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Most shocking nonqualifiers of the last decade according to betting odds

I've checked the archives of the website and went through the betting odds before each contest from 2009 to 2018. Here are the nonqualifiers that had the lowest odds to win the final aproximately one week before the date of the grand final, i.e. about three days before the first semi-final.

Rank Year Country Artist Song Average odds to win the final
1 2015 Finland Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät "Aina mun pitää" 16
2 2010 Sweden Anna Bergendahl "This Is My Life" 16
3 2011 Norway Stella Mwangi "Haba Haba" 20
4 2010 Croatia Feminnem "Lako je sve" 25
5 2014 Israel Mei Finegold "Same Heart" 33
6 2013 San Marino Valentina Monetta "Crisalide (Vola)" 33
7 2014 Belgium Axel Hirsoux "Mother" 34
8 2018 Belgium Sennek "A Matter of Time" 40
9 2011 Turkey Yüksek Sadakat "Live It Up" 40
10 2015 Iceland Maria Olafs "Unbroken" 40

As we can see the three nonqualifiers that were considered the biggest favourites before the contest are all Scandinavian acts. PKN might not have been fan favourites but they had odds as low as 16 and were predicted to place 6th in the grand final of 2015. Anna Bergendahl was also predicted to place 6th in the grand final in Oslo and was considered a safe qualifier. However, she narrowly missed the final by just 5 points and became the only Swedish act in the history of Eurovision not to pass the semi-final. The bookies predicted a top 10 position in the final for Norway's Stella Mwangi but her journey ended in the first semi-final in Dusseldorf where she placed 17th. Interestingly, these three songs would've all qualified if only the televotes had been taken into account.
Another point worth mentioning is that two of the most shocking nonqualifiers come from the same semi-final. In 2010 Sweden and Croatia were considered big favourites by both fans and bookmakers but ultimately crashed in the semi-final of death.
We also see that most of the songs that made the list were either heavy fan favourites (Israel 2014, San Marino 2013, Iceland 2015) or controversial songs (Finland 2015, Belgium 2014). High expectations for Turkey in 2011 can be explained by the fact that they had qualified every year before and placed 2nd with a rock entry in 2010.
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The Grand Final of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest will take place tomorrow night. In this article, we will share the current betting odds for the final of this year’s contest in Copenhagen. Calm Before The Storm. Tomorrow the rehearsals for Eurovision 2014 kick off, it’s when it all becomes very real and very interesting. Up until tonight most people we have no idea what the staging of each country will look like, so now is the last chance for a blind vote before the staging videos begin to influence the betting. Eurovision Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet. The second semi-final of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest will take place tomorrow night. In this article, we will share the current betting odds for the second semi-final of this year’s contest There isn't a specific bookmaker who is officially 'the best' when it comes to betting on the Eurovision Song Contest, but the ones who tend to offer a wide variety of novelty markets are Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair. Be sure to check out the Eurovision odds on our dedicated page right here in the build-up to the competition.

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