AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis | Australian Dollar

Pillars of Forex Trading

Pillars of Forex Trading
Pillars of Forex Trading
Forex trading is the act of speculating on the foreign exchange market, with the intention to make more money profitably. Forex trading in otherwise said as FX trading, foreign exchange trading or currency trading. Let’s see the pillars of forex trading here. The pillars are listed down as,
  1. TRADE ENTRY STRATEGY
  2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
  3. SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
  4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
  5. RISK MANAGEMENT
  6. MONEY MANAGEMENT
  7. TRADE EXIT STRATEGY

TRADE ENTRY STRATEGY
The foremost thing to talk about trading strategies is, you need to know the simple methods. Many traders do not even realize what their strategy is or cannot easily define it, because they are trying to bring a bunch of different messy ways together best forex broker in uae. This will put the trader in trouble and trader will find difficulty in making money. So having a plan for the entry would help to succeed.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a process of evaluating security to assess its intrinsic value, by analyzing economic, financial, and qualitative and quantitative factors. Understanding why the currency is moving and what makes it move is called fundamental analysis. The currency market is different from the stock market in fundamental analysis. Even though the currency market and stock market involved in the analysis and understanding of the intrinsic value, the approach, and methodology in calculating and concluding the intrinsic value varies.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Sentiment analysis denotes the risk appetite that occurs in the financial market. Traders are more keen on taking a risk which leads them to have higher returns which carry great risk. But without any risk traders cannot see any high returns forex trading uae legal. In Forex, Sentiment analysis plays a specific role among all the other pillars. It clearly makes us understand which currency is in demand and thus understands the flow of capital from one currency to another. Here are 4 common indicators that examine the sentiment risk in the market.
  1. Equities market (stock market)
  2. The commitment of Traders report
  3. Volatility index
  4. Bonds spread
When the market environment is risk-on, high yield currencies, AUD, NZD, and CAD gets strengthen, whereas JPY becomes weak. On the contrary, when the market environment is risk-off, JPY is strengthening, while AUD, NZD, and CAD become weak.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis stands as a third pillar. It is frequently discussed in forex trading. Technical analysts believe that analyzing the movement of prices is more significant to make trading with top forex brokers in uae. Once a trend has aroused, future price movement is likely to follow the direction of the trend than going in the opposite direction. The chart patterns are based on the notion that history tends to repeat itself, and technical traders leverage on this information to trade the market.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk management expresses more than just deciding your trading. It includes how you manage your risk exposure, dealing with the market, protecting your capital, and how you manage your profit potential based on your risk profile. In Risk Management, control of your downside so that the upside will be at no risk. Risk management differs from individual to individual. Focusing on different key components of risk management would help. In short, risk management teaches us, how to make the potential of your capital to blot without losing the market.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Money management is the process of saving, investing, spending, and overseeing the capital usage of an individual or group. In two ways money management can be practiced to succeed. A trader can take many frequent small stops and try to get profits from the few large winning trades, a trader can choose to go for many small gains and take infrequent large stops. Each and every trader in this universe must follow some money management skills to succeed
TRADE EXIT STRATEGY
Having an exit plan before entering is important. Traders spend hours developing their entry strategies but then they end up in taking bad exits. Normally, people lack effective exit planning. Entering is an easy part, but where you get out determines your profit or loss.
CONCLUSION
The above mentioned are the important pillars with each having a different role in forex trading. Altogether can make you achieve success in forex trading when followed with an aim to gain profit.
submitted by alfafinancials5 to u/alfafinancials5 [link] [comments]

In Search of the Best Yen Pair

This will be a wall of text, but with pictures! I'm going to attempt to analyse USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and ZAJPY. I'm really interested in your feedback, especially from the guys who are good with the supply/demand levels :)
A thought occurred to me while I was regretting eating McDonalds for dinner last night. When there are strong directional moves by one pair, associated pairs and crosses will move in the same way - especially if that move is the result of only one of those currencies strengthening or weakening. Often however, its the associated pairs that will offer a cleaner technical setup.
The purpose of this post is to identify a Yen pair that has the greatest upside potential in the event of the Yen weakening again. It might take a long time to get back up to the highs, so I want a currency with a really good outlook. If you think there is a strong case for a continued move to the downside, I really want to hear it as well.
Likewise on the last big leg up in USD/JPY, when we cracked 100 and then some, I actually lost out a little bit by spreading my trades across EUJPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY - the rationale being that if the Yen weakened rapidly, the risk trades would do the best against them rather than the dollar (which normally has quite muted moves whenever the Yen weakens rapidly). Except in that case it was the dollar strengthening, and the Yen fought back against the Euro and Pound.
So I got thinking: one of these pairs must have the cleanest technicals, the simplest fundamentals, and offer the best risk:reward potential for a trade to the upside - especially since it's the BoJ in 2 days.
I'm going to go through the suspects one by one, and just do some basic technical and fundamental analysis. I will only be using trendlines, fibonacci levels and the 50 & 100D SMAs.
For the purpose of simplicity I have ignored price data pre mid-2012, as most of those levels are gone now. Except the one we're at now - in almost all pairs the current level has been a significant pivot, dating back a few years.
Starting with /forex's most hated pair:
USD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/W8DRrkU.png
Technicals 100 is once again a significant obstacle, and I expect sideways action between here and 96, if the selloff doesn't continue. The Yen might weaken again very sharply, but so also might the dollar. We have a fairly clear and convincing trendline break, and I'm regretting getting in long. We might have a low in place, but we also might not. We are currently supported at a critical level by the 100DMA and the 0.23 fib, as well as a known demand level. A break lower here targets 95 and then 93.50.
Fundamentals We will need a dollar rally as well as a Yen rout to climb quickly, and I'm unwilling to play only one and not the other. Without signs that the US will slow easing and Japan will at least keep it up, we do not have the fundamental driver to push very much higher.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is to be found here, in either direction. Long seems to be the way forward, but we need some convincing. Otherwise it's sell rallies into 100.
EUJPY
http://i.imgur.com/ETkvc23.png
Technicals If we're looking for the best technical setup for a long, we might have it here. We've spiked through this pair's most significant demand level, bounced off the 100DMA, and closed above the trend line. It's a fairly simple picture.
Fundamentals I am slightly concerned by the Euro's lacklustre performance against everything besides the dollar. EUGBP is down, EUAUD didn't add 200 pips in the last session, etc. That said, I think that the Eurozone is going to start impressing people soon, as long as they can avoid another sovereign debt crisis. Which they won't. It will happen and when it does it will suck this pair down the suck hole faster than USD/JPY ever could.
Trades The problem here is that the bottom of Friday's hammer is 280 fucking pips away. I don't know about you guys but I don't like setting stops 280 pips away, especially with limited upside potential right now. I would look for a higher low to form first before getting in long - maybe around 128.50.
A new Eurozone crisis, continued Yen strength and a break of Friday's low could send this pair screeching to a spike low of 115 in a matter of minutes, in my opinion.
GBP/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/gv5WVy5.png
Technicals Another good long tech setup. A Head and Shoulders pattern was broken and completed on Thursday, with a close above the trend line.
Fundamentals The UK economy is looking better than it has all year, and its recovery is looking set to overtake the Eurozone's. However, Mark Carney comes in next month and we might be staring down the barrel of more dovish MP. This could destroy Cable's fragile recovery, which is showing signs of weakness at a previous pivot level and significant fib.
Trades Going long here seems like the obvious choice. A stop would need to be quite wide, but below Thursday's low would probably be sufficient, as we could probably see Friday's low as a bizarre volatility spike that had very little to do with the Pound or the Yen. Mind you that is still 160 pips away, so either wait for a dip or keep your position size very small.
AUD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/EDZigYP.png
Technicals This is not a chart that screams, "go long", and it makes me worry about the other Yen pairs' upside potential. It could well be that the next significant move lower starts here, as the Aussie continues its collapse. Currently holding at the 50% fib and 200DMA, but any trendlines are long gone and we can expect price consolidation as long as we do not go lower.
Fundamentals China released a lot of bad data this weekend, some neutral data, and no good data. The Aussie and Kiwi underperformed against the USD this week, despite being given a massive head start. There is huge scope for further easing, and this currency is strictly in "sell rallies" mode. A gold and commodities recovery is the only thing that will save the Australian dollar.
Trades I don't like it either way. As has been said on this sub before: what a c*nt of a pair.
NZD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/5pEnfhq.png
Technicals An even uglier picture than AUD/JPY, but we have spiked off the 0.38 fib and closed above the 200DMA, if that means anything. A break of Friday's low could get extremely bad very quickly, but this pair isn't known to really motor.
Fundamentals The Kiwi actually performed worse than the Aussie this week, closing at the lows and through significant support, while the Aussie staged a late rally. It's hard to be bullish either of these currencies. This is purely due to the commodities slump. Despite tightening MP, the Kiwi looks particularly vulnerable as the entire bloc collapses.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is here, but if Yen strength continues then selling a rally into 77.50 looks like a good play.
CAD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/AdcnwkO.png
Technicals 97.50 is the bull/bear line here and we're well through it, so we would need a close above here to be really bullish. Price bounced off the 0.23 fib and 100DMA, and 97.50 once again offers the most serious upside resistance. A break lower here targets 91.50
Fundamentals The Canadian dollar staged a late rally on Friday on the back of ridiculously good employment data. USD/CAD is now at descending channel support and the 50% fib of the recent rally, so I would be careful either way. Otherwise I don't know much about the Canadian fundamental picture, but I believe they're happy to see Carney go.
Trades Not really sure what to do here. If anyone is more familiar with this pair, let's hear it. Otherwise I'm gonna stay out of this one.
CHF/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/4vvoI2o.png
Technicals CHF/JPY was actually the biggest gainer in % terms when Japan first announced its QE program. Since then it hasn't done much. Trendline is gone but we've bounced off the 100DMA, which has provided support before. We need above 105 to get really bullish here. There is a very long broken wedge which technically targets 93.
Fundamentals I expect the Swiss Franc to weaken if the stock market recovers from here. If it doesn't, and we see a continued decline in stocks, the Yen will strengthen more than the Franc, so we'll probably head down some more. Overall it doesn't look good for this pair. If USD/JPY recovers sharply, USD/CHF probably will as well, so gains here will be muted. If on the other hand gains are driven by fundamental Yen weakening in response to more QE, would could see a large move to the upside.
Trades Buy on a break and hold of 105 only.
ZAJPY
http://i.imgur.com/SYiZZpd.png
I just put this up for the lolz. Something has gone horribly wrong for South Africa, so if you think the Aussie's had it bad...
Technicals A break of the 50% fib gives us real cause for concern here. If the Rand continues to weaken as a result of gold weakening, we could see the rally fully retraced. Expect consolidation.
Fundamentals The Rand performed worst of all the commodity currencies, as gold continues to slide (it recently broke out of its consolidation to the upside, only to crash on Friday to confirm a break lower again, targeting $1350). When USD/JPY collapsed on Thursday, USD/ZAR barely blinked. I've been trading it to the upside on dips, but 10.00 seems to be capping moves for now. If gold does not recover sharply, the South African economy is going to suffer very badly.
Trades F that noise. Buy USD/ZAR on a break of 10.25, or sell it on a break out of consolidation.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for July 16, 2020 by FXEmpire AUD/USD Technical Analysis for July 15, 2020 by FXEmpire AUD/JPY - GBP/USD -EUR/USD and more: Forex Market analysis for the upcoming week Forex Fundamental Analysis  MORE sellside on NZD & AUD??? Forex Technical Analysis & Fundamental Review of pairs AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY 16th July 2017

AUD/JPY: How FX traders will know that the “trade war” has started in earnest Matt Weller, CFA, CMT June 26, 2018 12:24 PM Another day, another round of trade war tweets drawing the attention of traders. JPY's current outlook score of 45 shows that the long-term outlook is bearish, which means that traders with a long-term trading timeline will be looking to short JPY on rally. The latest 10 economic indicators released out of Japan have added -1 to the total Fundamental Outlook score of JPY. AUD/JPY Forecast Fundamental Analysis | Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen The Australian AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index for March was reported at 53.7. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index for February, which was reported at 44.3. Fundamental Analysis. Fundamental Analysis is a very important tool that professional traders use in Forex trading. It is the careful study of the economic, political, fiscal and social factors that affect the value of the currency of a country. Although most Forex traders use technical analysis to place their trades, more sophisticated and successful traders tend to increase their success rate by using fundamental analysis in their trading. You can find out more about fundamental analysis in this article and learn how to conduct and apply it for more profitable trading.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis for July 16, 2020 by FXEmpire

The Australian dollar has failed to continue rallying again, as the 0.70 level has been extraordinarily resilient as far as resistance is concerned. ... Fundamental Analysis ... USD/JPY Technical ... AUD JPY takes the bids near 75.13, up 0.44% on a day, during the early Wednesday. The pair recently surged to the highest in over a monthly amid a broad rise in the Australian dollar. You were told from the start you needed Forex Fundamental Analysis to trade profitably. You were lied to. Here is why. Blog for this Video - Be the first to join Top Traders Insiders!! https://t.me/toptraderwaitingrooming-soon (150 spots available) ----- Free Exclusive Content: http://lnkh.... AUDJPY Today H1, Analysis, Forecast Updates, analysis and trading ideas about the market on H1 time frame #forex#gold#audjpy.