Betting Odds Explained - How to Calculate Betting Odds

Carlton Football Club

Welcome to /CarltonBlues, the home of the Carlton Football Club on reddit.
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LPT: If you have a lot of free time at the moment, you can generate a little income on the side by doing online work like teaching english, transcription, microtasks or surveys. It's not a fortune but if you have time to spare anyway it's a good way to pay a few bills. (list of sites attached)

Here is a list of sites for online work that anyone can use:

Appen - Paid Projects, up to 20 hours a week. Decent pay of about $14 dollars per hour but depends on the project you can get
Lionbridge - Paid projects, great projects on offer
TeamWork - Paid projects, good site.
ClickWorker - Surveys and Writing..payments vary per task....Very good site.
Neevo - Tasks , up to $1 per task approx
Vipkid- Teach English to kids online, $15-$25 per hour or so
QKid- Same as vipkid teaching English online- I think this pays up to $20 per hour
gogokid- Teach English Online $14-25 per hour
Prolific.co - Surverys, pays very well!
Mturk - Microtasks- Pay is ok, haven't used it myself but seems fine
Rev - Transcription
TranscribeME - Transcription
GoTranscript- Transcription
Qmee- Surveys, varying payout on each one...pretty good site.
Swagbucks- Surveys, good paying.
Timebucks - Various surveys, good site.
GG2U- Surveys, good site with good payout, probably average of 1$ per survey
Serpclix - Good one for tasks/surveys...intall on your browser and it will let you know when there are some available
BrandedSurvey- Surveys
20Cogs - You complete 20 offers to get the payout, you will have to cancel a few subsciptions after some tasks but it's a good way to make about £200-£300
Panelbase.net - Surveys, Mostly they pay £1-£4
YouGov - Surveys, good site and pay is decent.
populuslive.com - Surveys, pay is decent.
Ysense - Surveys and other tasks
Prizerebel - Surveys and other tasks
Microworkers - Various tasks
HideOutTV- Watch videos and get paid
HoneyGain- You get paid for browsing the internet every month , maybe $40 or so

This got a very positive response when I posted a few months ago so I thought I'd put it out there again, Personally I use a combination of these sites to earn around £1000-£1500 a month. Hopefully it can be of help to more people, shoot me a message if you have any questions

EDIT: Ok so the reason I said I use a combination of these sites is because I have used all of them at one time or another, but here is my current combination:
Appen/Lionsbridge- Most recently worked as a social media evaluator which payed $15 per hour and gave me around 10 hours per week
Clickworker- I use the UHRS section,“Universal Human Relevance System”. It’s a partner website that can be accessed over clickworker.com and where you can process additional jobs. You can earn a lot more this way
Neevo- Various tasks , up to $1 per task approx
VipKid and other english teaching sites- I also put ads on a spanish site called tusclasesparticulares offering skype classes. Here is a link to a lot of different English teaching sites you can use from different countries
GG2U- Surveys, good site with good payout, probably average of 1$ per survey
20cogs- A good way to earn £200+ in a relatively short time
Serpclix - Good one for tasks/surveys...intall on your browser and it will let you know when there are some available
Qmee- Surveys, good site
Prolific- Surveys- Can pay very well
HoneyGain- You get paid for browsing the internet every month , maybe $40 or so
These would be my go to sites, and I sporadically check for work on the others too if I have the time.
I spend 2 hours a day doing this to earn £1000 per month but it's usually higher than that. You have to earn £33 per day in order to hit the £1000 per month mark, which is very doable when you have 20 or so sites to work with.
For me at the moment it's usually a one hour class which makes me £15 and then a combination of projects from Lionsbridge (which currently pays about $15 dollars for an hour) and then a couple of random short tasks or surveys from one of the other sites, or more if I don't do a class...Takes a while to fine tune it and I'm always modifying the combination but believe me it's more than doable. As I say, you just need to hit that £33 a day, which is actually even easier to hit in dollars if you prefer to think of it that way.

Also, and this is only useful to people in the UK, I am currently doing "Matched Betting" because the Premier league is on now and more and more sporting fixtures are making a comeback. Match betting is where you bet on one outcome in the bookies and then bet against that outcome in the exchange, with both bets at almost the same odds.
So for example, If you bet £10 for Real Madrid to win at odds of 2.5 on the betting site, and then bet for Real Madrid not to win(i.e bet against them) on the exchange at the same odds, you are covered in all outcomes, win lose or draw.
This means you have fullfilled the requirements of the betting sites offer (for example, Bet £10 and get £40 in free bets) without actually gambling, since there is no risk of losing the £10 you bet since it's matched. You then do the exact same thing with your £40 free bets, and this is where you make the profit since you're not using £40 of your own money.
Yes It's totally legal, just a loophole in the system really, although I was very suspicious of it at first. I wrote a guide explaining how to do it, you can find it at the top of my profile if you are interested. I have made about £700-£800 per month from doing this, on top of the money from other sites, but obviously this means putting in more time!
I hope this is of some help, If you have any other questions don't hesitate to ask!
submitted by IvyRoney to LifeProTips [link] [comments]

My Introduction to a Professional Sports Betting Syndicate

This is part 1 of a 3 part story I recently shared within The Betting Network community. The Betting Network or TBN is a group of sports bettors that all share information with a common goal of winning more bets. I also do weekly lessons, a mentorship program, game previews and just pass along any and all information I’ve gathered over the past 15 plus years, the main goal is to help members improve their overall sports betting IQ and help them avoid the brutal trial and error I had to go through before becoming successful in the sports betting industry.
I decided to share this story because of the feedback I received within The Betting Network, hope you guys enjoy it and also gain something from it.

PART 1/3

Before I get into the good stuff I have to explain what my job entailed at the time. The company I use to work for scraped sports betting information and data off the internet. A lot of pro bettors use “data scrapes” and what it does is it searches the internet 24/7 every second of the day for anything that has the keywords you programmed into the software. Think about how much time and effort this saves. You input “LeBron James Injury” and the second anything related to that is posted anywhere online it will be sent to you and even compiled in an organized fashion. You could put Steph Curry 3pt attempts and it will gather all that info and compile it. Data scrapes are really the only way a person could compile stats and information on entire leagues, it would take the entire season alone if you attempted to input it yourself without a scraper.
One of the most important data scrapers is for injuries and the company I worked for had it set up where it would be constantly searching the internet for injury related news and it would “ping” our computers already formatted so it could be sent out to members and social media. For example, this is what a “ping” would look like - CLE-F [LeBron James] - Calf- Questionable or GSW-G [Steph Curry] - wrist - Doubtful. Our job was to edit any errors and basically just click a button that was linked to send it out on all platforms, members text services, on twitter, everywhere we wanted. Our company's injury scrape was so good that live odds services like Don Best would simply have a scrape on our Twitter account. Pro bettors would just have notifications set for our tweets because we were breaking injury information 10 to 20 seconds before ESPN sometimes. By the way, 10 to 20 seconds is an eternity in the sports betting world. If you couldn’t tell already I’m no computer wiz, but what I believe separated our scrape from many others was how the information was formatted when we got it and how it was streamlined with all the platforms it needed to be sent out to after we got it. In other words, injury news breaks, we get the ping, hit one button and it’s sent. Other people may receive the injury information and have to type out the format and then send it out one by one to twitter or on their website. But like I said I have no fucking clue how it all works all I know is we were considered one of the best for NBA, NFL.
If you want to learn more about how to actually set up a scraper I provided a good intro to scraping link here: ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/MommyWowMyFirstScraper.html
The MIT Sloan conference is one of the biggest sports analytics conferences in the world. Myself and a few co-workers were sent to the Sloan conference to represent our company. It’s a big 2 day event and everybody from the sports world is there, anyone from sports book operators to NBA head coaches and players. Link below for this years speakers at Sloan ↙️↙️↙️
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/2020-conference/2020-speakers/
Anyone that’s heavily involved in the sports betting industry is usually there because it’s a great way to network with everyone all in one place. My company had a booth there and we would just answer questions, hand out promotional fliers and point out all the famous people we saw. This is where it gets good. While sitting at the booth a guy approaches me and asks: “What do you do”? Me: I’m a data analyst Guy: ok, but what do you do?
I explained to him my job responsibilities adding in a bunch of stuff to make it sound more important because the truth was I sat at a computer for 8hrs a day waiting for pings and answering phone calls where 90% of the callers had the wrong number. He pretended to be interested in the job details and before I could get into what he did or why he was there the convo ended with him asking if I’ll be attending day 2 of the conference. I said yes and he told me he would also be back tomorrow for day 2 and that after the conference tomorrow him and a bunch of guys were going to meet for drinks at the Westin hotel across the street from the conference, “drinks on me” he said while walking away.
The next day after the conference I went across the street to the Westin and they have a restaurant. I see “George” who I met the day before and invited me, he’s sitting at one end of a table that has 2 big tables pushed together making one big table. He waves me over and I sit next to him, there’s about 7 other people there. He tells me to order anything I want, drinks, food whatever and made a point to tell me and everyone there that he’s covering the bill. The Westin is really nice and expensive, not a place I would be going to eat and drink on my own considering I think I was making $16 an hour at this time. I couldn’t help but wonder why he invited me and only me when I had 2 other co-workers. After a couple hours and 4 vodka tonics I found out.
“George” was a professional bettor and was (still is) the head of a nationwide sports betting syndicate. He knew exactly what the company I work for dos and even knew my boss. Once we got into talking about what he does he wasted no time telling me what he wanted to do. He wanted me to notify him and his team about injuries before sending it out to the public, 15 seconds after to be exact. He knew that a majority of sports books used the live odds screen Don Best and that Don Best used our company for breaking injury news and if he was able to get the injury news before Don Best he would be able to beat the line on all the books that copied lines from them.
For example: Your bookie isn’t sitting in front of the computer moving the lines when an injury happens, it’s done automatically. Most local books set up what’s called an auto-mover and this copies the feed from another sports book. Some local books may copy the feed from say pinnacle or 5dimes or any book they feel has strong accurate lines. They can’t set up a direct feed to pinnacle or 5Dimes because established books such as those can detect software. So what they do is set the auto-mover up onto a live odds service like Don Best. Once the line moves on don best all the books that are copying lines will then move their lines.
George had software of his own that allowed him to bet games on thousands of accounts with a few clicks of a button. He explained to me how this would all work - I get the ping - CLE-F [LeBron James] - Rest - Out, I would copy and paste that onto the telegram messenger app and press send, he said sing happy birthday and when finished then I could post it to the world like I normally would. With his automated bet software he could pick off all the books that didn’t move the line yet based on Lebron being OUT. Of course not every single book was reliant on Don Best to move lines, many of the bigger well known offshore books had their own data scrapes and injury software, but more than enough books did rely on Don Best, who relied on my company. So the potential for this was through the roof.
I had some serious thinking to do, as much as I wanted to say yes on the spot my instincts held me back. I told him I had to weigh the pros and cons. After all I basically would be tanking my job duties and going from a committed employee to what seemed like a sneaky spy. It does our company and it’s members no good if I’m sending out information late or at the same time as every other company. Also, without getting too detailed regarding the financial arrangement I felt I needed to counter his offer. The biggest upside for me besides the money was my strong desire to get involved with a real sports betting syndicate but the negotiations quickly let me know that there is a dark side to the industry and I had one foot in.
To Be Continued....
PS I’ll likely share part 2 and 3 in the coming days.
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

My adventure to a 525/advice/knowledge/life tips

Howdy y’all, this was an email that I sent to all my friends that are studying right now/beginning to prepare, so please excuse the language and how personal it is. Some of my friends thought it would be helpful to post on here, and I'm all about sharing the love, so I thought why not. I'm swamped with secondaries right now (I waited until I got my score yesterday to submit them), but I will try to reply to anyones comments ASAP as possible.
Greetings friends. After a tumultuous summer I finally got my MCAT score back, and I did well enough that I feel comfortable sharing my MCAT journey and all the resources I used. I got a 525, so I like to think I might have an idea of what I’m talking about and am not full of shit. If you have any questions just let me know, we’re all in this together. I’m gonna try to break this email up by sections, but there’s a chance I might ramble so just deal with it.
A couple things to start off with:
No one really talks about this but I thought the most important thing is to have a GROWTH MINDSET 😤. No but really, if you wanna do well you need to have confidence in yourself. If you don’t believe that you can get a good score then you probably won’t. Obviously you should set realistic goals and don’t become depressed when you don’t get a 528, but I’ve always thought it was best to aim high.
Another thing is that the MCAT isn’t really a test of intelligence, it’s just a test of your work ethic. Before I did any studying I thought I’d be fine since I’ve done well in all my undergraduate classes. NOPE. Even if you have a 4.0, there will be so, so many things you haven’t seen before that you need to learn. I’ve seen a lot of people consign themselves to lower score because they think they’re not as smart as other people. Even if it doesn’t come as easily to you, if you work at it you can do better than you think.
On that note, you need to cut the bullshit out of your life and make the MCAT a priority. One thing that really helped free up my time was when I stopped going out 3 days a week. We all love the Wednesday night harp show but know what I love more? Having a stable future. It is sucky, and you won’t have as much time for your friends or relationships. This means you can’t be hanging out with the broskis every other day, you can’t be fucking your ex at 1am, and as mentioned you won’t going to the bars or parties. Yeah it is AIDS, and I’m still salty that I barely hit the bars last semester especially when they are closed for the foreseeable future. However, if you want to do the best you can then need to eliminate distractions. I was lucky enough that I have a great support system, friends, and family to help me through this process. They understood when I couldn’t hang or didn’t text back for a week, and they didn’t get pissed because they knew I had to grind. I have stories of people with friends or significant others that can’t take the lack of contact and it causes problems - I can’t tell you what to do but if that happens to you I would suggest reevaluating who you hang out with and if they have your best goals in mind.
Things that are helpful before you even start studying
Depending on who you are, there is a chance you are getting this email ahead of time before you even need to worry about the MCAT. In that case congrats on being responsible, but please enjoy your life before this consumes it. Anyway, there are a couple things that I think would be helpful that nobody ever talks about. First and foremost, being able to read quickly is a huge blessing. I have always been a nerd and used to get in trouble for reading during class, so I am lucky in that this wasn’t a huge issue for me. The MCAT is timed and presents a lot of information to process, and if you can read fast that means you can get through the material much quicker, allowing you more time to check on questions that you have flagged. Since you will be making hella flashcards (read below), it will be really helpful if you can type fast. I type all my notes for school so I am fairly proficient (lucky for y’all or there would be no way in hell I would type this novel), however if you are not the best then there are several online typing websites you can use to improve your speed. Since the MCAT is all multiple choice there will be no things that you need to type, but it will save you a tone of time during your review. Finally, this makes sense but try to do your best in your undergrad classes and learn to retain information, not just get the day. If you barely passed orgo the first time you took it then it will take even longer to relearn it for the MCAT. Likewise, even though I got a 4.0 in biochem I didn’t memorize all the pathways, and it was annoying to have to relearn it. If you are in the position, keep these tips in mind and it will save you some time.
How I studied (chronologically in general):
Tbh I kinda bullshitted my way into MCAT studying for a while, as I didn’t really know anyone else who was studying at the same time. This is one of the things I highly regret, as I feel like I wasted too much time by not having a solid plan. There are services online that will build you a study plan for like $150. I never used them because I can usually self motivate, but if you are one of those people that cannot focus then you might wanna look into it. The first couple months I spent doing content review, which basically means I went through every page of the Kaplan books and took detailed notes. In the end, this was a COLOSSAL waste of time and I highly regret it. Hundreds of hours were put into making notes that I never used again, and those hours would be much better spent doing practice questions or something else. I would still recommend looking over the books because they provide a good basis. However, if I could go back I would probably just skim through them and maybe take light notes. Another thing I will discuss more - you need to be studying using active recall, which for most people means doing practice questions or flashcards. Don’t fall into the trap of reading over notes, thinking “that makes sense,” and then moving on with your life. Studies have shown repeatedly that is simply not the move, it does not work, and it is fake news. No, you’re not better than everyone else and learn better from reading your notes. If you still wanna disagree on this, just delete the email right now and continue to delude yourself.
After I did a content review, I couldn’t really tell you what I got done. I have about a 2 to 3 month gap in my memory on how I studied, which is why I suggest using a schedule. I assume I spent most of this time doing practice questions, and I also know that I got through all of UEarth Right around this time is when COVID hit, which really threw a wrench in my plans. I was originally supposed to test on 4/25, but miss rona pushed my test back 2 months to 6/27. I knew that I needed to really get my ass in gear in the last 2 months to get up to my goal (at that time my goal was a 520), so this is when I really started to put the work in.
Since my semester had ended, I basically studied everyday, full time. I struggle with waking up in the morning, and although on average I wanted to wake up at 7 everyday I usually got up at 9. I would workout (except when I got lazy which was more often than I’d like to admit), and then make a smoothie and study. My routine usually consisted of doing my Anki review cards in the morning, doing some practice questions, then doing new Anki cards in the afternoon. Something that I struggled with was working at home, and honestly if at all possible do not study in your own house if you can avoid it. I would usually go to the student union or find a nice spot outside, and I was lucky because my roommate moved out and I was able to use his room as an office with my phone in a different room. I would usually try to do a practice test every Wednesday and Sunday, spend the following Thursday and Monday reviewing it, and then spend the other days doing any practice I had left. As I got closer and closer to the test date I was eventually running out of practice questions and had more and more Anki cards, so I would end up just doing hella Anki cards a day.
Per Section Tips
First off for every section I was kinda surprised with how well I did, a whole lotta luck and everyone’s prayers went into it so excuseeee me if I can’t back up my score.
Chemistry/Physics (C/P): This section was a pain in my ass. I had done well in chemistry and physics in class, but at least at MSU you get a cheat sheet for PHY 231/2. The MCAT has no such luxuries, and you will be forced to memorize everything. Everyone stresses on orgo, but if you look at the content breakdown orgo is only 5% of the total content, and if you didn’t feel the need to do that good you could ignore orgo and probably do fine. I noticed that after doing a lot of practices, a lot of the stuff is very repetitive and testing the same things. You need to know your distillations and kinematic equations and how to find the resistance in parallel vs series, but honestly the stuff the section covers isn’t as hard as it seems once you get used to it
Critical Analysis of Bullshit aka Reading aka CARS: If C/P is a pain in the ass CARS has been the bane of my existence. “But Paul, how hard can reading be you illiterate fuck? The answer is just there you gotta read it!” Alas, this is not the case. I’ve read all my life, I got perfect scores in ACT and SAT reading, but CARS doesn’t really test your reading ability, it just tests if you can figure out the AAMC’s bullshit logic they use when writing questions. I ended up doing well in this section on the real thing, but honestly it has been one of the hardest things to improve and I can’t really give any huge game changers I used to boost my score. One thing that did help was after each paragraph, I would take a couple seconds to mentally summarize what I just read. Some of the material is insanely boring, and unless you stay engaged it will be hard to retain it and then answer the questions. In addition, you can’t spend time trying to find every answer in the text, as sometimes it will be vaguely implied and you have to ~feel~ it. The official AAMC section banks (discussed below) offer some good practice for this, and I would also recommend signing up for Jack Westin reading passages and doing those. I honestly think CARS is just something you have to practice over time and cross your fingers, do a rain dance, and pray that it will come to you. There is no quick fix and it’s impossible to cram for, so try to just start ASAP
Biology/Biochem (B/B): So tbh I have been an intro biology TA for 4 semesters now, meaning I have technically taken the class 5 times and a lot of the basic material is child's play (why you gotta fight with me at cheesecake). First off for the love of god memorize all the amino acids, glycolysis, and the Krebs cycle. You can’t get around it, they will ask questions about it, and it is easy points. Something else that’s important (really applies for the whole exam but) is that learning how everything is interconnected and applying concepts. You can’t really use sheer memorization for this, and a lot of questions I would get right because I was like oh shit this is just like a different concept I learned that I can apply to this. There are many many topics covered in this, so like everything else I would suggest just trying to absorb as much material as you can.
Psych/Soc (P/S): Honestly it is a beauty that this section is last because it is the “easiest.” I think that if you are struggling to get your score up, this is probably the easiest section to do it in because it is just memorizing a bunch of terms. Sure you need to rote memorize a lot of stuff, but many questions are just definitions and don’t really test your problem solving that much. I also found that I always finished psych with ample time left, so it gave me time to check on your answers. One thing I’ll warn you about is on the actual test, psych was hard as hell and I felt like it was my worst section by far, while it ended up being my best one. Keep in mind that even though this section is more straightforward than other ones, there will still be some curveballs. Also, process of elimination is essential in this section, as you will often get questions that require you to know 4 different theories - even if one is something you have no clue about, you may be able to eliminate the other options.
Actual Test Day and Trusting the Process:
Alright first when you take the test (applies to full lengths and every test in general) there are a couple strategies I used that I think helped get my score. First off, when actually taking the test I would usually try to make a quick first pass on it. The MCAT setup lets you flag questions, and if there was a question I had no clue on or one that I guessed on and went back, I would flag it by clicking the flag in the upper right hand corner. This not only allowed me to get through the whole test, but meant that I wouldn’t waste time on hard questions when there were easy questions further in the test. After making my first pass I would then review all the incomplete questions and flagged ones, and if I still had time I would go through the whole test again. More than once I caught a question I hadn’t flagged that I got wrong, so this was helpful.
Something else that was helpful was meditating. I don’t think I ever truly meditated, but between sections I would close my eyes and try to focus on my breathing. I know it sounds like some hippie bullshit but it actually works, I think it kinda helps calm you down and stay focused. It is easy to feel like you bombed one section and then let it affect your other sections, but I would try to push this out of my head and think along the lines of “okay even if chemistry sucked you can still do perfect on every other section and kill it.”
Something else I wanna discuss is scoring and low yield vs high yield concepts. Low yield and high yield is something that you will hear a lot, and basically refers to content that should be expected to be seen a lot (high yield) and content you may not ever see (low yield). An example of something high yield would be the structure of amnio acids, while something low yield is something like Kuber-Ross end of life stages. Some people only focus on the high yield stuff and ignore the low yield stuff, but personally I think that is a mistake. My philosophy is that you should go into the MCAT feeling like you know everything and are prepared for anything they might throw at you. Obviously you won’t and you will still be confused on some topics, but at least you are more likely to do better. Now if you have limited time that is a different story, but if you are able I would suggest treating everything as high yield.
In regards to scoring, something to keep in mind is that it is much much easier to improve at a lower level than at a higher one. The difference between the 515 I scored in March and the 525 I got in June was only a difference of ~15 questions right, and represented hundreds of hours of studying. Tbh, I theoretically could’ve gotten a 528 if I had gotten only 3 more questions right. For that reason (at least in my opinion), it is kind of hard to study for a score past 525, and that entire range (98-100th percentile) is based on your content knowledge and luck. If you are already scoring high you will probably notice the lack of advice and guides online to scoring in that range, as most things are focused on getting you to a 515 (generally most people’s target). Similarly, if you start out at a 490 it is going to be much easier to get to a 500 then from a 500->510, and a 510->520. Just something to keep in mind as you format your plan of attack.
As you approach your test day, most advice says to just relax and not do any material, but since I’m the kid that will still be looking at his notes while the test is being passed out in the front of class, I found this hard to do. At the end of the day however, the studying you do the last day and honestly in the last week won’t make that much of a difference. If you have been scoring in the 510 range on all your official FL’s, do not expect that you will suddenly get a 520 on test day. When you take the test, you will go to the Pearson Vue testing center (leave your phone in the car), sign in, get your palm scanned and photo taken, and then be led to the testing room. You will be asked to flip out your pockets, and the proctor (in my case a student) will lead you to the room. Keep in mind that if you want, you can ask the proctor for some disposable earplugs, in addition to the over the ear headphones that are next to your computer. Miraculously, I found that my room was actually pretty quiet, and I had no trouble concentrating. I took the test in the middle of COVID, which means they shortened the test to allow for 3 tests a day in order to fit everybody in. Because of this, the test was a little under 6 hours long instead of the 7+ hours it normally is. I had a smoothie for breakfast and went to the bathroom before, and I chose not to take any of the breaks. If you feel like you need a drink of water or to take a piss, keep in mind that it takes some time to get checked in and out, so really your 10 min break turns into 5. Now after you took the test, do your best not to freak out. Personally I got jimmy johns, then sat in my car and called my dad. I felt confident on FL4 but felt like I bombed the actual test, and all I could focus on were the questions I had likely gotten wrong. This is normal, everyone feels that way, and odds are you didn’t fail. I then spent the next 2 weeks tweaking and reading horror stories of people who did good in practice and then bombed their actual test - for the love of god don’t do this, try not to do something school related, and just relax. It is out of your hands and there is nothing you can do, so don’t worry about it because I bet you did great.
How to take a full length (FL):
If you do any research online, you will likely see people refer to something called FL’s. These stand for full length tests, and they are released by AMCAS, the company that makes the MCAT. These tests are the best gauge of how well you will do on the MCAT, as I’m pretty sure they are just old MCATS. You should pretend that each FL is the real thing - that means taking it in a quiet environment, no notes, phone away, etc. There are currently 4 AAMC FL’s, which means 4 practice test (representing more than 1000 practice questions)
Now, here’s where I go against the thread. The conventional wisdom is to take your full lengths within a month of your actual test, and your test will be ±2 points of the average of your FL’s. However, I was originally supposed to test April 25th, and when it got pushed back to June 27th I had already taken FL1-3. This means I couldn’t take the average, since there were 300+ hours of studying done between FL3 and FL4. Personally, I find I learn a lot from reviewing practice questions, and as such it’s going to be natural to improve on subsequent ones. A lot of people only focus on actually taking the test, but actually reviewing the test is essential, and probably one of the most important things to do when studying for the MCAT. Every question is multiple choice, and therefore has 1 right answer and 3 wrong answers (except the questions like I, I & II, II & III but fuck those questions). This means that when doing any sort of practice, you should not only know why the right answer is right but why the other 3 are wrong. If you can do this for every question, you know your stuff. To test if you’re doing it right, if you were to look through old practices you should be getting almost every question right. If not, you probably need to focus on how you review information. My scores on the full lengths were 514, 515, 513 (rip CARS) and 524.
A note on third party practice tests - do NOT trust scores from third party tests, at least not at face value. First of all, the companies have a financial incentive to make them harder. You might notice that companies like Kaplan have a money back guarantee if you don’t do better on the actual test than their practices. To make sure you never claim it, they make their tests way harder than the real thing. For reference, I got 510 on a Kaplan FL and scored 524 on FL4 the next week. Furthermore, the AAMC has a very specific format that you need to get used to, a format not used by other test making companies. This holds especially true in CARS - basically disregard any 3rd party cars test, as it is fake news.
Anki
I was going to throw this in the section below but I realized that Anki was so instrumental in my success it deserves it’s own separate header. Anki is basically a flashcard app, but it has some features that make it amazing. When you use online flashcards like quizlet, it will basically have your cards in a pile and there is no way of ranking them. With Anki, whenever you look at a card you can rank it by difficulty, and then cards that are easy will go to the back of your pile while difficult ones will stay at the top. That way you can maximize your time. What you should be doing is basically making an Anki card on anything and everything. This includes right and wrong questions, things that you kinda know but not quite, things you see online that you aren’t 100% confident of. If there is a topic that you don’t know well enough to teach to another person, you should make a card for it.
This is mentioned below, but in addition to making your own cards I would use a master deck. That is basically a compendium of all the knowledge that will be on the test. They are usually not super in depth, but offer a great way to get a general understanding of stuff.
The important thing after making the cards is actually using them, and this is where I dropped the ball. I didn’t really start going through my Anki decks until a little over a month before the MCAT, and since I had accumulated over 6000 cards including the master deck it meant I was doing more than a thousand reviews a day. Anki is made for long term learning not cramming, and I would recommend working on cards simultaneously as you make them.
I am not an expert on Anki, but there are a lot of YouTube videos and resources out there that can explain it better than I. I would also recommend downloading the Heatmap add-on to track your progress and to motivate you to keep up with it, as well as the image resizer add on to make it easier to add screenshots.
Also something that made studying easier for me was that I would often do my Anki cards while hammocking. Obviously it would be difficult depending on your location/the season, but I love outdoors and it was much better for me to work on a deck outside rather than cramped inside an office.
Some of you have requested I send my Anki decks, which I did because once again, we are all in this together. However, I would generally warn against using other peoples flashcards or Anki decks. If we both took the same test there would be questions I thought were easy that you thought were hard, and vice versa. It is gonna be a waste of time, since your study plan should be custom to
YOU, nobody else.
Seriously though, download Anki and use it. Without Anki I would not have done well. Plz.
Other Resources I Used:
AAMC Official Material - This includes the full lengths I previously discussed, as well as other section banks with official practice questions. These are very helpful, as they are written by AMCAS and the MCAT is written in a specific way. You will notice as you study more that while questions test certain knowledge, but official questions are written differently than 3rd party ones. Among the AAMC resources are something called Section Banks. These are basically the hardest questions that are likely to show up on the test. Don’t fret when you get half of them wrong, because they’re designed to be hella hard. They are another great resource to study from, because if you can nail the hardest content then everything else will seem easy.
UEarth - UEarth can straight up have my children, it is probably one of if not the best resource you can use. Basically UEarth is a paid service that has 1900 practice questions, styled exactly like the MCAT. Questions are broken up by sections (Chem, Physics, Bio, Biochem, Psych, Soc, Reading), and furthermore by subsections (for example Chem could have circuits, magnets, thermo, mirrors, etc). UEarth allows you to make custom practice tests, and you can choose the type of questions you want. The real beauty of UEarth is that they give detailed explanations for every question, including why the wrong answer is wrong. This allows you to figure out why you chose the wrong answer (which as mentioned, is important). I went through UEarth on my first pass over spring break (and made Anki cards for them), and then went back over a month or so later and redid all of the questions I had gotten wrong previously. This was important, because if I still got them wrong it meant that I didn’t learn the subject.
Kaplan - Most people purchase a set of books, and the 2 most common are the Princeton Review and Kaplan. They’re basically the same, so flip a coin or whatever. One thing that is nice with Kaplan is you have access to their online services. At the end of each chapter in the book there is a 15 question quiz, and they have all these online when you make an account. They also provide you with 3 free practice tests, which are nice.
NextStep Full Lengths - As I’ve mentioned, I learn best when doing practice questions. NextStep is a third party company that sells practice tests and section banks. Even though they are very deflated, they still are great for testing your content knowledge. I got the bundle of 6 tests, and was able to do so when they had a sale. Depending on how long you are studying for, I would definitely use NS tests if you can.
JackWestin CARS practice - JackWestin is apparently just a dude that is good at reading. CARS is one of the hardest sections on the MCAT, and he has a free email service where you sign up and they send you one passage a day. I would recommend doing that literally after you’re done reading the novel I’m writing right now, and then actually do it. I had like a 3 month period where I would just delete the emails every day, and that is stupid. If you do one passage a day you’ll spend only ~10 minutes, but you’ll be doing the equivalent of an entire CARS practice every week.
MileDown Anki Deck - Legend has it that Mr. Miledown was an extremely gracious person sho spent his gap year making a comprehensive review of all the MCAT material. The Miledown deck is an Anki deck of a few thousand flashcards that encompass all of the knowledge that should be on the MCAT. Theoretically, if you go through the entire deck and learn everything then you will know everything that will be on the MCAT. It can be downloaded from reddit if you google it. There are several other master decks (the other one I know of is Jack Sparrow), I only used the MileDown one and I was fine but do some digging.
Reddit - this was also instrumental for my MCAT success. I was never big into reddit, but I made an account specifically when preparing. There is an MCAT subreddit with an absolute wealth of knowledge. If you have a question, I can almost guarantee that someone has asked it before. There are tons of people that are apparently altruistic af, and will take time out of their day to give detailed answers. Reddit is also huge when reviewing your FL’s. If you have a tricky question google “reddit MCAT FL# C/P #” and there will probably be multiple threads with different explanations. Reddit also has some funny memes and people will post very helpful tips or study sheets. There’s also lots of posts like what I’m writing now, where people will outline their study strategy and give tips. I think one of the reasons people do so bad on the MCAT (after all 50% of people score below a 500) is simply because they are not aware of what is out there.
Stuff attached to this email - I attached some of my favorite resources that I used when preparing. Highlights include the Khan Academy document and The Miledown Overall Review pdf. Some of the website links are to very specific topics, but ones that I struggled with and found helpful. It’s helpful, and ctrl f is your friend. I also attached my Anki decks.
What I Wish I Did Differently:
I obviously got a great score, however there were several things that I would have changed. As mentioned, I wasted a lot of time on my content review. Unless you are actively recalling the content, there is very little you will learn from reading and taking notes. I could have easily shaved a couple hundred hours off my study time if I kept this in mind. If I had an actual schedule to follow, I would definitely have been more efficient - some people find that it helps to have a study buddy to keep each other accountable. In addition, I should have been more diligent at following a routine and waking up early. Especially in summer with my test 2 months away, it was really easy to sleep in until 10. I would try to remind myself that if I woke up 3 hours earlier, that means I can finish 3 hours earlier. In the same vein, it is important to set boundaries while you study and try to enjoy your life. I would often try to “study” until 10 at night, which usually consisted of me going on my phone while my laptop was open with flashcards. This is just stupid, either you are studying or not; you can’t halfass it.
Miscellaneous
You might have noticed that I didn’t do any sort of standardized program. It may work for some, but personally I find that when you’re being taught with everyone else, it is very easy to either get ahead and be wasting your time or fall behind and struggle. I am also poor. Many people like private tutoring, however that is also extremely expensive and many times it is easier to find the answer yourself.
In a similar thread, you need to keep in mind that MCAT companies are for profit companies. This is where my cynicism will show through - the primary goal of these companies is to maximize profit, not get you the best score. Of course they want you to do well so they will look good, and I’m sure individual teachers do care, however as a whole they are trying to sell you something. As part of my Kaplan book set I was able to have a 30min call to help plan for studying. When I asked her about other resources like UEarth and Nextstep, it was evident that she was basically told by her boss not to endorse anyone but Kaplan, so she steered me back towards their own products. They are not praying on your downfall, but just keep that in mind when you get advice from someone.
Also if you can’t tell already, the MCAT is hella expensive. Including the fee for taking the test, I spent around $1100 throughout the whole process. I was lucky to be in a position where I was able to work over the semester to save up, but it is something to think about.
Something that also really helped me was an app called Forest. It is an app that will grow mini virtual trees when you don’t use your phone for a given amount of time. Growing trees gets you coins, which you can use to unlock more trees and even use to get the company to plant real trees. It sounds cheesy, but it was really helpful for me and helped me stay off my phone.
A note on mental health:
The MCAT is a real bitch, and I knew of lots of people that I either knew personally or saw online that had their mental health really affected. I am lucky enough to not suffer from high anxiety or other disorders, but given how stressful it was for me I can’t imagine dealing with it on top of other shit. At the end of the day, the MCAT is just another standardized test and the score doesn’t define who you are. At worst you would have to retake it, and even if you have to take a gap year it is not the end of the world. Ik you might think it is easy for me to say since I got a good score, but even after I got the score in the back of my mind I was like hmm well if I had gotten XYZ right maybe I would’ve done even better. Unless you’re a genius you probably won’t get a 528, and that is okay. Do the best you can, remind yourself that med school admissions are holistic, and at the end of the day remember to take time for self care.
Alright folks that’s a wrap. I think I included most of my thoughts, but I’m sure I forgot a few things. Let me know if you have any other questions, you can reply to this email or just text me. Feel free to send this to your friends, I really don’t care and I want everyone to do as best they can on the MCAT. We are all smart and capable and we will all get into medical school and be doctors someday. I believe in you.
Everything you need to know in science: https://jackwestin.com/resources/mcat-content/aamc-mcat-science-outline
Electrostatic Equations: https://www.reddit.com/Mcat/comments/ha9rff/tips_for_understanding_electrostatics_instead_of/
Understanding linear to chair conformations of sugars: https://www.organicchemistrytutor.com/converting-between-fischer-haworth-and-chair-forms-of-carbohydrates/
Converting 3rd party FL scores to actual ones: http://joel.vg/converting-3rd-party-mcat-scores-to-actual-scores/
Memorizing Erikson stages: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BcwntGAB34
Link to MileDown MCAT Overall Review (too large to attach): https://www.reddit.com/MCAT2/comments/96hwed/umiledown_s_god_tier_review_sheets/
submitted by Spartan10142 to Mcat [link] [comments]

[OC] We intend no harm - Chapter 23 (Hynian Adrenaline)

Hello again.
Well well well. This chapter took a bit longer, because I had to deal with friends and food and fun. All that stuff keeping me from writing ;)
As usual, I wasn’t sure how things would turn out. But now that the chapter is complete, I’m satisfied.
Have fun reading.
First | Wiki | Previous | Next
Captain Zork was standing in the crammed map room. He listened to Zokosh reporting the events that had led to his weapons officer’s death. When he heard that she had been attacked while showering he felt bad that he had to question her. But it was the standard procedure for murder cases. Luckily Zokosh knew this procedure. She had stated at the beginning of the ‘interrogation’ that she would take no offence and he was just doing his job.
While he listened to her, he noticed that Zokosh did not seem to be distressed over the events. Her voice was as calm and steady as if she was reporting a slight malfunction in an unimportant subsystem. When she described how she pierced him with her knife, her voice took on an subtle sharpness and disdain. It was easily missable, but when the captain picked it up he felt its icy chill creeping down his spine. He instantly hoped to never incur her wrath.
After the Captain had tried to poke a few holes into her story, as it was mandated, he told her to get some rest. While Zokosh went to her quarters to properly dry off, the captain went to the crime scene. Karom the ships medic was already examining the body. The Captain told him Zokosh’s story.
“That matches the evidence.” Karom pointed at the dead hynian male with the combat knife sticking in his skull. “But there was something I found strange when I looked at the crime scene.”
“Something strange? What do you mean?” The Captain asked looking at the corpse and than at the shower stall trying to find something odd.
“Look at the body. There are no knife wounds. A lot of scratches from claws and some bruises. But if she had the knife in her hand, shouldn’t there be at least some stab marks?” He bent a bit forward and jabbed his hand repeatedly against an imaginary opponent.
Now the captain understood immediately. “If you look at the scratches on his chest, she could have stabbed him a dozen times. Maybe she had to pick up the knife from somewhere.” He looked at the Stall. It was the easy to clean kind, just a flat wall with a single push button for activating the shower. No shelf to store shower gel, shampoo or knifes. Zokosh’s stuff was still standing on the floor.
“I can’t imagine her picking up a knife from the floor during a fight. I heard that a crewmember had seen her putting the knife between her lips. But you told me, he had put his hand on her mouth.” Karom said and showed the captain the corpse’s right palm with the bloody bite marks.
Zork’s ears twitched while he was thinking. “You're right. Something is strange.”
The medic pulled the bloody knife out of the body’s skull with his gloved hand. Then he looked at the injury. He gently closed the knife's wound with his fingers. “Look at that.” In the middle of the closed cut was still a round hole.
“What kind of weapon would leave a small hole like this?” Captain Zork asked confused.
“Hmm … something like a stiletto dagger, maybe? But why hide the wound with the knife? And then again 'where would she keep it'.” The old medic was thinking hard. “I heard some rumors about the Secret Order. Allegedly they are using...”
“Shut it!” Hissed the Captain causing the Medic to flinch. “Don’t talk about them.” After the captain had calmed down he continued. “So, he was attacking her in the shower and she killed him in self defense?”
“Yes, Captain. The evidence backs it up. It looks like he was waiting in the stall at the far end for his opportunity. After Admiral Xem was able to struggle free, she pierced his skull. If I could do an autopsy, I could tell you if he died of blood loss or because she broke through the bone and penetrated the brain.” Stated the medic.
Zork sighed. “Well, that was not the kind of penetration he had hoped for.” He had known the dead guy only for a few months, so he wasn’t too attached.
In hynian culture women did not have the same rights as men had. They were meant to be pleasant and nice to look at. Just like the beautiful flowers in the imperial palace’s gardens had to be protected from pests trying to feast on them, it was the honor and duty of men to do the same. Ironically some of the most beautiful flowers in the gardens were poisonous enough to kill any pest touching them. Of course the Captain had never been in those gardens, but every hynian knew about that metaphor.
“Do you still need that?” The captain pointed at the former weapons officer.
After the Medic flicked his ear dismissively, the Captain grabbed the dead guy’s jumpsuit and ripped his rank insignias off. Then he wrapped the jumpsuit around the corpses neck and dragged him across the ship.
The rumor has spread fast around the Cheshnak Ra. So the crew gave their best to not notice the corpse. All of them knew what Zork was about to do. A captain was responsible for his crew, so it was his job to rid them of their collective shame.
When he reached the trash compactor the first officer was waiting for him. He did not salute, it would have been a disgrace to the emperor to do that in front of trash. Except for the FO only the crew members working in this section were present, they were focusing intensely on their mundane tasks.
“For the report. He was not killed in action. He had been trialed, judged and executed for sexual assault. He has become the pest in the garden. Thus he was stripped of his honor as a man and his rank as an officer. He will not be permitted into the afterlife. His family will be informed that he is neither be named nor grieved. He will have never existed.”
After the FO had filed the record, the captain hoisted the corpse into the trash compactor and closed the lid. The crushed and mangled corpse would be disposed with the rest of the Cheshnak Ra’s waste. In cynian culture the body had to decompose to let the soul reach the afterlife. Pressing a body into a cube and letting it drift through hyperspace was the ultimate punishment.
It would take a few days until it would be time to dispose of the trash. Of course they could throw it out right now, but nobody dared to give this pest even that amount of attention. Later someone would sneakily dispose of the tainted jackpot as well.
++++++
After Admiral Zokosh had returned to her quarters, she took off her jumpsuit and started to dry herself properly. Once she was done, she climbed into her bed and switched the light off. She had been lying in the darkness for a while, but she was unable to sleep. Her blood was still saturated with adrenalin. With an annoyed hiss she got up again, put her clothes on and left her quarters.
Most species especially prey races had a flight response when they faced danger. Some had a fight or flight response. Hynians instinctive reaction was always to fight, they had to willfully work against their biology to flee or surrender. Luckily their bodily reaction was not as strong during ‘unpersonal’ fights like spacebattles. A crew on adrenaline could not operate a spaceship properly. But in ground combat or even hand to hand combat, their instincts would still trigger the same chemical processes as eons before.
Hynian adrenalin was an impressive ‘drug’. They produced more of it than any other species and it was way more potent. There are reports of hynians who ripped tendons because their muscles were overstimulated in particularly intense life or death situations. The other thing that was special was that the adrenaline would not dissipate for a few hours.
Zokosh knew that she needed her brain to realize that the threat was gone. Seeing your enemy dead before you would normally do the trick, but the pest’s death was so quick, that her brain refused to stop producing adrenaline. There were two more ways to get rid of it. She was not in the mood for one of the methods right now. It would also undermine her authority and her self respect. So she took the other option.
Soon after she left her quarters the Admiral reached one of the storage rooms. She opened the door and looked inside. Some of the night shift who were on standby were training with weights or sparring with each other. Even the best life support systems could not get rid of the humid smell of fresh sweat.
The one crewman who was facing the door almost dropped his weights when he saw the Admiral. Of course everyone knew what happened a few hours ago. Zokosh flicked her ear signaling him to keep on. Then she walked over to the half naked guy pummeling the punching bag. His blue skin was glistening in the artificial light of the makeshift gym.
Zokosh tapped him on the shoulder. “Excuse me, but I really neeeed that right now.” She blushed a bit, when her voice had such an seductive tone. With this amount of pheromones in the air her body seemed to have considered option one against her will.
The crewman looked surprised at her and then at the punching bag. It took him a moment to understand, then he smiled and stepped back. “All yours, Admiral.”
“Thanks, Crewman. As long as I’m off duty, you can call me by my name. If you think you earned it, you can call me Zok.” She responded returning the smile. This offer was directed to everyone present. Then she started to beat the punching bag with a combination of many fast jabs mixed with some heavy blows. She was quick on her feet evading imaginary attacks. From time to time she sprinkled some kicks into the mix.
The crewmen who were training were giving their best to not mess up their training routines, while watching the woman dish out one hell of a beating. Of course all of them had heard how she toyed with that guy before she boarded the Cheshnak Ra. But seeing her go all out was a sight to behold.
Zokosh was the beautiful daughter of a duke, so she could be seen as the epitome of what hynian women should be like. Right now she did not give a fuck on proper conduct. She wanted that adrenaline out of her system and it felt great pummeling away at the sandbag. Because of the adrenaline her stamina had increased about tenfold. She could not care less about sweating or the eyes that she could feel on her.
The crewman had grown up in hynian society, so they were raised to see women as beautiful but fragile. Some of them were shocked to see how intense Zokosh could be. Some were discovering that they really liked that kind of woman.
After 15 minutes of a nonstop beating, Zokosh decided to get more air. Without a second thought she unzipped her jumpsuit to her midriff and let it fall from her back. She was wearing a sports bra, because she had anticipated that this might happen. After she tied her sleeves around her waist she continued the pummeling.
Wearing a tight top like a sports bra during training was not that uncommon. But because the crewmembers weren’t expecting her to do that and because all they had on this ship were data sticks with red dots, they looked at her surprised and a bit too intrigued. Zokosh did not care. Maybe that was caused by the slowly decreasing amounts of adrenaline in her blood.
One of the guys who were sparring earlier was walking over to Zokosh. He was shirtless and had wrapped his sleeves around his waist just like her. “You look like you need something better than that old bag.” He flicked an ear at her, obviously joking with whatever he meant. His fellows laughed amused.
Zokosh smirked at him, while beating the living daylight out of the punching bag. “You want to help me get rid of the adrenaline? I’m sure your idea involves that mat. But are you brave enough to take me on in front of your friends? Might be embarrassing, if you were finished after a few seconds.” She was breathing heavily while talking.
Goshk looked surprised for a moment. He had expected her to reprimand him or make him clarify that he had sparing in mind. For a moment he thought about trying his luck today and offer her some private practise somewhere else, but then he decided against it. “I would be totally up for that but I meant sparing.”
“Brave enough to admit, but smart enough to make the right choice.” Zokosh responded smirking impishly, not revealing what she was thinking about that. Before she went to the sparring area, she took a chug of water from her bottle.
While they were taking positions the other eleven crewmen surrounded them. Zokosh looked at them her heart was still pumping fast. “I can’t go back to the sandbag after fighting for real. So you guys better get ready, if Goshk goes down to fast.”
After she said that, they were discussing the order in which they were facing her. If you were to late in line, you might not get a chance at all. If you were to far in the front, you would most likely get beaten quickly. The best places were somewhere in the middle. Grappling with this sweaty women sounded alluring to all of them.
“Any rules other than the standard?” Asked Goshk.
“Hmm … If you try to cop a feel, I’ll knock you out. Except for that, no holds barred.”
“Fair enough.”
One of the spectators gave the starting signal and the sparring partners started to circle each other. Goshk knew that if he waited for to long Zokosh would recover her stamina, so he had to make his move quickly. He lowered his center of gravity and tried to grapple the Admiral. She dashed sideways and hooked his foot with hers, causing him to stumble. In this situation she could have brought him down and locked him to the mat easily, but she wanted this fight to last longer than one exchange.
Zokosh let him turn towards her before she attacked him with a flurry of punches and jabs. Of course she did not go all out on him, like she did with the punching bag. She used just enough force to make sure he would not want to get hit. He protected himself pretty well and used an opening to start his counter.
The spectators were watching the fight in suspense. The two opponents were enjoying the spar just as much as the spectators. This time Zokosh did not have to show off, so she held herself just enough back to keep the fight enjoyable. She was sure that Goshk must have noticed it. After a few minutes Goshk managed to grapple her, making him the crew member with the closest contact to a women in months. Zokosh held against it, trying to topple the bigger Hynian.
Her heart was still beating fast and now it was pounding against the males chest. She did not notice it, but the spectators were quite envious of him. After both of them showed some impressive footwork, Zokosh managed to hook Goshk's leg. All she needed to do now was to push her upper body a bit more against her opponent to throw him off balance.
Goshk fell backwards and Zokosh slipped out of the grapple. When he hit the ground, she grabbed him and placed him in an armlock. Her leg was bent and her shin was pressing against his face while she was locking his arm whith hers. To do that she clamped his forearm between her upper arm and her flank, while holding his upper arm with her hands. She did not use enough pressure to cause him pain, but her grip left him nowhere to go.
“Do you give up?” Zokosh smiled victoriously. Her adrenaline levels were now dropping fast.
“You got me.” he replied with her leg in his face. “You held back, didn’t you?”
“It’s more fun that way. I hope you don’t want to complain.” She let go of him and laid down on the mat breathing exhausted. She was still smiling. The reduced adrenaline make her realize, that she was showing the crewmembers way more than they should see. Hynian adrenaline was one hell of a drug.
She knew she should cover herself, but she still needed some time to cool down. Luckily the spectators were surprisingly decent. They had openly watched her pummel the sandback and they had looked at her during the fight, but now that she was lying on her back breathing heavily, they went back to their training routines. Maybe they had looked enough earlier. Whatever the reason, it gave Zokosh the time she needed.
Goshk had already gotten up. He was not ‘high’ on adrenaline, so he had noticed how her chest felt against his. He could have sworn that he felt her heart pounding. While he was drinking from his bottle, he looked at the half naked smiling woman. His ears raised for a moment, then they flicked in opposite directions.
“I’m going to get a shower. I’m all sweaty and stuff.” He said to no one in particular.
One of the less buff, more cheeky crewmen responded. “Better take a long shower, to get all that ‘sweat’ out … off. I meant get that sweat off.” The rest of the guys chuckled, but it didn't bother Goshk. They were just jealous that he got a good reason to take a shower.
Zokosh did not react, maybe she did not even hear it. She was focusing on herself. She savored feeling her heart rate slow down and her muscles relax. When had finished her post adrenaline rush ‘meditation’ she got up and put the upper part of her jumpsuit back on.
“Thanks for letting me rest.” Zokosh was pulling her zipper back up. “I guess i need another shower.” She said to herself.
The cheeky guy responded again. “Don't worry, we’ll stay here. Except you want someone guard the door.”
She smiled at him. “Thanks for the offer, but that won't be necessary. Good night, guys.”
“Sleep well, Admirell.” Responded the group.
Zokosh flicked her ears in an amused way and left. ‘When did they come up with that?’
When the Admiral had left the improvised gym. One of the guys laughed. “Dude, you could have told her that Goshk is ‘showering’. If she goes there now she'll totally run into him.”
“You could have also told her. But you didn’t. Maybe they go for a round two in the shower? I don’t want to rob Goshk of that chance.” The cheeky one laughed again.
“You know that she just stabbed a guy in there, might be a bit strange to do it.”
“She looked like a case of adrenaline rush, not like she was bothered or something like that. The law says that he is to be forgotten. So doing it right there would be fine. At least I would totally do it there if I had the chance.” He explained.
“You would do it anywhere if you had the chance.”
The guys laughed.
“Hey, wanna bet if they do it?” Asked one of them
++++++
Zokosh was writing a message on the datapad taped to the door. ‘Attention. I'm taking a quick shower. Please do not disturb. Zokosh.’ After she did that, she opened the door and waltzed in. She blushed when she saw Goshk walking naked from the bench to the shower stalls.
Goshk had expected to have the shower all to himself, it was the middle of the night after all. He looked surprised and confused at Zokosh. Than he looked down on himself and at the reason why he needed that shower.
The female Hynian bit her lower lip while she was looking at him. “Can you keep a secret?” She asked.
“Hm? I guess?” He replied still confused.
Zokosh closed the door behind her. “That’s not good enough. I’m an Admiral and a noble. Can you keep a secret?” She repeated her question, slowly unzipping her jumpsuit.
Now it finally clicked for him. “Yes! I’m really good at keeping secrets!”
“That’s good. If someone asks, I have seen you in your underpants we had a laugh and then I went to bed.” She was stripping fast letting her clothes trail behind her. When she reached the enamored male, she pushed him eagerly into the shower stall.
First | Wiki | Previous | Next
I wasn’t sure, if they should hook up. At first I wanted to add the shower scene as a funny mishap, but then I thought, that the two got some good chemistry.
I hope you enjoyed it :) good night.
submitted by UpIsOben to HFY [link] [comments]

DD: Covid cases are spiking...but buy these instead of SPY puts!

DD: Covid cases are spiking...but buy these instead of SPY puts!
Hello fellow Autists! Longtime reader, first DD post for me. Like the rest of you, I see the writing on the wall with the spiking cases in Florida, Arizona, California, Texas (I am in Houston), etc. and want to profit from the next market move. I believe many of these states will be slow to respond with effective quarantine measures, and anecdotally I have seen very limited compliance with social distancing and mask guidelines. Due to the long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, the case count spike we are seeing is most likely from exposure 2-3 weeks ago, and opportunities for spread have only increased since then. Additionally, a large percentage of the population is unable to interpret widely available public data and believes the increased case count is a fabrication because "we are testing more". However, a linear regression of the data for Texas shows the percent of tests that come back positive has increased from an average of ~4% 30 days ago to ~12% now, while the average number of tests have only increased by 10-20%. It is very clear from the data that we are seeing community spread at an exponential rate. Many will not come to this realization and alter their behavior until one of their loved ones becomes very sick. This will allow several more weeks of community spread to go on before R0 is brought back below 1. If the death count gets high enough, fear will take over and many will shelter in place again, either voluntarily or by mandate. The V-shaped recovery thesis becomes much harder to defend at this point, to say the least.
For those of you still reading, you are probably thinking "I know all of this, how do I make those sweet, sweet tendies, fuckface?". Most of you are banking on SPY puts, but I think you might have better odds at a roulette table. The Fed has killed price discovery, and can severely restrict the risk/reward ratio of bearish positions with literally an infinite arsenal. The retail investors know this and will buy any dips, and any new shelter-in-place orders gives Jerome a fantastic excuse to fire up the digital printer again. Don't fight the Fed, and don't bet against a retail-mania driven bubble. However, the Fed is not interested in propping up the price of oil (gasp!).

Chart with colors and lines and shit so you know I is tarded
West Texas Crude dropped from a pre-COVID high of $65/bbl to futures at negative $37/bbl as a result of the demand destruction from worldwide quarantines. During this same period, an ETF that inversely tracks crude at a 2x clip, SCO, went from $12 to an intra-day peak of $67. SCO spiked twice more in the following days as crude underwent wild price swings. Fast-forward to today. Crude just formed a double-top chart pattern $40.50, exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level from it's January 2020 peak to it's April 20th low. This all-time low occurred an entire month after SPY bottomed on March 23rd, and this is because crude prices are actually driven by...wait for it...supply and demand. In other words, crude is still driven by fundamentals, while the stock market is (currently) not. In fact, government bailouts of the struggling US shale oil companies would only allow them to continue to flood the market, further driving down the price of oil.
The US Energy Information Administration has forecasted 2H 2020 crude prices to average $37/bbl based on a V-shaped recovery (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php). We are currently at $40/ bbl based on OPEC+ compliance and recovery optimism, and we aren't even into Q3. There are too many variables for me to accurately predict actual crude demand in a W-shaped scenario as subsequent infection spikes slow the world's energy demands down again, but a gain in crude stocks will immediately send prices falling. I would expect crude to look for support near the 50% retracement level around $32/bbl, which would push SCO approximately 40% higher than current due to the daily compounded 2x leverage. Another wave of government mandated lockdowns would likely see crude fall to $25 or below, which would put SCO at around $44. Another Oil-geddon scenario would put SCO -at $60 or more.

EIA 2021 Forecast
Risks
Nothing boosts oil prices like a foreign conflict, and tensions have certainly been on the rise this year. An airstrike on a tanker would be a bad headline for this position. Also further OPEC+ cuts would not be good news for me, but many of the participating countries are facing recessionary pressure and may violate their agreements to attempt to save their own budgets. If I am missing any other risks, please let me know.
TL;DR
COV-SARS-2 is once again pressuring global energy demand. The Fed can fuck your SPY puts, but might actually hurt oil prices. Go long on SCO or go with UCO puts. Choose expiration and strike price per your risk tolerance.
Buying SCO directly will decouple the risk associated with trying to time the market. But I know how safe you guys like to play it, so load up on those puts! 🚀🚀🚀
Trade Updates
6/24, 10:00 - I have 7,000 shares of SCO cost averaged in at $17.50. After peaking at $41.62 yesterday, WTI is now trading below $39 on news that crude stocks are building while COVID cases continue to rise exponentially in parts of the US and the world.
6/24, 12:15 - RSI hit oversold on the bounce, so I bought 2,000 more shares. Shaping up to be an excellent day. 10% plus daily gains on an almost 200k position with lots more room to run. Also interesting to note that crude stocks actually gained today even before second wave demand destruction is here. Oil is down over twice as much as SPY for the reasons explained above.
6/25, 7:30 - WTI is down another 2% in pre-market on second wave fears. $37 was a level of support for June 9-17th, and we are right up against it again. If we break through today the next level is at $34.50 for another 15% or more of profits.
6/25, 9:00 - WTI bounces HARD off of the $37 support level on news that continuing unemployment claims dropped slightly. Lesson learned: take partial profits when prior levels of support are reached and buy back in after either support is breached with conviction or next level of resistance is met.
6/26, 8:00 - WTI durdled at the $39 resistance level overnight and is now falling hard pre-market. Looks like I may have a chance to try the partial profit-taking strategy above later today.
6/26, 14:55 - Another strong day, but we did not retest the $37 WTI level again. I took some partial profits (4,000 shares) at end of the day and will watch oil prices through the wknd. As predicted, Texas is already rolling back re-opening plans and cases continue to build exponentially all over the South. South America and India are showing textbook exponential rises as well. I also started some positions in AHPI and APT to play the potential mandatory mask laws. So far the trade is up over $15k.
6/29, 9:30 - Oil is recovering on more economic bullishness. I was stopped out of the rest of my position at $18.50. I will let the dust settle and find another entry point later this week.
7/5 - Several states have rolled back re-opening guidelines as cases continue to grow exponentially. I will be watching WTI action overnight to see if a bearish head and shoulders pattern will complete.
submitted by HypnoticStrix to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How To Actually Get Over A Breakup and Get Your Ex Back (Based on Science) [Revised Edition]

I know you are going through hell right now. You are sad, confused, angry, depressed, and sometimes numb. You go from sad to angry then to numb. Or you are just sad all the time or even just angry all the time. I am here to tell you that whatever emotions you are going through is normal. It is totally normal to feel these painful emotions and even be confused by them. You don't go from grief to anger, you switch around a lot. Your emotions are basically all over the place. Guilt, shame, disappointment, and hopelessness are quite common too. You might be also experiencing panic and anxiety attacks, heartache (literally), episodes of depression, headaches, stomach problems, loss of appetite, insomnia. You can't stop thinking about your Ex and what they have done to you.
To make matters worse, our friends and family aren't being the most helpful. At first, maybe they were supportive. And then later they just started being dismissive to our feelings by saying things like "Just move on already" or "There is a lot of fish in the sea". This causes us to feel like there is something wrong with us, that we should have moved on already. This notion makes us blame ourselves for feeling this pain. I am here to tell you that there is NOTHING wrong with you for feeling this way. There is no RIGHT amount of time to take to "move on" and none of it is your fault.
Heartbreak is universal and has existed for more than thousands if not millions of years of our existence (Fisher, 2017). You can trace poems about broken hearts from the ancient Egyptian pyramids to ancient Inuit cave dwellings. Look at the top 100 songs on the billboards right now, the majority are songs about our broken hearts. Where there is love, there will be heartbreak. Your experience is excruciating, but fortunately not unique. Our species has survived and thrived after getting their hearts smashed into bits for thousands of years. So, YOU can too.
You don't feel like yourself. You don't think you will ever be happy again. Fortunately, you are going to be OKAY. It will take a while but you will get back to who you were before. I promise on our broken-hearted ancestors. I prepared this guide so this process is much easier. This guide also outlines the best way to get your ex back, if you want that. These tips are not in chronological order, you do not need to follow them one after another.
1) Acceptance
Maybe you realized before it happened or maybe the break up got you by surprise. Either way, it’s devastating. You hope this is some nightmare and you will get up and everything will get back to normal. But no, this is your reality right now. The relationship is over. It’s okay to be in shock and denial in the first few weeks but eventually, you will just have to accept it. It will be difficult to accept it, but you have to do it to get to the next healing stage. Accept what happened. Denial will only prolong your suffering.
2) Grieve your loss
Cry your heart out, doesn't matter if you are a guy or a girl. Start your day with a good cry. It lifts a huge burden and you walk lighter throughout the day. Break up music, pictures of your ex, old texts are all good things to use to start bawling if you are having trouble crying. Angry? Punch a pillow, yell into the pillow! Do whatever it takes to get your anger out, as long as it's not harming anyone else. This grief will come in waves. Some days you might not feel it as much, but some days it hits you hard. That is normal. So cry! Process your emotions, don't hold it in. Holding it in will compound it and it will come out in different ways. There is no timeline for you to process grief. Don't let anybody tell you "In 6 months you will stop crying". Your healing process is YOUR healing process. Take however long. It might also hit you unexpectedly, a year into the healing journey when you think you are doing great then you hear a song you both liked and boom. You are hit with sadness. It does diminish over time so, be patient. The intensity and frequency of "grief attacks" and "anger attacks" lessen over time.
Sometimes we are disappointed not because they left but because they did not fulfill our expectations. Such as getting married to us, having our babies, etc. These dreams can be fulfilled by somebody else. You are not sad because they were the one, you are sad because you THOUGHT they were.
3) Understanding what is going on in your head right now
Humans are social animals. Our survival depended on our ability to forge relationships with others (Buss, 2019). Hence, our brain evolved to instill mechanisms that would help us keep these relationships. So when a prehistoric bear tried to kidnap your mate, you would enter fight or flight mode which would make you jump into action and do everything to save them. As you heard the cries of your mate, your cortisol would shoot through the roof, adrenaline and norepinephrine would pump into your body which helps you to run faster, fight harder and feel less pain. These chemicals motivate you to take massive action. You might scream at the bear while chucking rocks at his head or run back to the village super fast and call for backup. Were they always successful in warding the bear off? Nope, but they were successful enough to pass this evolutionary advantageous trait to us since our ancestors who did not possess this trait died off. Therefore it would make sense if you have an eerily similar reaction if some random guy in a trench coat tried to kidnap your little brother. Unfortunately, for people going through a breakup, this mechanism gets triggered since a relationship is potentially ending and our brain is freaking the fuck out. This mechanism might make us call them a 100 times, scream at them, make big romantic gestures, hold on to their leg while they are trying to walk away (metaphorically or even LITERALLY). We try reasoning with them, we try everything to get them back to calm our head but it doesn't work. (Will get into why it doesn't work later on). Even if it does work, it does not last long. This fight or flight response persists because we failed to keep our relationship. Our body is riddled with agonizing anxiety all day because those stress chemicals I mentioned earlier are still doing their magic on your system. This may persist, days or even months. This phase won't last forever. You just need to make sure to not do anything stupid, you know like CALLING THEM A 100 TIMES but even if did do something stupid. Don't be too hard on yourself.
4) Be patient
I know hurts. It's horrible. It is going to be like this for a bit but you will get better eventually. People don't take 2 weeks to 'Get over it'. Be patient, trust the process.
5) Cut off all contact, go No contact (For your own healing)
Don't text them, don't call them, don't snap them, don't like their photos, don't do anything to contact them, don't even try to send a pigeon. If they message or call you, let them know straight up that if they want to try the relationship again they can call or text you. Otherwise, tell them not to contact you under any circumstances. No need to be mean, do it politely. "If you ever want to give another try with our relationship, only then contact me. Otherwise refrain from contacting me. I want some space, thank you." Why are we being so cruel?
Love activates all your happy chemicals. Dopamine, serotonin, oxytocin, endorphin (Zeki, 2007). When the person dumps you, they cut you off all these happy chemicals causing massive withdrawal symptoms. Interestingly people going through a drug withdrawal show the exact same symptoms (Fisher, 2017). Why? Because love is the ultimate drug and you are addicted.
Your brain is addicted to your ex. To cure this addiction you have to go cold turkey. Will it be dreadful? YES. Is it necessary? Yes. You might think keeping in contact as friends will cushion the blow. In the long term, it will be more painful to be their friend because you will see them moving on without you. Talking to them is like re-opening a wound over and over again.
This is actually the hardest part since you are literally fighting against your basic human instinct I talked about earlier that prevents the loss of a loved one. Your brain is screaming at you "WE NEED TO GET THEM BACK! CALL THEM, TEXT THEM etc". Once we fear we are losing a loved one our brain will try to do everything to get them back. If a bear was running off with them, then it would have helped but in this case, reaching out to them will further push them back. They want some space from you right now.
This includes stalking them on social media, don't do it. It complicates your healing since you are reopening a wound over and over again. Easier said than done though. If you really struggle with this, maybe try to ween off it slowly. Let yourself see their fb twice a week at first, then twice in two weeks etc. Slowly ween off doing it at all. I suggest unfollowing them at least.
Coincidentally, No Contact is the same move to make if you want to win them back. It is a double-edged sword. Whether you want them back or heal your heart OR BOTH. Your best move is to go No Contact.
6) Using No Contact to get them back
You might be wondering that if you do no contact, they might actually forget about you and move on. WRONG! How many times do you think about water a day? Not a lot. Lets just imagine that your house runs out of water, the whole city runs out of water. All you can think about now is water. You are thirsty, you want to take a shower, you want to cook....the lack of water has forced you to think of it. Its the scarcity effect, we long for things that are scarce more than we long for things that are plenty (Cialdini, 2014). Hence, no contact makes your ex think about you way more than they would have if you kept badgering them. You need to be completely out of the picture for them to miss you. They must feel your void.
You might feel that begging them to come back would work, it won't. They have already made the decision to leave you and prepared for you to react like this. You think you can reason with them to take you back. You can't. Because right now they aren't emotionally neutral enough to hear any logical arguments.
Why can't you convince them? Its because they have made a decision already. Humans want to stay consistent with their decisions due to the consistency principle (Cialdini, 2014). The decision to break up is not made logically, its made emotionally, hence using logic to reason with them is useless.
Hence, you can't change their mind right now. The only person that can change their minds is themselves. You help them do that by going No Contact.
Show yourself that you respect yourself enough to NOT chase after someone who left you. Neediness is unattractive, show your ex that you don't need them. Here are more reasons to not chase them.
- When they broke up with you, they expected you to still be in the sidelines as a friend or something. So they don't have to fear losing you. Well, don't give them what they expect, leave the situation. Vanish out of her life completely. So they start actually fearing that they might lose you. Fear of loss is a great motivation for action in humans since we are loss averse (Kahneman, 2011). This will make it more likely they will want to get back with you.
- You not being in their loop anymore, causes them to get curious about you. After curiosity comes attraction. When their attraction towards you has reached a level, they will contact you.
- They actually start respecting you since they assumed you were going to beg and plead. Respect is essential for attraction.
- Over time, they will forget all the negative things about you and the situation that made them break up with you. Negative memories lose their intensity faster than positive ones. As more time passes, you will look better due to the faded affect bias (Gibbons, 2011)
7) How to actually do "No contact"
When my ex broke up with me I could not believe what was happening. This was the closest thing to hell I have ever experienced. I have been hit hard by life many times. But this punch, it nearly killed me. Nothing could ever prepare me for this. It was absolute agony. I would go to sleep and start dreaming about being together with her. I would wake up and realize the reality of the situation and start bawling like a mad man (thats a positive though, you should cry it out). All my dreams I had with her were all shattered. I didn't know what to do. The life I planned with her is nothing but a sad memory now. I started researching and went down the rabbit hole of "Win your ex back". I found out about the no contact policy and started doing it.
The first seven days were brutal. The only thing I told myself was "Just survive the first 7 days". Every inch of my body wanted to reach out to her. To beg her to come back. I knew it wouldn't work. So through sheer will and determination, I didn't reach out to her. As I explained before, my brain was in fight or flight. I was also suffering from withdrawal symptoms of love. I just told myself, "Survive 7 days". That is all I did. I survived 7 days at a time. Maybe you can only survive 1 day at a time. Do that! Tell yourself that "Okay okay, I will contact them in a month". Then when a month rolls by "Okay, next month I will contact her". Then when the next month rolls by tell yourself "Okay, I will contact her in the next 3 months". The trick is to lie to yourself that you will contact them eventually but you never will. (That includes not contacting them on birthdays, holidays, valentine's day, death of a loved one etc). People that join the '12 steps program', are not told to NEVER drink again. That is putting the goal post way out of your reach. The addicts are instructed to NOT drink one day at a time, then a week, then a month, then a year, and then finally for a lifetime.
Another trick I used was to believe that if I did contact them. I would push them farther back and lose them forever. Which is true, breaking no contact will lower your chances of getting them back.
Another trick I used was the progress meter. For every month I took a piece of A4 size paper and drew 30 squares (Each square represents a day). I hung it on my bedroom wall. After each day was over I would put a tick mark on one of the 30 boxes. The tick mark is meant to signify that I have finished another day while following no contact. Once you complete 7 days, it looks really nice, like you have completed a streak. Keeping your streak can be a huge motivator for not breaking no contact (Clear, 2018). It gives you a sense of accomplishment and keeps you on track, you will think twice before breaking your streak. After you tick marked all 30 days, take yourself out for a date, and treat yourself. Then hang up another A4 size paper and keep repeating the process. One day you will tell yourself, "I really don't care anymore to tick mark a box for not contacting my ex", that's the day you can stop. You will stop when you become completely indifferent. The opposite of love isn't hate, its indifference.
This will no doubt be the hardest thing you have ever done. You are fighting against your basic human instincts (to connect and reunite) that has been instilled into us since the beginning of time.. You are fighting the neurological mechanism that was set in place to KEEP your loved ones. Hence, the difficulty.
Bonus trick to keep doing no contact (Might not be the healthiest way, but it works). Use only if you are really struggling with no contact. You need to get into the devil mindset.
Realize they have stabbed you through the heart. You are in pain because of them. Time for you to strike back. The best way for them to feel the pain and consequences of losing you is to keep NOT contacting them. Put them in a state of doubt about their decision by not reaching out to them. Let them feel the pain. Remember, if you break no contact. You will stop their pain but we don't want that, do we? In the first few months, they will be fine but slowly they will start feeling the hurt. Is this mindset petty? Yes. But it is way better than contacting them and ruining the chances of healing and/or getting them back. Your last words before starting no-contact should be kind, not anything mean. If you insult or demean them, you will come off as immature and petty. Making them less doubtful about their decision.
For true healing, your no-contact needs to come from a healthier place. After a period, abandon this "devil mindset", see your ex with compassionate curiosity and forgive them. The last thing they wanted to do was to hurt you but there was no other way.
8) Why you should reject their offer of friendship
Sometimes the dumper doesn't want to be so cruel so they try to be your friend. To reduce their guilt and reduce their pain of losing you. Don't give them that. Let them feel the pain of losing you. If you want them back or if you want to move on, the best way is to let them go. They need to miss you, to want you again. The dumper has all the power in this breakup, since they are rejecting you. Take back a little of that power by rejecting their offer of friendship. Do you really want to see them dating new people and asking for your advice? You might think that if you are around her she won't move on and she will realize what an amazing person you are and get back with you. WRONG! What ends up happening is they start categorizing you as a friend rather than a romantic interest. Let's avoid that. You need to let them know that if they want to get back into your life. They can only get back as a romantic interest. Nothing less, nothing more.
9) Stop trying to find the "Real" reason for the breakup
You are going through every conversation you had with her. You are analyzing her texts, you are asking your friends "Could she have left because I didn't share my custard with her on our 12th date ?" You feel like you are Sherlock Holmes, figuring out clues that will lead you to the "real" reason. In reality, they don't even know why they broke up with you. They have an idea of why, but the reason is more emotional than logical so they can't give you a really good reason. I get it, you want closure. The only person that can give you closure is you! Think, think hard why they left you. Write it down on a piece of paper and just learn to accept it. General incompatibility? Poor communication? Lack of time spent? Circumstance? Mental health issues? What do YOU think the reason was? What does your heart tell you? Mystery solved. Remember, if you do reach out to them and try to get closure, no matter what they tell you. It will never be enough.
10) Don't blame yourself
We tend to blame ourselves and our imperfections for the breakup. This person didn't just reject you, they rejected you after knowing you inside out. That is why it hurts so much. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with you! Yes, you aren't perfect. You have your flaws. You deserve someone that stays with you regardless of your flaws, not someone who refuses to work on them with you. Sometimes people break up because of the circumstances. It has nothing to do with you. It might just be a bad time and place. All that being said, you deserve someone that makes every excuse to be with you. Not someone who makes every excuse to NOT be with you. Life is hard and complicated, relationships aren't ideal all the time. It's easy to stay in a relationship during the good times, but hard to stay in it in the bad times. The bad times are the times that show you if the other person is worth it or not.
11) Don't idealize your Ex and put them on a pedestal
Drug addicts in withdrawal often highlight only the positives of the drug they were addicted to (Winch, 2018). They conveniently forget how that drug turned their life upside down. People who got dumped do that too. I am not saying your ex turned your life upside down but they weren't perfect. Write down their flaws and things that annoyed you on a piece of paper. Write down what may have attracted you to them but later made you feel like shit. For example, you might have liked the fact they were dominant, but later on it just felt like they were very controlling. When you think about her again, focus on her flaws.
Them dumping you might intensify your feelings towards them. This feeling is not based entirely on love, it's based on adversity. Scientists made a monkey expect treats at a certain time. When they stopped giving them the treat to study its effect on dopamine in their brain. The monkeys thrashed around in fury. Nothing odd about that, but the odd thing was the monkey's brain produced more dopamine when the monkey did NOT get the treat. This extra dopamine meant that the monkey's want for the treat increased when he did not get his treat that he expected. This is called Frustration Attraction (Fisher). We long for things way more when we expect it but don't get it. You expected your ex to be in your life, them not being there anymore made you want them even more. Your love did not increase. This is frustration attraction in play. Don't confuse this with genuine attraction.
12) Don't change your life to avoid pain
Don't avoid the restaurants you used to go to. Don't avoid the activities you used to do together. Yes, when you go to the restaurant you used to go to together might be painful at first. But after a few times, you bring your friends there or even a new date there. Your brain starts creating new memories with that restaurant and the new memories override the old memories and you feel much better. Sure, it was where you and your ex used to have tea but now its where you and your friends spill the tea. You guys used to do yoga together? Try doing it alone or with someone else. Obviously don't resume activities just after the breakup but eventually get to that point.
13) Get rid of the reminders of them
Your ex already occupies your mind a lot. let's not let them haunt you physically too. If they have given you gifts, love letters, old pictures of them etc. We need to remove them. Yes, for the time being at least. Keep them in a box and shove it down a room or place you don't go to. *However these old mementos are very useful to induce crying. I used my ex's love letter to cry my heart out, I read it over and over. Then one day it wasn't really helping me cry, so I decided to get rid of it. Yes, I burned it. It felt pretty awesome and cathartic. So do get rid of these old mementos eventually, no rush. Holding onto vivid reminders of them does not let your wound heal properly. Getting rid of them signals your brain to let go. Its a short term sacrifice for a long term gain. A lot of people report an immediate boost in mood after they purged the physical reminders (Winch, 2018). This also includes their photos on your phone. YES, even the nudes. Let it go.
14) Be compassionate to yourself
Develop a non-judgmental inner voice that is actually kind to you. Instead of beating yourself up with insults, talk to yourself kinder. If you have a thought like "I can't even open a ketchup bottle easily, I am such a dumbass...no wonder she left me", counter this thought with "I am only human and these ketchup bottles are really complex these days, I am not a dumbass.". Respond to the mistakes you make with compassion. Write down all the bad things you say to yourself in a day and look at it. Think about it. Would you ever tell a good friend these things? No. Then don't tell them to yourself.
15) Fill the void with Self Improvement
Now you feel like there is a huge void in your life. Your ex might have been a big part of your life. Fill that void up by adopting a new hobby, learning a new skill, or any passion of yours you wanted to always try but didn't have the time to. Don't fret if you don't have a hobby or a new skill to learn. The journey to finding these things is an awesome adventure on its own. It took me a long while to realize that I really love human psychology and self-improvement books. Read! READ! Increase your knowledge and unlock your full potential. Commit yourself to become a better person. So you don't make the same mistakes you did in your last relationship. Life is about growth but that can't happen without failure. A child doesn't learn how to walk without falling a hundred times first. I will have a recommended book list at the end of the article.
16) Don't "Get busy" to avoid thinking about them
All you are doing is delaying your pain by distracting yourself from thinking about them. Let the thoughts about them come. If you can't cry. Close your eyes and focus on the pain. Be with the body, don't judge the pain. Just notice it. Keep noticing it, till it goes away. That is how you process your pain to go through you and not get buried.
17) Battle the obsession of your ex with mindful meditation
Every waking moment of your day is filled by ruminating about your ex. You will think about them 24/7 for a while. No need to panic. It's totally normal. One thing that can help you do this less is mindful meditation. Mindful meditation is linked to a million other benefits for your physical and mental health, so it's a no brainer (Cho, 2016). You also need to understand that it takes a while for you to get the hang of it. Try using the headspace app's trial feature to learn how to do it.
18) Talk to a professional (therapist)
A break up is a tumultuous time for anyone. Hence seeking professional help isn't the worst idea. When someone breaks up with us, we don't just grieve for our ex. We start grieving for every attachment trauma we ever endured in our lives. Grief is like picking up a paper clip that is connected to other paper clips. You can't grief for your ex alone, you will unconsciously end up grieving about all your attachment trauma. A good therapist can help you through that process.
19) Rely on all your social support systems
Feeling sad? Reach out to friends and family to vent. Sometimes just straight up tell them that you just want to vent and don't want their advice. Your loved ones are here for you to utilize them. But do give them breaks from venting here and there. They are human and they sometimes can get tired of your break up story.
20) Rebuild your identity
When we are in a relationship we tend to merge our identities with our other half. That is why we feel so lost when they leave us. We are so used to having them as our "better" half's that we forget who we were when we never met them in the first place. Maybe you gave up a hobby or activity when you were dating them to have more time with them. Now is the best time to reclaim that part of yourself that you lost when you guys were dating. It is also the best time to figure out who you are and what you truly want. If you always wanted to travel and live in some country for a few months but you couldn't because you were in a committed relationship, now is the perfect opportunity to do so. You aren't tethered by anyone, fly free.
21) Get some physical exercise
Well, the first few months of the breakup I guess its okay if you don't work out at all since you might be too depressed to get out of bed or have any motivation to do anything (I couldn't get up for two months, some other people were fine after a week. So heal in your own time, again there is no timeline to grieve). But eventually, I want you to start exercising regularly to pump your brain with all those feel-good chemicals. 15 to 30 min a day is a good start, hell even just 5 min is great. You can try yoga too if working out isn't your thing. Becoming a bit sexier in the process is a pretty good bonus too.
22) Write letters to them but don't actually send it to them
Write however many letters you want. Write whatever you want to write. Whatever you ever wanted to say to them. Go ahead and say it in the letter. Pour your heart out, leave nothing unsaid. I personally used tape recorders rather than letters. I got too lazy and used the voice recorder on my phone to have a "pretend" one-sided conversation. It felt really good afterward. It cleared my head and gave me a bit of closure. But eventually, burn these letters and delete these recordings by also "Thanking them and forgiving them" in your own words. Every time you burn a letter, thank them and forgive them. You don't need to hold this grudge your whole life, it's not good for you. Forgiving is not for them, its for your own healing. No matter what they did, you have to be able to forgive them eventually. In your own time! There is no time limit. Remember to forgive yourself too for the mistakes you might have made, you are only human after all.
23) Start Journaling
At the end of everyday write or (record your feelings). It helps you process your feelings better. Write about how you feel. Are you feeling sad? Angry? Confused? Putting them down on paper takes a bit of the emotional intensity off you. The first few months you should journal every day but as time goes on, decrease your frequency. After a 3 or 6 month period read your early journal entries and compare them to your most recent journal entries and you will notice how much better you are doing, which will give you a much-needed boost to healing.
24) Start a gratitude journal
Yes, I bet you heard that a million times already. It does increase your happiness quotient (Connor, 2010). Make a habit of listing three things you are grateful for before you go to sleep. When you say these things actually feel it and let the joy of that thing warm you up. It could be as little thing as the dinner you had that day or it could be something really special such as being grateful for your parents.
25) Set ambitious new goals for your life
Is there something you always wanted to do or be? Set your horizons on it and start chasing your new hopes and dreams.
26) Start Dating again
You would eventually want to start dating again. Have fun with your single life. Have some exciting romantic encounters with some girl on vacation. Flirt with that handsome guy at the bar. Have fun, enjoy yourself. Take it slow and be wary of any early red flags. Trust your gut. Maybe you knew your ex was an alcoholic but still went out with him. Don't make the same mistakes you made last time. But if you want to stay single for a while, that is okay too. Do you, there is no right or wrong here. Think of dating as a source of possible romantic interests, it keeps the pressure off you.
27) Antidote to Suffering
In my lowest moments after the breakup. I had symptoms of clinical depression. I couldn't get out of bed. All I would do is sleep. Some days I would lie in my bed awake riddled with agonizing anxiety. To make things worse my obsessive-compulsive disorder was acting up too. I simply did not have the energy to manage it anymore as I used to. I gave up my will to live a couple of times. I stopped eating and drinking. I just couldn't take it anymore. I wanted to die but I didn't have the energy to commit suicide so I thought it be best to die starving in my bed. Waking up was a pain, going through my days were a pain. One morning a thought occurred to me that gave me the will to live again "I have to save others from this pain and suffering, I can't do that if I am dead. I am going to become the world's greatest therapist and help people with OCD and breakups, I have to live!" From that moment on, I started getting up and eating and drinking water more regularly and then going back to bed to sleep all day. Slowly but surely, I would sleep less on the day and get more things done. I didn't get this thought because I am some Mother Theresa or anything. It was for selfish reasons. I needed a reason to live. I needed meaning for my suffering to survive and withstand it.
The antidote to suffering is finding meaning in it. This is not my wisdom. Its what I learned reading Viktor Frankl's Man's search for meaning. "A man who has a why can endure any how", this famous quote of Nietzsche gives more support to this idea. The meaning of your life must be more specific though. You have to have a meaning and purpose that nobody else other than you can fulfill. You can't just say "I want to help people", sure that is noble but it's not specific enough. You want to help people? But how? There are millions of ways to help people, what's the way you would like to help them? Which way would let you help them the best? My purpose and meaning are helping people with a very specific kind of OCD. Its called Purely obsessional OCD, this ocd has no physical compulsions, only mental ones. A lot of therapists and psychiatrists don't know how to address it properly. I want to change that. I also want to help people going through breakups. Especially dumpees who are anxiously attached. Breakups are extra hard on these types of people. To achieve this goal I am happy to suffer. I will keep on going regardless of how bad and hard it gets.
Find the meaning of your suffering. Do you want to create amazing art that will make people think deeply? Do you want to direct a documentary exposing a problem? Do you just want to make old people at the nursery home smile more? It can be whatever you want it to. Ask yourself, if you would gladly suffer for this purpose? If the answer is 'No', don't pursue that. The agony you are experiencing currently will be more bearable after you start taking steps to find and pursue your meaning.
However, you might be in the team who thinks everything is inherently meaningless. Nothing really matters. There is no meaning in life. There is no meaning in our suffering. All the pain and agony our ancestors went through to build the foundation of this world is meaningless. All the people that suffered without surrendering their morals in the holocaust were wasting their time. All the people that refused to turn in their friends in the face of brutal torture in the gulags made a stupid choice.
All the people that died for a better world wasted their lives because it doesn't mean anything. How about all the people that sacrificed their happiness for the good of humanity? Were their lives meaningless? The only reason we still exist is because of the sacrifices that were made by our ancestors through blood, sweat, and a lot of tears. We are only standing because we are standing on their corpses. Billions of billions of corpses. Is it all meaningless? Are their lives and deaths meaningless? NO! They weren't. It is us, the living that must give their suffering meaning! After we are dead, our future generations will look back to us for their meaning. Therefore I think it is our responsibility to pursue meaning to respect our ancestor's sacrifice. If we don't, it will deem all their suffering meaningless!
A prisoner in Auschwitz was told to get into the gas chamber. At that time it was just a rumor that people died in the showers. Most of the victims didn't know or didn't want to believe that it was true. But somehow this man knew what fate awaited him. He smuggled a piece of paper and wrote "Shema Yisrael" (it's traditional for Jewish people to say this as last words) and stuffed it in his shirt, then he undressed. He walked into the chamber upright and with dignity and before the gas was released his last words were also probably "Shema Yisrael". In this context Shema means "listen", Yisrael means "people (or congregation of Israel)". Its a prayer in Judaism. It's traditional for Jewish people to say this as their last words. But why did this man have to write it in a piece of paper? Couldn't he just have said "Shema Yisrael" before he died? Why did he need to go through all the trouble to smuggle a piece of paper and use his own blood to write this?
He was trying to send a message to humanity as a whole. He was trying to talk to the people that survived. He was trying to talk to us. He was trying to say "Listen people, do you see me? I have been through a lot here. But it didn't ruin my faith in god. Don't lose faith. Don't lose hope. Suffer with dignity." This is how I interpreted it to fit my own narrative. You can do the same. Every time I reach a very low spot mental health-wise and I don't think I can take it anymore. I say to myself, "Shema Yisrael" and remember this man and his message. After I say these words I immediately feel better. It doesn't lower my pain, it increases my ability to withstand it. He found meaning in his death by sending this message to us. I took his message and used it to handle my pain. I am writing this article because of my own pain, if this article helps you. You give meaning to all the pain I been through. Thank you for giving my pain meaning. I hope this breakup teaches you things that you can pass on to someone else so they give meaning to your suffering.
Loved this post? Give my podcast a listen. I go into more depth, share more advice and interesting personal stories. (Its FREE!)
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7zJEZ8VG2Bdz2gDfRY7x61
Anchor: https://anchor.fm/harry-house3/episodes/Brokenheartclub-Episode-1-How-to-recover-from-your-breakup-Everything-you-need-to-know-e5bglu
Itunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/broken-heart-club-podcast/id1479810240
Youtube: https://youtu.be/BAm58NkS1Ck
Inspiration for this paragraph
- Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankl
- The Gulag of Archipelago by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
- The Story Of Civilization by Will and Ariel Durant
- Attack on Titans season 3 episode 16 "Erwin's Speech"
*I will also make individual posts about all the points I made here in the coming weeks.
Book Recommendations:
- How to Win friends and Influence people by Dale Carnegie
- Atomic Habits by James Clear
- Can't Hurt Me by David Goggins
- 12 Rules for life by Jordan Peterson
- Subtle art of not giving a fuck by Mark Manson
Sources:
Buss, D. M. (2019). Evolutionary psychology: the new science of the mind. New York: Routledge.Cho, J. (2016, July 14).
6 Scientifically Proven Benefits Of Mindfulness And Meditation. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeenacho/2016/07/14/10-scientifically-proven-benefits-of-mindfulness-and-meditation/#664308da63ce
Cialdini, R. B. (2014). Influence: science and practice. Harlow, Essex: Pearson.
Clear, J. (2018). Atomic habits: tiny changes. New York: Avery, an imprint of Penguin Random House.
OConnor, R. (2010). Happy at last. New York: St. Martins Griffin.
Winch, G. (2018). How to Fix a Broken Heart. Simon & Schuster.
Zeki, S.(2007), The neurobiology of love, FEBS Letters, 581, doi: 10.1016/j.febslet.2007.03.094
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Gibbons, J. A., Lee, S. A. and Walker, W. R. (2011), The fading affect bias begins within 12 hours and persists for 3 months. Appl. Cognit. Psychol., 25: 663-672. doi:10.1002/acp.1738
Fisher, H. E. (2017). Anatomy of love.New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
submitted by CognitivelyPositive to BreakUps [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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Betting odds of 4/1 would equate to 5.0 in decimal terms, 5/1 would be 6.0, and so forth. See the chart below for a breakdown of betting odds in both fractional and decimal format, showing forecasted returns to £5 level stakes for the key prices in a market. Odds taken July 18th. Jon Rahm Has Strangehold on Memorial Tournament. What a difference an hour makes – it looked like Jon Rahm might have an uphill climb to emerge victorious on Sunday more than halfway through the round on Saturday but then he turned on the jets while everyone else around him crumbled down the stretch. Instantly convert betting odds in any format. Supports decimals, fractions, American odds. The tool will also tell you how likely the event is to occur to help you know what your chances of winning are. Plus when you're away from a computer or mobile, learn how to manually convert the odds formats with simple maths. What betting odds merely do is present how likely the event is to happen. Bookies most frequently in the UK do this as a fraction, i.e. 4/7, whilst the vast majority also offer the ability to view them as decimals. Again, let us talk you through them. All will become clear. Using Betting Odds to Calculate Probability In this example, on a $1.00 bet on Chicago you would get back a total of $5.00 and on a $2.00 bet on the colts, you’d realize $3.00. As you can see, regardless of the format of the betting lines, the payout is the same. Odds are Skewed. Betting odds can be given in various ways. The important thing to understand is they’re not “real.”

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