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College Football Bowl Predictions 2014-2015: Early Las Vegas Betting Odds And Picks Against The Spread

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2020 NFL Draft Review FINAL - AFC West + links to all divisions - Analysis and Career Predictions for Each Team's Draft Class

The AFC West is the final division in the 2020 NFL Draft review series. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series with the NFC West, AFC South, NFC South, AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is the next installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC West.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and cornerback. They wasted no time addressing those positions and ended up taking two corners and two-and-a-half wide receivers total. I think they aced this draft, but not for the reasons you might think.
Las Vegas opted for speed over production by selecting Henry Ruggs III (3) as the first receiver off the board. Ruggs played a supporting role alongside lead dog Jerry Jeudy at Alabama, but ran a 4.28 at the combine and aced the draft process. His speed popped on film, as he routinely cribbed slants and ran by people in the SEC. Ruggs was lauded for his competitiveness and edge, particularly as a blocker, which directly conflicts with my notes of his film. I noted missed blocks, him getting tossed, and labeled him as “weak.” Perhaps I watched the wrong games or my standards are too high.
As far as receiving the football, Ruggs was fantastic, making highlight diving catches and using his hops to climb the later and show off his above-average hands. There are two major unknowns with Ruggs - how he will deal with being the No. 1 option, and how he will develop as a route-runner. Unfortunately, I do not believe he will live up to his physical attributes. Derek Carr ranked 25th in Air Yards Per Completion last year, and while accurate, has never excelled at utilizing a deep threat. I also have a hard time endorsing a player who was not the number one receiver on his own team to be the number one receiver in a loaded draft class.
At No. 19, the Raiders took Damon Arnette (3), which was a surprise to some. I had Arnette going in the first round in my first mock draft of the year and liked his film more than most. His skillset is that of a quality starting corner, despite unorthodox technique and tendencies. Arnette’s play was up-and-down at Ohio State, in part due to being thrown at so much. He showed weird stances and punches from all different angles and body alignments in press coverage, but generally got the job done.
At the NFL level, if unique individual technique is effective, coaches don’t care. Arnette is more comfortable in press than off and will give up the inside. Most importantly, he can get his head around defending vertical routes in man. He was competitive and alert on film, flying down in run support and showing the necessary swagger and short memory needed from a pro corner. He’s going to get beat, but I like his transition to the league as someone who’s been picked on a bit but kept getting better.
At No. 80, the Raiders took one of my favorite players in the draft in Lynn Bowden Jr (4). Lynn Bowden Jr. played quarterback and receiver at Kentucky and is most known for throwing a punch in a pre-game scuffle before the Belk Bowl. Bowden’s film is that of a grown man with an edge. His receiver film shows nothing in terms of advanced route-running, but his speed absolutely plays and his hands are good enough. His quarterback and returner film shows joystick moves in the open field and elusiveness that rivals Lamb and Shenault. I don’t know if he’s a pro wide receiver (neither do the Raiders), but I’ve seen too many converted quarterbacks have success to bet against his natural football traits. I expect Jon Gruden to use him all over the field and for him to be one of the most explosive swiss army-knife weapons of this generation.
📷
With the very next pick, the Raiders again took one of my favorite players in Bryan Edwards (4) of South Carolina. Edwards was the No. 15 overall player on my board so I obviously loved this pick. Aside from injury concerns and a few miscommunication issues working the boundary with his quarterback, Edwards’ film was outstanding. He’s technically sound with strong hands, tremendous contact balance, evidence of beating press, and great concentration skills. As a physical run-after-catch threat, he’s dynamic and strong. He is the prototype big-bodied NFL receiver in terms of traits, plucking the ball and transitioning as a runner smoothly. I predict he’ll be better than Ruggs. He just needs to get and stay healthy.
I think Tanner Muse (2) can be a special-teamer (tripping up J.K. Dobbins was a gigantic play in the National Semifinal), and John Simpson (3) was a steal. I love mauler guards who fall due to a lack of quickness. Simpson is physical and sometimes dominant in the run game. His stance gives away pass or run, but he can be coached and work on his body to develop into a starting guard.
The Raiders took yet another one of “my guys” in Amik Robertson (4) at pick No. 139. I had Robertson ranked 75th overall and featured him in this article. Robertson is tiny and his film isn’t without flaws, but I am always a proponent of taking players whose main knock is lack of size. I think Robertson will struggle with the brute size and strength of NFL football, and I actually don’t think he’s that fast (didn’t run a 40). But as far as being a pure football player and having coverage instincts and ball skills, Robertson is unbelievable.
Robertson plays big, talks a lot, and backs it up. He jacked up the 6-6 Collin Johnson at the line of scrimmage and almost mossed No. 16 on Texas. He’s able to match everything, has a smooth pedal, and gives up almost no separation in man. Slight jersey tug but disciplined hands play in the league. His production at the college level was unreal - 14 interceptions, 2 blocked kicks, 3 defensive touchdowns, and an onside kick return for a touchdown. I worry about his tackling, but I project him to be one of the best slot cover men in the league.
The Raiders chose to stick with Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, despite having enough draft ammo to move around and take one of the quarterbacks. I loved what they did with most of their picks. Carr now has more weapons and zero excuses. This is a huge year for him.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers came into the draft with primary needs at quarterback and inside linebacker. They addressed those needs in the first round, selecting the No. 3 and No. 8 players on my board.
The madmen did it. They took Justin Herbert (4) at 6. After being inundated with negative Justin Herbert analysis, I went back for a second look at the former Oregon Duck. In terms of college performance, Herbert’s film is reminiscent of recent busts, including Mitchell Trubisky. He lacks ideal anticipation, inexplicably misses some throws, and wasn’t always trusted by his coaching staff. It is also fair to wonder about his transition, coming from a screen-heavy, spread system at Oregon.
However, evaluating NFL prospects is not just about college performance - it’s about projecting traits. Scouting quarterbacks is difficult, and there’s a reason so many teams miss. A lot of times teams fall in love with physical traits such as arm talent and are burned because the player struggles with the complexities, speed, and decision-making difficulty of the NFL game. I believe a critical look at Herbert’s film through the lens of traits-based scouting gets him to potential franchise quarterback level worthy of a high pick. Like with all prospects, his ultimate NFL fate will come down to a lot of surrounding and unknown factors such as situation, coaching, and intangibles. I will pick my No. 3 overall prospect to succeed. His traits are that of a franchise quarterback and his intelligence and athleticism will help his transition.
Arm talent, throwing on the run, short-level accuracy, ball handling, and mobility make Justin Herbert the complete package in terms of traits. He poorly placed just one throw under five yards in the games I watched. He has good footwork, touch, and excels with play-action. The translatable trait that makes me confident is his ability to look like the best player on the field in the face of pressure. Herbert can move around and deliver strikes on the run or simply use his legs as a weapon. He also showed the ability to go through full-field "rainbow" reads. Players with his running ability can afford to not be the most accurate passers in the world. He showed off his rushing skills in the Rose Bowl win against Wisconsin.
I understand the negatives, but with good coaching, I think Herbert can develop into a franchise quarterback as a mix between Josh Allen and Cam Newton.
📷
After selecting their quarterback at 6, the Chargers traded up for the best inside linebacker in the draft in Kenneth Murray (5). Murray had a productive and storied career at Oklahoma, displaying all the traits of a great pro off-ball linebacker for the Sooners. His speed and instincts make him a sideline to sideline threat, and he has the strength on contact of a thumper. His tackling technique is terrific, pointing to his ability to be coachable. He’s a little out of control at times, but he’s better than Devin White. The move up was worth it.
The Chargers want to bring Justin Herbert along slowly, and will look to make the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as the starter. The surrounding talent is enough to take them there. With young stud defenders at all three levels, the Bolts just need to build an offensive line and add weaponry for Herbert to compete with the Chiefs in a few years.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos came into the draft with a clear plan - get Drew Lock some weapons. To say they achieved their goal would be an understatement. Their haul included my No. 7 overall player and my No. 1 tight end.
Jerry Jeudy (5) suffered from some prospect fatigue as analysts scrambled to poke holes in his game. While most of his success did come from the slot at Alabama, it’s not like his traits don’t translate to the outside. In Denver, Jeudy can man the slot primarily, whereas if he went to the Jets he may have had to learn an entirely new position. The only question about Jeudy is whether or not Drew Lock is good enough to allow him to reach his extremely high ceiling.
Jeudy has amazing quickness, length, and top-notch speed, but is known most for being an outstanding route-runner. He is the best route-runner I have ever scouted in college. He understands the nuances of changing speeds, is quick with a plan, and shows an uncommon ability to separate that surely translates to the pro game. He’ll be a star if Drew Lock proves to be competent.
📷
With their second pick, the Broncos doubled down on wide receiver with K.J. Hamler (2) of Penn State. Hamler is the prototypical deep threat and an excellent complement to Jeudy and Courtland Sutton in theory. He might be too small for the NFL, but his college film shows route-running ability on slot fades and out routes that rival most pros. His main weaknesses are due to his lack of size, as he struggles in contested catch situations and is dominated by strength in terms of ball security.
Hamler made a couple of tremendous sliding catches but does not display much in terms of hands an almost exclusively body-catcher. It’s a common misconception that receivers are never taught to catch with their body as coaches will teach it in certain situations. Hamler can succeed in the NFL, but there are too many mouths to feed in Denver for him to be more than a situational deep threat.
Michael Ojemudia (2) has the athletic profile and size to be a starter, but his film doesn’t show the natural football traits of a pro. He isn’t physical enough and doesn’t show great awareness in zone, letting receivers get behind him.
Lloyd Cushenberry (2) was one of the most overrated prospects in the draft. He’s a classic case of a decorated collegiate who gets overdrafted due to great character. He was beaten badly by the Texas nose tackle and generally lacks balance.
McTelvin Agim (1) was overdrafted as a former five-star recruit who didn’t dominate in the SEC. He has the size and tools to be a rotational defensive lineman, but plays too high and bends at the waist, losing leverage and balance too easily.
Denver's best pick after Jeudy was Albert Okwuegbunam (3). His size/hands mix is rare and his physical ability is special. After last season I thought he’d be a high pick, but he never seemed to put it together. He’s an instant red-zone threat as a project with huge upside.
The draft community is giving high praise to this Broncos class. I think they nailed their first pick but wasn’t overly impressed with the rest of the haul. Denver’s defense is loaded with talented veterans and a returning Bradley Chubb, so Drew Lock’s progress will be an intriguing storyline in the AFC Wild Card race.

Kansas City Chiefs

Congratulations to the Chiefs and their fans on winning the Super Bowl. The World Champs came into the draft without any pressing needs and selected three extremely talented young prospects with their first three picks.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4) is a perfect fit in Andy Reid’s offense. My No. 2 running back, CEH reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew. His lack of height is a non-issue, if not a positive, as he gives defenders a small target on his way to eluding tacklers and making guys miss. He's short but sturdy. His film against Alabama was inspiring, breaking tackles and moving piles against defenders twice his size. His best trait is his ability as a receiver, showing advanced route-running skills and soft hands. He’s competitive, fiery, and tough.
While he didn’t quite excel against the Georgia pros, he’s going to have so much space with Patrick Mahomes it’s scary. His 4.6 40 shows a lack of ideal long speed, but his ten-yard split was among the best for running backs at the combine. Amazing fit, PPR fantasy points everywhere.
📷
Willie Gay Jr. (3) has very inconsistent film and character red flags. Andy Reid took a chance on Marcus Peters years ago, who has had a very good pro career. The Chiefs culture should keep Gay on the right track. His film in 2018 was better than 2019, as he had more splash plays and tackled better. In 2019, some of his film showed poor angles and undisciplined missed fits. His speed plays and if he puts in any work at all his floor is a talented special teamer. I think Reid gets the most out of him and he starts at linebacker as a rookie. The burst and pop when he hits people is impressive.
Lucas Niang (3) has a very ugly body, but I liked his film a lot. He has a small lower half and is fat up top, which teams usually don’t like. He can be effective and quick, and has functional strength and movement skills despite his odd shape. I had him at No. 39 on my big board and project him to be a starting right tackle whenever the Chiefs need one. Solid pick.
The Chiefs have the best player in the NFL and a good enough defense. They should be favored to win it all again. The main takeaway from this class is that Andy Reid running backs are fantasy gold and he just got one that fits his scheme perfectly.
That wraps up the 2020 draft review series. Thank you so much for reading. On to 2021!
AFC West article with gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-west/737495
NFC West: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-west/737289
AFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-south/736898
NFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-south/736460
AFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932
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(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!

(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!
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FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info

FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
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The MAC'S consensus groups span the nation, today our NCAAB Red Alert CBB Picks make up our card. The RedAlertWagers.com National Consensus groups have been tapping sources, vetting information, and we are getting ready for March Madness.

(FEB 25) MAC GOES 4-0 LAST NIGHT! - TONIGHT'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7!

Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure Tonight!

Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
TONIGHT OUR NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY (FEB 25) - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 goes off at 7:00 EST - Xavier already has 10 losses - this may be a problem for the Musketeers as they attempt to catch the attention of the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Tonight's Big East action will be a important game for Xavier, but Depaul has been waiting to get vengeance after a 59-67 loss to Xavier a few weeks ago. The Depaul Blue Demons (14-13, 2-12 Big East) snuck by Georgetown with the x-factor being Charlie Moore, 20 points & 7 assists. Romeo Weems added 19 points. Paul Reed is coming off a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds + 3 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks, and tonight he will be getting his 17th double-double! Tip off starts at 7:00 - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks!
Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY on the Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 Big East conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball Predictions.
THE MAC HAS HIS RED ALERT PLAY - 7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6
Southeastern prime time game - A Big 10 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats!
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's RED ALERT CBB & NBA Picks are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass! CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (8:00 Drake +7 vs Loyola Chicago -7) NBA RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (10:05 New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers -7.5) CBB MAJOR MOVE ALERT (FEB 25) - (7:00 Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7)
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!

DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS

  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (La Salle +11)
  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (Wyoming +8.5)
  • NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 25) - (Portland Trail Blazers +7.5)
*FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 25) - (NBA - Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 X CBB Wyoming +8.5)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE EASY MONEY HONDA CLASSIC PICK (FEB 27) - (Rickie Fowler +1200) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (NORMA DUMONT +195) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (TOM BREESE -120)
submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsReport [link] [comments]

(FEB 22) - RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 LAST NIGHT + PATREON MEMBERS GET OUR CBB HUSH MONEY TONIGHT!

(FEB 22) - RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 LAST NIGHT + PATREON MEMBERS GET OUR CBB HUSH MONEY TONIGHT!

RedAlertWagers.com

Daily Free MAC ATTACK Plays Below!

Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Become a Member - Join The Patreon - $25 Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS! Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)
Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks
MAC Media: The Reddit Sports Report The Red Alert Report - Fury vs Wilder 2

(FEB 22) TONIGHT'S NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - 10:00 UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8

Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure Tonight!
Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
TONIGHT OUR NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 22) - UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8 goes off at 10:00 EST - The 13 - 15 Aggies are 8 point underdogs against the 17 - 9 Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos, our Big West interlocutors have graded this game and the Red Alert Wagers Consensus is in. The Aggies are holding 2nd place in the conference @ 7-5 but a 13 - 15 overall record and are 17 - 9 ATS. The Gauchos are hosting the Aggies at the Thunderdome tip off at 10:00 PM EST. Cal Santa Barbara are tied for 3rd with Cal State North Ridge & Hawaii all tied all with 5-5 conference records. Public action is on UC Davis and 41% of the money is coming in on the Gauchos - Join the Patreon to get on the MAC'S Special Release Action - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks!
Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY on the UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8 Big West conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball Predictions.
THE MAC HAS HIS RED ALERT PLAY - 6:00 - LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1 - A Big 5 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats!
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's RED ALERT CBB Picks are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass!
7:00 High Point +7 vs Longwood -7 A low key game with a small audience, MAC has been calling these out of mind plays like a sports gambling mentalist. PLAY: 3 UNITS
*6:00 - LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1 PLAY: 5 UNITS
10:00 EST Santa Clara +5 vs Pacific -5 PLAY: 3 UNITS
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!
THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 YESTERDAY AND ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - TONIGHT'S RED ALERT - High Point +7 vs Longwood -7 (A low key game + a small audience = CASH $)
\*Premium Plays*\**
NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (High Point +7 vs Longwood -7) NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (Santa Clara +5 vs Pacific -5) NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1) CBB HUSH MONEY (FEB 22) - (UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8)

DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS

NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 22) - (OREGON +4.5) NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 22) - (GONZAGA -5) NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 22) - (DALLAS MAVERICKS -1)
**FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 22) - (NBA - DALLAS MAVERICKS -1 X CBB - GONZAGA -5)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE EASY MONEY BOXING PICK (FEB 22) - (TYSON FURY -105) - Red Alert Report Available (HERE) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+26 (FEB 22) - (PAUL FELDER +115) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+26 (FEB 22) - (EMIL MEEK +195)
More Free Betting Info & Advice available on the RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Blog - RedAlertWagers.com

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!

(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!
(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!
https://preview.redd.it/qeb9l9tcnf841.jpg?width=581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13e9c5c96373db1c86266e592f8346a7c18fa14d
Website: RedAlertWagers.com
Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)
Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS!!
Follow The MAC on Social Media:
Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers
Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers
Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks
30 years of insight, experience & bankroll management is bringing another profitable week for The Mac!! Early Info Plays, NFL Major Move Alerts, & CBB Hush Money Plays, are the reason that there are no better options out there for betting against the spread!!
THE MAC put his money where his mouth is all week and The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure!! Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country.
There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! Tonight RedAlertWagers.com and The MAC have a BIRMINGHAM BOWL NCAAF MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY - (BOSTON COLLEGE vs CINCINNATI U) + A NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (JAN 02) - (RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5) as well as a Full Red Alert Card of CFB, CBB, & NBA Expert Sports Picks!
When you follow The MAC, your'e in good hands, Red Alert Expert Basketball Picks have been atomic all year. Today, Mac McGuillaman has plenty of hoops games to choose from and spotted a gem of a game between TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5. The Mac is releasing this as a CBB Back Room Info Play for RedAlertWagers.com clients, The 8-5 Trojans are hosting the 7-6 Bobcats. The Trojans as a slight favorite are expected to keep this game close, Texas St. will be relying on their Guard, Nijal Pearson, to have a break out game while the Spartans put the pressure on with their 2 top players - Markquis Nowell, Ruot Monyyong. The MAC will be on the right side of this game because making these calls is just what The Mac does. The MAC'S Top Rated CBB predictions, Red Alert Plays, & OUR EXCLUSIVE COLLEGE BASKETBALL CALLS get it done, and that's just what it is.
The MAC'S Hush Money Action on tonight's College Basketball game between RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5 will be starting @ 7:00, Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Bears, Gaels, Bulldogs, and Huskies has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops hush money action. Last Night the RedAlertWagers.com Team's Hush Money Play on CONNECTICUT +2.5 missed, final score 51-67, a dud that are few and far between this college basketball season. We pride our action by bringing the results that has the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball picks against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
We will be getting it in the right way tonight with some BIRMINGHAM BOWL ACTION - (BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 vs CINCINNATI U -7.5 + TENNESSEE -2.5 vs INDIANA +2.5), The MAC is moving heavy with a Major Move Alert Eagles-Bearcats side/total pick, kickoff @ 3:00. THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS -2.5 vs INDIANA HOOSIERS +2.5 at 7:00 is a Top Rated Late Info Play and it goes without saying that we have been cleaning up all week! The MAC doesn't go where the game is, he puts his nuts right on the line to bring you where the money is, and tonight will be no different! This is the type of action that makes THE MAC's Top Rated & Premium College Basketball Plays like no others!
THE MAC is not only loaded with NCAA gifts from the odds-makers this year, and make no mistake, he very much is anticipating the outcome of his Late Info & Hoops Hush Money Play, but The Mac has his attention focused on The NFL Playoffs.
With the regular season coming to a end, and the big boy games about to begin, the NFL playoffs are when The MAC brings the big guns out, so expect that The MAC will be locked & loaded with expert NFL playoff predictions and his annual Vegas Tournament approved 2020 NFL Playoff Bracket Picks!
MAC'S Printable Pre-Filled Playoff Bracket for the 2020 NFL Superbowl 54 Playoffs are available for download. Looking to rip down a office pool with a pre-made bracket by professional sports handicapper Roland "THE ROARIN MAC" McGuillaman - The Internets Most Venerable Sports Service!
RedAlertWagers.com & Roland "The Roarin MAC' McGuillaman 2020 Playoff/Superbowl 54 Prediction Printable/Downloadable Bracket - (Superbowl 54 LIV Bracket)
The Mac has been entering his expert NFL handicapping picks & predictions in pick-em tournaments for over the course of his career and since 1997 he has offered his tournament bracket picks to the public. The RedAlertWagers.com team has made this information available on the internet making The MAC one of the most venerable sources for expert football betting information, against the spread NFL predictions, and NFL playoff picks, lionizing RedAlertWagers.com & Roland McGuillaman in and around sportsbooks and casinos
The MAC will be collecting a envelope from his local bookie this week -
(JAN 02) UPP RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PLAYS
Weekly Bankroll:
(DEC 30 - JAN 05) - DAY 4 BANKROLL TOTAL: THURSDAY @ +57 UNITS
(JAN 02) - TODAY'S BANKROLL RISK: 78 UNITS
LAST WEEKS RESULTS:
(DEC 23 - 29) - 7 DAY BANKROLL: +27 UNITS
***PATREON TOP RATED EXCLUSIVE PLAYS**\*
  • NFL EARLY INFO PLAY (JAN 04) - (TENNESSEE TITANS vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O/U 44)
  • NFL MAJOR MOVE ALERT (JAN 05) - (MINNESOTA VIKINGS +8 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -8)
  • NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (JAN 02) - (RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5)
  • NCAAB LATE INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (UAB +2.5 vs CHARLOTTE U -2.5)
  • NCAAB EARLY INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (SE MISSOURI ST +10 vs AUSTIN PEAY -10)
  • NCAAB BACK ROOM INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5)
  • NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5)
  • NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (SAINT MARYS CA -3.5 vs SAN FRANCISCO +3.5)
  • NCAAF MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (BOSTON COLLEGE vs CINCINNATI U O/U 54.5)
  • NCAAF BACK ROOM INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 vs CINCINNATI U +7.5)
  • NCAAF LATE INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (TENNESSEE -2.5 vs INDIANA +2.5)
**PATREON PREMIUM PLAYS*\*
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (SAINT LOUIS +3 vs DUQUESNE -3)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (FORDHAM +19.5 vs VA COMMONWEALTH -19.5)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (UTEP -1 vs FLORIDA INTL +1)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (ST. JOSEPHS +13 vs RICHMOND -13)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (TOWSON +6.5 vs COLL OF CHARLESTON -6.5)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (MONTANA STATE +8.5 vs NO. COLORADO -8.5)
  • NCAAF RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 03) - (OHIO -8 vs NEVADA +8)
  • NBA RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (UTAH JAZZ -3.5 vs CHICAGO BULLS +3.5)
  • NHL RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (ANAHEIM DUCKS vs ARIZONA COYOTES)
  • NFL RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 04) - (TENNESSEE TITANS +4.5 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS)
  • NFL RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 05) - (SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +2.5)
*DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS\*
NFL MAC ATTACK PLAYOFF PICK (JAN 04) - (BUFFALO BILLS +3)
NCAAF MAC ATTACK PICK (JAN 02) - (TENNESSEE vs INDIANA OVER 54.5)
NCAAB MAC ATTACK PLAY (JAN 02) - (NC WILMINGTON +3.5)
*FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS\*
FUN PLAY 2 TEAM NBA PARLAY!! (JAN 02) - (OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +2 X UTAH JAZZ vs CHICAGO BULLS OVER 210.5)
FUN PLAY 2 TEAM NFL 7 POINT TEASER!! (JAN 04-05) - (BUFFALO BILLS +10 x SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +4.5)
Top Rated Sports Betting and Online Gambling Information courtesy of Roland Roarin Mac McGuillaman​
THE MAC recommends XBet.ag to place your bets as well as MyBookie.ag you will find the best odds on everything from sports to current affairs.
#SportsBetting #SportsGambling #BettingTips #NFLPlayoffs
#NFLPicks #CBBPicks #Freepicks #Freeplays #ATSTips #ExpertNFLPicks #ExpertCBBPicks #SportsAdvisors #ProfessionalSportsGambling
submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

30 years of insight, experience & bankroll management is bringing another profitable week for The Mac!

Daily Free MAC ATTACK Plays Below!
Website: RedAlertWagers.comContact: [email protected] Become a Member - Join The Patreon - $7
Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS!! **2020 Playoff/Superbowl 54** Prediction Printable/Downloadable Bracket - (Superbowl 54 LIV Bracket) Follow The MAC on Social Media:
Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers
Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers
Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks
MAC Media: The Reddit Sports ReportThe Red Alert Report The MAC'S Instant Access Plays:1 Day Only Access - RED PASS: $14.99Pay By Phone: Call The Red Line & Follow Automated Instructions (Payments Processed via © Stripe)
30 years of insight, experience & bankroll management is bringing another profitable week for The Mac!! Early Info Plays, NFL Major Move Alerts, & CBB Hush Money Plays, are the reason that there are no better options out there for betting against the spread!! THE MAC put his money where his mouth is all week and The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure!! Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! Tonight RedAlertWagers.com and The MAC have 2 NFL EARLY INFO PLAYS - (MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7 vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7) + (TENNESSEE TITANS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS O/U 47) as well as a Full Red Alert Card of NFL, CBB, & NBA Expert Sports Picks! The MAC is poised to get it done the way it's supposed to be, his NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (PEPPERDINE -2.5 vs SAN DIEGO +2.5) will be a classic example of why they dub Roland MAC McGuillaman the Pay Master of Vegas! Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Pirates, Gaels, Bulldogs, & Huskies has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game in the public eye that will be producing the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos! When you follow The MAC, your'e in good hands, Red Alert Expert Basketball Plays have been atomic all year. Today, Mac McGuillaman has plenty of hoops games to choose from, NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT - (UMKC +15.5 vs NEW MEXICO STATE -15.5) NCAAB BACK ROOM INFO PLAY - (ARIZONA STATE +10 vs OREGON -10) NCAAB LATE INFO PLAY - (UNLV -7 vs WYOMING +7) Tonight RedAlertWagers.com has a full spread of winners. The MAC will ripping down a NBA LATE INFO PLAY (JAN 11) - (CHICAGO BULLS +4 vs DETROIT PISTONS -4)!! Our Los Angeles Consensus Division has confirmed the info that had RedAlertWagers.com on the right side of these NFL Playoff games + The MAC has been on fire in the NHL, calling the Red Wings victory last night like a savage, making these calls is just what The Mac does. The MAC'S Top Rated Basketball predictions, Red Alert Plays, & OUR EXCLUSIVE COLLEGE BASKETBALL CALLS get it done, and that's just what it is. MAC is moving heavy on his NCAAB LATE INFO PLAY - (UNLV -7 vs WYOMING +7) match-up tonight. The Runnin Rebels will be matched up against the Wyoming Cowboys, our Mid West interlocutor has made us privy to the type of info that makes this game a solid investment. The MAC is moving early units with a NFL EARLY INFO PLAY (JAN 11) - (MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7 vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7), it goes without saying that we have been cleaning up all NFL Season! The MAC doesn't go where the game is, he puts his nuts right on the line to bring you where the money is, and tonight will be no different! This is the type of action that makes THE MAC's Top Rated & Premium Sports Picks like no others! THE MAC is not only loaded with NCAA gifts from the odds-makers this year, and make no mistake, he very much is anticipating the outcome of his Back Room Info & Hoops Hush Money Play, but The Mac has his attention focused on The NFL Playoffs. With the regular season coming to a end, and the big boy games about to begin, the NFL playoffs are when The MAC brings the big guns out, so expect that The MAC will be locked & loaded with expert NFL playoff predictions and his annual Vegas Tournament approved 2020 NFL Playoff Bracket Picks! MAC'S Printable Pre-Filled Playoff Bracket for the 2020 NFL Superbowl 54 Playoffs are available for download. Looking to rip down a office pool with a pre-made bracket by professional sports handicapper Roland "THE ROARIN MAC" McGuillaman - The Internets Most Venerable Sports Service! RedAlertWagers.com & Roland "The Roarin MAC' McGuillaman 2020 Playoff/Superbowl 54 Prediction Printable/Downloadable Bracket - (Superbowl 54 LIV Bracket)
The Mac has been entering his expert NFL handicapping picks & predictions in pick-em tournaments for over the course of his career and since 1997 he has offered his tournament bracket picks to the public. The RedAlertWagers.com team has made this information available on the internet making The MAC one of the most venerable sources for expert football betting information, against the spread NFL predictions, and NFL playoff picks, lionizing RedAlertWagers.com & Roland McGuillaman in and around sportsbooks and casinos The MACS all over today's line mistakes and the RedAlertWagers.com team is moving heavy with no apprehensions!! - $25 a month gets access to all exclusive releases and top rated premium plays!
(**Get Access to our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99 - All of today's Top Rated Plays & Special Releases**) A lot of guys shoot a arrow and paint a bulls-eye around it afterwards, not The Mac...THE MAC proves that he has tapped directly into the mainframe and shows it!
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submitted by TheMACSPicks to NBABets [link] [comments]

I created some YouTube tutorials/guides on basic sports modeling principles that this sub might find useful.

I have created some YouTube videos consisting of tutorials/how to's/general sports modeling, analytics and gambling discussion. I just uploaded these videos about an hour ago and until now no one knows about them but myself. I thought this would be a good sub to post my videos on first, as its small and rather inactive.
These aren't videos I just created on a whim and sat down on my computer, hit record on my webcam and created in 10 minutes. I have planned these videos for weeks now and shot the 6 videos I have uploaded after careful planning. Sick and tired of the misinformation being spread about sports gambling online, as well as touts having too much marketshare prescence in the YouTube sports gambling niche, I finally had enough. I made sure to create good, educational, informative content with decent production values and overall quality.
Anyway, here are the 6 videos I have uploaded so far:
General Meta Discussion
The Truth About Sports Betting
The Problem with Sports Gambling Videos on YouTube (And why mine are different!)
How to Win at Sports Betting (Is It Possible?)
How To's/Tutorials
Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Linear Regression (Featuring The Simplest Model Ever Created)
Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Adjusted Stats (Power Rating Systems)
Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Expectation (Monte Carlo Simulations)
Advanced How To's/Tutorials
Sports Betting Analytics - Using a Monte Carlo Simulation to Project In-Game Win Probability
I hope you find these videos useful. None of these 6 uploads pertain to college football so far, but I have a lot of CFB content coming especially as we get closer to the season. I am making my 9th annual trip to Las Vegas for Week 1 of College Football starting August 24 so I expect to have some good CFB content by then.
submitted by wcincedarrapids to CFBAnalysis [link] [comments]

Christmas THROWBACK: My Girlfriend And I Explored A Serial Killer's Old Apartment

Serial killers have always fascinated me. Ever since I was a kid, I've found myself both scared and intrigued by psychos like Ted Bundy or Clementine Barnabet. And as I grew older, my interest only increased.
I was from Atlanta. Growing up in lower-class Latino neighborhoods, I'd seen crime all the time. I saw gangs, drugs, violence. Basically a first-hand glimpse into real-world terror. Life wasn't always perfect. Not when I had no siblings and only my skinny mother to protect me. By thirteen, I was bitter. Angry. I didn't want sappy bullshit to cheer me up. I wanted something darker. More realistic. So in time, serial killers became my hobby.
All the while, my mom fought hard as a single mother against the plights of life. And she won. Now I just had to make sure her victory wasn't for naught.
So here I was. I, Michael Sanchez was on the verge of being the first college graduate in my family. Just one more semester and I'd be done here at Georgia State. My bachelor's degree in English complete. I really wanted to be a writer. And you guessed it, a true crime writer. My capstone project was to even be a basis for my first book: an exploration into the homes of Georgia's most infamous serial killers. Yeah, I kinda got the idea from the 1993 movie Kalifornia.
By the time Christmas break rolled around, my girlfriend Amy and I had already visited close to ten of these "homes." All around Georgia. From Atlanta to Cordele. But now we were going further South than ever before. Almost to the Florida line: Stanwyck, Georgia.
For a relatively small town, Stanwyck had its fair share of violence. Maybe the highest murder rate per capita in the entire state. We were there to check out two particular locations: Jack Bates's old house and a derelict apartment building called Sunnyside.
Sunnyside was a shambling two-story eyesore. Hell, I think it only had four "apartments" for rent. But the place was home to more than just roaches: it was also home to Clay Fowler. A bigot, a rapist. And murderer. The Stanwyck Slayer as he was called by the press.
Fowler was thirty-five by the time Apartment B was raided during the early-70s. Inside, police found the remains of all of his victims. Dozens of them found not as corpses or bodies, but just as pieces of flesh and organs.
All the pieces had been incorporated into his apartment's interior. They were sewn or nailed into all the furniture and walls. There was even a flesh-covered coffee table.
Like a deranged home decorator, Clay had used his victims for Apartment B's make-over. With the aid of his trusted fillet knife, he'd flawlessly blended the skin and bone into his home with meticulous precision. The cleanest apartment Sunnyside had ever seen. Everything was said to be so smooth and soft except for the occasional fleshy lump.
Clay had mostly been preying on children attending a nearby middle school. Most of his victims black. Considering his disgusting racism, Clay's location deep in the heart of Stanwyck's slums must've been a happy convenience for him. And like a monster of the mornings, he'd usually abduct the kids around dawn. Additionally, he'd also kill whichever adults got too close to Apartment B. Even a couple of his own neighbors from Apartment A.
From what I'd read, police were criticized for not investigating as thoroughly as they should've. An all-too-common reality whenever minorities and lower-class citizens went missing... something I was used to growing up in my poor neighborhoods.
Ultimately, Fowler got sentenced to life without parole. And to this day, The Stanwyck Slayer is still rotting behind bars.
I imagine most of y'all are probably wondering what the Hell I got out of exploring the homes of assholes like Fowler. Honestly, these journeys weren't all about my project. They satisfied my passion. My obsession. Just being in these morbid locations grounded the tragedies for me. They painted historical markers for the murderers and their victims. And ultimately, I viewed them as symbolic gravestones for such horrible crimes.
So on December twentieth, Amy and I left my mom's place. I promised to be back by Christmas Eve at the latest. After all, I'd never miss the holidays with mama. Plus, I was gonna bring her back a Stanwyck souvenir like I always did on these trips.
The pretty drive was a four hour journey through the rural American South. Amy and I had a blast like always. She considered it an early Christmas present for me, and I couldn't ask for anything better.
We were a quirky but cute couple. Both of us black-haired and brown-eyed Latinos. Both of us with hipster haircuts and eccentric clothes. Both of us from tough poor neighborhoods. But Amy was much tougher than me. Not to mention more muscular compared to me and my developing beer belly...
We'd bonded in American Lit over Edgar Allan Poe. Two outsiders in a college where everyone else considered us weird as fuck. But we didn't need them or the party scene. We had each other. Horror movies. And our shared interest in serial killers.
By four o'clock, we reached Stanwyck. I wouldn't say the town was tiny nor big. Just an average All-American city. A Wal-Mart and a great high school football team. A high school team that'd just won a state championship too.
Plus, the city's Christmas lights were glorious. Like a holiday Vegas. Such a warm greeting for a town notorious to all us true crime enthusiasts like Amy and I. There were the clean city streets. The cute country homes. The countless fast food chains... overall, Stanwyck just looked comfortable.
However, the closer we got to Sunnyside, we noticed the gradual shift from pleasant Stanwyck to downtrodden slummy Stanwyck. West Stanwyck, to be exact. The area was more industrial rather than scenic. And with it, came a conglomeration of lower-class neighborhoods and public housing. Sunnyside Apartments amongst them.
The roads got bumpier. The houses became more unappealing. The Christmas lights now resembled shabby hand-me-downs. West Stanwyck felt like a safer incarnation of the mean streets Amy and I had grown up on.
Soon, we passed the middle school. And what a brick mess it was.
A faded sign out front read: West Stanwyck Middle School. Home Of The Owls.
The sign's owl caricature would've been more at home in a 1960s cartoon. So would the school for that matter. Much like the west side's Christmas lights, Stanwyck Middle resembled yet another indifferent hand-me-down from the city.
And the neighborhoods around the school weren't much better. Almost all public housing. All full of poverty and urban decay. Small town America's rendition of my inner-city ATL Hell.
In a few blocks, we finally reached our destination and pulled up into Sunnyside's ruptured parking lot. My Toyota was the only car here. No nearby neighbors save for a shack or two. A Stanwyck Middle School bus stop was right across the street... yet another unfortunate convenience for Fowler.
Woods of tall trees and spiraling ivy were on all sides of the two-story building. The property long overgrown. Almost as if Sunnyside had become a dark forest in the middle of town.
The apartment's white stone structure was about as appealing as a funeral home. Once I saw the rickety metal stairway, I was glad Apartment B was on the ground floor.
Even in the early evening, I found it strange there weren't any cars or people around. As if the abandoned Sunnyside had been quarantined from the rest of town. Even a black eye for this lower-class neighborhood.
Holding hands, Amy and I walked toward B. Both of us struggled to stay warm in our hoodies. The harsh breeze about as vicious as Fowler's fillet knife.
We were ready for our "inspection." She had the camera. I had my iPhone out, ready to type down my thoughts. Well, Amy and I's thoughts. In many ways, this was our project.
I pulled my hoodie in closer. A weak attempt to stave off the bitter cold.
As we passed Apartment A, I stole a look through its large windows. I could see stray furniture inside. Even trash and cigarette butts on the wool carpeting. Regardless of the tacky color, the room's blue walls looked fresh rather than ancient.
"Exciting," Amy murmured.
"I know," I said. I squeezed her hand like an excited kid clinging to their parent before entering their first haunted house. "I bet they probably couldn't clean all of it."
Chuckling, Amy gave me a light punch. "That's terrible, Michael!"
"I mean it'd be pretty damn tough. The bitch had people everywhere."
"Even sewn into the couch, right?"
Like a confident professor, I looked right at her. "Correct."
We stopped at the black door. A crooked letter B hung on it. Scratches and chipped paint accompanied the rusty doorknob. Cracked glass was on all the nearby windows. Somehow this place was never rumored to be haunted, I realized.
Amy took a pic of the door. She flashed me a smile. "You ready?"
"Yeah," I replied. Cautious, I reached toward the door. Then hesitated. Even in the daylight, trespassing always got me nervous. I stole a look around us... even though I knew not a soul was around. And deep down, I knew no one would care anyway. Not even small town cops.
"I got it," Amy quipped.
Turning, I saw her go ahead and snag the doorknob.
To our surprise, the knob moved with effortless precision. One smooth turn and Amy let it creak open.
"Well, that was easy," I commented.
Grinning, Amy snapped a photo of me.
I couldn't help but smirk.
Using the camera, Amy waved me inside. "After you, sexy."
From there, we entered Apartment B. The front door slammed shut right behind us in a ferocious flourish. Of course, I jumped. And of course, Amy laughed her ass off.
"You already scared?" she teased.
I threw up my arms. "We're only in the home of one of Georgia's most prolific serial killers."
"Not our first time, Michael."
Amused, I hugged her close and gave her a kiss.
"Come on," I said. Then we got to work.
Even with all the lights out, sunshine beamed in through all the windows to light the place up like a stage. Not that there was much to light up.
Most of the apartment was a big living room. There was an old torn couch. A few blankets strewn about. Even a bulky T.V. No flesh was on any of this, of course.
Plenty of stains and trash covered the scruffy carpet. Not to mention the carpet was more ruptured than the parking lot.
A small kitchen was connected to the living room. Just an oven and a tall fridge. Not even room for a damn table.
Expecting a cold cave, I was surprised by the room's cozy warmth. As if all the squatters had set up a fireplace for the holidays.
But I could still feel the isolation in here. Even in the city limits. Apartment B was a lonely place. All ugly blandness inside. And all ugly poverty outside. I couldn't help but be reminded of my old neighborhoods. The places mama and I used to live...
I bet Fowler spent plenty of long nights in this room. Both from killing and out of boredom. There was seclusion in Apartment B's walls. Maybe being trapped in here was the final push toward The Stanwyck Slayer's killing spree? Then I realized an even creepier thought... what if Fowler was planning the murders all along? Specifically against the black race he hated. This wouldn't be a lonely place then, but a coveted spot for his evil.
As she took photos with the artistry of a SnapChatter-turned-crime-photographer, Amy pointed toward the walls. They were blood red rather than blue.
"I guess they painted it that in case they missed anything," she joked.
Smiling, I nodded. "Wouldn't surprise me."
Stopping near the T.V., I saw that all the walls were red. I knew it was paint but still felt like Amy and I had stumbled upon a recreation of the scene shocked officers had found in here over forty years ago. Red walls made of Clay's victims' flesh and blood. Not to mention the human smorgasbord that was his furniture. This was Ed Gein in overdrive.
Like an intense reporter, Amy took countless photos. And I did my best to type up notes on my phone.
Turning, I noticed a tight hallway led from the living room to a few closed doors. I figured a bedroom and bathroom. The hallway resembled a claustrophobic tunnel... claustrophobic just like the rest of this shithole apartment.
Stopping near me, an excited Amy pointed toward a shelf standing by the couch. One of the ripped-up sofa arms had obscured the sight. "Hey, check that out!" she said.
Intrigued, I followed her over to the shelf.
On top of it stood two modest picture frames. Through the cracked glass, each frame showed a lesbian couple in their mid-30s. Attractive but clearly lower-class. Grungy clothes and hairstyles. Countless piercings. The taller one was a white girl with green eyes and long blonde hair, the other an African-American with a sexy fohawk.
"Who are they?" Amy asked.
"Probably the last renters," I said.
Amy took closer shots of both pics.
Smirking, I looked back at all the red walls. Now that I was this close, the paint did look quite fresh. "Probably back when rent was one-hundred a month."
Laughing, Amy confronted me. "Even that's too much."
Through the windows, I saw the sunlight fading into night. The apartment was getting darker. And creepier. Just how Amy and I liked it. Like a morbid museum that retained a curious mystique by day but became fucking terrifying once the lights went out.
"Come on," I said. With that, I led the way toward the hallway. Toward those doors.
Amy stayed close. Like a constant soundtrack, I kept hearing her camera go off.
"You think we'll find anything?" she asked.
I flashed her a grin. "I sure hope not."
The hallway was even darker than the living room. No windows for comfort. Like we were going further within the cave that was Apartment B.
Both doors were black and looked older than slabs of stone. The knobs long conquered by rust.
I snagged the first one, but it was locked. Stunned, I kept turning the knob to no avail. "What the fuck..." I muttered.
"Why's it locked?" Amy asked, incredulous.
"Weird..."
The entire apartment got darker and darker. As if Sunnyside Apartments was getting near closing time. Yet Apartment B was still warm. Sure, the shitty building was shelter from the cold... but this was constant heat. There was no cool breeze seeping in or a dominant draft for that matter.
"I wonder what the last tenants were hiding," Amy quipped in a Crypt Keeper tone.
Grinning, I looked at her warm smile.
"Hey, we can dream, right," she commented.
"Why not." Ready to explore, I grabbed the other doorknob. But it wouldn't budge. Both doors were locked tight.
Annoyed, I pounded on the hard door. The hits hurt me more than anything. Like I was banging on concrete.
"Fuck!" I yelled as I drew my hand back.
Chuckling, Amy pulled me back. "Nice try, doofus."
I confronted the door, frustrated I couldn't see what secrets lied behind it.
"I think there's a window out back," Amy said.
With the sudden fright of a blaring police siren, the front door swung open.
"Oh fuck!" I exclaimed.
Scared shitless, Amy and I turned to see a couple enter from the dark night. Two laughing females. Their drunken laughter reminiscent of hyenas.
I felt Amy's nervous hand grab my shoulder. Full of dread, I wrapped my arm around her and pulled her in close. There we stood in the dark like uneasy soldiers.
One quick flick and the living room lights cut on. Loud, humming bulbs illuminated the apartment like a clinical lab.
The two girls were the lesbian couple from the photos. The strange couple. In addition to the piercings, they wore punk clothing. Ripped jeans and tee-shirts. Tight black leather jackets.
The fohawk girl carried two large brown grocery bags. Overfilled bags. Like an All-American family's shopping spree gone mad.
Still chuckling, the blonde woman stumbled over toward the kitchen. Neither woman had seen us yet.
My mind was at a panicked blank. What the fuck were we gonna do?
Apparently, Amy had an idea. Stepping away from me, Amy approached the two women.
"I'm sorry," Amy said, her voice apologetic yet strong.
I followed after her. Yeah, I felt weird, but I wasn't gonna let my gf go alone.
Surprised, the fohawk girl flashed us an amused smile. "Oh, hi there." She placed the grocery bags on the couch.
I heard the fridge opening in the kitchen. The sound of drinks and food being pushed around.
Together, Amy and I stopped in the living room. Awkward as always. Like we'd crashed an upscale party rather than just broken into a shitty apartment.
"Shit, we're so sorry!" Amy went on, doing her best to suppress her unease. "We didn't know anyone lived here."
Holding a can of PBR, the tall blonde stopped next to her girlfriend. A wicked smile dominated the blonde's haggard face. "Well, look what the cat drug in."
"I know," her girlfriend said. "We've got visitors."
"Pretty ones too." The blonde took a long sip, savoring the cheap booze. The couple's smiles were confident but warm. Like proud hostesses.
Keeping her cool, Amy took a calm step toward them. "I'm sorry. We came here because we heard this was where The Stanwyck Slayer lived."
The blonde's bright eyes lit up. "Oh. Clay Fowler, right?"
"Yes."
Gathering my nerves, I stopped next to Amy. "Yeah, this was his apartment, right?" I asked. "Apartment B?"
"Oh yeah," the blonde went on. She took another compulsive sip like it was a dose of prescribed medicine. "Mrs. Barrymore warned us about it when we moved in."
"Our landlord," fohawk chimed in.
Amy and I released nervous chuckles.
"Warned y'all?" I joked like an anxious comedian. I stole a glance around the room. "He's not still here, is he?"
The blonde laughed. "No, not at all, man. That bitch has been gone."
Grinning, her girlfriend motioned toward Amy's camera. "What's that for?"
"Y'all trying to do an interview?" the blonde teased.
"Like a documentary," fohawk added.
Hiding her nerves better than I ever could, Amy held up the camera. "We were just taking pictures. Honestly, we really thought Sunnyside was abandoned."
"Yeah," I added. "We're trying to explore the houses of different famous serial killers."
"No shit!" the blonde exclaimed.
Excited, her girlfriend hit her shoulder. "That's so cool!"
"I'm honestly surprised no one's been around here before," I said. "I mean this is like history."
"Mmm-hmm," Amy said.
Like a smug celebrity on a photo shoot, the blonde draped her arm over her girl. One hand on her girlfriend, the other on a PBR. All that was missing was a cigarette. "Well, we don't worry about it too much," the blonde stated. She exchanged smiles with fohawk. "Rent's cheap and we're together." Her beaming eyes confronted Amy and I. "That's all that matters."
"I understand," Amy said. "Again, I'm sorry we barged in like this."
Like a pathetic apologetic suburban dad, I forced a chuckle. Clark Griswold himself would've cringed. "Yeah, I thought it was a little too warm in here to be abandoned."
Laughing, fohawk faced her partner. "Oh my God, did you leave the heat on again!"
The blonde waved her can toward the front door. "Shit, you're the one who left the damn door open!"
"Well, we should probably leave," Amy said. "I'm sorry about all this."
Eager, I joined Amy. "Yeah."
Using her PBR like a baton, the blonde kept us at bay. "Whoa, y'all ain't taking nothing now, are you?"
Her girlfriend grabbed her arm. "Babe-"
"No, I'm serious, Chris!" the blonde interrupted. She focused her stoic stare on us. "They were just messing around in our apartment."
"I promise we didn't," Amy said.
Chris wrapped her arm around the blonde. "You locked the bedroom remember?"
"True," the blonde admitted.
Trying to leave the awkward situation, Amy exchanged nervous looks with me. "Well, we really should get going."
But the couple didn't budge. Like a human blockade, they stayed in front of the doorway.
Chris's curious eyes stayed focused on us. "Fowler was the one who killed all the black kids, right? With a fillet knife or some shit?"
"Yeah, he's fucking terrible," I said.
Like a mob boss, the blonde took another cool sip. "So why are y'all so interested in him then?"
I felt the couple's stares pierce into us like daggers.
"Well," I stammered. Turning, I saw Amy's annoyed glare strike me with ferocity.
"It's for his project," Amy added.
"Yeah," I said. "I'm doing a book on serial killers. About their homes and houses and shit." I waved toward Amy. "She's taking the pictures and helping me."
Smiles cracked through the couple's stoic facades.
"Aww, how cute!" the blonde teased.
"Y'all know about Jack Bates too, right?" Chris asked us.
Amy grinned. "Of course."
"Yeah, we're gonna stop at his place next," I said.
Like a rebellious teenager that was too cool for school, the blonde let out a smug chuckle. "Aw, man. Plenty of weirdos in this town."
"Not even counting us," Chris joked.
"Yeah, that's what I've heard," I said.
With forceful energy, Amy pulled me toward the door. "Well, it was nice meeting y'all," Amy said to the couple.
"Oh yeah, you too," Chris replied. Unlike the blonde, Chris stepped out of the way. Just enough space for us to clear out of Apartment B.
Turning, I faced the couple. "I'm sorry about everything."
"No, you're fine," Chris said in a warm tone. "Bye."
Like a confident cop, the blonde's eyes and smirk stayed on me. "Take care," she said with sardonic sharpness.
Amy and I stepped out into the furious cold. The temperature had dropped even further since we went into the apartment.
As if she were shutting us into a chest freezer, Chris closed the door behind us. The powerful effects of Apartment B's heater were now gone without a trace.
Desperate to stay warm, I hugged Amy close. "Well, that was fun."
"A little too exciting," Amy said with a laugh.
Together, we started walking back to my Toyota. The howling breeze kept hitting us in waves. Amy jammed her hands in her hoodie pockets. Camera included.
"I guess I'll have to do more research next time," I said. My eyes drifted over toward one of Apartment B's many windows.
"Naw, that's my bad," Amy said.
Not saying a word, I came to a horrified stop. The combination of the cold and my own extreme fear cemented me in place.
Startled, Amy looked at me. "Michael."
But I couldn't answer. My eyes were captivated by the sight inside Apartment B.
Through the windows, I could see the lesbian couple empty the grocery bags onto the couch like open Christmas presents.
Right on the sofa fell a grisly collection. Blood-red "gifts": severed human limbs and pulpy organs.
The two women looked excited and thrilled. Like bank robbers evaluating their stolen loot. Only this was stolen, slaughtered lives.
I felt Amy's terrified hand snatch my arm. Her grip colder than the December air.
Then when Chris and the blonde both looked up at us, their eyes looked colder than Death.
My soul became twisted in knots. Especially once the couple gave Amy and I those wicked smiles.
The two of them looked so happy. Even with the scattered gore all over their bodies and drenched across the ugly sofa. They had the enthusiastic spirit of Clay Fowler. And the enthusiastic evil of Apartment B.
"Come on!" the frightened Amy yelled through the cold.
I felt her yank my arm out of its socket. But it was the wake-up call I needed.
Snapping out of my frozen fear, I followed Amy toward the Toyota. All the way through the slicing cool air.
The door to Apartment B burst open like gunfire through the quiet night.
Scared, I turned and saw the couple run after us. Each of them held a long fillet knife. Just like Clay Fowler's weapon of choice. The couple's smiles looked more vicious than those long blades too.
"Shit!" I yelled.
"Keep going!" Amy demanded.
Amy's grip tightened on my arm, cutting off whatever blood flow the cold hadn't zapped from me yet.
As we passed Apartment A, I stole a look at the windows.
Through the cold air erupting from my lips, I saw a similarly horrific scene like the one I saw in Apartment B.
A middle-aged white couple spread out on the living room floor. Presumably the landlords: the Barrymores. Naked and laughing, they splashed around on the carpet. A carpet drenched in buckets of blood... as if the couple were making grisly snow Angels.
Like a persistent cab driver, Amy wouldn't let me stop for too long. Not that I wanted to. Not when I could hear the lesbian couple get closer and closer. Or when Mr. Barrymore's wild gaze made direct eye contact with my frightened eyes.
Finally, we reached the Toyota. Amy shoved me toward the passenger's seat. I felt the cold window hit my hands. Honestly, I was shocked my hands didn't explode like busted ice upon impact.
Amy hopped in behind the wheel. "Get in!" she yelled.
Terrified, I turned. All of Sunnyside was descending upon us.
I saw crazed couples running down the metal stairway. Their loud clanging footsteps sounded like a robotic army. Their frenetic movement made the staircase tremble in the wind. All of them were armed with the fillet knives. All of them glowered right at us.
And now the lesbian couple and the Barrymores were less than fifteen feet away. The Barrymores still nude and bathed in blood. Their fillet knives craving our flesh.
I heard the Toyota start like a motorcycle ready to race. And I was ready to get the fuck out of here. The smartest thing I'd done all day, or in my entire life, was give Amy those car keys before heading into Apartment B. Thank fucking God, I did.
Without further ado, I jumped into the passenger's seat. All I could do was stare out the window as Amy put the car in reverse.
The Sunnyside tenants got closer and closer. As did their glares. Their bloodlust. Their sharp blades.
Breathing heavy, Amy drove off with a furious mash on the pedal. And she never looked back.
I suppose I shouldn't have either... but I couldn't help myself. Like a trembling child, my wide eyes looked back at Sunnyside. At all the bizarre residents.
They gave chase down the street. And then finally, they dropped out of sight... we were finally out of their collective crosshairs. Amy and I were safe.
By this point, we had no interest in going to Jack Bates's house. Amy didn't even have to talk me into it. Shit, she'd even offered to still go there just for me. Just for my Christmas "present." But I'd had enough of the book for the holidays. Maybe in January, I'd feel up to exploring more... just damn sure not now.
We made one stop at a local gas station. There, Amy called the Stanwyck police and told them about Sunnyside. She begged them to go out there as soon as possible. On the phone, they tried to calm her down, but Amy was understandably not having any of that. They even tried to tell us Sunnyside had been abandoned since the early 90s... just like my research had led me to believe. But nonetheless, the dispatcher told us they'd send a few officers over there to check it out. Only Amy and I weren't sticking around to hear more. No fucking way.
Before leaving Stanwyck, I ran inside the convenience store and got mama her souvenir. A cute Bearcat coffee mug. Yeah, I know. A pretty cheesy mascot for such a dominant high school football team. I gotta say it was unique though... plus, mama did love her animals.
Amy and I made it a straight shot back to Atlanta. With Christmas music rather than true-crime podcasts playing all the way... like we were a family looking at lights on December 24. Smiling, we sang along to all the cheesy lyrics. I guess narrowly surviving an attack from a band of murderers could make you a little sentimental. But through it all, Amy and I survived. And we'd be home for Christmas.
14
submitted by rhonnie14 to rhonnie14 [link] [comments]

Growler Season Preview & GDT: Manchester Monarchs at Growlers 5:30PM EST (watch live)

Friday Night Game & Banner Hanging
Watch: Will post below
Listen: Mixlr NLGrowlers
It’s Game 1, Season 2 for the reigning Kelly Cup Champion Newfoundland Growlers! To no one’s surprise who understands the Dubas mindset, this year’s Growlers are the youngest team in ECHL again, by almost half a year. In fact, a quick glance at this Growler roster shows that Dubas and the organization is doubling-down again this year on youth, scoring and speed - in an even more extreme way than Season 1.
Dubas is Doubling-Down on Previous Wagers:
Wager #1: Get Even Younger - While this team has more pro hockey experience than last year’s team by virtue of the fact that 10 players from last year’s team return, the Growlers still have 4 rookie pros at forward (Conrad, Woods, Brazeau and Trey Bradley), 3 rookie pros on defence (Hollowell, Duszak and Sapego), and 2 rookie pros at goaltender (Zhukov & Scott “IR”). Interestingly, only 2 players (Melindy & O’Brien) will qualify as ECHL Veterans (ECHL permits 4). In fact, they are so young that none of the current non-veteran players will even qualify as veterans next year.
Wager #2: The 3 Tier System - This is a term that is now being heard repeatedly out of the organization. The philosophy of Toronto’s farm system has now been identified, labelled and it is being sold into the hockey community - especially to prospective players and their representatives. Last year’s and previous ECHL “experiments” are over. The 3 Tier System is now being accelerated, and marketed, which brings us to Wager #3.
Wager #3: Roster Stability - Dubas signed a bunch of AHL contracts - AGAIN. He keeps breaking signing records, set previously by himself (Note: Dubas is pace-setting this trend as AHL signings have increased gradually from 250 to 316 AHL contract signings the past 4 years). This year, there are so many talented players in both minor pro tiers that I don’t foresee a lot of movement of players between the Growlers and Marlies during the year - certainly much less movement than last year. Both teams are stacked and deep - and I think this was done intentionally to allow players to develop at one tier for the entire season. I think the organization believes that upward mobility should be primarily reserved for the off-season, not during the season. Injuries will happen, but last year 49 different players put on a Growler uniform (just slightly above average in the ECHL). This year, I don’t think that number will get much above 30, and will be among the lowest in the league. So, sit back and enjoy Growlers fans, Brazeau, Conrad, Duszak, Scott, Zhukov, Hollowell etc. are all highly likely to play the entire season in Newfoundland because that is the best place for their development.
Wager #4: Organizational Depth - Fully healthy, every single one of the 10 Growler forwards will be on either NHL or AHL contracts, plus one more AHL contract will be in the press box. The depth and talent is so ridiculously good that it is, well…ridiculous. Expect a LOT of goals. In one preseason game against Brampton last week there were two 4 on 1s and one 5 on 1 break-out. Yes, you read that right - a 5 on 1. It’s the ECHL baby.
The Growler Defence Top 6 has 2 players on NHL contracts, 2 players on AHL contracts, and 2 players (Melindy & Johnston) on ECHL contracts - who are excellent ECHL defence men. When Gudbranson comes off the IR, he should be in the Top 6, and would add a 3rd veteran to the overall roster, but there legitimately is an issue as to where Gilman can put him. The organization is stacked on the Right Side with Liljegren, Schmaltz, Lindgren, Ryan Johnston, Hollowell, Duszak, Melindy and returning Growler #7 RHD Evan Neugold. Gudbranson would be a #7-9 D man on the Marlies, thus forced to sit, and the ECHL permits only a 20 man roster, so he can’t camp there. And they are not going to sit ELC players like Duszak and Hollowell, nor will they sit team Captain James Melindy. What makes Gudbranson’s situation even trickier is a new ECHL rule which stipulates that a veteran player on an AHL deal will have to have played 5 games in the AHL in order to be eligible for the ECHL playoffs.
Wager #5: Rookie Goaltenders - “Ian, Maxim, there’s the deep end. Now jump in!” How the tandem of two rookie goaltenders Scott and Zhukov will perform is the biggest question next to the defence. Scott is still on the IR, and is being spelled by Patrick Munson who also is pretty much a rookie with only 12 professional games played…in the U.K. So, youth it is. Personally, I am kind of excited to see what Zhukov might be capable of. He was drafted by Vegas in 2017 and was of the same pedigree as Scott at that time (he was drafted ahead of Scott). He did not have the junior success of Scott, but he also bounced around North America 10,000 miles away from home. I’m willing to see what can play out here. Personally, I love the idea of having 2-3 young goaltenders in the system at all times anyway.
Wager #6 (and the biggest bet of them all): A young, small and highly mobile defence. This year’s starting Top 6 is 25lbs. lighter per player than last year’s playoff Top 6, and includes 3 rookies, two of whom are on NHL contracts. The organization experimented with small defensemen last year, (e.g. PTO 150lb. Cory Dunn from Division III NCAA. Dunn scored 5 points in 7 games before he was eventually released), but NOTHING like this.
It is going to be very interesting to see what a small, mobile defence will be capable of in the ECHL. As much as I embrace faster, skilled hockey, there were times in the Kelly Cup playoffs last year when I was very thankful that the Growlers had big, tough, stay-at-home defensemen like Adam Pardy, James Melindy and Alex Gudbranson to withstand heavy forechecking and calm things down.
To me, this year’s ECHL defence consisting of 170lb. Hollowell, 179lb. Sapego and 185lb. Duzsak is perhaps the biggest experiment Dubas has attempted to date as Maple Leafs GM. I liken Dubas’ all-out focus on skill and speed - and apparent disregard of size - to the evolution of no-huddle, spread, high-tempo offences that proliferated college football 15 years ago to great success. Speed and space are the tenets of modern gridiron offences now - even the NFL game adapted and evolved. Pioneers of this style of play were coaches like Chip Kelly, Gus Malzhan, Urban Meyer, Hal Mumme, Mike Leach etc. I classify Dubas is a similar category of game innovators — and the Newfoundland Growlers are his test laboratory.
If this Growler Top 6 can be effective in the ECHL, then a similar concept can work in the NHL. It is going to be a fascinating experiment. People criticized Football Spread Offences as being merely a technique to level the playing field between the smaller schools which could not recruit the big, elite athletes like the Alabamas & Ohio States of the world by exploiting an inefficiency on the field — space. The criticism was that while the Spread offences could score a lot of points, ultimately the game will get ground-down by the bigger athletes who will control the ball, the clock, and wear the other team down.
Sounds a lot like the current hockey debate, doesn’t it?
But then the Cincinnati Bearcats nearly won the National Championship. And Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. And Oregon became a National Power. And Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia became perennial top 20 Programs. And high school coaches who pioneered the Spread like Gus Malzahn became Big SEC Program Head Coaches. Now the game is changed forever - at all levels.
Will the Growlers attempt a different style of hockey engineered around their small, mobile defensemen akin to how smaller universities experimented with the Spread in the 1990s with their fast, under-recruited but speedy athletes? Why not use the ECHL as the test lab?
While there will be undoubtedly some Growlers defensive challenges this year, keep in mind that this is the most talented and deep forward group in the ECHL capable of out-scoring any deficit. Maybe the 5 on 1 will be a frequent thing. lol
Defensive experiments aside, I believe the Growlers is the best possible place for Hollowell and Duzsak to develop - it will be a trial by fire because they will not be protected and will be playing 20+ minutes a game every night in all situations. They are going to grow up in a hurry, and after a full season in the ECHL, they should be ready to go in all situations with the Marlies next year.
Enjoy the game.

EDIT POST GAME
Growlers lose 6-5 in a game where they went ahead 3-0 half way through the first period and looked on the way towards a blow-out. Then Zhukov started letting pucks in. He looked bad. Really bad. Growlers win this game 6-1 or 6-2 with Garteig in net. I'm not sure what to make of this game other than 6 goals from 24 shots for a 0.75 SV% and a 6.0 GAA. The Growlers had the lead 5-4 mid way through the 3rd period and were playing pretty conservatively, perhaps too much so, but it probably wouldn't have mattered.
Notable play from all the usuals like O'Brien, Ferguson and Estephan. Hollowell, Riley Woods and Duszak looked pretty good too. Sapego was a -4 and Melindy a -3. Hollowell, Duszak, Kapla and Johnston were all +1.
It's going to take some time. :)
submitted by irishcedar to TorontoMarlies [link] [comments]

With the return of College Football right around the corner, here are some of the best websites/apps I've found over the years to be great resources. What are your favorites?

First and foremost, /CFB of course. No explanation needed, we're all here.
NCAA Scores - No clutter, live scoreboard, search by top 25/conference/all games.
Game Viewing Guide - Great website to quickly see what games are playing on what channel and when with a nice visual guide.
lsufootball.net - Lists all games, what channels they're on and has links to stream games through the official network's website (FSGo, WatchESPN, CBSSN, etc.).
Vegas Insider - Betting lines.
CFB Poll - Direct link to the /CFB poll.
CFB Streams - Find live streams of games through reddit.
CFB inline flair - Quickly access all the inline flair on /CFB.
CFB Sports Reference - My favorite resource for all stats CFB.
FBS College Football Live Scores, Plays, Schedule - Android App - I'm not sure if there is an iOS version or not but this is hands down the best CFB scores app I've found on Android. Live scores, spreads, says what channel the game is on, on the fly notifications for things like 'notify if game is close late in 4th' etc. It even has a dark mode. Free with ads or pay to remove ads.
The Atheltic - Subscription based sports writing. I got it because Pete Sampson joined on to cover Notre Dame and I like his stuff.
What sites/apps do you guys use/have bookmarked for College Football?
submitted by Notre_Dame_Football to CFB [link] [comments]

I created an algorithm to help me decide which hockey team to support in my inaugural season of NHL fandom. Here are the results!

Hello hockey
As the title states, I have created a mathematical formula to decide what hockey team I will support. I will break up this post into a few sections to make it easier to read (aka casually skim through until the very end to see the results). There will be a TLDR at the end of each section.
WHY
Let’s start off with a little background for this fun scientific experiment. I live in a little midwest state by the name of Indiana. You may have heard of us. We’re known for many things, such as basketball (yay!) and the Indy 500 (meh). Outside of Larry Bird, Tony Stewart, and casual racism from everyone’s grandparents, there’s not too much else here. Anyway, growing up in the mid-to-late 1990s, Indiana was a great place in terms of sports. The Indiana Pacers were a consistently great team, thanks to Reggie Miller & company (still sad no titles). The Colts were up-and-coming with the one and only Peyton Manning. Bobby Knight still coached IU basketball and there was still an air of success around the program. Like most kids in Indiana at the time, I gravitated towards basketball.
Fast forward to today. Here I am, nearly 26 years old. The Pacers heyday has come and gone, with our biggest star in 20 years now gone. IU basketball is the shell of a program it used to be, with the team flirting with relevancy during my days as a student there (2010-2014), before spiraling down to our current state of mid-tier in the Big Ten. The Colts, even though we secured a Super Bowl, felt like there should’ve been 2 or 3 more, and will forever be known as postseason choke artists of the 2000s.
Enter the 2017 NBA and NHL Playoffs.
The 2017 NBA playoffs was essentially a two month time period where some groups of guys tried to throw pebbles at a couple of Apache Attack Helicopters. Like when you’re playing Civilization, and you move your tanks into a group of crossbowmen. From day one of this NBA season, everyone knew the Finals would be the Warriors vs the Cavs. I love watching basketball, especially playoffs, but first three rounds of the NBA playoffs were hard to watch. Very few close, exciting games, with lots of blow outs. This left a void in my heart. I needed to watch something sports related before we got to the worst time of the year (the time of year where basketball is over and football has yet to begin, and the only sport to watch on TV is baseball. In-person, baseball is fine. You get some fresh air, some hotdogs, and a couple beers with some friends. Good times. But who wants to watch a full baseball game on TV? 55 year old, white, recently divorced fathers, that’s who. Seeing as how I am only one of those things (I’ll let you guess which), I did NOT want to spend the last couple months before baseball-only season with no entertaining sports. So, as I was watching my Pacers give up the largest playoff lead in NBA playoff history, I decided to flip over to some playoff hockey.
It was so fun! I ended up watching Rangers vs Habs (Rangers won 3-2 in OT) and Sharks vs Oilers (Oilers won in OT). I struggled to understand some of what was going on, but it was EXCITING! So the next day, I watched the Caps beat the Leafs in OT, and Bruins beat the Sens in OT. And you know what, THOSE GAMES WERE EXCITING TOO (Well, Bruins - Sens was kind of exciting. More on that later). I barely even watched the NBA Playoffs that night, I was hooked. So I started popping into hockey and lurking through some of the game threads. I saw some gifs of Fleury doing silly things like hiding the puck from the refs, pat the goal-posts when a puck bounces off the iron, and even jerk off his stick when the handle saved a goal. Charles Barkley started preaching about the NHL being awesome, and I’ve always admired Chuck for telling it like it is. I saw both the exciting side and the silly side of the NHL in this subreddit. I knew I could get into this sport.
Prior to those two nights of playoff hockey, my exposure to hockey was minimal. In 2002, when I was 11, I got the videogame Backyard Hockey for PC for my birthday. Martin Brodeur was my team’s goalie, and Jaromir Jagr lead my team in points. I chose the Flames as my franchise, because to an 11 year old, WHAT’S COOLER THAN FIRE!?! C is the letter of my first name, which as you know is also Calgary’s logo, so naturally, I had to pick them. I even renamed them the Calgary Caleb’s. What a fucking dynasty. 12 straight undefeated seasons. Wow, such an amazing run. One for the record books. That’s the only thing I remember from that video game. I didn’t play the game much after a month or so, because that is when I got sucked into Morrowind for hundreds of hours.
The only other exposure I had into hockey was during college. Like I said earlier, I went to Indiana University, and of course, that school was LOADED with Blackhawk bandwagoners. I hadn’t seen a single Hawks jersey on campus until they won the cup in 2013, and then they were everywhere. This annoyed me. So the following year, I was out at the bars and the 2014 NHL Playoffs had just started. It was game 1 between the Blues and the Hawks, and of course, the bar was packed with people wearing Blackhawks jerseys, not even watching the game. Me, being slightly intoxicated, started heckling everyone wearing a Hawks jersey. “GOOOOOOOO BLUE TEAM!” I repeatedly shouted. Finally, after 3 OTs, the Blues won the game, so I began heckling even more. I’m surprised I didn’t get in a fight, but after a while, I realized it’s because the Hawks fans there were just bandwagoning and probably didn’t really care. Fun Fact: The number of fights I got into that night is equal to the number of games the Blackhawks won this postseason.
Once I got sucked into the NHL playoffs this year, I knew I wanted to get into hockey for real. The problem was, I live in central Indiana. I can’t just support my local team, because I don’t have a local team. I thought about being a Blues fan (GOOOO BLUE TEAM!), but I didn’t really like the idea of supporting a team solely out of my disdain for the fans of another team (Hawks). I wanted to be fully invested in the team. I also considered the Golden Knights, but then I remembered this article from fivethirtyeight. I could totally come up with something like that for my own. After an hour or so of tweaking and determining criteria, the algorithm was born.
TLDR: Channel Surfed to 2017 NHL Playoffs, games were awesome, no local team for me to support, time to create a (mostly) unbiased formula.
METHODOLOGY
Warning, some dry math-shit ahead.
I will be assigning a score of 1 to 10 for every single team against a set of criteria. Each criteria will be weighted. I decided to score every NHL team on the following 14 criteria.
1. Jersey and Logo Coolness. Very much a personal opinion here. I wouldn't want to support a team wearing the Mooterus Stars jersey or the Fisherman Islanders jersey. Granted, there really isn't anything quite as ugly as those currently but I will also try and factor in throwback uniforms and logos as well.
2. Quality of Best Player (Skill + Likability). It's important to have a marketable player, both via skill and personality. For example, Crosby would score very high skill-wise, but low on the likeability factor. Half the score here is skill, the other half likability. This was 1 of 2 criteria that generated a lot of internal argument
3. Geographic Closeness. The closest team to where I live is the Blue Jackets at 3 hours 20 minutes(drive time). They will serve as the baseline 10 for this criteria. Every additional 2 hours past 3 hours 20 minutes will result in a loss of a point. Google maps will serve as the utility for which time is measured
4. Quality of Fanbase. Are you fans classy, or are they all inconsiderate douchebags? Low score = hostile fans or fair weather fans.
5. Appearance of bandwagoning if supporting. Nobody likes a bandwagoner. Indiana University was filled with Blackhawk jerseys after they won the Stanley Cup. I hadn't seen a single Blackhawks jersey prior. I find this type of behavior extremely annoying, so I do not want to join a team that has a high bandwagon factor. A low score indicates a high bandwagon appearance.
6. Potential for next 5 years (Youth + Assets). I want to support a team that doesn't necessarily have to be a contender to win it all next year, but I would like to support a team that at least is considered to be a on the upswing. This was the other criteria that generated a lot of internal argument
7. Past Postseason Success. Self Explanatory.
8. Franchise Reputation. Is the franchise known for having a great GM, making savvy personnel decisions, being considered a model franchise by other franchises and other fans? Think the San Antonio Spurs of the NHL.
9. Quality of Goal Song / Power Play Song. A small factor that shouldn't be overlooked. A good goal song should be happy and joyful, a good power play song should stir excitement. I don't even know if all teams have a goal or power play song, but if you don't, you're wrong and I hate you. I concede, Chelsea Dagger is a great goal song
10. Entertainment Factor. I don't care if my future team goes 82-0 if they win every game 1-0 with a goal in the first period. I want to support a team that will excite, for better or worse. Kind of like the Capitals being a choke-hazard. Ottawa, on the other hand, is notorious for running a 1-3-1, which in layman’s terms, translates to “Boring AF”. (The first Sens - Bruins game I watched this post-season wasn’t that bad, but as the playoffs progressed, I started to get worn down by their style)
11. Disposition for City Based Upon Other Sport Fandom And Other Personal Experiences. I like basketball and football. I used to be a bigger baseball fan, but that has waned off in the past 6-7 years. I still pay attention, but not to the degree of the other two sports. Naturally, the teams I support (Pacers, Colts, Reds) have rivals. It would pain me to be a fan of the Bruins, because I know that a lot of Bruin fans are also Patriot fans. Same with Chicago because of Bulls vs Pacers. A low score here indicates that I do not like other sports teams in this city. I will also factor in personal experiences if I have ever been to the city in question.
12. Coaching. Nothing more infuriating in sports than having a great roster with poor direction from the coach. I have much experience with that feeling, unfortunately. (See the 2013 IU Men’s Basketball team, who was ranked number 1 in the nation, but couldn’t break a fucking zone defense from Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen. Really, Tom Crean? Really? That’s middle school stuff right there)
13. Arena Quality. How bad is the arena in need of renovations? Is there a new stadium coming? Does the stadium kick ass? I plan on actually traveling to see a game in the next year or two, a nice arena would be welcome.
14. Strength In Advanced Stats. My friend Jacob, the advanced stats nerd of a hockey fan, suggested this criteria. He created a custom formula to rank every team in this area. Here is his write-up for the formula he created. Warning, even dryer math-shit ahead. Skip this quoted area to get on with the methodology.
No seriously, this shit is dry. You have been warned
GOALIES
To summarize goalie performance, I wanted to use season-by-season goals saved above average (GSAA).
Basic formula:
GSAA=Saves-(Total ShotsLeague Average season save%)*
Summary: "How many more saves did this goalie make than a league-average goalie would have made on the same amount of shots?" (higher is better).
This takes into account ever-changing league average save% and weights for shot quantity. However, this alone does not factor in shot quality which in my mind is an important factor as well, to remove team defensive ability from the goalie’s performance. If a goalie pads his stats with saves on low-quality shots, what does that truly say about his ability?
To include shot quality, I pulled goalie save data from firstlinestats.com, which has shots categorized by low/medium/high danger. I computed the league average for each of these danger categories & calculated every goalie’s GSAA for each category. I then rounded all 3 up into one number, which was weighted as such:
Weighted GSAA=1.2High Danger GSAA+Medium Danger GSAA+0.8*Low Danger GSAA *
Validity sniff test:
In the 2016-17 season, the top 2 goalies by my calculations were Cam Talbot and Sergei Bobrovsky.
Talbot had a huge workload (started 73 games) and had an above-league-average overall save% at .919, all while facing the most high-danger shots of any goalie.
Weighted GSAA: 49.14
Bobrovsky had a big workload (started 63 games), had a historic overall save% of .931, also faced many high-danger shots, and won the Vezina trophy.
Weighted GSAA: 48.89
Though some may debate the order, in my mind, this passes.
I evaluated each team’s starter & backup by calculating each of their last 3 seasons’ weighted GSAA. To gauge their overall quality, I weighted their last 3 seasons 4/9, 3/9, and 2/9 (from most recent to least) to project ability & weed out outlier seasons as best as possible.
For overall goalie systems, I used starter quality by weighted GSAA, backup quality by weighted GSAA, and prospect quality to get an overall snapshot of a team’s goalie system. Prospect quality came from InGoal Magazine’s rankings from pre-2016-17 season, which admittedly is dated but was the best I could find.
Overall Team Goalie Quality=0.65Starter Quality+0.25Prospect Quality+0.1Backup Quality*
SKATERS
(note: in this section, when I say “shot” I mean “unblocked shot”, aka “shots on goal + missed shots”, aka “Fenwick”)
To summarize team’s skaters ability, I wanted to cover 4 aspects: even-strength shot generation, even-strength shot suppression, power play shot generation, and penalty kill shot suppression. As noted by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com, shot generation & suppression are mostly independent, so I reviewed those 2 parameters separately rather than in terms of Fenwick %.
Upfront, I’ll acknowledge the weaknesses in this section:
Ideally I would have used zone-, score-, and venue-adjusted Fenwick for these calculations, but with Corsica down I made do with the free analytics data I could find. I also only used last season’s numbers here...since there have been plenty of offseason moves, particularly with the expansion draft, I figured looking at only last regular season’s shot data would be the most representative going forward, though I admit it won’t be perfect.
To cover the 4 aspects mentioned previously, I pulled the following data, and weighted the numbers as noted:
I then ranked all teams based on this weighted criteria. For Vegas, I made a snap judgement call & rated them right in the middle of the pack. This was reinforced by their current signed roster; they have a mix of historically positive shot impact players like James Neal, average possession players like Cody Eakin, & negative possession players like Luca Sbisa. As far as I can tell, they’re aiming for right in the middle of the pack in terms of puck possession.
OVERALL
After all that, my overall ranking system was simple. 40% goalie, 60% skaters to give a one-stop estimator of team’s advanced stats strength.
Wow, I thought my algorithm was in-depth, but Jacob put his super complex shit inside of my kinda complex shit. And I thought I was a nerd.
But how did I determine the weight of the criteria? I didn’t want to just arbitrarily assigned values to each criteria. I wanted to be a bit more scientific. Using a website called www.allourideas.com, I input the 14 criteria into their tool. The website then randomly pits one criteria against another, and I had to choose which I think is more important. I did this over the course of three weeks with 700 matchups voted upon. This “over time” approach help paint a more accurate picture as to what I find truly the most important. My opinions could change day to day, but across 3 weeks, this helped create a better overall picture. Once I reached the day I had planned to do the algorithm, I viewed the results. The website presented me with a 1-100% chance that a criteria would beat any other criteria. I then took the values and divided them by 50. This reduced the scale of the weight to be between 0 and 2. I felt that a criteria weight between 0-2 was a good number. I didn’t feel that any one criteria was more than 2 times more important than another. This would give me a much tighter spread on final point totals than if I had just assigned a 1 to 14 criteria importance. Also, a tighter point spread means more excitement for me and my friends as we filled out the algorithm. If Franchise Reputation is weight of 1.5, and I scored a team with a 10 for that criteria, then that is worth 15 points. Hopefully that makes sense. See screenshot in the final google sheet for the head-to-head probability results. This is pre-scaling of the weight.
I’m new to hockey, so how the hell am I supposed to know what team has a great coach, or who the hell has potential for the future, or a good reputation? To help me conduct the algorithm, I am relying on three of my friends who are hockey fans to help me determine point values for the criteria. u/the_team_plug is a lifelong Bruins fan, so when it comes to the Habs, I’m not sure I will take his opinion into consideration. Otherwise, he played goalie up through college, so he actually has a pretty good knowledge base. u/OsuJaws is a longtime Red Wings fan, and seems to believe the Red Wings won’t suck soon. Even though he went to school in Columbus Ohio, he could never bring himself to be a fan of the Blue Jackets. The other is Jacob (who won’t tell us his username, probably because he leaves creepy stalker comments all over porn subreddits). He’s the guy who came up with the advanced stats criteria above. He first got into the NHL when the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg and became a Jets, so he just sided with the newest team at the time. Because Jacob isn’t a complete sadist, he jumped off the Jets wagon and has now been a Predators fan for all of 2 months. Convenient timing and totally not a bandwagon move.
TLDR: Math happened and an algorithm was made. Hockey friends will help me assign values that are somewhat in-between subjectivity and objectivity.
The Stakes
I am putting my money where my math is. Whatever team wins the algorithm scoring, I will purchase some fan gear at the end of the night. Maybe just a t-shirt, maybe a jersey, maybe a full blown mascot costume. That largely depends on how many beers I drink with the guys while scoring this. It also depends on how much I think my wife will harm me if I spend like $200 (Maybe I can make an algorithm for that as well. Beers consumed vs dollars spent vs doghouse potential, find the optimal break-even point). The two other guys are here not only to advise me in scoring of criteria I may not know, but also to keep me honest. I will buy merchandise and be a fan of whatever team wins, NO MATTER THE RESULT. Would it pain me to be a Hawks fan based upon my past experiences? You bet your ass it would, but the numbers don’t lie. And let’s be honest, my friends would have a laugh seeing me wearing a Hawks jersey. So whatever happens, that’s what happens. No going back to fudge numbers. This is it. If I feel ambitious (ie, not lazy) I may even do the stereotypical write a letteemail to the team, explaining the situation, and beg for merchandise asking for a letter back.
TLDR: Gonna buy some gear when finished, no matter who wins.
Conducting the Algorithm
At the start of the event, we decided that it would be better to hide to total column until the very end. Once a criteria had been fully scored, we also hid that column. This would help prevent bias by being able to glance at the totals as started tallying.
The Result and Closing Notes
Before I share the results: I am certain that there will be disagreement on some of the scoring. I just want to take a minute and say that we scored everything to the best of our abilities. There was a lot of internal arguments for some of the scores, but all reached compromise. For things that we were uncertain, we researched between this subreddit and a few other hockey websites/forums. We know that these scores won’t please everyone. If you want to conduct this experiment on your own, I’d love to help you out!
You can choose to uncover the spoiler here, or you can open up the google sheet just below that.
I am pleased to announce that in my inaugural season of hockey fandom, I will be taking my talents to the Toronto Maple Leafs!
Here is a link to the google sheet with league-wide results, sorted descending in final scoring. Be sure to hover over some of the cells to see detailed notes.
I hope you all have enjoyed this post, and I look forward to becoming more knowledgeable and enjoy this great sport!
EDIT: Whew, I struck a nerve huh?. Listen, I'm new. I know some of you had your team-pride hurt by my rankings. I can admit that some of it was inaccurate and this is not a perfect method. There probably is no perfect method to picking a team. I'm sure a lot of you are coming from a good place and are wondering on some of my scores. Even calling me stupid may be fair (I mean, I am new), but sending me PMs from throwaway accounts wishing harm upon me is a bit much, no?
EDIT 2: https://youtu.be/ryZJWLMe1ag
EDIT 3: Is only game
submitted by AlbinoMonster to hockey [link] [comments]

Betting on college football games: the basics from your CFB gambling sub /r/CFBVegas

Hello my fellow college football fanatics! I run a small niche subreddit called /CFBVegas where we talk about betting on college football games. I've found that a lot of people don't understand some of the numbers and terms associated with sports betting so I want to go over the basics.
Team Point Spread Moneyline O/U
Texas +13.5 +400 42.5
Oklahoma -13.5 -350 42.5
That is a basic gambling box that tells you everything you need to know about what you're betting on. Oklahoma has negative numbers in the point spread and moneyline boxes which lets you know that Vegas thinks Oklahoma is the favorite to win the game. Underdogs will always have positive numbers with a plus sign in the front. We'll use this box for reference.
Point Spread
Betting on the point spread means you're betting on the final score of the game, not necessarily the winner. It's possible to win by betting on the team that loses. There are two ways to look at a point spread bet. If you bet on Oklahoma (the favorite), you're betting that
  1. Oklahoma will win the game even if you took 13.5 points away from their final score; or
  2. Texas will lose the game even if they start the game with a 13.5 point lead
If you bet on Texas (the underdog), you're betting that
  1. Texas would win the game if you add 13.5 points to their final score; or
  2. Texas will win the game regardless of the final score
Moneyline
This is a straight up bet. If you bet on Oklahoma, you're betting on them winning the game. If you bet on Texas, you're betting on them winning the game. Do you see those large numbers listed in the moneyline column? That lets you know what you stand to win based on a $100 bet. Oklahoma is the favorite listed at -350 meaning you have to bet $350 in order to win $100. Texas is the underdog listed at +400 meaning you could win $400 with a $100 bet. Betting on the underdog is a higher risk but with a higher reward. You have to put up more money on the favorite to get a higher return which is why most people bet on the point spread due to odds closer to 100.
The same negative and positive number concept applies to the point spread. If Oklahoma's point spread bet had -110 next to it, that would mean you have to bet $110 to win $100. Much better reward than betting on the moneyline but riskier because it depends on the score rather than the outcome.
O/U
This relates to the point total. Outside of prop bets, you won't bet on individual team totals but rather the game as a whole. 42.5 is your baseline and you have to bet whether or not the final total will be over or under 42.5 points.
Prop Bets
These are bets on certain things that may happen in a game. Popular bets you will see include who scores the first points in a game, what kind of score happens first (touchdown, field goal, safety, pick 6, etc), whether or not a team scores unanswered 3 times in a row, total number of turnovers, etc.
Parlay
This is a bet on multiple games. Low risk but high reward. If you really think you know how the day is going to turn out then you could do a parlay rather than betting on individual games. Parlays allow you to use the winnings from one game to bet on another and then use those winnings to bet on another! What's the catch? All games have to win otherwise the parlay collapses and you lose. A parlay betting slip on point spreads could look like this
For you to win the bet, all 4 teams have to win with their respective point spread. The winnings of the Texas game would be used to bet on Boise State and those winnings would be used to bet on Washington State and so on. A $5 bet would get you $61 and a $100 bet would get you $1220.
Play It Safe
If this is something you find interesting then you could do what I do and set a limit every season. Every year I put up $100 and nothing more. If I lose it all during week 1 then I'm done. Last year I got up to $1000, lost $800, then got back to $900 thanks to TCU beating Baylor. I immediately cashed out because I had used up all of my luck that year. If you have a gambling problem or know someone with a gambling problem please call 1-800-522-4700.
Enjoy! Hope to see yall around on /CFBVegas and good luck betting
submitted by azwethinkweizm to CFB [link] [comments]

My Girlfriend And I Explored A Serial Killer’s Old Apartment

Serial killers have always fascinated me. Ever since I was a kid, I've found myself both scared and intrigued by psychos like Ted Bundy or Clementine Barnabet. And as I grew older, my interest only increased.
I was from Atlanta. Growing up in lower-class Latino neighborhoods, I'd seen crime all the time. I saw gangs, drugs, violence. Basically a first-hand glimpse into real-world terror. Life wasn't always perfect. Not when I had no siblings and only my skinny mother to protect me. By thirteen, I was bitter. Angry. I didn't want sappy bullshit to cheer me up. I wanted something darker. More realistic. So in time, serial killers became my hobby.
All the while, my mom fought hard as a single mother against the plights of life. And she won. Now I just had to make sure her victory wasn't for naught.
So here I was. I, Michael Sanchez was on the verge of being the first college graduate in my family. Just one more semester and I'd be done here at Georgia State. My bachelor's degree in English complete. I really wanted to be a writer. And you guessed it, a true crime writer. My capstone project was to even be a basis for my first book: an exploration into the homes of Georgia's most infamous serial killers. Yeah, I kinda got the idea from the 1993 movie Kalifornia.
By the time Christmas break rolled around, my girlfriend Amy and I had already visited close to ten of these "homes." All around Georgia. From Atlanta to Cordele. But now we were going further South than ever before. Almost to the Florida line: Stanwyck, Georgia.
For a relatively small town, Stanwyck had its fair share of violence. Maybe the highest murder rate per capita in the entire state. We were there to check out two particular locations: Jack Bates's old house and a derelict apartment building called Sunnyside.
Sunnyside was a shambling two-story eyesore. Hell, I think it only had four "apartments" for rent. But the place was home to more than just roaches: it was also home to Clay Fowler. A bigot, a rapist. And murderer. The Stanwyck Slayer as he was called by the press.
Fowler was thirty-five by the time Apartment B was raided during the early-70s. Inside, police found the remains of all of his victims. Dozens of them found not as corpses or bodies, but just as pieces of flesh and organs.
All the pieces had been incorporated into his apartment's interior. They were sewn or nailed into all the furniture and walls. There was even a flesh-covered coffee table.
Like a deranged home decorator, Clay had used his victims for Apartment B's make-over. With the aid of his trusted fillet knife, he'd flawlessly blended the skin and bone into his home with meticulous precision. The cleanest apartment Sunnyside had ever seen. Everything was said to be so smooth and soft except for the occasional fleshy lump.
Clay had mostly been preying on children attending a nearby middle school. Most of his victims black. Considering his disgusting racism, Clay's location deep in the heart of Stanwyck's slums must've been a happy convenience for him. And like a monster of the mornings, he'd usually abduct the kids around dawn. Additionally, he'd also kill whichever adults got too close to Apartment B. Even a couple of his own neighbors from Apartment A.
From what I'd read, police were criticized for not investigating as thoroughly as they should've. An all-too-common reality whenever minorities and lower-class citizens went missing... something I was used to growing up in my poor neighborhoods.
Ultimately, Fowler got sentenced to life without parole. And to this day, The Stanwyck Slayer is still rotting behind bars.
I imagine most of y'all are probably wondering what the Hell I got out of exploring the homes of assholes like Fowler. Honestly, these journeys weren't all about my project. They satisfied my passion. My obsession. Just being in these morbid locations grounded the tragedies for me. They painted historical markers for the murderers and their victims. And ultimately, I viewed them as symbolic gravestones for such horrible crimes.
So on December twentieth, Amy and I left my mom's place. I promised to be back by Christmas Eve at the latest. After all, I'd never miss the holidays with mama. Plus, I was gonna bring her back a Stanwyck souvenir like I always did on these trips.
The pretty drive was a four hour journey through the rural American South. Amy and I had a blast like always. She considered it an early Christmas present for me, and I couldn't ask for anything better.
We were a quirky but cute couple. Both of us black-haired and brown-eyed Latinos. Both of us with hipster haircuts and eccentric clothes. Both of us from tough poor neighborhoods. But Amy was much tougher than me. Not to mention more muscular compared to me and my developing beer belly...
We'd bonded in American Lit over Edgar Allan Poe. Two outsiders in a college where everyone else considered us weird as fuck. But we didn't need them or the party scene. We had each other. Horror movies. And our shared interest in serial killers.
By four o'clock, we reached Stanwyck. I wouldn't say the town was tiny nor big. Just an average All-American city. A Wal-Mart and a great high school football team. A high school team that'd just won a state championship too.
Plus, the city's Christmas lights were glorious. Like a holiday Vegas. Such a warm greeting for a town notorious to all us true crime enthusiasts like Amy and I. There were the clean city streets. The cute country homes. The countless fast food chains... overall, Stanwyck just looked comfortable.
However, the closer we got to Sunnyside, we noticed the gradual shift from pleasant Stanwyck to downtrodden slummy Stanwyck. West Stanwyck, to be exact. The area was more industrial rather than scenic. And with it, came a conglomeration of lower-class neighborhoods and public housing. Sunnyside Apartments amongst them.
The roads got bumpier. The houses became more unappealing. The Christmas lights now resembled shabby hand-me-downs. West Stanwyck felt like a safer incarnation of the mean streets Amy and I had grown up on.
Soon, we passed the middle school. And what a brick mess it was.
A faded sign out front read: West Stanwyck Middle School. Home Of The Owls.
The sign's owl caricature would've been more at home in a 1960s cartoon. So would the school for that matter. Much like the west side's Christmas lights, Stanwyck Middle resembled yet another indifferent hand-me-down from the city.
And the neighborhoods around the school weren't much better. Almost all public housing. All full of poverty and urban decay. Small town America's rendition of my inner-city ATL Hell.
In a few blocks, we finally reached our destination and pulled up into Sunnyside's ruptured parking lot. My Toyota was the only car here. No nearby neighbors save for a shack or two. A Stanwyck Middle School bus stop was right across the street... yet another unfortunate convenience for Fowler.
Woods of tall trees and spiraling ivy were on all sides of the two-story building. The property long overgrown. Almost as if Sunnyside had become a dark forest in the middle of town.
The apartment's white stone structure was about as appealing as a funeral home. Once I saw the rickety metal stairway, I was glad Apartment B was on the ground floor.
Even in the early evening, I found it strange there weren't any cars or people around. As if the abandoned Sunnyside had been quarantined from the rest of town. Even a black eye for this lower-class neighborhood.
Holding hands, Amy and I walked toward B. Both of us struggled to stay warm in our hoodies. The harsh breeze about as vicious as Fowler's fillet knife.
We were ready for our "inspection." She had the camera. I had my iPhone out, ready to type down my thoughts. Well, Amy and I's thoughts. In many ways, this was our project.
I pulled my hoodie in closer. A weak attempt to stave off the bitter cold.
As we passed Apartment A, I stole a look through its large windows. I could see stray furniture inside. Even trash and cigarette butts on the wool carpeting. Regardless of the tacky color, the room's blue walls looked fresh rather than ancient.
"Exciting," Amy murmured.
"I know," I said. I squeezed her hand like an excited kid clinging to their parent before entering their first haunted house. "I bet they probably couldn't clean all of it."
Chuckling, Amy gave me a light punch. "That's terrible, Michael!"
"I mean it'd be pretty damn tough. The bitch had people everywhere."
"Even sewn into the couch, right?"
Like a confident professor, I looked right at her. "Correct."
We stopped at the black door. A crooked letter B hung on it. Scratches and chipped paint accompanied the rusty doorknob. Cracked glass was on all the nearby windows. Somehow this place was never rumored to be haunted, I realized.
Amy took a pic of the door. She flashed me a smile. "You ready?"
"Yeah," I replied. Cautious, I reached toward the door. Then hesitated. Even in the daylight, trespassing always got me nervous. I stole a look around us... even though I knew not a soul was around. And deep down, I knew no one would care anyway. Not even small town cops.
"I got it," Amy quipped.
Turning, I saw her go ahead and snag the doorknob.
To our surprise, the knob moved with effortless precision. One smooth turn and Amy let it creak open.
"Well, that was easy," I commented.
Grinning, Amy snapped a photo of me.
I couldn't help but smirk.
Using the camera, Amy waved me inside. "After you, sexy."
From there, we entered Apartment B. The front door slammed shut right behind us in a ferocious flourish. Of course, I jumped. And of course, Amy laughed her ass off.
"You already scared?" she teased.
I threw up my arms. "We're only in the home of one of Georgia's most prolific serial killers."
"Not our first time, Michael."
Amused, I hugged her close and gave her a kiss.
"Come on," I said. Then we got to work.
Even with all the lights out, sunshine beamed in through all the windows to light the place up like a stage. Not that there was much to light up.
Most of the apartment was a big living room. There was an old torn couch. A few blankets strewn about. Even a bulky T.V. No flesh was on any of this, of course.
Plenty of stains and trash covered the scruffy carpet. Not to mention the carpet was more ruptured than the parking lot.
A small kitchen was connected to the living room. Just an oven and a tall fridge. Not even room for a damn table.
Expecting a cold cave, I was surprised by the room's cozy warmth. As if all the squatters had set up a fireplace for the holidays.
But I could still feel the isolation in here. Even in the city limits. Apartment B was a lonely place. All ugly blandness inside. And all ugly poverty outside. I couldn't help but be reminded of my old neighborhoods. The places mama and I used to live...
I bet Fowler spent plenty of long nights in this room. Both from killing and out of boredom. There was seclusion in Apartment B's walls. Maybe being trapped in here was the final push toward The Stanwyck Slayer's killing spree? Then I realized an even creepier thought... what if Fowler was planning the murders all along? Specifically against the black race he hated. This wouldn't be a lonely place then, but a coveted spot for his evil.
As she took photos with the artistry of a SnapChatter-turned-crime-photographer, Amy pointed toward the walls. They were blood red rather than blue.
"I guess they painted it that in case they missed anything," she joked.
Smiling, I nodded. "Wouldn't surprise me."
Stopping near the T.V., I saw that all the walls were red. I knew it was paint but still felt like Amy and I had stumbled upon a recreation of the scene shocked officers had found in here over forty years ago. Red walls made of Clay's victims' flesh and blood. Not to mention the human smorgasbord that was his furniture. This was Ed Gein in overdrive.
Like an intense reporter, Amy took countless photos. And I did my best to type up notes on my phone.
Turning, I noticed a tight hallway led from the living room to a few closed doors. I figured a bedroom and bathroom. The hallway resembled a claustrophobic tunnel... claustrophobic just like the rest of this shithole apartment.
Stopping near me, an excited Amy pointed toward a shelf standing by the couch. One of the ripped-up sofa arms had obscured the sight. "Hey, check that out!" she said.
Intrigued, I followed her over to the shelf.
On top of it stood two modest picture frames. Through the cracked glass, each frame showed a lesbian couple in their mid-30s. Attractive but clearly lower-class. Grungy clothes and hairstyles. Countless piercings. The taller one was a white girl with green eyes and long blonde hair, the other an African-American with a sexy fohawk.
"Who are they?" Amy asked.
"Probably the last renters," I said.
Amy took closer shots of both pics.
Smirking, I looked back at all the red walls. Now that I was this close, the paint did look quite fresh. "Probably back when rent was one-hundred a month."
Laughing, Amy confronted me. "Even that's too much."
Through the windows, I saw the sunlight fading into night. The apartment was getting darker. And creepier. Just how Amy and I liked it. Like a morbid museum that retained a curious mystique by day but became fucking terrifying once the lights went out.
"Come on," I said. With that, I led the way toward the hallway. Toward those doors.
Amy stayed close. Like a constant soundtrack, I kept hearing her camera go off.
"You think we'll find anything?" she asked.
I flashed her a grin. "I sure hope not."
The hallway was even darker than the living room. No windows for comfort. Like we were going further within the cave that was Apartment B.
Both doors were black and looked older than slabs of stone. The knobs long conquered by rust.
I snagged the first one, but it was locked. Stunned, I kept turning the knob to no avail. "What the fuck..." I muttered.
"Why's it locked?" Amy asked, incredulous.
"Weird..."
The entire apartment got darker and darker. As if Sunnyside Apartments was getting near closing time. Yet Apartment B was still warm. Sure, the shitty building was shelter from the cold... but this was constant heat. There was no cool breeze seeping in or a dominant draft for that matter.
"I wonder what the last tenants were hiding," Amy quipped in a Crypt Keeper tone.
Grinning, I looked at her warm smile.
"Hey, we can dream, right," she commented.
"Why not." Ready to explore, I grabbed the other doorknob. But it wouldn't budge. Both doors were locked tight.
Annoyed, I pounded on the hard door. The hits hurt me more than anything. Like I was banging on concrete.
"Fuck!" I yelled as I drew my hand back.
Chuckling, Amy pulled me back. "Nice try, doofus."
I confronted the door, frustrated I couldn't see what secrets lied behind it.
"I think there's a window out back," Amy said.
With the sudden fright of a blaring police siren, the front door swung open.
"Oh fuck!" I exclaimed.
Scared shitless, Amy and I turned to see a couple enter from the dark night. Two laughing females. Their drunken laughter reminiscent of hyenas.
I felt Amy's nervous hand grab my shoulder. Full of dread, I wrapped my arm around her and pulled her in close. There we stood in the dark like uneasy soldiers.
One quick flick and the living room lights cut on. Loud, humming bulbs illuminated the apartment like a clinical lab.
The two girls were the lesbian couple from the photos. The strange couple. In addition to the piercings, they wore punk clothing. Ripped jeans and tee-shirts. Tight black leather jackets.
The fohawk girl carried two large brown grocery bags. Overfilled bags. Like an All-American family's shopping spree gone mad.
Still chuckling, the blonde woman stumbled over toward the kitchen. Neither woman had seen us yet.
My mind was at a panicked blank. What the fuck were we gonna do?
Apparently, Amy had an idea. Stepping away from me, Amy approached the two women.
"I'm sorry," Amy said, her voice apologetic yet strong.
I followed after her. Yeah, I felt weird, but I wasn't gonna let my gf go alone.
Surprised, the fohawk girl flashed us an amused smile. "Oh, hi there." She placed the grocery bags on the couch.
I heard the fridge opening in the kitchen. The sound of drinks and food being pushed around.
Together, Amy and I stopped in the living room. Awkward as always. Like we'd crashed an upscale party rather than just broken into a shitty apartment.
"Shit, we're so sorry!" Amy went on, doing her best to suppress her unease. "We didn't know anyone lived here."
Holding a can of PBR, the tall blonde stopped next to her girlfriend. A wicked smile dominated the blonde's haggard face. "Well, look what the cat drug in."
"I know," her girlfriend said. "We've got visitors."
"Pretty ones too." The blonde took a long sip, savoring the cheap booze. The couple's smiles were confident but warm. Like proud hostesses.
Keeping her cool, Amy took a calm step toward them. "I'm sorry. We came here because we heard this was where The Stanwyck Slayer lived."
The blonde's bright eyes lit up. "Oh. Clay Fowler, right?"
"Yes."
Gathering my nerves, I stopped next to Amy. "Yeah, this was his apartment, right?" I asked. "Apartment B?"
"Oh yeah," the blonde went on. She took another compulsive sip like it was a dose of prescribed medicine. "Mrs. Barrymore warned us about it when we moved in."
"Our landlord," fohawk chimed in.
Amy and I released nervous chuckles.
"Warned y'all?" I joked like an anxious comedian. I stole a glance around the room. "He's not still here, is he?"
The blonde laughed. "No, not at all, man. That bitch has been gone."
Grinning, her girlfriend motioned toward Amy's camera. "What's that for?"
"Y'all trying to do an interview?" the blonde teased.
"Like a documentary," fohawk added.
Hiding her nerves better than I ever could, Amy held up the camera. "We were just taking pictures. Honestly, we really thought Sunnyside was abandoned."
"Yeah," I added. "We're trying to explore the houses of different famous serial killers."
"No shit!" the blonde exclaimed.
Excited, her girlfriend hit her shoulder. "That's so cool!"
"I'm honestly surprised no one's been around here before," I said. "I mean this is like history."
"Mmm-hmm," Amy said.
Like a smug celebrity on a photo shoot, the blonde draped her arm over her girl. One hand on her girlfriend, the other on a PBR. All that was missing was a cigarette. "Well, we don't worry about it too much," the blonde stated. She exchanged smiles with fohawk. "Rent's cheap and we're together." Her beaming eyes confronted Amy and I. "That's all that matters."
"I understand," Amy said. "Again, I'm sorry we barged in like this."
Like a pathetic apologetic suburban dad, I forced a chuckle. Clark Griswold himself would've cringed. "Yeah, I thought it was a little too warm in here to be abandoned."
Laughing, fohawk faced her partner. "Oh my God, did you leave the heat on again!"
The blonde waved her can toward the front door. "Shit, you're the one who left the damn door open!"
"Well, we should probably leave," Amy said. "I'm sorry about all this."
Eager, I joined Amy. "Yeah."
Using her PBR like a baton, the blonde kept us at bay. "Whoa, y'all ain't taking nothing now, are you?"
Her girlfriend grabbed her arm. "Babe-"
"No, I'm serious, Chris!" the blonde interrupted. She focused her stoic stare on us. "They were just messing around in our apartment."
"I promise we didn't," Amy said.
Chris wrapped her arm around the blonde. "You locked the bedroom remember?"
"True," the blonde admitted.
Trying to leave the awkward situation, Amy exchanged nervous looks with me. "Well, we really should get going."
But the couple didn't budge. Like a human blockade, they stayed in front of the doorway.
Chris's curious eyes stayed focused on us. "Fowler was the one who killed all the black kids, right? With a fillet knife or some shit?"
"Yeah, he's fucking terrible," I said.
Like a mob boss, the blonde took another cool sip. "So why are y'all so interested in him then?"
I felt the couple's stares pierce into us like daggers.
"Well," I stammered. Turning, I saw Amy's annoyed glare strike me with ferocity.
"It's for his project," Amy added.
"Yeah," I said. "I'm doing a book on serial killers. About their homes and houses and shit." I waved toward Amy. "She's taking the pictures and helping me."
Smiles cracked through the couple's stoic facades.
"Aww, how cute!" the blonde teased.
"Y'all know about Jack Bates too, right?" Chris asked us.
Amy grinned. "Of course."
"Yeah, we're gonna stop at his place next," I said.
Like a rebellious teenager that was too cool for school, the blonde let out a smug chuckle. "Aw, man. Plenty of weirdos in this town."
"Not even counting us," Chris joked.
"Yeah, that's what I've heard," I said.
With forceful energy, Amy pulled me toward the door. "Well, it was nice meeting y'all," Amy said to the couple.
"Oh yeah, you too," Chris replied. Unlike the blonde, Chris stepped out of the way. Just enough space for us to clear out of Apartment B.
Turning, I faced the couple. "I'm sorry about everything."
"No, you're fine," Chris said in a warm tone. "Bye."
Like a confident cop, the blonde's eyes and smirk stayed on me. "Take care," she said with sardonic sharpness.
Amy and I stepped out into the furious cold. The temperature had dropped even further since we went into the apartment.
As if she were shutting us into a chest freezer, Chris closed the door behind us. The powerful effects of Apartment B's heater were now gone without a trace.
Desperate to stay warm, I hugged Amy close. "Well, that was fun."
"A little too exciting," Amy said with a laugh.
Together, we started walking back to my Toyota. The howling breeze kept hitting us in waves. Amy jammed her hands in her hoodie pockets. Camera included.
"I guess I'll have to do more research next time," I said. My eyes drifted over toward one of Apartment B's many windows.
"Naw, that's my bad," Amy said.
Not saying a word, I came to a horrified stop. The combination of the cold and my own extreme fear cemented me in place.
Startled, Amy looked at me. "Michael."
But I couldn't answer. My eyes were captivated by the sight inside Apartment B.
Through the windows, I could see the lesbian couple empty the grocery bags onto the couch like open Christmas presents.
Right on the sofa fell a grisly collection. Blood-red "gifts": severed human limbs and pulpy organs.
The two women looked excited and thrilled. Like bank robbers evaluating their stolen loot. Only this was stolen, slaughtered lives.
I felt Amy's terrified hand snatch my arm. Her grip colder than the December air.
Then when Chris and the blonde both looked up at us, their eyes looked colder than Death.
My soul became twisted in knots. Especially once the couple gave Amy and I those wicked smiles.
The two of them looked so happy. Even with the scattered gore all over their bodies and drenched across the ugly sofa. They had the enthusiastic spirit of Clay Fowler. And the enthusiastic evil of Apartment B.
"Come on!" the frightened Amy yelled through the cold.
I felt her yank my arm out of its socket. But it was the wake-up call I needed.
Snapping out of my frozen fear, I followed Amy toward the Toyota. All the way through the slicing cool air.
The door to Apartment B burst open like gunfire through the quiet night.
Scared, I turned and saw the couple run after us. Each of them held a long fillet knife. Just like Clay Fowler's weapon of choice. The couple's smiles looked more vicious than those long blades too.
"Shit!" I yelled.
"Keep going!" Amy demanded.
Amy's grip tightened on my arm, cutting off whatever blood flow the cold hadn't zapped from me yet.
As we passed Apartment A, I stole a look at the windows.
Through the cold air erupting from my lips, I saw a similarly horrific scene like the one I saw in Apartment B.
A middle-aged white couple spread out on the living room floor. Presumably the landlords: the Barrymores. Naked and laughing, they splashed around on the carpet. A carpet drenched in buckets of blood... as if the couple were making grisly snow Angels.
Like a persistent cab driver, Amy wouldn't let me stop for too long. Not that I wanted to. Not when I could hear the lesbian couple get closer and closer. Or when Mr. Barrymore's wild gaze made direct eye contact with my frightened eyes.
Finally, we reached the Toyota. Amy shoved me toward the passenger's seat. I felt the cold window hit my hands. Honestly, I was shocked my hands didn't explode like busted ice upon impact.
Amy hopped in behind the wheel. "Get in!" she yelled.
Terrified, I turned. All of Sunnyside was descending upon us.
I saw crazed couples running down the metal stairway. Their loud clanging footsteps sounded like a robotic army. Their frenetic movement made the staircase tremble in the wind. All of them were armed with the fillet knives. All of them glowered right at us.
And now the lesbian couple and the Barrymores were less than fifteen feet away. The Barrymores still nude and bathed in blood. Their fillet knives craving our flesh.
I heard the Toyota start like a motorcycle ready to race. And I was ready to get the fuck out of here. The smartest thing I'd done all day, or in my entire life, was give Amy those car keys before heading into Apartment B. Thank fucking God, I did.
Without further ado, I jumped into the passenger's seat. All I could do was stare out the window as Amy put the car in reverse.
The Sunnyside tenants got closer and closer. As did their glares. Their bloodlust. Their sharp blades.
Breathing heavy, Amy drove off with a furious mash on the pedal. And she never looked back.
I suppose I shouldn't have either... but I couldn't help myself. Like a trembling child, my wide eyes looked back at Sunnyside. At all the bizarre residents.
They gave chase down the street. And then finally, they dropped out of sight... we were finally out of their collective crosshairs. Amy and I were safe.
By this point, we had no interest in going to Jack Bates's house. Amy didn't even have to talk me into it. Shit, she'd even offered to still go there just for me. Just for my Christmas "present." But I'd had enough of the book for the holidays. Maybe in January, I'd feel up to exploring more... just damn sure not now.
We made one stop at a local gas station. There, Amy called the Stanwyck police and told them about Sunnyside. She begged them to go out there as soon as possible. On the phone, they tried to calm her down, but Amy was understandably not having any of that. They even tried to tell us Sunnyside had been abandoned since the early 90s... just like my research had led me to believe. But nonetheless, the dispatcher told us they'd send a few officers over there to check it out. Only Amy and I weren't sticking around to hear more. No fucking way.
Before leaving Stanwyck, I ran inside the convenience store and got mama her souvenir. A cute Bearcat coffee mug. Yeah, I know. A pretty cheesy mascot for such a dominant high school football team. I gotta say it was unique though... plus, mama did love her animals.
Amy and I made it a straight shot back to Atlanta. With Christmas music rather than true-crime podcasts playing all the way... like we were a family looking at lights on December 24. Smiling, we sang along to all the cheesy lyrics. I guess narrowly surviving an attack from a band of murderers could make you a little sentimental. But through it all, Amy and I survived. And we'd be home for Christmas.
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