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Augur, and the space time continuum

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/ I am the grand son, of this grand, old, man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman I am perhaps the longest living descendant of an unbroken chain of criminals and explorers on the planet, and I have some new ground to break to give those great men a complex.
My father is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story before telling my I had left a bread-crumb trail of crime to my door.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit.
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to Augur [link] [comments]

I think the answer is yes. I cant post on the subs about decentralized censorship resistant tech, because the tech is censoring my words by judging the age of the account as the validation test for their right to stay the words on the internet. If that isnt proof, read more.

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/ I am the grand son, of this grand, old, man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman I am perhaps the longest living descendant of an unbroken chain of criminals and explorers on the planet, and I have some new ground to break to give those great men a complex.
My father is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story before telling my I had left a bread-crumb trail of crime to my door.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit.
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to AWLIAS [link] [comments]

My matrix fan non-fiction

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/ I am the grand son, of this grand, old, man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman I am perhaps the longest living descendant of an unbroken chain of criminals and explorers on the planet, and I have some new ground to break to give those great men a complex.
My father is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story before telling my I had left a bread-crumb trail of crime to my door.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit.
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to thematrix [link] [comments]

Austrians Economists Can Be Hilariously Wrong

EDIT: Apparently the first line caused some confusion. It was a joke. Also the title should read "Austrian Economists". I'll take my lashing now.
In honor of Donald Trump officially becoming the worst president of all time I thought I should post an R1 of a horrible article to lift spirits. The article I found to fit this desire was an egregious piece by the esteemed Robert “Krugman Slayer” Murphy talking about the Efficient Market Hypothesis( henceforth shortened to EMH). And it’s bad. Besides the obvious head scratching nature of an Austrian criticizing an economic theory that states that the market is always right the article get’s a lot of stuff wrong.
Please Note: This R1 is not meant to be a particularly through defense or critique of the EMH. Rather I will be pointing out that the things that Murphy asserted about the EMH are insufficiently defended. That being said let the shit show begin
Krugman Section
There isn't much of argumentative substance in this part of the article, which is odd coming from the ContraKrugman guy, but there was one paragraph that I thought showed Murphy has a tenuous grasp on what EMH is.
This same problem exists when it comes to the EMH. In its weakest form, it simply means that new information tends to get incorporated quickly into stock prices, meaning that there can't be any obvious arbitrage opportunities lying around (since someone would have exploited them already). However, the most fanatical EMH advocates come close to saying that financial bubbles are literally impossible.
Most of that is true. Murphy is absolutely correct when he talks about the differences between the strong and weak forms of EMH except for when he says that some argue “financial bubbles are literally impossible”. “Impossible” implies that in some sense the thing that we are talking about exists. When I say it is impossible to flap my arms and fly that makes sense because flying exists. What hard EMHers would argue is not that financial bubbles are impossible it is that they don’t exists. Here is an example of Fama making the claim.. In other words, to use the word impossible implies that there is some sense in which bubbles are a thing that could happen but hard EMH defenders would say that bubbles literally don’t exists not that they can’t happen. It’s possible this was a slip of the tongue by Murphy but else where he seems to not understand EMH several times in the article so I think this is a fair criticism.
Lucas Section
In reference to an article written by Robert Lucas, Murphy says
Lucas's arguments here are typical in this debate. He offers a seductive mixture of assertion and non sequitur to make his case. First, the EMH is itself under dispute, so it hardly helps to cite the EMH and its implications. (This is akin to a Christian quoting the Bible to an atheist to prove the authority of Scripture.)
Firstly, Lucas was not defending the EMH as Murphy claims. Instead he was arguing that the assertion that economic models should have predicted the financial crisis. He mentions the EMH only to point out that if we did have models that could “that forecasts sudden falls in the value of financial assets” that it wouldn't prevent the crash. The EMH implies that it would simply move whatever crash occurred backwards in time. You can disagree with Lucas's characterization of reality in that passage but Murphy instead disagreed with a non existent defense of the EMH. The EMH was an assumption in his passage; not the thing that was being defended.
Now, in what sense has it "been known for more than 40 years" that it's impossible to predict sudden falls in asset values? Didn't Mark Thornton and others warn us that the housing bubble was too good to be true several years before the crash? What more could an Austrian cynic do to disprove the EMH, than to predict that "the market" was all wrong when it came to housing prices, risk premiums, and so forth? Investors who heeded the warnings of Thornton and others got out of the stock market, didn't buy houses to flip in 2005, and, otherwise, managed to outperform other people who were caught up in the euphoric boom. If that's not "beating the market," what is?
And now it becomes clear why Murphy is criticizing the EMH. Because if it were true Austrians would have prevented the crisis! This passage is silly nonsense. Firstly the EMH says that “existing share prices change to incorporate and reflect all relevant and generally known information”. That Mark Thornton “predicted the crash” holds no relevance to whether EMH is true because an Austrian Economists predicting a crash is not “generally known or relevant information”. They do it all the damn time. Like when Murphy made bets about inflation that never came true.
Notice, there is a flaw in Lucas's argument. He is saying that if an economist could reliably predict a crash in a week, then everyone would know it now and the crash would happen immediately. There are two problems here. First, an economist can accurately predict a crash, but it doesn't follow that everyone else will automatically follow suit. In the real world, some economists are bullish and some are bearish at the same time. So, which way is the market supposed to move?
In content, I think Murphy is right here. There are people like Nobel laureate Robert Shiller who make claims about bubbles all the time and recently Yellen seems optimistic. Macro is hard and it’s easy to find people going in every direction at once. However Murphy’s point in particular is that Austrians have predicted crashes and not been listened to which is laughable for self evident reasons.
The EMH fan would probably say, "Aha! That just proves how right the EMH is. We don't have any reason to suspect the market will go up or down, because the current price reflects all available theories and information." Yet, the market price will go up or down, showing that at least one forecaster was wrong. (The other one might have just been lucky, so we can't say for sure that his prediction was really correct in the grand scheme.)
But the fact that two predictions necessitate that at least one is wrong doesn't mean anything. Stocks are unpredictable by nature. “Generally available” information does not mean all information and it does not mean that everyone is going to agree on the direction of a stock. Virtually every economists that the average investor is better off with an index fund. It is possible to make money without inside information but generally you can’t. That doesn't mean the EMH is wrong.
The second major flaw in Lucas's neat little demonstration, is that he assumes the formula for an impending crash must be very time specific. But what if someone like Mark Thornton says, "This situation is unsustainable. Housing prices cannot continue to rise at these rates"? That is still an accurate prediction. It is definitely useful to investors, especially if the forecaster gives a broad period, within which the move will occur.
Murphy seems to contradict himself in this paragraph. Both Murphy and Lucas agree that in order for a prediction to be useful there needs to be a time frame given.
In this situation, where some forecasters make qualitative predictions, Lucas's quick argument falls apart. We are back in the conventional world, where different forecasters rely on different theories to make different recommendations. The investors who listen to the bad ones lose money, while the investors who heed the more accurate theories make money. You can "beat the market" if you invest based on more accurate predictions. Is this really that strange a concept?
No one would argue that. However Murphy seems to be under the impression that there are theories more accurate or useful then EMH which there aren’t (unless there is some behavioral voodoo weirdness involved but that goes beyond the knowledge of the author).
Wait a second. Lucas has now considerably weakened his defense. Earlier he said that beating the market was an impossibility; moreover, an impossibility that had been known for 40 years. Yet in his discussion of the falsifiable tests, he admits that there are departures from the theory. So, now we have Lucas himself admitting that the EMH fails in the microscopic particulars. I still maintain that it failed spectacularly in the recent housing bubble, as well as the earlier dot-com bubble (which many Austrians also called, before it popped). What would it take for Lucas to admit that the EMH isn't true?
No he hasn’t. The existence of the CUBA fund is a relatively minor thing. That doesn’t weaken almost any of the practical knowledge that EMH gives investors. Is there any situation where an investor should assume that the market isn't efficient? Sure. But those situations are few and far between.
Also, Murphy, maybe the reason that no one listened to ABCT Austrians yelling about impending doom is that ABCT is wrong.
Let's put aside Lucas's funny defense of Mishkin and Bernanke, which says they're very good at predicting economic conditions, except for those pesky financial disasters. Beyond that side splitter, Lucas is simply making stuff up in the excerpt above. Ben Bernanke, most assuredly, did not convey that he had any inkling of what lay ahead for the US economy. Watch this incredible compilation of Bernanke's consistent errors from 2005 to 2007, where at every stage he either failed to see the coming storm, or predicted that the trouble would soon end. Again, I ask Mr. Lucas, What would Bernanke have to say for him to be guilty of what his critics accuse? Would we have to have Bernanke on tape saying, "I am 100 percent certain that no financial crash will occur"? It seems Lucas has set the bar really low for our Fed chairman.
Murphy has his time line wrong. Bernanke certainly did not see the crash coming. But he absolutely thought a crash would come after the fall of Lehman Brother’s if he didn't act. On Page 261 of Courage to Act Bernanke wrote
“You have a neighbor, who smokes in bed... Suppose he sets fire to his house... You might say to yourself ‘I’m not going to call the fire department. Let his house burn down. It’s fine with me’ But then, of course, what if your house is made of wood? And it’s right next door to his house? What if the whole town is made of wood?”
This is either a convenient misremembering or something more insidious. But it certainly isn't correct.
Levine Section
Anyone familiar with the incredible precision — and experimental confirmation — of the forecasts of quantum physics should recognize the absurdity of Levine's analogy. It's a bit like comparing a Euclidean proof to a closing argument by Johnny Cochrane. A better analogy for Levine would be a bunch of particle physicists inviting you over to look at their super collider, and then calling you the next week to say they exposed you accidentally to a lethal dose of radiation.
This is just stupid. I don’t even know what to say. Murphy is actually denying that economic models are statistical in nature and then got to far into the physical analogy Levine used. Not that surprising since Murphy is squarely in the Mises/Rothbard mold of economists but a priori reasoning is not very useful especially for sufficiently complex topics. See section 4 for more information.
Siegel Section
Siegel is to be congratulated for his masterful stroke here. During the bubble, when investment bankers were earning multimillion-dollar bonuses, the defender of the EMH would have said, "It's crazy for an average investor to try to beat the market. Some of the brightest minds in the world have enormous computers and an army of mathematicians at their service, squeezing every ounce of mispricing from the market. Don't bother trying to compete with those experts. Put your money in an index fund instead."
Yet, after many Austrians (and others from different schools of thought) predicted that the market would crash, and that investors should get into cash, Siegel points to the monumentally incompetent investment bankers as proof of the wisdom of "the market."
First, to again point out how silly listening to Austrians hand wave about the end of the world, I present Peter Schiff being wrong for two hours.
Second, this is just 20/20 hindsight. Murphy is right in that obviously someone would be better off if they sold off a lot of stuff before the crash happened. The problem is that no one should actually listen to Austrians when they talk about most things but especially about crashes. Someone would definitely be better if they just invested in index funds rather than get consulted by RPM even if one of the crazy predictions came right every once and while.
The efficient-markets hypothesis comes in various forms. There is, indeed, a large empirical literature, in which Fama and others conducted falsifiable tests. However, as I hope I've demonstrated with the quotations above, in practice the efficient-markets hypothesis is actually a tautology, or a way of viewing the world. There's nothing wrong with using a priori mental frameworks to parse economic reality; indeed that is one of the defining characteristics of Misesian praxeology . However, as the quotes show, many of the EMH apologists think they're independently confirming the EMH, when, in fact, their goggles simply force all evidence into conformity with their presuppositions.
As I have shown the EMH is not just a tautology. There are two main parts to it, the impossibility of beating the market consistently and whether prices are objectively “correct”. The second part is harder to really determine but the first part seems absolutely correct. Murphy's main argument seems to basically be that Austrians aren't listened to and ergo EMH is wrong which would be correct if Austrians were worth listening to.
TL;DR Fama always get’s his pound of flesh. Murphy BTFO.
submitted by Jufft to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Options/Trading 106: Risk and Strategy (Part II-A)

Recommended reading (note, there is no 101):
Options/Trading 102: Past the basics
Options/Trading 103: The Premium
Options/Trading 104: The mechanics of buying options
Options/Trading 105: Risk and Strategy Part I
This is likely to be the last post on this subject. Thanks to character limits, I have to divide this into 2 posts. Here's the second half
If you've made it all the way here you should be equipped enough to move on to any of the countless sources of information out there.
Special thanks and shout-out to goppeldanger for inspiring me to write these.
Lastly, I want to emphasize a disclaimer: Please don't trade options based on what I've written. As you can see, this 5 part series was longish but does not do the justice that options deserve. I love options, but spent a considerable amount of time learning about them before trading. I have no problem admitting that I lost a lot of money and luckily got it back when I first started, at which point I became humble, lucky, wiser and thankful. The particular focus on these posts was on trading options, not hedging as was their original purpose. Trading options in the way I've discussed here has nothing to do with long term investing, but rather speculative gambling.
As we saw last time, there are many ways to profit from options. In addition of being able to bet on underlying price increasing/decreasing, options let you to bet on timing moves, the market's "fear", price movement indifferent from direction and more. They also let you be on either side these bets.
The most important thing to consider your strategy first, and decide which of these many factors you're actually betting on and remember to consider how all the moving parts work. Even if you successfully predict the outcome of any of the variables, it is entirely possible to lose the bet. The strategy you pick defines the risk you take. The strategy you pick will also let you limit the risk, even if it involves selling calls on expensive stocks. This is important, because it's easy to take a single metric/position and judge it: writing an AAPL call right now sounds like the most dangerous thing in the world. But if you already own 100 shares of it, writing the call suddenly turns into a very safe move. The difference between the two is whether we're evaluating a position or an overall strategy.
I'm also covering things outside of options, given that some options strategies involve things that aren't options. (Editor's note: for simplicity and scope, I will refer to an ETF/ETN/ETP and ET the alien as an ETF)
VIX
This probably deserves its own 5 part series, but I'll touch on it.
Affectionately known as the "fear gauge," the VIX simply a statistic which measures implied volatility for options on the S&P 500 index. The VIX is an extremely popular tool used by options traders - if you remember the Black-Scholes pricing model, the variables which make up an options premium are stock the price, time until expiration, interest rates and implied volatility - implied volatility being the only unknown variable built into premium. Even if it's an unknown variable ahead of time, it's quite easy to reverse engineer real time (google "options calculator").
The principle is simple: if people anticipate big moves in a diversified and historically successful index, they'll load up on options, increasing their demand, and subsequently their price. Typically, the anticipation is a bearish one (hence the fear). As such the VIX can be useful to get a general idea of what the market is feeling, and how much people are willing to pay to hedge their positions or bet on an impending swing. It's also unique because it's not an actual security that can be bought, instead it's a statistic with a ticker symbol and people can buy options for betting or hedging.
To be clear, you can't own VIX shares, but you can bet on its future price. And this is where some of the widespread confusion starts, by treating its options and ETFs the same way as regular options and stocks. On top of that, it doesn't help that there are a ton of ETFs related to VIX futures - a quick google search brought up VXX, VXZ, VZZB, XIV, XXV, XVIX, XVZ, ZIV, CVOL, VQT, SPLV, IVOP, SVXY, TVIX, TVIZ, UVXY, VIIX, VIIZ, VIXM, VIXX, VIXY. And these things are complicated. My favorite description of them: "They're derivatives, sometimes leveraged, of a future that is a forward expectation of a statistic that nobody can arbitrage." I had to read that a few times to get it.
Here's some key characteristics of the VIX:
Now let's take a look at VXX, an ETF which tracks the short-term futures for VIX:
Finally, leveraged VIX ETFs
Ok. I'm finished touching on the VIX subject.
tl;dr - Don't salivate over a graph and its apparent opportunity to get rich. Many moving parts.
And finally: Options/Trading 107: Risk and Strategy (Part II-B)
submitted by jartek to investing [link] [comments]

What do you think about the equity premium puzzle? Does it influence your thinking on stock/bond allocation?

Here's the Wikipedia article on it. Some quotes:
The equity premium puzzle refers to the phenomenon that observed returns on stocks over the past century are a few percent higher than returns on government bonds. It is a term coined by Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott in 1985. Economists expect arbitrage opportunities would reduce the difference in returns on these two investment opportunities to reflect the risk premium investors demand to invest in relatively more risky stocks.
...
To quantify the level of risk aversion implied if these figures represented the expected outperformance of equities over bonds, investors would prefer a certain payoff of $51,300 to a 50/50 bet paying either $50,000 or $100,000.
The puzzle has led to an extensive research effort in both macroeconomics and finance. So far a range of useful theoretical tools and numerically plausible explanations have been presented, but no one solution is generally accepted by economists.
The article discusses various proposed solutions to the puzzle, but none seem particularly convincing. Some economists even think that it's just a statistical anomaly:
The most basic explanation is that there is no puzzle to explain: that there is no equity premium. This can be argued from a number of ways, all of them being different forms of the argument that we don't have enough statistical power to distinguish the equity premium from zero:
A related criticism is that the apparent equity premium is an artifact of observing stock market bubbles in progress.
That's kind of a troubling thought, isn't it?
submitted by HrunknerUnnerby to investing [link] [comments]

How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained Spread Betting Arbitrage Opportunities Do Arbitrage Opportunities Still Exist in 2020? Very Cool Arbitrage Opportunity For Options Traders Simple Arbitrage Betting Strategy [Followers Q & A]

Arbitrage is a type of trade in which a security, currency, or commodity is nearly simultaneously bought and sold, in different markets. The purpose of arbitrage is to take advantage of the In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices.When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a (Source: Wikipedia) Put simply, when we apply Arbitrage to betting, it means taking advantage of different prices given by different bookmakers on the same event. The Overround. Before we place any Arbitrage bets we first need to understand the “Overround” that the bookmakers apply to all betting events. Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. By placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit. In the bettors' slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage Part 3: Arbitrage Opportunities is now available. Arbitrage Theory. Arbitrage betting involves placing multiple bets on the same event that combine to provide a guaranteed profit. Arbitrage with Bookmakers. When an agency offers betting odds for an event, the sum of the inverses of the odds will always sum to greater than one.

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How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained

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