Blackjack rules | Black jack rules | Betting blackjack

Banned from Barona within 1 hour

I was playing their lowest min double deck table ($15 minimum). I got lucky and was up $350 in an hour. I wasn't feeling it because of the touchless betting rule so I cashed out and left.
On the way out a couple staff members stopped me and gave me the whole "your games too good for us" and said I can't play blackjack here ever again.
Asked a bunch of personal questions like where do I live, who taught me to play, do they come here as well. But otherwise pretty friendly about it.
I was honestly surprised because I didn't think this would happen in my first month of play. I also stupidly showed my ID earlier so I'm likely on a list now.
I did a few things that may have tipped them off. I'm curious which is the biggest indicator:
How do you typically handle this situation afterwards? Wait a few months before coming back or avoid forever?
The strangest thing was I went to the nearby casino Sycuan right after and I swear a couple security guards followed me around. However I didn't play because the minimums were too high for me and was able to leave without trouble.
submitted by beginnercardcounter to blackjack [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Clubhouse Games: 34 Frustrations

The more I play Clubhouse Games the more annoyed I get over how phoned-in it is. It looks great but I’d rather have worse graphics if it meant better gameplay.
I have about 80 hours in the game so far. I’ve played everything at least a few times: online and not, with friends or strangers. At a certain point, the novelty of the game wears off and your left with something incredibly subpar. Nothing about this game really feels broken but nothing feels incredibly polished either (except for the graphics but they’ve even managed to mess those up). I know I’m about to list off a bunch of minor annoyances but I don’t think expecting a first party Nintendo game to feel like it’s worth $40 is too much to ask.
I am interested in people’s opinions so I’ll try to keep things organized.
Clubhouse Games
  1. There are no global options whatsoever, and individual game options need to be set and reset often. You can’t change the volume for sound effects or music, you can’t turn the announcer off. It’d be nice to be able to disable intros, set all games to the hardest difficulty, or set favorites. Things like that wouldn’t be all that difficult to put in and would only make the experience better for everybody.
Single System
  1. Why does the game start with the worst possible UI option? Unless you love mancala, having games set up in a line isn’t useful (and even then you may want to play something else from time to time). You have to press X to change the menu every single time. The line is a cool presentation but it shouldn’t be the default.
  2. There is no way to sort games. They are not arranged in any particular order. It’d be cool if they were organized alphabetically or by age or region or players or game type but instead we get them loosely thrown together.
  3. Just to get this out the way now, there are not enough games for 3 or 4 people, despite a lot of these being games that support that many players.
Dots and Boxes
  1. Full analogue control is unnecessary. There should be the option to use the D pad to navigate the grid. Also this is an incredibly bare game for what is essentially color and paper. Being able to change the size and shape of the play space would be nice, as would different visual options.
Yacht Dice
  1. Mostly fine, the fact that it doesn’t snap to the category with the most points is weird.
Hex
  1. Same aesthetic complaint as D&B. Otherwise it’s fine and the grid based movement feels way better.
Hare and Hounds
  1. Why is there no option to randomize which player is which? That’s literally what happens online.
Chinese Checkers / Ludo
  1. Why can’t you pick your own color?
Shogi / Mini Shogi / Hanafuda
  1. Why aren’t Global and Classic purely cosmetic? Like, why do both players have to use the same setting? Just make it so each player can use the version they’re most comfortable with in the same game. This is a bigger problem online where they’re considered two different games.
Last Card
  1. The option to draw 1, or draw until you have a matching card should be in here, which is a pretty common house rule.
  2. Where you sit at the table doesn’t change nor can you can’t change the total number of players (uno itself can support up to 10 people). This makes friend matches somewhat boring because you’re always seated next to them.
  3. Declaring last card and playing the selected card should be the same action. It’s not like people still wouldn’t mess it up.
Blackjack
  1. This game is broken. You can go negative, which means there’s no incentive to place a reasonable bet. Why not just start the player with 500 if they can rack up debt? This is especially strange because in Texas you lose if you run out of money.
Texas Hold ‘em
  1. The betting system is better but it’s not great. Why can’t we choose how much we want to bet?
President
  1. Are five rounds necessary? The only thing that matters is who wins the last game so why not have a one round option?
Speed
  1. The selection mechanic doesn’t make sense and doesn’t always cooperate, which is problematic for such a high intensity game. Why not map the four cards to buttons and put the deck selection on the triggers?
Matching
  1. Same as #5. There’s no advantage to full analogue controls here.
Takoyaki
  1. Combos should snap to the appropriate card automatically. You get nothing from having to cycle through to each card.
Pig’s Tail
  1. Analogue makes a little more sense here but digital should still be an option (or at least give us cursor sensitivity options).
Golf
  1. A practice mode would be nice, or the option to undo your last stroke at least.
  2. Unlike other golf games, your ball wont bounce across the hole if you putt too hard. This makes the final putt unexiting and almost useless.
  3. It’s not clear how high your shot arcs in relation to the rest of the field.
Billiards
  1. Why does aiming and shooting suck so hard? Why not map aim to the shoulder buttons and give us a power meter like Carrom?
Bowling / Darts
  1. Why aren’t more than 2 players supported? These are the party games.
Toy Curling
  1. Worse than pool in that aiming and power are the same action. Makes the game imprecise.
  2. We don’t need to be reminded how many shots are left every turn. “Last three” is sufficient.
Toy Baseball
  1. I have never had a successful match with this game against another person. Maybe it’s just me but the controls don’t work when playing against a human who will use every trick under the sun to strike you out. They should’ve just put NES or Wii baseball here.
Slot Cars
  1. Analogue sticks are not precise. I get why they’re here but buttons or even RC cars like in Mario Odyssey would feel better.
Fishing
  1. Have we learned nothing from Mario Party or Smash 3DS? Turning the stick in a circle like that isn’t fun or comfortable and I don’t want to give my joy con a reason to start drifting again.
Shooting
  1. Also broken. The fact that there’s nothing stopping you from just spamming shot takes any fun or challenge out of the game once you play against other people. Even limited ammo would work here.
Piano
  1. A wasted opportunity. Why aren’t any keys mapped to buttons?
Online
  1. This game, like the NSO libraries, runs poorly for no reason. I have a friend in Australia (which has a poor internet infrastructure). We can play more demanding games like Splatoon and Minecraft just fine but this online is almost unplayable.
  2. Players with poor connection should be locked out of the action games.
  3. There should be a way to quit out of a game without quitting the whole app. There’s no consequence for it—on anyone’s end because they just replace you with a CPU anyway—so why not.
I know I didn’t get everything but I’d like to hear your thoughts. How are you getting along with the game? Are these problems starting to bother you? Do you have different problems that I didn’t name? Let me know in the comments.
submitted by mierecat to NintendoSwitch [link] [comments]

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You don’t need an app to play.. So, if you have an iPhone, you simply gamble at Leo Vegas’ website. For Android phones and tablets, LeoVegas has an optional app you can download by following instructions you’ll find after registering at the Leovegas mobile casino. However, most players skip downloading the app. It’s a bit cumbersome as it requires changing a couple of Android’s standard settings. Especially as playing on a mobile device works equally well.
Usually, our bonus experts stay with one mobile casino for a couple of days to find out whether there are kinks in the mobile experience. But, we realized LeoVegas is pretty damn good when we noticed our experts had had accounts at LeoVegas for months. The draw here is that besides being technically perfect for Android and Apple devices, the mobile casino has big promotions for existing players. These promos are bound to make you pop back to Leo to play your free spins and other real money casino bonuses.
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Game Responsibly at Leo Vegas Canada

Leo Vegas uses 2048-bit SSL encryption technology. This ensures the best protection of all personal and financial data that you pass on to them. LeoVegas makes sure that you can 100% trust their online casino site, and you feel safe and secure. Just like in all trustworthy casinos, all the LeoVegas casino games from Casino Holdem to Jackpot slots are tested with Random Number Generator (RNG) randomness, and like all trustworthy casinos.
Responsible Gaming is something LeoVegas has taken into account. You can set an account, time, and deposit limits. These are essential tools in ensuring players conduct themselves within their means. You can contact LeoVegas Help Center that has a Live Chat available 24/7 that is eager to help you on anything responsible gambling, games at LeoVegas, or anything else you have in your mind.

Leo Vegas: Award-Winning Mobile Casino

LeoVegas online casino has been rewarded with multiple awards. LeoVegas is already a winner of:
  • ‘Online Casino of the Year’ Global Gaming Awards in 2019
  • ‘Operator of the Year’ EGR Nordics Awards 2018
  • ‘Online Casino Operator of the Year’ International Gaming Awards 2017
  • ‘Mobile Operator of the Year’ & ‘Nordic Operator of the Year’ EGR Nordic Awards 2016
Leo Vegas is reviewed by the UK Gambling Commission and Malta Gaming Authority. If you ever come across with problems, LeoVegas is a responsible casino operator. They have a live chat available at their casino site. Also, you can contact customer support via online or use the chatbot they have on-site. If you prefer talking with a real person, you can contact their 24/7 Customer Support team via email.
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Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Mobile gambling
If you plan to develop an app with the ability to deposit and withdraw real money, then such a product automatically falls into the category of gambling and you will need to license your business for successful operation.
Mobile and Web Based Apps
So let’s talk about the different kinds of online gambling apps available on web and mobile. We’ll be covering both free-play gaming apps and real money casino app games you can find for iOS, Android devices and web browsers.
Mobile gambling is more common for poker, casino, bingo, and skill games. They have advantages in terms of a low barrier to enter the market, instant liquidity, product knowledge, and marketing expertise, minimal infrastructure costs, and the ability to bring a brand to the market quickly. Consequently, this form of gambling does not sit neatly with jurisdictional boundaries. Multiple gambling opportunities are available, including betting on various events and markets, in a relatively simple format. Gambling products can also be integrated into betting on television shows or virtual racing and sports games as well as offering lotteries, bingo, poker and casino games.
Most Popular Gambling Apps
Sports betting, casino, poker and lotteries are the most popular forms of online gambling. However, other forms are available too. These include the following: Bingo, slot machines, different card games, roulette and other game of chance. One of the best things about online gambling and betting apps is the number of choices you have.

Sports Betting

Betting means making or accepting a bet on the outcome of a race, competition, or other event or process, the likelihood of anything occurring or not occurring, or whether anything is or is not true. Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
The introduction of live betting for sports like soccer and tennis means that bettors who are sitting inside stadiums watching games can now pick up their mobile devices and find real-time betting value with the best sports gambling apps. This has really unlocked a door to the future of sports gambling and the popularity of online gambling apps.

Poker

Many sites offer free poker, where no real money is wagered, although in some cases players can accumulate credits that can be exchanged for prizes. This is the case why people are going to play for real money. There is an ongoing debate over whether poker should be classified as a game of chance or skill. The parameters of legal poker playing are still unclear and differ between jurisdictions. Since you are not gambling with money, I’m pretty sure under the law it’s just a video game for now.

Blackjack

Blackjack is the game of choice to many high-rollers and do you know why? Because blackjack is a challenging, logic and skill-based game where your thinking, strategy, and calculations determine the outcome of the game.

Bingo

Bingo is one of the most popular and socially accepted games in the world. Bingo is a traditional form of gambling that has seen considerable innovation in recent years. It is also the only form of gambling recognized in the Gambling Act that does not have a specific statutory definition, the Act providing simply that “bingo” means “any version of that game, irrespective of by what name it is described”. Bingo must be played as an equal chance game. For game to be classed as “bingo” it must meet the Act’s definition of “equal chance gaming” (as opposed to casino gaming). Thus, it: must not involve playing or staking against a bank, and must be a game in which the chances are equally favorable to all participants in the sense that each ticket or chance has the same probability of success as any other.
Licensed bingo is a well-regulated and socially responsible form of gambling that takes place in a safe environment. Many sites offer multiple forms of bingo with different features, types of games, and costs of play. These sites often cater specifically for women and some research suggests that they may appeal to markets who would not typically engage in traditional forms of gambling.

Slots

Slot machine is one of the most beloved game among the gambling community and it has been a part of the industry for a long time. They provide fun and entertainment and their simplicity allows gamers to start playing at once. This can play out in different ways depending on the machine you’re playing. For instance, there’s Pick a Fortune, a five-reel, 20 line game that puts players right in the studio of a television game show, including the potential to play a Deal or No Deal-style bonus round. A super trend over the past few years is mobile-friendly slot games. These apps and websites were developed to enable players to enjoy their favorite games on their smartphones at any time. Another dominant slot trend is licensed branded slots that are based on popular movies, television, and musicians.
Virtual Money vs Real Money
Let’s find out the difference between social gambling and real money gambling, as well as the differences between gambling through apps and gambling through a web browser. It can be quite confusing trawling through all the casinos, slots, and lotteries available, both through your mobile web browser as well as through mobile app stores, in the form of downloadable apps.

Virtual money

The main difference between virtual money and real money gambling is that the in-game virtual currency in social games and gambling-type games is used only like credits that are not paid out as winnings or anything given to player in cash, making these games exempt from gambling regulations.
Virtual money is loaded on user game accounts via in-app purchases in mobile applications or the game balance funding from a card via web based applications.

Real money gambling

Real money gambling via your mobile device is only allowed in countries where laws have been passed that allow for this type of gambling online, or there are no laws in place that prevent it. The payment systems are the legal way of services payment in the gambling app, performing as the intermediary between the gambling facility and the client. With their help, users replenish deposits and withdraw funds to personal accounts in financial institutions. If the application uses the payment system of a well-known brand, that gives players additional confidence in the resource. Nowadays, there is a wide range of payment systems, some of which operate all over the world, other systems are oriented towards the citizens of one or several countries. A number of services accept money of different world currencies, while others allow currency transactions of one state only.
What is an Online Gambling Licensing
The internet has a global audience, there’s no single piece of legislation that covers the legality of online gambling for the entire world. Mobile gambling doesn’t typically accept customers from every single country in the world. It often focuses on certain specific regions.
Instead, most countries have their own local laws that deal with the relevant legal and regulatory issues.
Ultimately, questions of legality all go back to the location of the casino or where the website operates out of. In closed regulatory systems, such as Italy, France, and the Netherlands, licenses, and advertising rights are limited to domestic providers, which must be located within their country’s geographical boundaries and these are only permitted to offer some types of products. Some jurisdictions, for example, Norway, Sweden, and Canada legalize and regulate online gambling, but this is limited to a single site that is owned by the government. Under such an approach, the government becomes the operator and regulator and all revenues are returned to the government.
Remote gambling is generally permitted. That means that an operator that is licensed may provide gambling services to citizens in the country via all forms of remote communication (and using equipment that may be located in the country or abroad). Equally, a remote operator may be licensed to offer gambling services to citizens in any jurisdiction in the world using equipment located in the country. The law provides that, for each type of gambling (betting, gaming, and participating in a lottery), there will be two forms of license available: remote and non-remote forms (land-based). If you provide facilities for remote gambling, online or through other means, and advertise to consumers you will need a license from the licensing jurisdictions or local licensing authorities. Before an online gambling site signs up its first customer, before it accepts its first bet before the first card is dealt, it must be licensed by a recognized governmental entity.
Certain regions in the world have specific legislation in place that allows them to license and regulate companies that operate online gambling sites or provide industry services (such as the supply of gaming software). These regions are referred to as online gambling jurisdictions or licensing jurisdictions.
Depending on what type of entertainment you are going to implement in your internet establishment, you will have to apply for the corresponding permissions. Online gambling laws in Europe vary from one country to the next. The industry is well regulated in some countries and less so in others. There are several online gambling jurisdictions located in Europe. Some of these are members of the European Union (EU), and thus subject to the various rules and regulations of that body, while others are independent. Each of these jurisdictions has an authority that’s responsible for approving gambling sites for licenses that enable them to offer their services legally. They also regulate their licensees.
Countries that Provide Gambling Licensing
Today there are lots of licensing jurisdictions located all over the world and offering different terms for their customers. Depending on the country, licenses can be local, international (distributed in several countries), have a different set of documents for registration, costs of registration and further support, various operating conditions and other special details.

Which gambling license is both internationally recognized?

The government of Ireland offers casino operators, software, and service providers in the gambling industry, with a gambling license that allows gambling operators to conduct business related to casino, lotto, and other gaming-related activities. Ireland Gambling License is one of the most popular license for online casinos worldwide. Ireland has long been recognized as one of the preferred locations for Online Gambling operators to base their operations. This success has been due to a combination of factors, such as a progressive legislative system, political stability, first-rate telecommunications facilities, and a well established financial services industry. A wide range of gambling sites operates out of Ireland including sports betting, casino sites, poker, bingo, and more.
In stark contrast, the UK is the largest regulated market for online gambling in the world, and corporations are already comfortable exploiting the intersections of gambling and gaming, betting in-play, social gaming, Bitcoin, financial trading and spread betting, betting exchanges, e-sports and, most profitably, mobile gambling. 40% and 60% of online gambling in the UK took place in Gibraltar.

International licensing

Europe is home to the following online gambling jurisdictions: Alderney, Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Malta. Malta is currently the country that is most accommodating to gambling companies, and the license offers whitelisted online gambling in sports and casino games in many European territories. But takes an extreme amount of time in paperwork and background checks. Also, you pay 5% of all your gross profit to the EU.
Among countries offering gambling licensing services, the attention should be paid to Curaçao jurisdiction, which is considered to be one of the most promising for the online gaming business.
Curaçao Internet Gaming Association (also known as Curaçao eGaming) is both a regulator and a licensor, and its licensing works worldwide except Curaçao itself, USA, France and Netherlands. Using Curacao as an example, let us examine in detail the process of obtaining a license, the necessary documents and expenses.
How to get a License on Curaçao
  • Documents necessary for company registration:
  • criminal record;
  • passport scans;
  • bank account confirmation;
  • documents proving payments for utility services.
After the company is registered, an operator can apply for the license providing the following documents:
  • a document certifying the right of domain possession;
  • description of games planned to be used in the project;
  • a list indicating countries of potential operation;
  • illustration of server locations to be used in the project;
  • a copy of the agreement with a software provider.
Gambling license cost:
  • Bank account opening $1000
  • Company registration $3600
  • Company management per year $3600
  • Application processing fee $1000
  • License fee per year $4800
  • Equipment/software fee starting from $1500
  • Server maintenance per year $6000
Apart from that pay for technical support and maintenance every year. The entire license issuing process takes between 2-4 weeks. Curacao Internet Gaming Association (CIGA) also has the power to review a license and, if it finds that an operator has breached a license condition, has the power to impose a range of sanctions including revocation of the license.
Apple and Google Gambling Rules
You’ll be surprised at the limited number of real money gambling app options available on the AppStore and Google Play Store. Most real money casino gaming is done through gambler’s mobile web browsers and not through mobile gambling apps that you’ll find for iPhone and Android phones. Apple allows online gambling applications in a few forms, and not just in places where it is explicitly permitted. They do not allow any payments through the applications – those have to be done on the websites. Apple has far stricter developer guidelines for iOS apps than Google does for Android apps, so it’s fine to assume that whatever you choose to download from iTunes is usually safe, secure, and meets a certain standard.
Any real money casino in the iTunes app is required to have proper licensing and permissions before Apple will approve the app for use or downloads. While Google Play is technically regulated, it is much more loose in what can be hosted.

Apple Store

Gambling, gaming, and lotteries can be tricky to manage and tend to be one of the most-regulated offerings on the App Store. Apple has rules for apps that support real money wagering, including sports betting and poker. Those apps and lotteries must have necessary licensing and permissions in the locations where the App is used, must be geo-restricted to those locations, and must be free on the App Store, and Apple rate even simulated gambling apps as appropriate only for users 17-years-old and up.

Play Store

Google keeps the reigns tight. To be able to successfully upload apps to the Google Play store, developers need to have a valid license for the specific countries they are targeting and comply with their regulations. The app must be free to download and must prevent under-age users from gambling in the app. As a final precaution, all gambling apps are required to display prominent information regarding responsible gambling practices. This brings its policy in line with the Apple App Store.
Countries where gambling is illegal
It is also important to remember that while gambling is growing rapidly in many places, in others it is totally or partially prohibited. As well as in the majority of the US, sports betting is illegal in India, Pakistan, and China, three of the largest gambling markets in the world. Most countries have rules against gambling. Almost all Islamic countries prohibit gambling of every kind, but many turn a blind eye to online gambling or simply do not have regulations in place for this grey area.
In the United Arab Emirates, however, any kind of gambling is prosecuted. National lotteries are the only legal forms of wagering on the Asian country’s mainland. Cambodia, North Korea strictly forbids online and offline gambling amongst its own citizens but allows tourists to participate in these activities.
Qatar is the strictest country of all when it comes to gambling laws. All forms of gambling activities are considered illegal, and even sports betting is not permissible.
Starting your own gambling product
Numerous online casino platforms in the market offer fantastic casino games like bingo, poker, roulette, and many more.
If you have an idea, but don’t know where to start, we advise you begin with a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) to pilot your proof of concept for investors. MVP spotlights your core features and lets your investors know there are bigger and better things to come.
For MVP you do not need a large team, just a few people are enough to create a fully functioning prototype. In the case of successful numbers of your prototype, the further development of a full-fledged product will require more team, resources and time, however you will be sure that your development and your costs will pay off.
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Gambling Games In India

Gambling games and India:

Games of chance have always attracted passionate players and the appeal of Lady Luck never seemed to dwindle. They have thrived for thousands of years, even before written history and up to modern times when we can indulge in gambling on our electronic devices without even having to walk to the nearest casino establishment. Games have changed and flourished, but the passion for playing remained the same. India is a country that boasts a rich history when it comes to gambling and still nurtures a strong passion for it in various forms and guises. That said, it’s well worth taking a glance at the origins of casino games and how and where it all began.
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Gambling stories of ancient India
The Ramayana (one of two major Sanskrit epics of ancient India) cites certain forms of games of chance believed to date back as far as 7300 BC. It describes gambling boards, believed by some to be the game of chess, as well as gambling with dice. The popular saying ‘to lose one’s shirt’, meaning to lose money, originated in ancient India. The old Sanskrit texts compare trees that have been stripped of their fruit to defeated gamblers who lost their clothes and ornaments in a wager.
While the Ramayana casually mentions gambling and does not condone it in any sense of the word, the second epic (the Mahabharata) tells a different story. The main antagonist, Shakuni, arranges a dice game against king Yudhishthira whom he cheated out of all his wealth and kingdom. When another antagonist, Duryodhana, insisted that there was no place for two crown princes in the kingdom, another dice game was arranged which ended in the exile of the royal family.
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First Gambling Devices
Buddhist texts mention Indians gambling with nuts as dice as early as 300 BC. Apart from being fond of dice, Indians developed a taste for gambling on animals. At first, ram and cockfights were all the rage which was followed by the more sophisticated horse racing later. What is interesting is that while Europeans are generally given credit for developing certain games of chance, most of the earlier versions of gambling devices had Indian symbols on them.
Further Progress
The 15th century witnessed the rise of legal gambling houses all across India. They were heavily regulated to make sure the games were fair and square so that the players would willingly submit their dues to the king. This was the beginning of the first gambling tax.
When the British introduced cricket to India in the 18th century, Indians fell completely in love with the game. Cricket paved the way for sports betting which flourished in the country until the British took over and passed the Gambling Act in 1867 which outlawed all games of chance. Although they couldn’t abolish the games which still went on in secret, India never looked favorably on gambling again.
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Present-day Gambling
The perspective of the Indian government on gambling is that it is the temptation that lures players to bet beyond their means, ruining their lives and their families. India’s 29 states and seven Union territories have the authority to decide whether to legalize gambling or not. Each state has a different legislative council and even though most of them do not support it, they do allow some forms of it, such as betting on horse races and the lottery. Since gambling restrictions are still in effect to a large extent, many have turned to online options and can choose from some of the best online casinos for India to scratch that itch. Almost 40% of internet users in the country have admitted to spending some of their time playing online casino games with no particular intention of earning large sums of money, but just to have fun and pass the time.
The history of India, which is almost 4000 years long, is brimming with amusing anecdotes of gamblers winning and losing in their favorite games. However, the future might not have as much room for such stories, since the gambling ban is still in effect. The Indian government still doesn’t trust its people to use their own judgment and roll the dice deciding their own fate. If the rules should ever change, the casino industry will be able to boost the Indian economy to a great extent. The people will enjoy their games while the country reaps the benefits. Some would say, a win-win situation.

CASINO GAMES:

There are a number of different online casino sites open for Indians to play on in 2020. With enticing welcome bonuses, a huge library of games including live casino games, more players are signing up now than ever!
However, many online casinos go beyond just a website and offer dedicated mobile apps that allow you to enjoy all features of the online casinos on the go! Check out the best online casino websites for India in 2020!
#1 – LeoVegas’ App
LeoVegas is one of the biggest online casinos in the world and contains a huge number of casino games. You can play Blackjack, Roulette, Slots, live casino games, and more on the online casino.
The LeoVegas app allows you to access more than 1,000 casino games offered by the online casino. Both Android and iOS users are covered as there are dedicated apps for both the operating systems. The user interface is designed to provide a simple and enjoyable experience for all players.
#2 – Betway’s App
Betway is one of the biggest names in the world of online casinos and betting. The site not only offers a huge collection of games in its full-fledged online casino but also offers really great odds on sporting events around the world with a great welcome bonus for new players.
The Betway app allows you to stay in touch with your adventurous self on the go and gives you access to all the games provided on the online casino. Some of the features that make the app great are its small size and classification system that lets you seamlessly switch from its three modes – Betway Casino, Beway Vegas, and Betway Live Casino.
#3 – Casumo’s App
Casumo is a modern online casino with a focus on providing a clean and enjoyable user interface to its players. In terms of game selection, Casumo does pretty well too, and provides tons of different online casino games for you to enjoy.
In keeping up with the philosophy of offering its players one of the best online casino experiences, Casumo also has a dedicated app that can be used to play all the different games offered on the site. Some of the key features of the app include a personal dashboard, automatic notifications, and easy depositing and withdrawal functions right from the app itself!
#4 – Dafabet’s App
Dafabet is one of Asia’s largest online casino and sportsbook. With sponsorships with reputed teams like Celtic FC and Fulham FC, Dafabet is a legit operator that provides an excellent casino and betting experience to players all over Asia including India.
Along with offering an awesome website that is completely responsive, Dafabet also has dedicated apps for both Android and iOS users that allow you to stay in the middle of the action always. The apps have an extremely user-friendly interface and are updated regularly to ensure the app is always fresh and secure!
Online casino apps are changing the game!
Online casinos are rising in popularity in India and since they are regulated by worldwide licenses like MGA, they’re transparent, fair, and legal! A common misconception for online casinos and their bonuses is that they need to be claimed on the website. In almost all cases, it’s possible to download the app from App Store or Google Play, sign up, and grab the welcome bonus straight from the app.
Get in touch with the speculative side of your personality with these amazing online casino apps today!
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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by sircore to gtaonline [link] [comments]

(PART THREE) [WP] Oddly enough, reincarnation is simply a character creation screen on an old arcade machine. Being a gamer in your past life, you jokingly input the konami code, which to your surprise makes a message pop up saying: "Developer Mode Unlocked."

PART TWO | PART FOUR
Bullets ricocheted off the building I was levitating next to. On the ground, a sizeable police and SWAT force congregated, I could even see the army being called in.
In just a few short minutes, things would go absolutely mayhem. Having calmed down a little, now that Smith was dead, I pondered my next move, but not before being hit with a few of the bullets being shot at me.
The projectiles lodged themselves in my body, but given my invincibility, I just shrugged them off and they fell to the ground.
I had to do something and I had to do it fast, nobody likes to be dominated, especially not by a toddler still wearing his diapers.
I flew away in rapid fashion, reaching speeds that weren't visible to the naked eye. I stopped at a faraway rooftop and metamorphosed into a young businessman in his early thirties. Shapeshifting is just one of the cool things that I can do, but it takes up a lot of concentration and energy. It's not just something I can invoke out of thin air. This was my first time doing it and I was more than pleased with the results.
I was in great physical shape, lean and sinewy, just the way I like it. My nose became aquiline, my cheeks hollow and my hair was tousled in a brownish complexion.
Coincidentally, I also got a briefcase with the package and although nothing was inside, it was a nice touch. It completed the cliche of the persona I wanted to take.
Sitting on the roof of an unnamed building, I thought a lot about how to proceed from here on out. It wasn't as easy as just going against the entirety of humanity with my cheat codes. Sure, I would win, but I would have no empire to rule, no subjects to boss around. Why do I even want to take over humanity? I avenged the death of my parents, why can't I go on living life as usual?
Those were sweet thoughts, laced with honey, but I knew that things weren't as easy. Where would I fit in? Who could understand the sorrow of an immortal being? Maybe all this was a mistake from the start, maybe I shouldn't have tinkered with the controls like that... Maybe...
I'm evidently a superior breed, just like humans are to plants and animals, so am I to humans and therefore, I deserve to be at the top of the food chain. Problem is, humans are quite resilient creatures and they don't bow down that easily, especially not to something alien as I was.
''I'm an alien!'' I uttered out loudly, but nobody seemed to notice, nobody seemed to care. I was all alone, without friends and with a lot of foes on my tail. Good thing they don't know about the shapeshifting, that will give me some leeway.
I got off the building using the stairs like any normal person and finding myself on the streets, it was now time to commence my study of humans.
First thing I needed was money, so I panhandled my way into ten dollars. It took only a few minutes as I devised a story about being stranded without a ride back home. Most people shrugged me away, but an elderly women was kind enough to produce a tenner. I thanked her and vowed not to kill any old ladies, at least not for now.
I made my way into a casino and sat at the BlackJack table. The minimum bet was five dollars and the maximum? Five hundred! I exchanged my money for two red chips worth five dollars each.
I bet five dollars and as the dealer was about to reveal the cards, I stopped time and took all the money I could find on the table. Than I went to all the other tables and did the same, only I wasn't covered in dough but in chips.
Realizing just how stupid all of this is, I dropped the chips on the floor and went out, turning time on again. I could only do it for about a minute or so and I was already tired, almost heaving at the door.
A man passed by asking me if everything was alright. I gave a polite nod, saying that I was fine.
''It was just a bad stomach cramp, sir! A charley horse of the bowels!''
I walked to the nearest bank, basked in the sunlight for half an hour or so and proceeded to stop time again.
This time, I went straight to the registers, pocketing all the money I could find, also pilfering any jewelry from the petrified customers. Who knows, maybe I'm a kleptomaniac or maybe I'm just bored out of my wits. Maybe being Godlike isn't as fun as it portends to be.
As I made my way out of the bank, time flowed again and I was rolling in cash. I had about fifty-thousand dollars in cash safely lodged in my briefcase and another thousand or so in bijouterie.
Enough for a hotel and a nice, warm bath, enough to cover the tracks of my first victim.
-----------
Anyone want part four?
submitted by innerknightmare to Innerknightmare [link] [comments]

The Gambler

As long as I can remember, I’ve had an issue with gambling. Lost every penny to my name at the tables, spent more time indebted to the House than I ever spent in one. I don’t know how to explain it. I only ever felt alive in the casino. The flashing, flickering lights, the resounding echoes of dice on red velvet and whiskey downed desperately, like water in the desert.
Nothing changed when I died; nothing important anyway. Same games, slightly different stakes. We gamble emotions now. Sensation. We play cards or craps for the worst ones, like exchanging shitty cigarettes. For the other lost souls and I, it’s a familiar dance.
We’re all of the same ilk here. Not benevolent enough for heaven. Not wicked enough for hell. Just dead. Just here. Gambling and scrounging and doing whatever we can to feel alive. Sometimes other things pass around. Lotsa us call ’em demons, but I ain’t too sure. I’m pretty sure they’re just the dealers. Just a few folks being a little less screwed by the House. I’ve seen a few around, but they had no business with me. They just wanna find the fellow on their list and bring ’em to the Grand Casino. Won’t take no one else, won’t hear nothing else.
The Grand Casino. That’s where you can win big. I’ve heard stories of folks leaving with ‘happiness’, ‘joy’ and ‘pleasure’. Hell, heard one guy even gambled his way back to the world of the living. ‘Course I never met someone who won, or even returned from the Grand Casino, short of them dealers. And them? They keep tight lips. Don’t say much one way or another, whether folks bash the place or praise it. ‘Magine its part of the House rules. Now, I’ve already told ya’ I’m a simple man. I like sleep, like booze and like gambling. Never turned down a chance at any of ’em. So when the dealers came a’calling my name, you know, I didn’t put up no resistance.
The lessons I learned in life, I carried with me when I got here. And one of those lessons? The House ain’t perfect. Damn near it, but it ain’t. Sometimes it puts a man behind the table with a heart too soft to help a man hang himself. After a while, you can see it in ’em. Its in their eyes of course, but its really at their lips. Had one fellow, when I was alive, would mouth numbers for me to bet on. Never any big wins, but enough to put a hot meal in me. My dealer now kinda reminds me of that kid.
So my dealer. Hes tall, talking twice my height and I’m a good six foot. Kinda transparent and warpy, like your six drinks in looking at the world through a puff of a cig. Sometimes its got features. Like a real pretty lady one minute. Then an upright lion. Swore it looked like my Pa at one point too. I followed where it led, no use in wasting time. At first I didn’t say nothing. Their kind never answer questions anyways. But I ain’t never been good at silence. Makes my skin crawl all jittery like. Think that’s why I liked to hang by the slots. Never quiet there.
“So whats waiting for me over at the Rising Sun?” I smile as I ask. Its what me and a few others would call the good casinos, or the bad ones, dependin’ on your feel. The ones that made you feel like God, all powerful and shit with enough money in your lap to hide your excitement as some sexy lass nibbles at your ear. Same places where you’d crash hard, harder than anything else, hard enough that you don’t even feel your broken arm when security chucks you out ’cause your souls in so many pieces you sure it ain’t ever going back together. And then your sittin’ there in your own piss and stench, trying to find the energy to crawl into the road and end this goddamn catastrophe while wondering why. Why couldn’t you just take your winnings and go? Whys it always one more game, but it never is? I had a million dollars that night. A million. Owner of the House came out, congratulated me. He waved the dealer off and smiled.
“Double or nothing?” The fucking monster. I was hot, hot off a win, throat burning from a fireball, cheeks flush at the touch of impossibly soft lips. Should have said no. But goddamned if I’m anything but who I am. And who I am is a gambler. “Listen. The only way to win is not to play. Drink nothing he gives you. Eat nothing as well. It will only dull you to reality. He can only take what you willingly give. Give nothing. And do not speak of this exchange,“ the dealer entity’s voice pulls me back. We’re standing in front of a large, ornate door, but its not attached to anything. They’re looking down at me, staring something fierce. “What’s your name?” Don’t know why I ask, but it comes to mind. Feels important.
“I am Eleador. I must leave now. I have another to retrieve. Heed my words or do not, but share not what I have given you.” They pull away as they speak, but I grab their arm. Or try to. Feels like a real thick fog, almost water, but not quite. “Thank ya, Eleador. Yousa good fellow.” Thinking back, there wasn’t no reason for me to go through that door; I mean, no reason at all. I knew the Devil was sitting there, just waiting for me. Then there was the dealer’s warning. Eleador, goddamned if my gut don’t drop even now thinking of ’em, told me the game was rigged. I just…had to keep playing. I opened that door to the prettiest palace of sin. Men and women strutting about, some carrying trays of sweets whose very appearance made my mouth water. Others embraced freely on satin furniture as they sipped strange liquids from intricate glasses. Despite the resounding bell that rings when I open the door, none of them notice me. Or if they do, they don’t show it, going about their business completely unfazed. Entranced, I stepped forward. A hand, heavy, falls on my shoulder from behind. A man stands where the door once was. “Welcome. We’ve been waiting for you.” His stern tone, combined with the forceful way he leads me towards a table, makes it clear I have no choice. He’s the only one dressed in such a business-like way; in a room of lace bikinis and well adorned loincloths, his modestly tailored suit is off putting.
“Well, ah, sir, guess I should be saying it’s an honor. But where am I? And who’re you?” The man plants me firmly in a plush armchair. “You’re in a casino. My casino. And we’re going to gamble now, aren’t we?” My lack of response seems to upset him. “I have something you want.”
I feel it in my gut. I don’t like this man. Reminds me of the fellow that used to spit at me when I slept off Raeborne Avenue. “Sir, I ain’t a wanting man. Don’t need nothing, don’t want nothing.” He slams and open palm onto the table, spreading a mess of cards as he does. “You wanna play. And I do too. I suggest you make yourself comfortable. Take a drink. Grab a snack. Figure out if you’d rather live again or go to heaven. Or maybe something else. Whatever you want. I just want your afterlife. Your loyalty and servitude. Your choice of game.”
Eleador said the only way to win is not to play. But someone has to win every now and then. No one would play if not. I can be the one. I have to be the one.
“I don’t want nothing. But I’ll tell you what. I’ll play a game of blackjack with you. You win and you get whatever it is you want. I win, you do a friend of mine a favor. Deal?” There ain’t nothing for me in life and heaven never sounded too sweet. But I know a soul needing salvation.
The fellow blinks hard a few times, but nods. “A drink to seal it?” “No sir, I, uh, know better than that,” I don’t know how else to phrase it, but that certainly wasn’t the right way.
“Fine. I’ll tell you what I want if I win. The name of the fool who ruined my game. So, lets play, you lucky fucker”. Things changed. Where once there were others, now we are alone. A dim lime light flickers above us. The man, he ain’t no man. He’s a beast with hooves and fur and the like. I looked in it’s eyes, at least two of the myriad that pocked his flesh and knew I didn’t have a chance in hell.
But I still played. Gambled with something that wasn’t mine. And I lost, and I broke a promise that, for once, I intended to keep. I tell this tale to you as I tell it to others who wander the Wasteland. Maybe you’ll listen ’cause I know for damn sure they don’t. I don’t wish this feeling on nobody, this pain and ache and sadness. I ain’t content with this limbo no more. I worry ‘bout Eleador every moment. Worry ‘bout what the Devil did to ‘em.
Don’t make my mistake, lads. I didn’t learn in life and I didn’t learn in death. I only learned when it was too late. Don’t play the odds. Not once, not ever. The House will put its claws in you and never let go.
But if you do, if you gamble at the Grand Casino and you find yourself on a winning streak, see if you can set Eleador free.
I don’t wanna know what that monster did to them.
submitted by breezysks to nosleep [link] [comments]

Common questions about a COVID-19 infected market answered

What is BBOZ, BEAR and BBUS?
They are similar to an ETF but instead of exposing you to shares in companies, they expose you to bets on the market; and the bets are for the market to drop. If the market goes down, BEAR goes up the same amount and BBOZ goes up twice as much. However if the market goes up, the inverse happens but worse. The "bets" you are exposed to cost money to make so when the market goes up, you lose the inverse, you lose the cost of bets and you lose the management fees (over 1%).
Should I sell, buy or hold?
Imagine you get 16 in blackjack at the casino. There are books and people that will tell you to hit no matter what, see what the dealer has, count all the cards dealt before it, double down, split etc. No one knows what the next card will be and if they do, they have probably been cheating. At the end of the day, if you play blackjack long enough and are not a professional player, you will lose your money. Similar for the stock market, if you have money in the market long enough and are a retail investor, you will make money. If you see my other posts, I have been saying "sell" for weeks. It's too chaotic to make a call now, there is no precedent for what is happening. I am not recommending anything at the moment as it is too hard to tell what tomorrow will bring.
Why is this ETF going up when it should be going down?
You are probably talking about an international ETF (like NDQ) that is unhedged to the Australia dollar. This means you are essentially holding another currency, like the USD. Since the AUD is dropping, you are making money because your holding is worth more now. Other international ETFs try to reflect movements in stock markets that are closed during the day in Australia. They rely on “futures” which are bets placed on what price companies will start trading at when their market opens.
Should I buy gold?
Gold used to be a reliable store of value as its price rarely changed. Over the past 15 years it has turned into another tradeable asset which means this question is the same as ‘should I buy Tesla?’.
Are there any guaranteed safe havens for my money where I will get decent growth?
I’m sure if there were, we would all be in there.
Should I change my super investment allocation?
Depends how old you are. If you are thinking about retiring soon, you probably shouldn’t have a risky investment profile. See the answer about buy, sell or hold.
What happens when I change my super allocation?
Most super funds have what’s called a “unit price” for their different investment profiles. E.g. Balanced unit price could be 25 and High Growth could be 50. If you had $100,000 in 100% Balanced, you would own 4000 units. If you moved to 100% High Growth, you would sell those 4000 and buy 2000 High Growth units. All of this happens behind the scenes, you usually just tell them what % you want of each investment profile.
What is happening? Why is everything so volatile?
The share price of a company listed on the stock market is a representation of its potential future earnings. In other words, how much money can that company make in the future? The massive swings we have seen is because of an uncertain future and robots. Robots (algorithms) perform ~80% of the trading done on the stock market with little human oversight. Humans set the rules and the robots follow them. When unexpected numbers are given to the robots, they immediately act on them and the effect is amplified as the new numbers those robots create are fed to other robots.
What is QE?
When the Australian Government needs money, it creates and sells bonds. A bond is essentially a loan; you give the Government money and it pays you this money back in the future with interest. Quantitative Easing is when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) buys these bonds from the Government. This does two things, it gives the Government money to spend things on and raises the price of the bonds because the more you buy of something, the more valuable it gets to others who don’t have it (e.g. toilet paper). Boomers love high bond prices since a lot of their retirement super is made up of bonds. But where does the RBA get its money from? It creates it out of thin air which can cause inflation.
Where can I find more information about COVID-19s effect on finance?
There is a Whirlpool thread that is dedicated to it. ABC Business is covering it well. Zero Hedge is covering it in detail with daily COVID and market updates. Not going to link it as it’s a controversial site with a lot of other junk. Erik Townsend is ramping up to almost daily COVID market updates on his MacroVoices podcast. Highly recommend, he has made a lot of accurate predictions about the virus and its effect on the market from back in Jan and is a financial expert.
None of this is financial advice, just my personal take on it all. Don't give me gold or other badges, reddit is a terrible website that I abhor visiting and your money is better spent elsewhere.
submitted by simonline-au to AusFinance [link] [comments]

Tips for Online Casino Players

Tips for Online Casino Players

https://preview.redd.it/xfxxv9rcpt451.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b759b1742b74411593c0dda6163469e7627e669a

After a long survey in the gaming environment and more specifically online gaming, we have identified a number of tips that you will need to make your game at online casinos enjoyable and above all more profitable than ever! It will therefore be wise for you to take a few minutes to read the tips and winning strategies that we are revealing to you here, before signing up for an online casino. Our advice will allow you to considerably extend your playing time and consequently improve your gaming experience at these online casinos which will hold no secrets for you and allow you to win a maximum of winnings!
Stay informed at all times
It is very important to know the game in which you are going to bet money. To do this, you will need to learn the rules of the game you are going to play, before you even start your games. It is not a question of rushing blindly into this jungle that is the Internet, flooded with very attractive online casino sites that will make you want to play directly and quickly.
It is indeed essential not to omit certain details linked to the games offered on the sites. These not to be overlooked details actually allow you to enjoy an optimal gaming experience and a better chance of winning big wins. It is therefore very useful for your future gaming experience, to take the time to read the articles, the rules and learn more about the online games that exist and that you might like, whether for slot machines. , video poker, digital roulette and all the other virtual games available today on these gaming platforms.
Don't go to any online casino
It is very important not to rush to the first online gclub casino that you meet, because, if these operators are more and more numerous, it will however be important not to confuse quantity and quality. So it will be really smart of you to poke around on the net and take the time to choose an online gaming operator that has a good reputation. Other selection criteria? Well try to turn to those who have been in the business for some time now, who offer the best payout rates to players, who use successful software providers, who offer the best bonuses, but also the latest games to success. These are certainly many criteria to take into account,
Find and don't let go of your ideal game
There are so many different kinds of online games that there is bound to be one concept those appeals to you more than another. It is therefore also important to choose the games you plan to bet on to pocket winnings and perhaps make ends meet while having fun.
We advise you, for example, to favor games like roulette, blackjack, craps or even baccarat which will allow you to easily and quickly optimize your chances of winning, even if the games which are most successful on this kind of platform remain slot machines and video poker.
Player reviews
Other players' opinions count for several reasons. Obviously it is always reassuring and useful to read what your peers have thought of their experience in this online casino but it is especially essential to do so because in order to increase your chances of winning and to “go home” pockets full of winnings based on your bets, you need to determine effective strategies when you play. To do this, the experiences and personal opinions of more experienced players are of great help. You can also find on our site a forum intended solely for this purpose.
Thanks to the exchanges that you can establish with the other followers of online casino, you can quickly understand and identify the inner workings and tricks of the games. The other members of the community and ourselves have been like you one day, and understand the need to be guided or enlightened during your first steps in e-casinos.
Start slowly
After having read a little and being well informed with professionals as well as other players you are ready to start! The world of online casinos is vast and you have before you a great adventure awaiting you. Hundreds of games with fantastic sets, more than real animations. We are doing everything to make your experience in online casinos a unique adventure.
Then we give you one last little tip, start slowly. Do not hesitate to play an hour or two in free version, in order to make your hand and master the rules of the games before betting real money.
Once you feel comfortable, wait no more: You are the dice!
Bonus = wager or wagering requirements
Many players enjoy playing online casino, because casinos offer welcome bonuses but also bonuses to practically all deposits if the player so desires. So it's great to receive a bonus but upon withdrawal will come surprises. When you agree to receive a bonus, you are obliged to comply with wagering conditions; this ranges from X20 to more than X40 bonus + deposit.
Example: You go to casino X which offers a 200% bonus on your deposit, you deposit 100 euros, you therefore receive a casino bonus of 200 euros, so on your player account you can play with 300 euros, in order to know the wagering conditions you must know the multiplier coefficient that the casino uses in our case the coefficient on 25:
100 (deposit) + 200 (bonus) = 300
300 (total balance) X 25 = 7,500
this means that to be able to withdraw, you will have to bet for an amount of 7,500 euros with the 300 euros in balance, this is quite possible and many players succeed, but when the player does not know these rules basics of bonuses, the element of surprise is never pleasant.
Maximum bet at online casino
Online casinos sometimes impose maximum bets, and this is to protect themselves because of the bonuses. Online casinos impose a maximum bet ranging from 30 to 50% of the deposit. So admitting that you win an interesting gain if during your gaming session you bet more than 30% to 50% of your initial deposit then your gain will be canceled by the casino, so be careful!
submitted by goshi2k7 to u/goshi2k7 [link] [comments]

With the familiar set of rules that apply to classic Blackjack and regular pip value of the cards, the player is granted with the option of doubling up on their wager after seeing the first two cards. To compensate for that, Double Up Blackjack also introduces the Push 16 rule, where both the hard and the soft 16 dealt to the dealer ends the game. Be sure to check the Double Down rules of every new blackjack variation you play to be sure. Split If the first two cards a player receives are the same (a pair), the player can elect to split the pair into two separate hands. To do so, place a second bet equal to the original to the side according to betting blackjack rules. Blackjack Options. The rules of blackjack allow players up to six options to choose from in any given hand situation, but usually the choice is either “hit” or “stand”. Choosing to stand is pretty straight forward – it means that you like your hand the way it is and have chosen to try your luck against the dealer’s hand. Blackjack betting and the dealer. To play, you must first make a bet by placing chips in the betting area in front of your playing position. The blackjack dealer then deals the cards, with two face-up cards in each playing position. The dealer also deals itself two cards – one face-up and one face-down. Blackjack is an automatic winner, except against another Blackjack, in this case the hand is a PUSH (also called a TIE or STAND-OFF). Bust If drawing additional cards by either the Player or the House results in a card total exceeding 21, that hand has “too many” and is considered to have Bust .

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