NFL Week 1 Monday Night Betting Preview: Odds, trends

NFL Week 1 Monday Night Betting Preview: Odds, trends, pick for Broncos-Raiders

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(DFAroto) Week 12 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 1

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-3

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4)

Colts ATS: 5-4-1 Texans ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 20.75 Texans 24.75

Colts

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Lonnie Johnson (OUT) S Justin Reid (OUT) S Mike Adams (OUT) S Tashaun Gipson (Q) CB Bradly Roby (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND): RB Marlon Mack (OUT) WR Parris Campbell (OUT) WR T.Y. Hilton (Q) TE Mo Alie-Cox (Q) TE Eric Ebron (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): T.Y. Hilton (25%) Eric Ebron (14%) Zach Pascal (12%) Jack Doyle (12%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Chester Rodgers (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jonathan Williams (47%, 14, 1) Nyheim Hines (36%, 6, 4) Marlon Mack (32%, 14, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Colt’s just keep on rolling, and those of you who listen to the Bill Simmons Podcast will recognize the Ewing Theory; it occurs whenever a team inexplicably gets better after the departure of their star player. Now, we can’t ever know if the Colts are actually better without Andrew Luck, but sitting tied atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans surely backs this theory up. Jacoby Brissett (upgrade) has been very good this year, throwing for 1,797-yards and 15 touchdowns, sporting a QBR of 51.7, which places him right behind Tom Brady - good for 16th best in the NFL. The Texans have been much better against the run than the pass this year, and were torn apart by Lamar Jackson last week (but who hasn’t been?), so look for IND to attack through the air. Brissett gets a slight upgrade in this good matchup, but he’s still better suited for 2 QB formats - although HOU does give up 21.6 FPPG to QBs, plus 26.1 to wideouts, making it an enticing matchup.
T.Y Hilton (upgrade) participated in today's walkthrough and is expected to make his return from a calf injury, his involvement further upgrades Brissett while downgrading the Colts auxiliary passing options. Zach Pascal, Chester Rodgers and Marcus Johnson are all shaky options with Hilton back, and none are recommended plays. Pascal is the best bet, but he has disappointed in recent weeks without Hilton, posting 2-26-0 and 2-17-0 receiving lines the last two weeks. Eric Ebron is also expected to suit up, relegating Jack Doyle to a low-floor TE2. Both tight ends have a habit of sapping each other’s value, but Ebron is the preferred play due to his nose for finding the endzone.
RB Breakdown
Stud running back Marlon Mack (OUT) broke his hand last week against the Jaguars and is expected to miss several weeks. That leaves Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines to shoulder the load. Many including us thought that Wilkins was the true handcuff to Mack, but as fate would have it, Wilkins was inactive due to injury when Mack went down, allowing Williams to break out. The backfield situation is now one to avoid, as it’s fully expected to be a three headed RBBC, with Wilkins and Williams splitting early down work, with Hines eating up the passing-catching work. The matchup isn’t a good one either, as HOU is ranked top-10 in Run DVOA and gives up 18.5 FPPG to RBs. It’s best to take a wait and see approach with these running backs to see if one breaks out above the rest.
Update
The Colts are going with Jonathan Williams (stash) as the starter for tonight's game, giving him more appeal than the other two options. That being said, it's extremely difficult to know if that means he'll be given the bulk of the early down work or if he's a starter in name only. Proceed with caution but definitely stash him if you can.

Texans

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (IND) Run DVOA:#23
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND): S Khari Willis (OUT) CB Shakial Taylor (OUT) CB Rock Ya-Sin (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (31%) Will Fuller (21%) Kenny Stills (14%) Keke Coutee (12%) Duke Johnson (10%) Darren Fells (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Duke Johnson (59%, 8, 2) Carlos Hyde (34%, 9, 1) Buddy Howell (7%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
I’ll be the first to admit that we got our score prediction wrong regarding the Texans/Ravens last week, at the very least we expected a close game, not the absolute spanking the Ravens delivered. The matchup doesn’t get easier this week; last time these two teams played, Deshaun Watson (downgrade) threw for 308-yards and a touchdown, but also tossed a pair of interceptions and ran for just 32-yards. Fantasy owners can’t justify sitting a quarterback of Watson’s caliber, but it’s best to keep expectations in check - IND allows just 16.3 FPPG to QBs and 21.7 FPPG to WRs.
Despite having a down year, DeAndre Hopkins aka Nuk, is the WR9 in PPR formats. He just isn’t having the explosion games we’ve become so accustomed to. He’s killed the Colts in the past and is due a big game, continue to get him active in all lineups. Will Fuller is expected to play but make sure he’s active before the game starts, and if he returns, this will bump Keke Coutee to the bench. The last time all the wideouts were healthy it was Kenny Stills in the slot, with Fuller and Nuk on the outside (Rotoworld). Either way, if Fuller is active both he and Stills are boom-or-bust WR4 options. They likely need to hit on a deep ball to find any value. Coutee shouldn’t be in any lineups irregardless of Fuller playing. Both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins remain involved in the offense, draining both of their values. So far, Fells has been the better option due to finding the endzone, but he can’t be trusted as more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
Last week gave us a good preview of which running back would be on the field in situations the Texans were trailing, and it was unsurprisingly Duke Johnson receiving the higher snap rate than Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard). It’s likely that HOU faces a positive or neutral game-script tonight as the home favorites, meaning that Hyde will likely be heavily featured in the run game. Interestingly, even though IND Run DVOA is much worse than their Pass DVOA, they only give up 96.8 rushing yards per game and just 14.2 FPPG to RBs. Treat Hyde as a back-end RB2, it seems likely he finds his way into the endzone. Duke J can’t be trusted as more than a desperation RB3.
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Colts 21

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)

Browns ATS: 3-6-1 Dolphins ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Dolphins 16.75 Browns 27.25

Dolphins

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (Q) S Eric Murray (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): WR Gary Jennings (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeVante Parker (20%) Mike Gesicki (13%) Jakeem Grant (11%) Albert Wilson (10%) Patrick Laird (10%) Allen Hurns (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Kalen Ballage (70%, 14, 6) Patrick Laird (21%, 7, 6) Myles Gaskin (9%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The tank is still on in Miami even after winning a couple games. Instead of a being a shoo-in for the first pick, it’s looking like they’ll be top-3. Ryan Fitzmagic (downgrade) continues to sling the rock, and impressively threw for 323-yards with no scores and no interceptions against a very good BUF secondary last week. Either way, he does not need to be considered as a fantasy option.
Devante Parker has continued his breakout, albeit about 3 years too late for most fantasy owners to get behind. Parker has a solid shot to make his preseason goal of 1000- receiving yards, and as mentioned last week, MIA has a very favorable schedule moving forward for wideouts (CLE, PHI, NYJ, NYG, CIN). He needs to be owned in all formats. Jakeem Grant showed out last week, rushing for a touchdown and returning a kickoff for another. That kind of production can’t be relied upon, but he does have a penchant for big plays and appears fully healthy - he’s looking like the preferred flier over the likes of Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson. At one point it looked like Mike Gesicki may carry value the rest of the season, but it’s hard to get behind any MIA player and he completely busted last week with a 4-18-0 receiving line. Still, he has at least six targets in three consecutive games so he warrants some consideration, but he’s best suited as a TE2.
RB Breakdown
The good news is that Kalen Ballage (downgrade) salvaged his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown. The bad news is that he ran for just 9-yards on 9 carries, adding another 8-yards on 5 receptions. He’s a desperation RB3 that can’t be recommended in any format. Fellow running backs Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin aren’t seeing the volume right now to be considered in any format.

Browns

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): S Bobby McCain (Q) DE Taco Charlton (Q) LB Raekwon McMillan (Q) CB Ken Webster (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): OT Kendall Lamm (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Nik Needham (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Odell Beckham (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Kareem Hunt (24%) Nick Chubb (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Nick Chubb (56%, 27, 1) Kareem Hunt (42%, 12, 8) Dontrell Hilliard (1%, 0, 0) D’Ernest Johnson (1%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week's win against PIT got ugly, culminating in DE Myles Garrett ripping off Mason Rudolph's helmet and hitting him over the head with it. No matter which way it’s looked at, losing Garrett is a big loss for CLE. Luckily, they face a MIA squad that ranks in the bottom half for both Run and Pass DVOA. Baker Mayfield tossed two touchdowns last week, but still hasn’t performed at the level that was expected this season.
Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade) has been a bust so far, but against MIA is a great matchup - they give up 22 FPPG to QBs and 25.4 FPPG to WRs. CB Nik Needham is expected to shadow OBJ, and it’s not an imposing matchup, Needham was destroyed last week by ‘Smokey’ John Brown to the tune of 9-137-1. It seems more likely that he booms than busts this weekend, and he’s a good bet to find the endzone for the first time since Week 2. Speaking of finding the endzone, Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) has found paydirt in three consecutive weeks. Consider Landry an upside WR2 for PPR formats in the great matchup. It appears that tight end David Njoku isn’t expected to return from IR this week, when he does return it’ll hurt Landry’s redzone usage. Demetrius Harris and Ricky Seals-Jones are desperation streaming options - MIA gives up 7.7 FPPG to tight ends.
RB Breakdown
MIA has been better against the run in recent weeks, a couple weeks ago they were ranked almost dead last in both Run and Pass DVOA, but they have moved up the ranks against the rush. It’s likely irrelevant, as Nick Chubb (upgrade) and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) should run all over them in a positive game-script. Start Chubb with confidence as an RB1 and consider Hunt an upside RB2 in PPR formats - MIA gives up 22 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 27, Dolphins 17

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)

Broncos ATS: 6-4-0 Bills ATS: 6-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16.5 Bills 20.5

Broncos

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DE Jerry Hughes (Q) DB Siran Neal (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): WR Tim Patrick (Q) OG Dalton Risner (Q) C Conner McGovern (Q) OT Ja’Wuan James (Q) RB Phillip Lindsay (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Courtland Sutton vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (15%) Phillip Lindsay (11%) Royce Freeman (11%) Tim Patrick (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Phillip Lindsay (64%, 18, 2) Royce Freeman (30%, 9, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After squandering a big early lead last week, the Broncos head to Buffalo hoping to right the ship. Brandon Allen (downgrade) got off to a hot start with a few big throws, but faded in the second half and was a big reason why the Vikings were able to make a comeback. The Bills have an above average pass defense - surrendering the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs - so any streamer appeal Allen might have had is nullified by the matchup.
His best weapon in the passing game, Courtland Sutton (downgrade), will face one of his toughest matchups of the season in a likely shadow matchup vs Tre’Davious White. Despite the tough individual matchup, and the fact the Bills have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to WRs, Sutton’s performance this season has earned him a long leash in season-long leagues. He’s worthy of a start as a somewhat lower ceiling WR2. The surprise for the Broncos last week was Tim Patrick (deep stash) receiving eight targets and going for 77-yards on four catches. While Patrick is worth consideration as a deep-league stash, this is not the week to take a shot on starting him. He’s no more than a dice-roll WR4/5. Rookie tight end Noah Fant (downgrade) had another solid outing with a 4-60 line on a team-leading 11 targets. The Bills are perhaps the toughest against TEs - fewest FPPG allowed to the position - so Fant deserves a matchup downgrade. However, his role as the second option in this passing game, combined with his elite after-the-catch abilities, make him a low-end TE1 at such a thin position.
RB Breakdown
Denver was unable to establish a consistent running game against the Vikings stout front seven last week, but the Bills have a weakness in this area so it may be a matchup to exploit. Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) soundly out-snapped Royce Freeman in this loss, and looks set to lead the timeshare again this week assuming he’s healthy. Although Lindsay hasn’t been as involved in the passing game of late, his total touches have consistently been higher than Freeman’s. The Bills have given up the 15th most FPPG to RBs, but have a bottom-tier rush defense by DVOA metrics. Consider Lindsay a lower-end RB2 this week due mostly to the low projected point totals, but the matchup makes him worthy of a start in most leagues. Freeman is only a handcuff for Lindsay owners at this point.

Bills

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Joe Jones (Q) LB Justin Hollins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: John Brown vs. Chris Harris Jr.
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): John Brown (26%) Cole Beasley (20%) Dawson Knox (11%) Devin Singletary (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Devin Singletary (74%, 16, 1) Frank Gore (26%, 12, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills finally won a game that came primarily due to passing game heroics, albeit against the league-worst Dolphins defense, but now return home to face an underrated Broncos defense. Josh Allen finished with a career-best passer rating last week, and finished with an excellent final fantasy line. His rushing ability was on full display, but his impressive passes to John Brown were what really had his owners gushing. This week the matchup is a bit tougher - the Broncos give up the third fewest FPPG to QBs despite only the 15th ranked pass DVOA. Allen may regress a bit in the passing department, and this game’s low projected final score suggest fewer TDs, but his rushing upside keeps him in the back-end QB1 mix.
As for the previously mentioned John Brown (downgrade), he goes from one of the cushier matchups in the league to one of the toughest. He’s likely to face Chris Harris Jr. in shadow coverage most of the day, and although Harris got dusted a bit by Stefon Diggs last week, he remains one of the premier coverage corners in the NFL. The downgrade is negated somewhat by Brown’s ability to break a big play at any time, so owners can continue to plug him in as a WR2, but keep expectations in check. Cole Beasley (drop) is the only other WR worth consideration for the Bills, but his inability to rack up high catch totals has sapped any potential PPR value. Although he’ll likely get an easier matchup than Brown, his value is limited only to very deep leagues as a WR4/5 with little upside. Dawson Knox (drop) has shown some flashes as a rookie TE in the league, but he too hasn’t been able to consistently produce for fantasy. He’s an extremely TD-dependent TE2 whose matchup - Broncos give up the 13th most FPPG to TEs - isn’t enough of an upgrade to warrant a stream.
RB Breakdown
With the Bills having so much success through the air last week, there were fewer opportunities for Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (drop) on the ground last week than would be expected in such a positive game flow. However, Singletary was far more efficient with his opportunities, and looks like he’s on the precipice of a breakout. The Bills offense has struggled to put up points against good defenses, but Singletary has been a consistently impressive force when given opportunities. The Broncos have a solid rush defense and give up the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs, but the potential for an increased role in positive game-script put the rookie in RB2 territory. Gore’s only value is as a hindrance to Singletary’s breakout, and he shouldn’t be owned in any league except as an extremely low-upside handcuff.
Score Prediction: Bills 20, Broncos 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Steelers ATS: 6-4-0 Bengals ATS: 4-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Steelers 22.75 Bengals 16.25

Steelers

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR Juju Smith-Schuster (D) RB James Conner (D) WR Diontae Johnson (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Juju Smith-Schuster (17%) Jaylen Samuels (16%) Diontae Johnson (15%) Vance McDonald (13%) James Washington (13%) James Conner (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jaylen Samuels (34%, 10, 6) Trey Edmunds (47%, 6, 3) James Conner (18%, 6, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Putting aside the fact that he was involved in an ugly brawl at the end of last week’s game, Mason Rudolph (downgrade) was simply horrendous under center last week. He threw four interceptions, and couldn’t seem to hit receivers that were further than five yards away from him (even that was a struggle). The matchup couldn’t be better - the Bengals’ pass defense is ranked 31st by DVOA and gives up the 3rd most FPPG to QBs - but that doesn’t move the needle enough to consider him in standard leagues. Perhaps in a 2 QB league there’s an owner brave enough to stream Rudolph in this matchup, but we’d recommend against it.
Another reason to avoid Rudolph in any format is that he will likely be missing top target Juju Smith-Schuster, although it’s not like he used him much in the first place. With Juju doubtful to suit up, and Diontae Johnson questionable to play as well, James Washington is the only name to keep an eye on. If both of those players sit, Washington could be a volume-based WR3 based on opportunity and matchup. However, owners should likely avoid the situation altogether, despite the favorable matchup. Vance McDonald may have a better shot of capitalizing on the opportunity, but he too has been victim to Rudolph’s struggles (and his own). McDonald would be a low-end TE1 if both players sit, if only due to the matchup and the bump in usage. Still, avoid this passing game if possible.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy owners were dealt another tough injury-related lineup decision last week when the Steelers took James Conner off the injury report prior to kickoff, only to see him leave the game with a re-aggravation of a shoulder injury he had apparently been dealing with all week. Conner is looking doubtful to suit up against the Bengals on Sunday, so the backfield will again feature Jaylen Samuels (upgrade PPR) and Trey Edmunds this week. Although Edmunds actually led the team in snaps, it was Samuels who got the majority of the touches, and managed to score a TD despite the ugly offensive performance. The Bengals are a favorable matchup - giving up the fourth most FPPG to RBs - but the state of this offense overall limits Samuels’ fantasy appeal somewhat. Still, if Conner is out, Samuels should see the requisite volume to belong in the RB2 ranks, especially in PPR leagues due to his passing acumen. Edmunds is not a fantasy option at this point.

Bengals

Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): AJ Green (D) WR Audent Tate (Q) WR Stanley Morgan (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (24%) Auden Tate (19%) Alex Erickson (11%) Tyler Eifert (10%) Joe Mixon (8%) Gio Bernard (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Joe Mixon (59%, 16, 3) Gio Bernard (52%, 4, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
If you decided to stream Ryan Finley (16 team 2 QB league only) last week because the Raiders have a porous pass-defense, you likely ended the day with a loss. The rookie was again unimpressive, despite a favorable matchup, and now faces the 5th best pass defense by DVOA metrics. He is an easy avoid in all formats and all league sizes this week. Finley will be without AJ Green (ankle) again this week, and likely without Auden Tate (concussion, neck) as well. That leaves Tyler Boyd (downgrade) as the lone survivor of what was once a somewhat fearsome WR corps, at least on paper. The Steelers are middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs, but they’ll be able to focus most of their attention on Boyd knowing he’s the only threat out wide.
After watching the Steelers shut down Cooper Kupp two weeks ago because they saw him as the most important target for Jared Goff, there’s reason to believe that’s how the Steelers will approach Boyd. He’s in the WR4 range simply due to his likely volume, but his QB situation and tough matchup keep him out of the top-36 and give owners a strong incentive to consider benching him. Alex Erickson and Tyler Eifert are not fantasy options at this point outside of extremely deep leagues. There simply isn’t enough juice in this passing game with the rookie under center. If the Bengals are to pull the upset, it will be through a game manager type performance from Finley, a strong running game, and an even more inept Steelers offense.
RB Breakdown
Despite their offense becoming even more inept after benching Andy Dalton, the Bengals have found some success in the running game with Joe Mixon (upgrade standard) the past two weeks. Against two straight solid rushing defenses over the past two weeks (BAL and OAK), Mixon has racked up 200 rushing yards and over 50 receiving yards. This is due in part to a renewed commitment to him and the volume he has received, but also seemingly a slight improvement from the offensive line and perhaps from Mixon himself to run with more vigor. The Steelers are another tough matchup - giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs - but with his current volume and obvious talent, Mixon should be viewed as an RB2 regardless. If Finley can improve even slightly from last week, it would give Mixon a chance to repeat his performance and snag another rushing TD along the way. Gio Bernard is simply a handcuff to Mixon at this point, but he should be owned by all Mixon owners, especially those with postseason aspirations.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 14
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Week 13 D/ST Scoring, 2017

Hello and welcome back!
I hope everybody’s Week 12 went well. This is the home stretch for those of us in a playoff hunt; I’m still in three leagues with a playoff spot up for grabs, and I’m sure most of us still reading here today are either still in the hunt, or looking for an edge to gain in Weeks 14/15/16. That will follow after the rankings.
Week 12 itself was fairly kind, and it marks the sixth week in a row where I would consider the results to be very much in line with the projections. Rank correlation for our model was 0.396, compared to FantasyPros ECR’s result of 0.412. It was the first week since Week 4 where our model was outperformed by ECR, and it was by a fairly slim margin at that.
The biggest culprit was the Cleveland Browns, which was by far the biggest miss of Week 12 (though perhaps not the most impactful miss). The most impactful miss was probably the San Diego Chargers, who kept up their recent run and the Cowboys’ recent struggle with a dominating performance on Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the model (barely) correctly selected Baltimore over Pittsburgh – small consolation to those who didn’t have the option and went with the Steelers anyway – and also more accurately identified Washington as a streaming option.
Like nearly every week, there were some big hits, some big misses, and a lot of garbage in between. The machine grinds on another week.
Week 13 D/ST Scoring
https://imgur.com/a/wOmEI
1 12.4 Jacksonville Jaguars
2 11.8 Los Angeles Chargers
3 10.8 Baltimore Ravens
4 10.4 Los Angeles Rams
5 10.2 Tennessee Titans
6 10.1 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 9.4 Chicago Bears
8 9.1 Philadelphia Eagles
9 9.1 Kansas City
10 8.8 New Orleans Saints
11 8.8 Dallas Cowboys
12 8.4 San Francisco 49ers
13 8.4 New England Patriots
14 8.3 Miami Dolphins
15 8.3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16 8.1 Oakland Raiders
17 8.0 Green Bay Packers
18 7.9 Denver Broncos
19 7.9 Detroit Lions
So many options this week!
  1. Jacksonville and Baltimore remain the cream of the crop for another week. Baltimore has gotten extraordinarily lucky with their schedule, facing a not-so-murderer’s row of backup QBs and garbage offenses. This week might be a little bit tougher, but they get the Lions at home, and Stafford has some injury worries of his own in Week 12. However, I am assuming that he will be fully good to go, and that the Ravens will be a start-worthy option regardless in Week 13. The Jaguars are also at home, and they get the Colts. Both starts are exceedingly obvious for anybody with access to one or the other, with the Jaguars getting the edge if you somehow have both available.
  2. San Diego gets a crack at the Browns at home, so of course they are obvious as well. I would start them in the same order presented above with regard to Jacksonville and Baltimore.
  3. The Steelers disappointed in Week 12, and although they get the Bengals on the road this week, it’s still a slam dunk tier 1 start. I would not overthink this one too much if I had access to the Steelers. The Bengals are still a bad offense, and they should come back down to earth a bit after a romp against Cleveland.
  4. The Rams, also on the road, are probably my least favorite of the ones discussed so far, but the Cardinals are an exploitable offense. This is the kind of game where you’d really wish your D/ST were playing at home, but so it goes. The Cardinals have been the 6th best matchup for opposing D/STs on the season, have conceded eight scores of 9+, and have never conceded fewer than 6 all season long.
  5. Among the top tier, that just leaves the Tennessee Titans. The same lowly titans that are in the bottom 3rd of fantasy D/STs, and the same Titans that gave up roughly 4 million points against the Texans in Week 4. This time, the Texans are running out the inimitable Tom Savage, who has quite possibly the worst resume among current NFL starting QBs. The Titans' defense is pretty bad, the Texans' offense might be worse, and the Titans come in as 1 TD favorites at home. Streamers probably cannot do better, but let’s see what other choices they may have just in case.
  6. The Chicago Bears are probably the best pivot if you don’t trust the Titans. The 49ers have not been as kind to opposing D/STs as you might think, entering the week as just the 13th best matchup for opposing D/STs before adjusting for strength of schedule. They have not officially named a starting QB as far as I am aware, but should finalize something within the next 24 hours or so. Either way, the Bears are probably a great streamer. They are the 10th highest scoring D/ST on the season so far, with six scores of 9+ and a nice stretch of 69 points in four consecutive weeks from 5-8. The game is at home, Vegas has the scoring total low and the Bears slightly favored. Not great, but certainly good enough. We do not have enough of a sample size of Beathard and Garoppolo to accurate parse the difference between them, so I would not recommend spending too much effort in trying.
  7. Philadelphia has been lights out on both sides of the ball lately, and they should probably be considered up near Jacksonville as being too good to let go. Get away from them this week if you can due to playing on the road (as road favorites in Seattle!), but not for anything extreme. They are an every week starter for most teams that have access to them, as needed.
  8. New Orleans was the other midseason darling, but they have not really kept up their pace. Losing their top two CBs for last week made things more difficult than they probably should have been otherwise, and if that changes in Week 13, they can be started with a little more excitement. Otherwise, the matchup is OK, they are playing in the Superdome, and they should probably be started in most 12-team leagues. I would not rush to the waiver wire to grab them though. So while "Who Dat" has turned more into "Whoa, Don't" as far as their D/ST has been concerned, but they still probably have enough talent to justify a look.
  9. Washington does not make the cut for the column, but they deserve a mention here. The Cowboys have been really bad, but this is yet another case where we must separate expectation from results. Were they expected to score 8 points per game over their last three? Should they have been? My own answers are no and no, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Again, we can ground ourselves with Vegas, which sets their team total at approximately 21 points for Week 13. If you think that Vegas is wrong by multiple TDs, well, I don’t know what to tell you. They haven’t built grand palaces in the desert by being habitually wrong by those kinds of margins. I do not see the Washington football team as being matched up well enough to exploit the Cowboys' recent deficiencies, and this is a great chance to bet on Dallas to show some amount of regression toward a healthier scoring output.
  10. Interesting that Dallas themselves rank high enough to consider for streamers. I don't have the fortitude to do so with my own money, but if your waiver wire is dire enough, it might be necessary. Certainly playing at home is a nice plus, and they could be a backup plan for anyone who swings and misses on claims for Tennessee or Chicago.
  11. Kansas City might be on the wire in many leagues and should be looked at on the same level as Chicago, at the very least. Their recent offensive disasters have really done a number on their floor and expectations both, and they're playing on the road against a (gasp) capable NYJ offense. Plenty of red flags, but the model likes them even still.
That’s enough for Week 13. Let’s look at future weeks. The strategy is very simple:
• If you have an every-week starter, which at this point is probably just Jacksonville, stop reading and don’t worry about pairing them with anything. The Jaguars get three consecutive home games and then an away tilt against the 49ers.
• The Eagles have good enough matchups in Weeks 13, 15, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 14. The Ravens have good enough matchups in Weeks 13, 15, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 14. This means you should not pair them with each other, but both can be a strong main D/ST.
• So can the Chargers, who have strong matchups in Weeks 13, maybe 14, and 16.
• Add to that the Steelers, who have strong matchups in Weeks 13, 14, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 15.
Week 14
Packers (@ CLE)
Kansas City (v OAK)
Texans (v SF)
Bills (v IND)
Bears (@ CIN)
Cardinals (v TEN)
Patriots (@ MIA)
Week 15
Vikings (v CIN)
Lions (v CHI)
Panthers (v GB)
Saints (v NYJ)
Falcons (@ TB)
Week 16
Vikings (@ GB)
Patriots (v BUF)
Bears (v CLE)
Lions (@ CIN)
Panthers (v TB)
Washington (v DEN)
Cardinals (v NYG)
Basic strategery:
  1. Start with Week 14 and make sure you have that covered. As you can see, none of the options listed above double up in Weeks 14 and 15, so you’ll have to pair unless you have a strong multi-week option available also.
  2. Once you have Week 14 covered, cover Week 15. Forget Week 16 if you have to, or grab a 14/15 option that is usable in Week 16 in a pinch. Chicago is great for that. Minnesota is too. Panthers as well. Same with the Lions. There are a lot more 15/16 teams than there are 14/16 teams, so keep that in mind when choosing.
  3. And that’s literally it. The list above is not comprehensive, and I might have missed something obvious or sneaky. If you see an option that plays at home against a decent matchup, don’t worry if I didn’t list them. Feel confident that they’re probably a reasonable choice.
And with that, I think we can conclude Week 13’s preview. Yet again, it will be a busy week for me, and hopefully the last one for a long time. After 12 years off and on at two universities, two community colleges, and across three different states, I’m finally finishing up my last week of coursework. I'm excited to level up from math student to underemployed mathematician, but I have to get through these last few exams first.
As always, if you see users in the comments with questions you feel confident answering, please pay it forward and help out. Someone will hopefully have your own back covered when you need help as well.
Best of luck in Week 13!
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NFL DFS - PreSnap Podcast Wagering Show - Joe & Mike break down the betting lines for Week 1

September 6, 2019
QuickLink | iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube
Summary:
Join Joe Pisapia and Mike Randle as they break down all the NFL Week 1 action from a betting perspective!
Show Rundown:
The PreSnap Podcast is brought to you by LineStar - the top rated Sports Analytics app on the market.
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[Game Preview] Week 17 - Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Philadelphia Eagles(13-2)

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
It wasn't pretty, but at the end of the day a win is a win and the Eagles were able to pull one out against the Oakland Raiders in week 16 to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs to ensure the road to the Super Bowl comes through the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles will look to stay undefeated at home and against the NFCE in a meaningless game against the division rival Dallas Cowboys as the roles are reversed from last season. On the the flip side the Cowboys will be playing for pride and possibly Jason Garrett's job as in the season finale. The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention last week with a loss to the Seahawks as frustration boiled over between second year QB and veteran WR Dez Bryant after Dak's second INT of the game. Prescott has struggled recently throwing 4 INTs and zero TDs in his last two starts. The Eagles are expected to rest many starters on Sunday, but QB Nick Foles is expected to see the field in hopes of getting himself right after his extremely poor outing last week against Oakland. The team hopes to end the season on a strong note in the meaningless game as they will have a bye to start the first week of the playoffs and await their opponent.
General Information
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Date
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
10:00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 19°F
Feels Like: 6°F
Forecast: Partly Cloudy. Partly cloudy until afternoon.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 49%
Wind: NW 13 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Dallas by -2.5
OveUnder: 39
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 10-5, Dallas 7-7-1
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kenny Albert will handle the play-by-play duties and Ronde Barber will provide analysis. Kristina Pink will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 17 TV Coverage Map
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (41st season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Dallas Radio
Dallas Cowboys Radio Network Brad Sham returns for his 39th season in the Dallas Cowboys radio booth. Beloved by Cowboys fans, Sham's award winning play-by-play has provided the soundtrack to many of the most memorable moments in Dallas Cowboys history. Babe Laufenberg returns as the Network's full-time color analyst. A fixture on the sideline, veteran reporter Kristi Scales provides instant updates from the field.
National Radio
N/A
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Cowboys Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 81 (Internet 825) SIRI 135 (Internet 808)
XM Radio XM 81 (Internet 825) XM (Internet 808)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 81 (Internet 825) SXM 385 (Internet 808)
Eagles Social Media Cowboys Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: cowboys
NFC East Standings
Team Record Pct Home Away Div Conf PF PA Strk
Eagles(XYZ) 12-3 .867 7-0 6-2 5-0 10-1 457 289 3W
Cowboys 8-7 .533 3-5 5-2 4-1 6-5 348 332 1L
Redskins 7-8 .467 5-3 2-5 1-4 5-6 332 370 1W
Giants 2-13 .133 1-6 1-7 0-5 0-11 228 378 4L
[x]-Clinched Division [Y]-Clinched 1st Round Bye [Z]-Clinched Home Field Advantage
NFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Division Record
1 Eagles(XYZ) East 13-2
2 Vikings(XY) North 12-3
3 Rams(Y) West 11-4
4 Saints(W) South 11-4
5 Panthers(W) South 11-4
6 Falcons South 9-6
[W]-Clinched Playoff Berth [X]-Clinched 1st Round Bye [Y]-Clinched Division [Z]-Clinched Home Field Advantage
Series Information
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (65-52)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 30th, 1960 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Dallas Cowboys 25 - Philadelphia Eagles 27
Points Leader
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (2542-2329)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-1 against the Cowboys
Jason Garrett: 7-8 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Jason Garrett: Pederson leads series 2-1
Quarterback Record
Nick Foles: Against Cowboys: 1-3
Dak Prescott: Against Eagles: 1-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Nick Foles vs Dak Prescott: First meeting between the QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Cowboys lead the Eagles: 8-6
Record @ AT&T Stadium: Eagles lead the Cowboys: 6-4
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 4 - Cowboys No. 16
Record
Eagles: 13-2
Cowboys: 8-7
Last Meeting
Sunday, November 19th, 2017
Eagles 37 - Cowboys 9
Carson Wentz threw for two touchdowns and three 2-point conversions after Philadelphia lost kicker Jake Elliott to a head injury, and the Eagles all but wrapped up the NFC East with a 37-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in week 11.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday, January 1st, 2017
Eagles 27 – Cowboys 13
Carson Wentz threw for 2 TDs and 245 yards in a meaningless games as the Cowboys rested starters and Tony Romo threw the final TD pass of his career in the loss.
Click here to view the Video Recap Click here to view the Stats Recap|
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
11/19/2017 Eagles Cowboys 37-9
1/1/2017 Eagles Cowboys 27-13
10/30/2016 Cowboys Eagles 29-23
11/8/2015 Eagles Cowboys 33-27
9/20/2015 Cowboys Eagles 20-10
12/14/2014 Cowboys Eagles 38-27
11/27/2014 Eagles Cowboys 33-10
12/29/2013 Eagles Cowboys 24-22
10/20/2013 Cowboys Eagles 17-3
12/2/2012 Cowboys Eagles 38-33
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Cowboys Cowboys
2017 Weekly Matchup
Week 17 - Iron Rank Matchup
Week 17 - "Expert" Picks
2017 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Cowboys Season Stats
2017 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Foles 53 90 58.9 498 5 1 88.1
Wentz (IR) 265 440 60.2% 3296 33 7 101.9
Prescott 291 460 63.3% 3145 21 13 86.7
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Blount 164 729 48.6 4.4 2
Ajayi 70 408 58.3 5.8 1
Elliott 215 880 97.8 4.1 7
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 72 800 61.5 11.1 8
Bryant 66 814 54.3 12.3 6
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 9.5 37
Lawrence 14.5 35
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Bradham 88 61 27 1.0
Lee 93 63 30 0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Robinson 4 19
Heath 3 9
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
D. Jones 60 2734 62 45.6 40.6 18 5 1
C. Jones 58 2552 62 44.0 41.9 30 3 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 31 26 83.9% 61 39/42
Bailey 19 15 78.9% 56 26/27
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Barner 9 176 19.6 27 0
Switzer 23 586 25.5 61 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Barner 24 229 9.5 76 0 15
Switzer 23 244 8.7 83 1 8
League Rankings 2017
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Total Offense 375.5 4th 334.1 14th
Rush Offense 136.3 2nd 136.1 3rd
Pass Offense 239.2 12th 198.0 25th
Points Per Game 30.5 2nd 23.2 12th
3rd-Down Offense 42.9 5th 43.6 4th
4th-Down Offense 70.8 3rd 55.6 6th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 65.5 1st 60.8 6th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Total Defense 306.9 5th 324.7 11th
Rush Defense 75.9 1st 106.3 11th
Pass Defense 231.0 20th 218.4 13th
Points Per Game 19.3 6th 22.1 16th
3rd-Down Defense 32.1 3rd 44.2 30th
4th-Down Defense 23.5 1st 36.4 11th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 56.8 22nd 57.1 T-23rd
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Turnover Diff. +12 4th -2 T-19th
Penalty Per Game 7.3 T-25th 6.0 9th
Penalty Yards Per Game 60.9 23rd 58.3 18th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - Video – It was like a great Christmas present that was terribly wrapped. Nick Foles looked dreadful and the Eagles defense made some key mistakes in the first half, however they came up huge in the second half causing 5 turnovers including a key one late that led to a Jake Elliott 48-yard field goal with 22 seconds left to give the Eagles a 3 point lead. The Eagles defense added another late TD as Derek Barnett scooped up a fumble on a late ditch lateral and the Philadelphia Eagles clinched the No. 1 seed for the NFC playoffs with a sloppy 19-10 victory over the Oakland Raiders on Monday night.
Cowboys - Video – Dak Prescott's struggles finally caught up with him as the Cowboys as their 3 game winning streak and playoff hopes ended in a loss to Seattle Sunday. Dak Prescott threw two interceptions and the Dallas offense didn't score a touchdown despite the reunion with his backfield mate. Coleman gave Seattle a 14-9 lead in the third quarter when he reached down to catch Prescott's badly overthrown pass to Elliott and ran untouched 30 yards for a touchdown. The TD put Seattle in front for good and the Seahawks won a playoff elimination game against Dallas, beating the Cowboys 21-12 on Sunday in Ezekiel Elliott's return from a six-game suspension.
Connections
Eagles RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai is a native of Haltom, TX and went to Haltom High School. Vaitai played collegiately at TCU in Fort Worth, TX
Eagles S Jalen Mills was born in Dallas and grew up in DeSoto, TX and went to Desoto High School.
Eagles LB Jordan Hicks played collegiately for Texas.
Cowboys Safeties Coach Greg Jackson played for the Eagles during the 1994-95 season.
Cowboys Director of Pro Scouting Judd Garrett was selected in the 12th round of the 1990 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles but was released before the season began.
Cowboys Assistant Director of Video Stephen Gagliardino began his NFL career in 1995 as a ball boy with the Philadelphia Eagles when he was 16 years old, working training camp and game days at Veterans Stadium. He did that for four seasons before moving over to the Eagles video department in 1999, where he worked full time as an intern for three seasons (1999-2001).
Many Cowboys fans were born and raised in the Greater Philadelphia Area, however have no ties to Dallas nor have ever been to the city.
Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett was born in Abington, PA, located roughly 15 miles north of Philadelphia
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott played together at Mississippi State University when Prescott was a red shirt freshman.
Eagles OT Lane Johnson is from Groveton, TX and has family who are Cowboys fans including his grandmother who has told “Shut up, if you want to see 75” while she was routing for the Cowboys.
Eagles WR Mack Hollins and Cowboys WR Ryan Switzer played WR together at University of North Carolina the last 4 seasons.
2018 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Cowboys
OT Lane Johnson OT Tyron Smith (Starter)
QB Carson Wentz (Starter) C Travis Fredrick
TE Zach Ertz (Starter) OG Zach Martin (Starter)
G Brandon Brooks (Starter) DE Demarcus Lawrence (Starter)
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
FS Malcom Jenkins
C Jason Kelce (1st Alt)
DE Brandon Graham (1st Alt)
CB Jalen Mills (3rd Alt)
K Jake Elliot (2nd Alt)
ST Kame Grugier-Hill (2nd Alt)
General
Referee: John Parry
Philadelphia owns the best record in the NFL this season at 13-2. The Eagles’ 13 wins are tied for the most in single-season franchise history (also 2004, 13-3)
In Week 14 at L.A. Rams, Philadelphia clinched its 10th NFC East title and 25th all-time postseason appearance. The last time the Eagles clinched the division crown in Week 14 or earlier was in 2004 (clinched in Week 12).
In Week 15 at N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia secured a first round bye in the playoffs, marking just the sixth instance since 1970 that they accomplished the feat.
Philadelphia secured home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with their Week 16 win against Oakland.
Only five NFL teams have won 14+ games since 2008: 2016 Patriots (14-2), 2015 Panthers (15-1), 2011 Packers (15-1), 2010 Patriots (14-2) and 2009 Colts (14-2)
Philadelphia is 7-0 at home for the first time since 2004. The last time the Eagles finished the season 8-0 at home was in 1992. Overall, Philadelphia has gone undefeated at home just four times in franchise history, doing so in 1992 (8-0), 1949 (6-0), 1948 (6-0) and 1945 (6-0).
Philadelphia has scored 457 points (30.5 points per game), which ranks 2nd all-time in single-season franchise history, trailing only 2014 (474 points). Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Eagles are just 18 points shy of setting a new club record.
Philadelphia is aiming to go undefeated in NFC East games for the first time since 2004.
Philadelphia has scored 36 TDs on 55 red zone drives to lead the NFL in red zone TD efficiency (65.5%)
Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the NFL in total points scored (457), trailing only L.A. Rams (465).
Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the NFL in point differential (+168), behind L.A. Rams (+170). The Eagles are the first NFL team to score 450+ points (457) while allowing less than 290 points (289) since the 2012 Broncos (481-289).
Philadelphia owns the NFL’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense (136.3), trailing only Jacksonville (145.3). The Eagles have rushed for 2,000+ yards (2,045) for the first time since the 2013 campaign (2,566).
Philadelphia is just the sixth team in NFL history to record 2,000+ rushing yards and 38+ passing TDs, joining the 2011 Saints (2,127-46), 1999 Rams (2,059-42), 1998 49ers (2,544- 41), 1991 Bills (2,381-39) and 1987 49ers (2,237-44).
Philadelphia has converted 17 of 24 fourth downs, ranking 3rd in the NFL in fourth-down conversions (70.8%), trailing only New Orleans (85.7%) and Jacksonville (76.9%).
Philadelphia leads the NFL in rushing defense (75.9). The Eagles have allowed just 1,138 rushing yards this season, which is the club’s best mark since 1991 (1,136).
Philadelphia is just the seventh team in NFL history to register 2,000+ rushing yards while allowing no more than 1,200 rushing yards in a season, joining the 2010 Steelers, 2007 Vikings, 1969 Cowboys, 1964 Bills, 1946 49ers and 1940 Bears.
Draft Picks
Eagles Cowboys
DE Derek Barnett DE Taco Charlton
CB Sidney Jones CB Chidobe Awuzie
CB Rasul Douglas CB Jourdan Lewis
WR Mack Hollins WR Ryan Switzer
RB Donnel Pumphrey S Xavior Woods
WR Shelton Gibson CB Marquez White
LB Nathan Gerry DT Joey Ivie
DT Elijah Qualls WR Noah Brown
DE Jordan Carrell
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Cowboys
WR Torrey Smith OG Byron Bell
WR Alshon Jeffery OG Jonathan Cooper
DE Chris Long
DT Timmy Jernigan
RB LaGarrett Blount
CB Patrick Robinson
G Chance Warmack
QB Nick Foles
S Corey Graham
CB Ronald Darby
K Jake Elliott
LB Dannell Ellerbe
OT Will Beatty
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Cowboys
CB Nolan Carroll QB Tony Romo
DE Connor Barwin OG Ronald Leary
DT Bennie Logan OG Emmett Cleary
QB Chase Daniel DT Jack Crawford
CB Leodis McKelvin DT Terrell McClain
WR Dorial Green-Beckham CB Brandon Carr
DE Marcus Smith CB Morris Claiborne
RB Ryan Mathews SS Barry Church
FS JJ Wilcox
Milestones
QB Nick Foles (7251) needs 247 yards to move up to 9th all-time on the all-time Eagles Passing Yards list Norm Van Brocklin
QB Nick Foles (51) needs 4 TDs to move up to a tie for 9th all-time on the all-time Eagles Passing TDs list Norm Van Brocklin
TE Brent Celek (4,985) needs 15 more yards to reach 5000 career receiving yards.
TE Brent Celek (395) needs 5 more receptions to reach 400 career receptions.
TE Zach Ertz (3640) needs 7 yards to move up to 14th on the Eagles all-time receiving list all-time passing WR Jason Avant
DE Brandon Graham (38.5 – 7th) needs 1 sacks to move up to a tie for 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Andy Harmon.
DE Fletcher Cox (34 - 10th) needs 1.5 sacks to move into a tie for 9th all-time on the Eagles sack list with William Fuller.
S Malcolm Jenkins's (4) needs 1 more Interception for a TD to tie CB Eric Allen (5) for most Interceptions for a TD by an Eagles player. Jenkins is the only Eagles player to have a pick 6 in 3 straight seasons.
DE Demarcus Lawrence (23.5) needs 3.5 more sacks to move up to a tie for 10th on the Cowboys all-time sack list with Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher.
QB Dak Prescott (44) needs 2 TDs to move up to 7th on the Cowboys all-time passing TD list moving ahead of Eddie LeBaron.
RB Ezekiel Elliott (2511) needs 218 rushing yards to move up to 11th on the Cowboys all-time rushing yards list passing Felix Jones.
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge

WDB Matchups (CAPS = Shadow Coverage)

Eagles WRs vs. Cowboys DBs
Tm Name Pos H Wt Sp Rt L% S% R% TaRt C% YPRC Gr Adv
PHI Alshon Jeffery LWR 75 218 4.48 577 45 16 39 20 50 1.44 80.6 4
DAL Jourdan Lewis RCB 70 170 4.54 432 6 7 86 15 59 1.01 76.9
PHI Torrey Smith RWR 72 205 4.41 465 38 17 45 14 61 0.99 42.3 -45
DAL Chidobe Awuzie LCB 73 202 4.43 175 76 4 20 15 68 0.7 80
PHI Nelson Agholor Slot 72 198 4.42 502 7 86 7 19 67 1.58 79.8 29
DAL Anthony Brown Slot 71 196 4.33 488 67 20 13 15 58 1.12 53.7
Cowboys WRs vs. Eagles DBs
Tm Name Pos H Wt Sp Rt L% S% R% TaRt C% YPRC Gr Adv
DAL Dez Bryant LWR 74 220 4.52 541 49 23 28 24 56 1.65 74.7 10
PHI Ronald Darby RCB 71 193 4.38 232 6 3 91 21 58 1.5 81.6
DAL Cole Beasley Slot 68 180 -100000 417 5 88 7 15 62 0.83 65.9 -11
PHI Patrick Robinson Slot 71 191 4.46 464 6 80 14 18 55 1.28 90.7
DAL Terrance Williams RWR 74 210 4.52 431 39 9 52 18 71 1.41 52.2 -23
PHI Jalen Mills LCB 72 191 4.61 609 87 3 10 18 60 1.14 71
TE Matchups
Tm Name Pos H Wt Rt Bl% I% S% W% TaRt% F/R Cat% YPRC Gr Adv
DAL Jason Witten TE 78 263 571 11 37 54 9 16 0.3 77 1.11 50.5 -12
PHI Malcolm Jenkins S 72 204 261 8 0.15 64 0.48 83.9
PHI Zach Ertz TE 77 250 477 7 42 41 17 23 0.45 72 1.81 85.6 2
DAL Byron Jones S 72 199 159 11 0.14 29 0.33 81.9
OL/DL Matchups
Note: Pressure Rate and Yards Before Contact are projected numbers based on the starters' grades and are adjusted for injuries. All other stats are based on this season's data
Tm Pr% SCon YBCo Runs ins. 5 yd ln/gm TD ins. 5 yd ln% Pass B % Run B %
DAL (OL) 4.3 14 1.97 1.1 44 -12 12
PHI (DL) 7.2 19 1.37 0.6 33
PHI (OL) 4.4 16 1.69 1 31 -7 17
DAL (DL) 6.7 13 1.75 1 25
Matchups to Watch
Nick Foles vs. Competency
Just as we all expected the defense carried Nick Foles in a great defensive show down with the Raiders. Last weeks performance was largely the opposite of Week 15 leaving fans of the other NFC playoff teams salivating at the chance to play Nick Foles. If there is one word used to describe Foles in his career it would be inconsistent. The Giants and Raiders games are the two games you could point to when you want to describe what Nick Foles is capable of since there is usually no in between. The starters will play in this meaningless game against the Sean Lee led Dallas Sean Lee's and this is a good thing - at least for the offense. Foles needs all of the live reps he can get to be ready for the postseason. No one expects him to go out on the field and look like Carson Wentz. All we need Foles to do is to go out on the field in the post season and not look like Dak Prescott. Fact is, there were several plays open all game to different receivers for Foles to hit against the Raiders and he missed nearly all of them. No one wants to pile on a poor performance, but if Foles plays like he did against the Raiders in the playoffs the Eagles will be one and done faster than the 2016 Cowboys. This is the matchup to watch in this game. Continuity and familiarity will help Foles. Being used to the elements will help Foles. Sunday's game against Dallas will be very cold. While that is an effective equalizer for the Eagles moving forward it doesn't help if their own QB doesn't handle the elements well either.
Eagles Snap Counts vs. Necessity
There isn't really much to watch for in this game other than Nick Foles and the offense, but Pederson has come out and said that the starters will play in this game. Obviously, if the Eagles lose this nothing changes but we should be watching how the team plays, who plays, the amount of snaps they play, and if they make it through the game cleanly. I wouldn't expect the defensive line to see the full workload they are used to but we will see them play snaps. I think it'll be important for guys like Ellerbe and Darby to continue to get snaps and make sure they are still in game shape. There is also the possibility Sidney Jones will play. If there is a situation where you can get him meaningful snaps without having to worry about a games consequences this is it. Maybe the Eagles give some snaps to reserve tackle Will Beatty to ensure that he has some work under his belt in the event it is needed. Wisniewski could certainly use some snaps since he has missed the last two and a half games. All there is to watch is how long the usual cast of characters plays.
Doug Pederson vs The Future
Jimmy Kempski struggled with his key matchups in this game but did mention that it'll be interesting to see how Pederson calls this game. He's playing the starters; do you call a game to win? I think he'll need to be smart and not reveal anything too deep in the game plan that he'll use for Foles in the playoffs. This is really a stretch since there is no silver lining to Foles starting moving forward. Pederson should be smart about what he does Sunday so as to not tip their hand when the games count again.
Eagles vs. Expectations
This has been a magical roller coaster season for the Eagles. Many fans expected the team to improve and challenge for a playoff spot despite the more pessimistic projections from national writers and worthless redditors alike. Carson Wentz took the next leap to greatness this season and established himself as one of the upper tier QBs in the league. Doug Pederson proved he knew what he was doing despite a lot of skepticism from fans and writers alike. Dak Prescott stinks. There was room for optimism after last season. The Eagles went 7-9 with their most difficult schedule since NFL realignment. This doesn't take into account the number of teams the Eagles faced coming off a bye - consecutively - then playing a Falcons team coming off 10 days rest. That strength of schedule percentage doesn't take into account naming Wentz starter a week before the start of the season after trading Bradford. It doesn't take into account he was a rookie with a rookie head coach and a new staff and scheme. Yet, here the Eagles are. Through all the adversity this team has faced this season they sit 13-2 and the number 1 seed in the East. There is a chance that the Eagles could set the franchise record for wins if they beat the Cowboys on Sunday. The postseason was always going to be a challenge even with Wentz given the depth of the NFC but has become even more difficult to navigate without him. I would imagine there is less expected of this Eagles team from the outside since Wentz's injury than from before. The team should be used to that by now. The Eagles still have everything to play for and will need its best players to raise their level of play moving forward. The coaching staff will need to bring its very best in order to win moving forward. Week 17 is meaningless... but how the team prepares and carries itself isn't.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
submitted by Rsubs33 to eagles [link] [comments]

Offseason Review Series: Day 21 - THE Miami Dolphins

Team Name: Miami Dolphins
Division: AFC East
2016 Record: 10-6 (4-2 divisional record) Qualified for Playoffs with #6 seed
Hey guys, the wait is almost over and boy am I anxious. I hope to find you all in good health. I don't like to have long, lengthy introductions, so I'll keep this brief. The Dolphins had a cinderella type season in 2016, with rookie head coach Adam Gase turning our team around. I think he can continue his success and turn this team into a juggernaut, just as Bill and Brady ride off into the sunset. Enjoy!

Statistics

Offense
Total Rank Passing Rank Rushing Rank
Yards 5324 24th 3500 26th 1824 9th
TDs 41 14th 27 TDs 12th 14 15th
Turnovers +2 Diff. 13th 15 Ints 18th 26 Fum.(8 Lost) 11th
3rd Down % 37% 25th
Defense
Total Rank Passing Rank Rushing Rank
Yards 6121 29th 3875 15th 2247 30th
Points 380 18th 30 TDs 15th 12 13th
Turnovers +2 Diff. 13th 16 Ints 9th 16 FF(9 FR) 7th(17th)
3rd Down % 36% 4th

New Additions: Coaches

After a VERY successful rookie coaching year, Adam Gase kept his job and was able to retain most of his staff. The one lone exception was now Denver Broncos head coach, Vance Joseph. To replace him, we've promoted former LB coach Matt Burke. Burke has promised to keep the defensive scheme more or less the same, as they don't want to try to overhaul our defensive personnel to fit a new scheme like a certain out of work coach would do. Burke has so far been highly praised as a bookworm type with high intelligence. Our LB group last year was substandard, but that had as much to do with our injuries as scheme, so we'll see how he can do with a healthy defense and a few new toys.

Free Agents

Key Players Lost:
A big theme in miami this off season was retaining our players who knew our scheme. Thus, our list of important people riding off into the sunset is very short. We have a few other big names that left but they provided nothing to the team to be worthy of being mentioned. Special nod to Isa, who may have his career ended due to unfortunate injuries. Great safety, not going to be back this season, or possibly ever. Hope you have a full recovery dude.
New Faces in Miami:
Hayes and Thomas were acquired through trades for minimal assets. Thomas was a package deal with Albert, exchanging a 7th this year for a 7th next year. The rest were valuable signings with intent to be starters on our team at positions of need. The lone exception being TJ McDonald, who is currently slated to be suspended for the first 8 games of the season. The Dolphins see him as a potentially impact player once he is off his suspension. If Miami can repeat last year, perhaps he can help them advance in the playoffs?

Draft Picks

Our draft this year was VERY defensive heavy. After a rough year in 2016, our defense needed some new faces to take it up to the next level. Charles Harris is prone to be our new pass rush specialist for the years to come and joins a stacked group to learn from. Raekwon McMillan is a deeply desired injection of talent into our barren LB group. Cordrea Tankersley was a bit of a surprise, as most of us saw our DB group as our strongest group, but in round 3 for a national champion, he is considered a steal and hopefully can develop into the natural prototype we're looking for in DBs. Isaac Asiata is going to be the draft pick watch the most, likely, as we are in desperate need of talent to fill in the gaps of our offensive line. Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor will likely be directly competing for a roster spot. We have 2 DTs locked into the starting positions, and now 2 rookies and 2 under 25 veterans competing to round it out. Both are considered pash rush experts. Isaiah Ford was another surprise, but in the 7th round you go for value, and Ford was value. He will have to show something special to make the team in a stacked group of WRs.

Training Camp Battles

GUARD-BOWL PART DEUX

Contestants: Isaac Asiata, Ted Larsen, Kraig Urbik
I was hoping I wouldn't have to do this section again, but unfortunately, I have to do this section again. After a successful first year on the team, Laremy Tunsil is being kicked out of LG and taking over his natural position of LT. That said, it is very likely we will be keeping our RG spot the same with Jermon Bushrod. He had an interesting 2016, with PFF grading him among the worst guards in the league. The coaching staff has commented the opposite, however, stating he was vital to our offense's success at times. After some tape review, you can see he did lead the way on some of Ajayi's big runs last year.
Now we're turning our attention to the left spot with two seasoned vets, one of which was on the team last year, and our newly drafted rookie guard. It is very likely Asiata will be resigned to a back up role to start the season, and Larsen is generally considered the favorite to win the position. Urbik was good in limited snaps, but there's nothing to suggest he has anything special to be above a back up. He is likely also competing for the back up center spot with Anthony Steen, and thus will see more snaps there.

Linebacker Group - 3rd Member

Contestants: Koa Misi, Raekwon McMillan, Mike Hull
As said earlier, our LB group was pretty shitty last year. After injuries to 2/3 of our starters, and inconsistent play from Kiko, our team was slashed by the run repeatedly. Thus, this year, we decided to kick it up a notch and invest heavily in fortifying the position. Two starters are known, with Alonso returning and Timmons being signed to the unit. Both of these players are versatile, so we're just waiting on our third linebacker to get picked so we can an idea of who will be playing what position. Koa Misi is the seasoned veteran of the team, but has injury concerns, and doesn't wow the audience when he is healthy. Raekwon McMillan comes from a star studded college team and was grabbed with our second round draft pick, but at the end of the day is still a rookie and may not be able to handle the responsibilities from week one. Mike Hull was among a group of UDFA LBs we grabbed a couple years ago that all looked promising, but ultimately fell short. Reports are that he is the leading candidate for the third slot, but the fans aren't thrilled to hear that and hope McMillan can shine come preseason.

Stacks on Stacks - Wide Receiver Depth

Contestants: Leonte Carroo, Jakeem Grant, Rashawn Scott, Drew Morgan, Isaiah Ford
This one is going to be damn near impossible to predict. Our starting WRs are all but set in stone, barring any unforeseen injuries. However, the depth could go anywhere. Last year saw disappointing seasons from returning players Jakeem Grant, who was used as a returner when he didn't fumble it, and Leonte Carroo, who was expected to be a steal of a draft pick but was unable to make the game day roster most weeks. His replacement, most of those weeks, was Rashawn Scott, who was an UDFA in the same draft we traded up for Carroo. No official game stats yet, but shows a direct comparison with one of his competitors. Drew Morgan and Isaiah Ford are both from this year's draft, and have been notable in camp. Drew Morgan has impressed coaches repeatedly, whereas Isaiah Ford had a much better collegiate career. It is unlikely both make the team, and are likely competing with each other for WR spot #6.

Project Line-Up

Offense:
Position #1 #2 #3
QB Ryan Tannehill Matt Moore
RB Jay Ajayi Kenyan Drake Damien Williams
LT Laremy Tunsil Sam Young
LG Ted Larsen Isaac Asiata
C Mike Pouncey Anthony Steen
RG Jermon Bushrod Kraig Urbik
RT Ju'Wuan James Sam Young
TE Julius Thomas Anthony Fasano MarQueis Gray
WR1 DeVante Parker Isaiah Ford
WR2 Kenny Stills Rashawn Scott
Slot Jarvis Landry Leonte Carroo
-- -- -- --
LS John Denney
Kicker Andrew Franks
Punter MATT "GOAT" DARR
Defense:
Position #1 #2 #3
DE1 Andre Branch William Hayes Terrance Fede
DE2 Cameron Wake Charles Harris
3DT Ndamukong Suh Davon Godchaux
NT Jordan Phillips Nick Williams
WLB Kiko Alonso Neville Hewitt
MLB Lawrence Timmons Raekwon McMillan
SLB Mike Hull Koa Misi
CB1 Byron Maxwell Bobby McCain(Nickel) Cordrea Tankserley
CB2 Xavien Howard Tony Lippett Jordan Lucas
FS Nate Allen TJ McDonald Michael Thomas
SS Reshad Jones Walt Aikens
Most of the starters are set in stone, with the few exceptions in the training camp battles listed above. I decided to go balls to the wall and try to guess our entire 53-man roster, and the ones I'm unsure of making the roster I have Super scripted. Rookies are italicized.
Last year, we were worried more about starters and who would fill out. This year, we're worried more about the depth. That's a VERY good chance in roster status. A few of our starters are even going to be put in a rotation to keep them fresh. That's a testament to our coaching staff succeeding in their personnel decisions. Hopefully the improvement is shown in the records this year, and not just another preseason hype.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:
Our offense is absolutely stacked outside of the offensive line. Our guard position lacks superstars, but our tackles are very much solid and Mike Pouncey is looking to show the league why he's the best player on our offensive line. Our defensive line was good on paper before the draft with the trade for Hayes, but after drafting Cameron Wake Lite in Charles Harris, our rotation will be deep and nasty. Our cornerback group lacks the big name stars of the league, but Byron Maxwell played as well as he ever has last year and looks to continue his destruction of the league. If the rest of the group continues to improve, we may compete to have the best secondary in the division.
Weaknesses:
As started above, our Linebacker group was piss poor last year and only improved marginally this year. Lots of us were looking to grab Reuben Foster in the draft when he fell to pick 22, but thankfully we didn't have reports continually came out pulling his draft stock down. McMillan will be more than serviceable in the future, but we need him now. Our offensive line has 3 positions that look formidable, and two that look shaky. Add into that equation our star Center, Mike Pouncey, having a long injury history, and our offensive line goes from decent to bad. If Bushrod doesn't regress at 32 and Larsen can come in and perform at 30, maybe some strain will be taken off Pouncey and allow him to not only survive, but thrive. As for special teams, Matt Darr is a damn good punter(how tf do we keep getting good punters?), but John Denney is but a mere demigod. He can't land the kicks for Andrew Franks, who struggled most of his career until landing a beautiful kick against Buffalo to send the game into overtime. That's not even counting the fact that our situation at punt and kick returning are atrocious. Grant was lackluster and had butterfingers, Kenyan Drake has been good but hasn't proved to be the answer just yet, and Jarvis Landry is too valuable to put back there.

Season Preview

Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay: Battle of South Florida(sort of). Tampa Bay is an up and coming team with a fantastic QB-WR combo and tons of talents on their defense. However, they have fallen short of the playoffs in the short tenure of Jameis Winston. This might finally be their year after a good off season, but their division is tough. Combine that with Gase not wanting another slow start to the year. Predicting a W to start the season. 1-0
Week 2: @ LA Chargers: The chargers are a weird team yo. Last year, I predicted they would bounce back and have a great year with their injuries not possibly happening twice in a row, but it did, and they didn't have a great year. This game is early in the year, and I predict they won't be an injured mess, but I also think they didn't get better substantially enough. Their offensive line is likely to start two rookies against our monsterous defensive line, and despite having some super stars, they also lack talent elsewhere. I see this as another win. 2-0
Week 3: @ NY Jets: The Jets are in full blown rebuild mode. They cut a lot of their stars, and their most important position is a giant question mark. Their defense, once feared even in the depths of Foxborough, has now become a laughing stock. The team lacks an identity at this point in time, and it's early enough in the year that I don't think the cold will hinder the Phins. I can't see anyway to not count this as a W. 3-0
Week 4: vs. New Orleans Saints(London Game): Oh boy oh boy oh boy. The Dolphins play the New Orleans Saints in London. I love these Sundays. Wake up at 9, get drunk by 10. Unfortunately, I believe the Saints will win a high scoring game as Brees obliterates our question marks on defense, while his defense stiffens up just enough to give them the edge. I can live with it, but it'll be a loss. 3-1
Week 5: vs. Tennessee Titans: I kind of like the Titans, in like a little brother way. We seem to exchange a lot of players, play a similar game, and have started rebuilding around the same time. Mariota seems to be a better Tannehill, but our receiving group is better. They can run the ball more reliably, but Jay Ajayi might be the best RB on the field. It'll come down to defense, and neither of our defenses are star studded. I think this is the type of game that ends 24-23, but I think the Dolphins will have something to prove after the game last year. 4-1
Week 6: @Atlanta Falcons: Look. I go on this subreddit. I've seen the memes. I know who we're playing though. The Falcons will be on a revenge tour this year, looking to get back to the Superbowl and redeem themselves. Their offense is still spectacular, and their defense was young and only got better. This WILL be a loss. 4-2
Week 7: vs. New York Jets: It's so lazy to do, but I'd like to point any and all readers to my previous section. It's still true. Their best QB is a back up on close to 30 teams in the league, and their RBs won't carry the team the way Barry Sanders could. They're a division rival, so they're supposed to play us close, but I KNOW they're saving their meme magic for the Patriots. 5-2.
Week 8: @Baltimore Ravens: F' you Baltimore. Every year, I think we can take you on. I think we finally have your number and can beat you. Then, you embarrass us. Every. Year. The ONLY time we got you, was when you were carting out players from your practice squad due to injuries. That wasn't satisfying. Maybe it will be this year? I'm not betting on it though, we're still going to lose to your team and I'm not sure why other than history. 5-3
Week 9: vs. Oakland Raiders: Damn. This is a hard schedule back to back. The Raiders are a team with talent EVERYWHERE. Their defense is stout, their offense is loaded, their coach seems great, and their QB just put up MVP numbers before being injured. In the NFL, you need to live, breath, and preach any given Sunday. However, today is Tuesday and I'm not in the NFL. We're getting back to back losses as the high powered Raiders blow the Dolphins out. 5-4
Week 10: @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina regressed hard after their superbowl trip. Some might even say the house is on fire. Now, I dont have enough info to put my opinion in on firing their GM, but I can see their team. I think they have some very high highs and some very low lows. I think the Dolphins will look like the contender on this day, despite being the visiting team. They don't want to give up 3 losses in a row and will have fire in the bellies. 6-4
Week 11: BYE WEEK As with every year, I freaking hope we don't lose our bye week.
Week 12: @New England: Shit. Dude, like.... I want to say we'll win. I really do. One of my best friends from babyhood is a Pats fan, and it will bring me great joy to beat the Pats convincingly. Our team seems fired up to take them on, but how? The Patriots have a potentially GOAT Coach, GOAT QB, a STACKED offense outside of their line, and a strong defense. In New England? We don't win. 6-5
Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos: Hey Vance, it's me, your old team. How's it going? Having a good season? That's cool. Well... we're here to play, and having been embarrassed by a division rival the previous week, I'm not sure your team can handle it. Your defense is amazing, but we saw last year it can be exploited between the hashes. I think Gase is able to scheme against his former team, and out coach his former subordinate. 7-5.
Week 14: vs. New England: It's weird that we play all of our division rivals consecutively. Like, usually they're spread out, but we go jets x2, to Pats x2, then finally we play the Bills. This time, New England is in South Florida, where they've historically struggled. This is a make it or break it game for Miami. Primetime, Monday Night Football against not only a division rival, but the defending super bowl champs. It may be crazy to call it, but usually we split with New England, and we get the win here. 8-5
Week 15: @Buffalo Bills: I have a lot less faith in Buffalo than most. I think they have a mediocre coach, an inconsistent QB, a strong run game, and an average defense. These do not add up well for Buffalo. Once again, any given Sunday, but I think the Bills will be outcoached, out ran, and out gunned at home. 9-5
Week 16: @ KC Chiefs: This is gonna be a tough one to predict. On one hand, the KC Chiefs are very consistently a good team. They have a fantastic defense, a good running game, versatility in their offense, and a good head coach. They lack a star QB however. I can see this game going either way, and I expect it to be a close one. However, I can't reasonably say the Dolphins are better other than at QB, and even that is debatable. Thus, this is another loss. 9-6
Week 17: vs. Buffalo Bills: Last game of the year against a division rival. Oh boy, this will be fun. As I said earlier, I don't have a ton of faith in the Bills. Are they better than the Jets? Of course. Does that mean anything? Of course not. They have a similar schedule to us, but I just don't see them as having a competing year, and thus will be looking to play spoiler. However, vengeance is not a great motivator. I think this will be a bit more lopsided than the previous match up, and the Dolphins will walk out 10-6, hoping to secure a play off berth
Final record: 10-6

Final Thoughts

I definitely added some homerism in my predictions, and for that I'm sorry. I know my team, and I've seen what Adam Gase can do with a depleted roster lacking fire. He turned our team around from 1-4 last year and took us to the Playoffs, despite losing our QB almost a month prior. I'm really excited for this year. I think our ceiling is 11-5, but our actual record will probably be 9-7 or 10-6. We're a good team with a good coach, and if we don't get the wrong injuries, we can compete with anybody. We have to play the Patriots twice a year, and last time they looked unstoppable, we stole the division from them. It's the best part of the NFL.
I hope you all enjoyed reading whatever part of this you did, and as per usual I'll try to edit it throughout the day to make it more presentable or have better information. I invite any of you looking for a new NFL or AFC team to watch our games. We're a young team filled with fire and a great captain leading the ship. We have great personalities, and despite what you may read, Ryan Tannehill can fucking ball. Last year he started to show glimpses of being a strong NFL QB, and I'm hoping this year he continues to make strides. I don't know if he'll ever be a top 3 or top 5 QB, but I think he'll consistently be a top 10 with Adam Gase by his side.
In Gase We Trust.

Shoutouts to People who helped

skepticismissurvival for organising 32 Teams/32 Days.
Shoutout to /MiamiDolphins for being awesome, being a fun place to browse, and enjoying the ride whether it's the long offseason or the exciting regular season. Feel free to stop by if you're not a division rival(Bills can stop by).

Link to Hub

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Wild Card Round - Panthers at Saints - Pregame Report

GAME INFORMATION

ESPN GAME CENTER
TEAM Record
CAROLINA PANTHERS 11-5, 9-7-0 ATS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 11-5, 9-7-0 ATS
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Spread Consensus: NEW ORLEANS BY 7
OveUnder: 47.5
GAME TIME AND LOCATION:
Mercedes-Benz Pooperdome - 4:40 PM January 7, 2018
WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: The New Orleans Saints call themselves a football team, yet they play inside like children so the weather doesn't affect them.
Stadium Type: Dome
NFL Broadcast Map
Broadcast Station FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy "I bet he'd like that one back" Aikman
Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
/PANTHERS TICKET THREAD
StubHub
Ticketmaster
SeatGeek
Head Official Tony Corrente

INJURY REPORT

Panthers Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Mike Adams S Rest DNP FP FP -
Mario Addison DE Hip DNP FP FP -
Vernon Butler DT Shoulder LP FP FP -
Kurt Coleman S Ankle FP FP FP -
Devin Funchess WR Shoulder DNP DNP FP Questionable
Wes Horton DE Rib DNP FP FP -
Matt Kalil T Illness LP DNP LP Questionable
Ryan Kalil C Shoulder LP FP FP -
Cam Newton QB Shoulder LP LP FP -
Greg Olsen TE Foot FP FP FP -
Julius Peppers DE Rest DNP DNP FP -
Jonathan Stewart RB Back LP FP FP -
Shaq Thompson LB Foot LP FP FP -
Trai Turner G Concussion FP FP FP Questionable
Saints Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Trey Hendrickson DE Ankle - LP - Questionable
Terron Armstead T Thigh - LP - Questionable
Michael Thomas WR Hamstring - FP - -
Josh Hill TE Shoulder - FP - -
Justin Hardee CB Foot - FP - -
Michael Hoomanawanui TE Concussion - FP - -

PICKS

All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network, NFL.com, SI.com and more – sorted by season win percentage.
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks
CAROLINA PANTHERS 4%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 96%

TOP TEN EXPERT PICKS

Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick
1 Jeff Ratcliffe 180-76 70% ?
2 Jamey Eisenberg 178-77 69%
3 KC Joyner 178-78 69% ?
4 Kevin Sherrington 177-79 69%
5 PFF Analytics 176-80 68%
6 Mike Clay 174-82 67%
7 Patrick Schmidt 174-82 67% ?
8 Sam Farmer 173-81 68% ?
9 Chris Burke 173-83 67% ?
10 Nate Davis 173-83 67%

PROJECT FIVETHIRTYEIGHT - 2017 TEAM PREDICTIONS

CAROLINA PANTHERS 35%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 65%
Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season)

Season Prediction

ELO Rating One Week Change Make Divisional Round Make Conf Championship Make Super Bowl Win Super Bowl
1585 - 19 35% 12% 5% 2%
1625 - 33 65% 25% 11% 5%

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Trai Turner
Turner practiced in full after being in the concussion protocol following the Week 14 game against the Vikings. While backup Silatolu performed decently in run blocking, his pass protection was downright terrible, especially during Newton's career worst outing against the Falcons in Week 17. Turner will need to bring back some stability to an O Line that visibly missed him in his absence.
Cam Newton
All eyes are on the 2015 NFL MVP to see just how well he can bounce back from his career worst performance in the NFL. Newton finished Week 17 with an atrocious 31.5 passer rating. If fans have any glimmer of hope to look forward to its that Newton has bounced back this season after bad performances. His passer rating in the 7 weeks leading up to the Falcons game see-sawed up and down with 71.0 / 120.4 / 59.8 / 107.5 / 64.9 / 128.0 / 65.4 respectively. The stats would indicate Newton is due for a big game, on the road, against the Saints, who have already beaten him twice.
Run Defense
The second level tacklers have to continue to improve against Kamara and Ingram. Luke, TD and Shaq are all great at reading plays and flying to the ball but the must maintain their lanes to negate cutbacks and as Shaq showed last time these two teams played, they must wrap up to bring down Kamara. If the linebackers do their job it will take some pressure off the youngeolder secondary to hold the back line against explosive chunk plays. Outside of run plays, Luke and Co. must also maintain their discipline against quick screens. This will be Brees’ best weapon against the Carolina pass rush.
Pass Defense
If Carolina can manage to stop the run and Brees is forced to work his magic through the air, a defense that has surrendered nearly 700 yards through the air is going to need to find their magic quickly. While Carolina's secondary has been less than stellar, the return of a struggling Kurt Coleman who still remains the heart and soul of the defensive backfield immediately improves the Panthers ability to stop Brees and company through the air.If you give Brees time he will shred you. In the past two games Brees has used screen plays to avoid our pass rush so they need to do something different to disrupt him. One of Drew’s main faults is his height. If the D line can get a push then get their hands up they have a good chance of batting some quick throws down at the line. Anything they can do to cause Brees to hesitate or mess with his confidence and rhythm will help.
Swagger
Last but not least we need to see the fun team we’ve seen flashes of this year. We all know by now our team plays much better when they’re free and loose. The Saints cracked down on fun this week taking away the N64 and ping pong tables in the locker room. I don’t know why you’d mess with a formula that got you to 11-6 and a division title but Sean Peyton did. Let’s come out and be the relaxed fun team and let the Saints heavy emphasis on focus be the death of their playoff dreams.

MATCHUP HISTORY

All Time Record: 24-22 (Panthers lead)
Largest Victory: 45-13 (01/02/2000)
Current Streak: 2L
  • Since Cam came to Carolina, the Panthers are 7-7 against the Saints
  • This will be the first time (since the 2002 realignment) that two NFC South teams face each other in the playoffs. Only the AFC East has not had this happen.
  • Despite the series equally split between home and away (12-11 Panthers lead each), both teams tend to score more points in the Saints home.
*Unfortunately, some dire news, when headed in to the postseason to face the team that swept them in the regular season, the swept teams are 2-4 historically.

HEAD TO HEAD

CAROLINA OFFENSE VS. NEW ORLEANS DEFENSE
Points/Game 22.7 (#12) 20.4 (#10) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 323.7 (#19) 336.5 (#17) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.354 (#13) = 0.325 (#13) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 5.0 (#19) 5.4 (#22) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 41.89% (#7) 41.04% (#27) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 45.45% (#16) 33.33% (#8) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 53.85% (#17) 52.08% (#14) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.5 (#14) 2.2 (#12) Opp TDs/Game
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE VS. CAROLINA DEFENSE
Points/Game 28.0 (#4) 20.4 (#11) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 391.2 (#2) 317.1 (#7) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.448 (#2) 0.343 (#18) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 6.3 (#1) 5.3 (#17) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 37.63% (#19) 37.86% (#13) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 80.00% (#1) 35.00% (#10) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 58.18% (#8) = 47.73% (#8) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 3.2 (#2) 2.1 (#8) Opp TDs/Game

BY THE NUMBERS

13-7
The Panthers and Saints are meeting for round three, and neither of the first two rounds went well for the Panthers. This statistic doesn't bode well, either: divisional rivals that sweep a season series against their opponent are 13-7 all-time against that same opponent in the playoffs. So no, it's not necessarily harder to beat a team three times in one season. But it's not impossible for the other team to get the upper hand. The most recent time this happened was when the Giants avenged two earlier losses to the Cowboys on their way to the Super Bowl in 2007.
7-13
Fittingly, if you flip that record around, it becomes another statistic. Since divisional realignment in 2002, teams from a division that sends three teams to the playoffs are 7-13 in the playoffs, once you throw out games they play against each other. The AFC North sent three reps in 2014 and 2011, the AFC West sent three reps in 2013, the AFC South did it in 2007, and the NFC East did it back to back years in 2007 and 2006. The '07 Giants show up yet again as the only one of these teams to have won the Super Bowl.
3-0
A 27-16 win against the Arizona Cardinals in January of 2015. A 23-0 shutout of the New York Giants in January of 2006. And a 29-10 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys in January of 2004. Yes, it's true. The Panthers are undefeated in the Wild Card Round. The Panthers are the only NFL team to have played at least one game in the Wild Card round and never lost. So, statistically speaking, they will never lose in the Wild Card round. Simple math.
53.7
The X-Factor for the Panthers against the Saints will be tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen missed both of the previous games in this series this year and has been healthy for some time now. In 12 career games against the Saints, Olsen averages 53.7 receiving yards per game. He also has 4 touchdowns. Since joining the Panthers, he's second only to Julio Jones in receiving yards against the Saints with 644, and is tied for second with Steve Smith and Terrance Williams in touchdowns. Does he own the Saints? Not really. But he makes a tangible difference when he's on the field.
451
The Saints will also be fielding a key player for the first time in this season series. Rookie cornerback Marson Lattimore will play the Panthers for the first time, as if our receivers' job wasn't already difficult enough. Lattimore has played 451 snaps in coverage this season and has yet to allow a touchdown. That's right: he has yet to be scored on in his NFL career. He's a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Devin Funchess is going to have his hands full..well, hopefully he has his hands full with some touchdown catches.

PANTHERS POWER RANKINGS

Outlet Rank Last Week Weekly Change Notes
7 7 - It’s not the worst thing to lose on the road to a Falcons team fighting for its playoff life. But it was a lost opportunity, considering the Saints lost. The Panthers would have been NFC South champs with a Week 17 win. It’ll be tough to win this week at the Superdome, a place the Panthers lost 31-21 a month ago.
7 7 - Opponent winning percentage: .539; tied for the fifth-hardest. The 2017 Panthers proved that you don't need to be pass heavy to win. They went 11-5 while averaging 192 passing yards per game. That's the fewest passing yards by an 11-win team since the 2015 Vikings.
7 7 - Recap: The Panthers actually entered Sunday with a chance to capture the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. But that opportunity disappeared when the Vikings won earlier on Sunday. No matter, because Cam Newton and the Carolina offense stalled at Atlanta. The seven-year pro completed less than half of his throws (14-of-34) for only 180 yards. He found wide receiver Devin Funchess for one touchdown but also served up three interception. Carolina’s defensive unit only surrendered one touchdown in the game but the Falcons did roll up 371 total yards against the league’s seventh-ranked defensive unit. Postseason Preview: The Panthers are in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. But for the first time, they will begin their playoff run on the road. On Sunday at 4:40 pm ET, Rivera’s club returns to the Superdome for the second time in six weeks looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Saints this season. Offseason Priorities: Ageless defensive end Julius Peppers signed a one-year contract to rejoin the team this offseason. Could he return for a 17th NFL campaign? The bigger priority is defensive tackles Star Lotulelei, who could be a candidate for the franchise tag.
9 3 ↓ 6 The offense was unproductive Sunday in Atlanta, as QB Cam Newton was off target in a 14-for-34, three-interception performance. That won’t be nearly good enough against the Saints, who will demand the Panthers put forth a decent scoring performance to keep pace. TE Greg Olsen and RB Christian McCaffrey must be major factors. The defense is good enough. It’s all about whether Newton and the offense will come around.
7 6 ↓ 1 They've only managed as many as 200 passing yards twice in the past 10 games. Might not be explosive enough to make a deep playoff run.
6 6 - The Carolina Panthers are big, they're physical and their defense is going to be a handful for anyone it comes across in the postseason. The problem is there isn't anyone on offense to be scared of other than Cam Newton. Having to go to New Orleans is a postseason problem because the Saints handled the Panthers both times they've faced them this season. Can Carolina find ways to consistently move the ball and make explosive plays against the Saints defense? If not, the Panthers better dial up some creative runs for Newton, because their fate will rest on him.
8 7 ↓ 1 This team is almost as inconsistent as the team below it. Cam Newton's play is confounding. Every time the media says, Look out, the Panthers are letting Cam be Cam and they're going to make a run! ... Carolina lays an egg. Newton was erratic on Sunday, continuing a chain of on-again, off-again performances. Look no further than his in-game passer ratings over the seven games prior to the matchup with the Falcons: 71.0, 120.4, 59.8, 107.5, 64.9, 128.0 and 65.4. I mean, if you're in Charlotte, his play is like Fury 325 at Carowinds. So I guess that means Newton dominates this week, right?
7 5 ↓ 2 They didn't play well on defense the past two weeks -- giving up nearly 700 yards passing -- and that has to be concerning heading to New Orleans.

NFL STANDINGS

Team Overall Record Division Division Record Conf Record PF PA Streak
(wxyz) Patriots 13-3 AFC East 5-1 10-2 458 296 W3
(wxyz) Eagles 13-3 NFC East 5-1 10-2 457 295 L1
(xyz) Steelers 13-3 AFC North 6-0 10-2 406 308 W2
(xyz) Vikings 13-3 NFC North 5-1 10-2 382 252 W3
(xy) Rams 11-5 NFC West 4-2 7-5 478 329 L1
(xy) Saints 11-5 NFC South 4-2 8-4 448 326 L1
(y) Panthers 11-5 NFC South 3-3 7-5 363 327 L1
(xy) Jaguars 10-6 AFC South 4-2 9-3 417 268 L2
(xy) Chiefs 10-6 AFC North 5-1 8-4 415 339 W4
(y) Falcons 10-6 NFC South 4-2 9-3 353 315 W1
(y) Titans 9-7 AFC South 5-1 8-4 334 356 W1
(y) Bills 9-7 AFC East 3-3 7-5 302 359 W1
Lions 9-7 NFC North 5-1 8-4 410 376 W1
Ravens 9-7 NFC East 3-3 7-5 395 303 L1
Chargers 9-7 AFC West 3-3 6-6 355 272 W2
Seahawks 9-7 NFC West 4-2 7-5 366 332 L1
Cowboys 9-7 NFC East 5-1 7-5 354 332 W1
Cardinals 8-8 NFC West 3-3 5-7 295 361 W2
Bengals 7-9 AFC North 3-3 6-6 290 349 W2
Packers 7-9 NFC North 2-4 5-7 320 384 L3
Redskins 7-9 NFC East 1-5 5-7 342 388 L1
Raiders 6-10 AFC West 2-4 5-7 301 373 L4
Dolphins 6-10 AFC East 2-4 5-7 281 393 L3
49ers 6-10 NFC West 1-5 3-9 331 383 W5
Broncos 5-11 AFC West 2-4 4-8 289 382 L2
Jets 5-11 AFC East 2-4 5-7 298 382 L4
Buccs 5-11 NFC South 1-5 3-9 335 382 W1
Bears 5-11 NFC North 0-6 1-11 264 320 L1
Colts 4-12 AFC South 2-4 3-9 263 404 W1
Texans 4-12 AFC South 1-5 3-9 338 436 L6
Giants 3-13 NFC East 1-5 1-11 246 388 W1
Browns 0-16 AFC North 0-6 0-12 234 410 L16
  • (w) Clinched Homefield
  • (x) Clinched Division
  • (y) Clinched Playoffs
  • (z) Clinched Bye

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Andrew Norwell is the only offensive lineman in the NFL who did not let his quarterback get touched all year. Zero sacks allowed. Zero hits allowed.
Ron Rivera deserves credit for coaching the least penalized team in the league
Norwell and Kuechly selected for 1st team AP All-Pro team
Our mantra for the playoffs. SEEK. STRIKE. DESTROY.
Cam T-shirt Design from Runaway (Durham Clothing Brand)
No one is giving us a chance. The way I like it.
Cam Newton: No need to panic
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Betting Preview for the Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos NFL Regular Season Week 17 Game on December 29, 2019. Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver. When: Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM ET. Line: Oakland Raiders (+3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5) – view all 2019 NFL lines. TV Broadcast: CBS. Betting on the Oakland Raiders (7-8) NFL Football Preview – Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos Betting Picks September 7 Accuscore SportsGrid Week 1 of the NFL slate finishes up in the Bay Area as the Denver Broncos and Oakland Betting market: It took a little while, but the Broncos, who could be found at anywhere from -4.5 to -6.5 in the early portions of the week, have settled in at -6 since at the time of writing (see live data here).They are getting 57% of bets and 65% of dollars. We’ve also tracked a steam move and reverse line move on the over, which has gone from 45 to 45.5/46 since opening. Watch Now: Betting Preview: Raiders at Broncos (1:13) The last time the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders met, it was Sept. 9. The Raiders were just days removed from the conclusion of their The experts at BetQL get you ready for Monday night's late game with all the betting odds, stats, and trends you need to know to make the sharpest picks for the Broncos-Raiders showdown.

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