wear down purchasing abilities, causing the currency to fall with it. In some cases, a country may observe the trends that it takes, and beforehand, take action to avoid any mishaps that had been experienced before. Sometimes, the country will buy more of a product, or sell more of a product, otherwise known as "overbought" or "oversold". This may aid in the country's future, or devastatingly hurt the country, because of lack of thought, as a result of fraud logic. "What started out as a market for professionals is now attracting traders from all over the world and of all experience levels" is part of a letter of the chairman of Forex, and it is completely true. There is even a 30-day trial for Forex online if anyone interested in Forex wants to learn more about the company. Although affected by leveraged financing, interest rate, and causing an increase or decrease in exchange rate risks, Forex can be a great way for quick profits and integrated economy for the country. In investing in stocks that are most likely to be successful for a long period of time, and researching these companies for more reference and background that you need to know, Forex can aid in these fields. In the Forex market of different levels of access, the inter-bank market composed of the largest investment bank firm, which contains "spreads", which are divided into bid, and ask prices. Large amounts of transactions, with large amounts traded, and requesting a small amount of difference is known as a better spread, which is preferred by many investors.
In comparison to the Stock Market, the Forex organization is just as stable, and safe, if the users on it are aware, and decently knowledgeable about the topic. The Stock Market Crash in 1929 was a result of lack of thinking, because of the extremely cheap shares, replacing the shares originally costing thousands of dollars. When the Stock Market crashed, and the New Deal was proposed by Franklin D. Roosevelt, leveraged finance was present, and utilized to stabilize the economy at the time. The United States was extremely wealthy and prosperous in the 20s (prior to the depression), and had not realized what could happen as a result of carelessness in spending. This is a result of deficit spending, and how it could damage a society, in less than a decade! When joining Forex, keep in mind that with the possible positive outcomes, and negative ones, there are obstacles that must be faced to become successful.
As a result of many catastrophic events, such as the Great Depression that occurred in the United States, people investing in the Forex organization keep in mind of the dangers, and rewards that may come upon them in a certain point in time. With more work and consideration outputted by a person, or organization in the Forex program will there be more signs of prosperity as a result. In relation to individuals such as Warren Buffet and George Soros, they have become successful through experience, and determination through many programs, and research, for security purposes. Reserving some of the most riches people in the world, to others that are just test driving it to discover its potential for them, Forex is a broad topic that experiences different people everyday. Forex may not help everyone that invests in it, but if enough outputted effort is amplified in attempts to better the economy, it is most definitely something that any person should experience first-hand.
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Forex Trading Systems - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Why you need Forex trading systems and strategies. Learning how to trade profitably requires you to learn and master a few Forex trading systems. The key to trading is becoming a master of a few trading strategies not the jack of all. Forex trading systems are important as they will provide you with structure, a set of rules and a plan to follow. This article will discuss some of the different types of Forex trading strategies that are currently in the Forex market and teach you how to identify what makes the best FX trading system.
Indicator Driven Trading Systems. Approach with extreme caution, indicator driven strategies are often designed by someone who notices that this set up is currently working right now. The problem is just that, it's working for that present moment and often very little analysis has been done to understand the longevity of this Forex trading system.
The biggest issue with Indicator based Forex trading systems is that it uses indicators to generate a trading signal as opposed to pure price action. Indicators are lagging and therefore tend to give poorer and late signals than pure price action which is most up to date information on the chart.
However, as this trading system often looks exciting and 'sexy' on the charts many amateur traders find this trading strategy far too tempting.
Some guru's latest flash in the pan trading strategy. A trading system which comes with the guaranteed promise that you will 'never lose again and will turn your computer into an automated cash machine'; unfortunately the world is filled with these so called 'guru's' and their millionaire making Forex trading systems. Experienced traders know that losing trades is part of the game, you will always have losers and winner's you must be prepared to take loses. Professional traders understand no Forex trading strategy is ever guaranteed, however with trading results and back tested performance figures they focus on the overall picture of success. The best way to avoid falling victim to these scams when finding a Forex training company is to have proof of their strategies live trading results. This way you will understand the realistic and honest performance of their strategies.
Trading systems that actually work...
Harmonic trading patterns. Harmonic trading is the art of recognizing particular price patterns in line with Fibonacci extensions and retracements to calculate turning points in the financial markets. Confused yet? Harmonic trading is complex and requires a lot of time and practice to master, yet it could be one of the best trading systems because it offers high reward vs risk ratios and it is very versatile. It can be traded on any market on any timeframe.
If you are just starting off learning how to trade the market your initial focus should not be on harmonic trading patterns as they will take a lot of time and focus to understand. However for more experienced traders looking for a new trading system to add under their belt, harmonic trading is worth a look.
Old school technical analysis trading strategies. This particular trading system is well known and well traded throughout the Forex community for many years. Technical analysis includes; ascending triangles, consolidation breakouts plus head & shoulders patterns, flag patterns to name a few. The benefit in learning these trading systems is that they do work and they have decades of data to prove it.
The downside to these systems is many newer traders find this approach to trading dull and perceive it as old fashioned. It lacks the glamor and excitement of indicator driven system. It's not busy and flashy and unfortunately, newbie traders often mistake complexity as a sign of better performance and higher probability. However the reason old school technical analysis is still around is because it works, and plenty of experienced profitable traders use it in their own trading style. Other than lacking the excitement, old school technical analysis trading systems tends to have a lower success rate, which a lot of people are unwilling or unable to deal with. A lower success rate does mean the winning trades are typically very large, which makes the system profitable and worth learning as it gives you a solid foundation in learning the Forex markets.
Price action trading strategies. Now what you have been waiting for, I reveal the best Forex trading system you can learn is price action. Price action trading is the reading of the raw price action on a chart. The price is the most up to date information on the chart, so it will give you the most current situation when reading the chart. Price action as a Forex trading system is an incredibly simple method that is effective and functional as it works in both trending and ranging markets, with and against the trend. Learning price action can simplify your Forex trading and dramatically improve your results. With price action a trader has the advantage to trade any market on any timeframe, as price action setups are effective in all market conditions.
Price action trading systems to learn:
1. Pin Bar Setup.
The pin bar price action Forex trading strategy is a reversal system. It is designed to trade tops and bottoms of markets and can also be used in trend continuation by buying dips in upward trends, and selling peaks in downtrends.
2. Inside Bar Setup
Inside bars can be used very effectively when trading Forex. They are primarily used when trading strong trending markets as a trend continuation strategy.
3. Engulfing Bar Setup
Engulfing bars are great for trend reversals. They are rare, but a very strong price action reversal signal. Can be used when trading trends, but typically found at end of trend reversals.
4. Fakey Setup
The fakey setup is a trend based trading approach that watches for a false breakout of an inside bar formation. This setup can usually be found at levels of support and resistance, very similar to the pin bar setup. Fakey's are used to buy dips in upward trend, and sell peaks in downtrend.
Price Action Trading Systems... Your First Step. Do not get overwhelmed focus on a few price action trading strategies only. Trade these setups on a few different currency pairs. Grow your confidence. Become comfortable with identifying setups and really understand how to enter the trade step by step. Start with one price action Forex trading system and only when you are completely comfortable add another trading system.
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Forex Profit Signals

What is Forex Trading:
Forex Trading is trading currencies from different countries against each other. Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among Forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. During exchange, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is determined simply: by supply and demand - exchange to which both parties agree.
Actually Forex is the financial game between BULLS and BEARS.
The Major currencies pairs are:
EUUSD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD
And these are the 6 best Forex Markets.
What are Forex Signals?
Forex signals are indicators that let you know when it's a good time to buy or sell a currency pair. They provide you with insight as to what's going on in the Forex market without the necessity to monitor Forex trends throughout the day. If you are self-employed or employed by another company, Forex trading is likely a part-time endeavor for you. You won't have time to sit at the computer and monitor the Forex market all day. Forex signals can be delivered to you throughout the day by professional Forex traders to give you a heads-up on what's going on in the market. You can receive the signals, and then place the signals for buy or sell.
Forex signals are basically "suggested" buy and sell points with price targets and stop-loss levels delivered by fx signal providers to traders. They may be delivered by email, instant messenger, cellphone, live currency trading systems or direct to your Forex signal metatrader on your desktop.
Forex trading is a risky business and it takes some time to master the art of Forex trading signals. There are a number of fx signal providers but before you choose, you need to make sure you have done your homework. Always ask for the Free signals to deliver for 3 to 5 days and test those signals in your Demo Account.
The main characteristics of Forex trading signals to be aware of are as follows;
Cost: monthly subscription Complexity: Simple "one email a day" OR Full-Service Control: You keep full control OR the signal provider trades your a/c for you
Most Forex trade signals charge a very modest subscription fee, usually in the region of USD $80 - $400 per month.
If you're new to Forex trading, you probably realize how important it is to make the right trading decisions. One wrong trading move can drastically harm your portfolio while a good move can bring tremendous profits. That's why trading signals are so important. Once you've tried a Forex demo account for practice and created a strategy that works for you, you can add trading signal services as a useful tool in your Forex trading.
With online Forex, finding a trading signal service is easier than ever.
In their simplest form a Forex trading signal will send you a Forex alert email once a day listing trade set ups for the next 24 hours.
Some Forex signal providers offer a free trial service, thus allowing currency traders to sample the signals to assess their worth. This is a helpful step, as it allows the trader to consider the quality and reliability of the signals before paying money. This is a crucial element in the research process, and weeds out the providers who want money upfront as they are not confident in their ability to call profitable trades. This is a good service that you can try for free for 3 to 5 days.
Various fx signal providers offer a few complimentary services along with the featured ones. Look for a fx signal company that provides email support, phone assistance and even mentoring to their clients. This is of great value, especially to new traders.
They assign their time assisting traders in taking buy/sell decisions. Forex traders depend upon and trust the recommendations of these professional signal providers, while making investing decision in the Forex market
Forex signals are not meant to be a magic solution to all your Forex problems. They are designed to inform you about the market.
Forex business timing is extremely crucial; a trader can earn millions or lose even more depending upon the his timely or untimely actions. Besides, being the biggest market on the face of earth - it generates business activity of almost 3 trillion USD, it operates around the clock, all over the globe, making it thus impossible for a trader to stay vigilant all the time about market fluctuation and probable changes therein. Therefore a trader needs alarms and indicators to get knowledge about the possible opportunities and probable pitch points. Hence the need for Forex signal or alerts. Basically Forex alert or signal is a communication or intimation to the trader indicating the ripe time to buy/sell and the suitable price to pay/ask. Most of the time, such signals and alerts are provided by trained professionals, either individual or companies.
When choosing a Forex signal service, be sure the company offers the type of signal alerts you need. Every person is different. Some require computer or email alerts, while others are not accurate Forex signals are made for both professional traders and although new traders. The best Forex signals trading system is going to cover multiple situations on the Forex market. For instance the best Forex trade signals is going to cover all major currencies like GBP, USD, and EUR at all times the market is open, not only for specific situation. Simply to get the full value of your Forex trade you must know what is happening in regards to all the major currencies. The Forex system should also be able to give you at least 1-3 Forex trading signal alerts a day.
Some Forex trading signals are high volume scalpers, calling many trades in a day aiming to profit a handful of pips on each. Others only call a few trades a day, aiming to profit 20 - 80 pips on each single trade. Forex trading signal providers help you in minimizing risks or losses in trading.
Forex signals are generally given on a daily updated basis and all are contingent on factual market analysis and behavioral flow and not on mere hearsay and other speculations.
The signals are calculated and generated by using different indicators such as trends, moving average, Elliott waves, Bollinger bands, Fibonacci series, etc. In spite of that, some uses strategies like:
Pip Maximizer Method 1 Pip Maximizer Method 2 Pip Reversal Method Pip Divergence Method Instant Pip Method Pip Retracement Method Quantum Pip Strategy
... to give profitable and accurate signals.
The following question I wish to raise, is the abundant selection of Forex signals from which we can choose. Because of the variety of service providers, they offer different services, of which we must be aware. The first type of Forex signal provider will just send out trade alerts by email, often daily, sometimes at several intervals throughout the day. Thus you need to have a laptop of email receiving device ready at all times, to gain the most from trading Forex signals.
The next type to consider are through EA/Expert Advisors. These types of signals are not good at all because those are the computer oriented programs which can ruin your money within a few trades. But fortunately this is not such a big problem today, as more traders have email reading devices. The most crucial aspect concerning the format you receive the signals, is to ensure that you receive them immediately, and have the capability to act on them straight away - so you have to have immediate access to your Forex brokerage account, and place the trade as soon as you humanly can.
A unique benefit of trading Forex signals is that it gives guidance and discipline in a Forex currency trader. Forex profit signals service providers send you alerts when the conditions are right for the trade. They use cutting-edge technology which constantly monitor all major currency pairs for generating technical indicators.
Forex signal generators produce Forex signals which are indicators of ideal trading opportunities. These are certain algorithmic patterns which have been evident in successful Forex trades throughout the years. These Forex signals are then fed onto the program of Forex automated EA or Expert Advisors. This program will then either make Forex trading decisions for the individual while s/he is away from the computer or advice the individual about what to do. Forex EAs act like wizards which monitor currency ratings through online Forex Trading Platforms. One can look at Forex signals as triggers of commands which allow the automated system to function.
Forex signals can immeasurably add to the profits of a Forex trader.
How to Receive Forex Signals: Forex signal services are available to provide signals to you around the clock. These services usually have professional Forex traders who monitor the market 24/7 and provide you with up-to-date information. These services often charge a monthly or yearly subscription fee for their services. The methods used to deliver the Forex signals to you can vary from one service to the next. Signals can be sent through email alerts, to your phone or cell phone, through your pager, or even through a pop-up software system that will show a screen on your computer each time a signal is sent. The services also vary in how they present information to you. Some will provide live charts to give you more insight as to what as happening in the market.
Time frame for which the Forex trading signals are generated is equally important. Few trading signals can be valid only for a few minutes or an hour; others may have recommendations that are valid for a day or more. If the Forex trading signal providers generate signals for shorter time frame, you need to monitor the market frequently.
Some Forex signal service providers offer add-on services like email or mobile alerts. The service provider should have end-to-end technical support for the customers.
Even with experienced traders calling your trades, it's prudent risk management to never ever risk more than 3% of your initial capital on any one trade, preferably only 1%. So, if for example your initial capital, (or to put it another way, the maximum you can afford to lose) is let's say 5,000, the position size you take on each trade should be such that if the trade hit your stop loss, your maximum loss would be no more than 1% x 5,000 = 50.
Forex signal providers render Forex business quite a bit easy for traders, especially those who are relatively new in the business. Forex signal generation and provision can be either manual or automated and it provides entry/exit points of the trade streak for major or already chosen currency pairs. In manual signal generation system a simple trade signal is provided by the single provider. In automated signal generation system, the Forex system not only intimates and alerts the trade to either enter or exit the trade, but some times makes the deal by operating in synchronization with the trader's bank or broker.
Initially Forex signals and alerts used to come in the form of telephone calls and facsimiles. Now as we have stepped into the era of information revolution which has brought forth amazingly advanced digital technology, Forex signals and alerts generation and provision system has also advanced and become much more sophisticated and quick. Now these alerts come in the form of e-mails, SMS (Short Message Service, a way of sending text messages to mobile devices), or desktop software. However with trading Forex signals, there is no such chance to over trade your account. It is absolutely possible to learn the mental aspects of trading, by following a set of rules, and not to deviate from those rules.
Many trading Forex signals provide you with a complete set of instructions in order to take the trade. Frequently the signal will have multiple exits, which enable a trader to take money off the table in small steps. So this enables the currency trader to input all of these prices into his trading platform when he gets the signals, and then to switch off the computer.
As for any purchase, it is essential that the Forex trader first does his research into the more effective trading Forex signal service for him or her. This involves a lot of careful research, and reading various reviews and testimonials of the service in question. Before I go, in conclusion, the trader is strongly advised to practice using the trading Forex signals on a demo account first, so that the Forex trader can totally test out the profitability of the signals. This has an supplementary benefit for a complete new, as it will enable the currency trader to become familiar with the trading platform, and reduce the possibility of making any mistakes.
Whenever possible, go for a free demo account and then try your forex signals for a few days before becoming a paid member. Forex trading does involve some planning and strategy building so be prepared for a steep learning curve before trading with real money! I'm going to start by telling you some cool facts about the FOREX market.
As you may already know, FOREX is the acronym for "The Foreign Exchange Market." This market concerns itself with the buying and selling of the currencies of just about every country on earth. This market is BIG! So big, in fact, it's hard to wrap your mind around the size of it.
Listen. The daily average volume of FOREX is:
Almost 5 TRILLION Dollars Per Day!
I'm going to try to bring that fact home for you: The New York Stock Exchange has a daily volume of approximately 50 billion dollars. That means the FOREX is 100 times larger than the NYSE
Actually, the daily volume of the FOREX is triple the size of all other investment markets combined!
In spite of its size, the FOREX does not have a physical location or a central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of people, banks and companies that specialize in trading one currency for another.
Almost all FOREX trades are executed on the internet by someone sitting at a computer with a high-speed connection. So, if you don't like working with a computer you may as well stop reading... because... you will be left out.
Still with me? Good.
The Only 24 Hour Financial Market In The Whole World Because the FOREX does not have a physical location or a central exchange, it is able to operate on a 24 hour basis leapfrogging from one time zone to another across the major financial centers of the world.
The FOREX market actually follows the sun around the globe... because... as one country is closing for the day, another is just opening up. This market is open 24 hours a day, six days a week from 5:00 PM Sunday (East Coast Time) to 4:00 PM Friday (East Coast Time). This 24 hour access combined with its huge trading volume makes this...
The Most Liquid Market On Earth! Except for Saturdays, you can enter or exit the FOREX market anytime night or day. This market has virtually no gaps whatsoever and your stop-loss orders are almost guaranteed.
Can you imagine that? The multi-trillion dollar liquidity, combined with 24-hour trading access virtually guarantees your stop-loss orders will be executed without slippage.
Just try to get that kind of guarantee from your stockbroker!
The stock, futures and options markets cannot offer you this guarantee because the limited trading hours create frequent gap opens. Nearly all Forex brokers make sure their hours of operation coincide with the hours of operation of the global FOREX market.
Let's see, what else? Oh, yeah, no one can corner the market. The FOREX market is so huge and has so many global participants that no single individual nor entity... not even a central bank... can control the market for any significant period of time.
Plus, There Is No Insider Trading! Because of the vast size of the global FOREX market and its non-centralized nature, there is no chance whatsoever for disruptions caused by insider trading. There is less chance for fraud in the FOREX than in any other investment market. Best of all forex can never become zero but stocks can become zero and majority of the options expire worthless.
There are no commissions. Yep, you read it right. No exchange fees, no closing fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. This all adds up to a very low retail transaction cost. If you select your broker properly, your round-trip transaction cost could be as low as .07 percent.
And know this, a very desirable by-product of extremely high liquidity is almost instantaneous transactions executed with blinding speed. You can leverage your trades by a factor of 50 to 1, 100 to 1 and even 400 to 1.
Not only that, you can trade with a very low margin with relative safety compared to the disastrous potential of margin trading found in other financial markets. Also it is tax free income if the country you reside has no capital gain tax.
And finally, if you get really great at currency trading, your potential financial reward is so big it can make your head swim!
submitted by PresentType to ForexCyborginfo [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

[Spain] Freaking out about my plan to FIRE

I'm a Canadian getting married to a Spaniard and we're planning to live in Spain to be close to her family.
Most of my savings are in CAD and USD and at current rates, they total around 1.5 Million EUR. At a 2% withdrawal rate that would give me around 30k EUyear which is probably enough to cover our cost of living.
I work remotely and can pull in 50-200k EUyear but given Spanish tax rates I'll probably be aiming to make less than <100k EUyear given how high the tax rates are for 60k EUR+. I'll consider it a "semi-FIRE" for the next few years. I still haven't decided whether to go SL or Autonomo but it doesn't seem like there is much difference between the two if I make around 100k EUR based on my calculations.
We don't have a house or plan to buy one right now as we love living internationally and will likely move somewhere new in 5-10 years.
Based on the above, I thought I was in good shape but the more I research Spanish tax rates (which must have evolved from the colonial methods of raping and pillaging all those who are not nobles) the more I'm freaking out about my tax and investment situation here.
  1. We'll live in Castilla y Leon and I understand the wealth tax kicks in at 700k Euros. Can my future wife and I share the allowance (i.e. 1.4 million Euros between the two of us?) or will I get hit for my savings over 700k unless I transfer half of my savings to her?
  2. I historically traded/invested through InteractiveBrokers with long-term passive strategies (Index funds). I'm now reading that USD/CAD ETFs are typically not available to Europeans due to EU laws. I'd rather keep my investments in a diverse mix of currencies - any recommendations on how to do that or the best low management fee ETFs in Europe?
  3. I've read on here that some types of investments can be reinvested in similar funds without being taxed on dividends/ETFs. Does anyone have a link or more information I can read on that? I'm definitely looking for tax-efficient strategies, both with respect to withholding taxes and taxes when I rebalance.
  4. How do ForEx savings/investments get converted for taxes? Is it the spot price on Dec. 31 or average in Q4 of the year or average over the entire year?
    I know a lot about investing and prefer to DIY but I really need to wrap my head around the tax situation here. There seems to be a ton of incorrect opinions and false information spread about and my lack of Spanish ability (I'm learning - but not conversant in technical stuff yet) doesn't help. My fiance and her family are pretty simple and don't seem to have a clue about the world of investing.
If anyone can recommend an English speaking tax lawyer / investment advisor who works on a reasonable fee basis that would be great too.
submitted by Baldpacker to EuropeFIRE [link] [comments]

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